Red Sox sign Corey Kluber

DeadlySplitter

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Somewhere the universe just sighed at the predictability of this deal from... like 6 weeks ago?

Well I hope he's still good! This rotation would have been amazing in 2015!
 

simplicio

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Wait, HEAVY discussions actually turned into a signing?

I was hoping for Cueto, but I'll trust the FO's evaluation of 37 year olds here.

What's the damage?
 

Ale Xander

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Why didn’t we sign him 5-8 years ago???

Greeting, Corey.

club option>>>>>player option

maybe they’re learning something
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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There was a year in fantasy football where I took guys who dropped in the draft for one reason or other. I took Edelman when he was starting the year with a suspension and other players who were injured or potentially questionable. Some of it turned out spectacularly well. Some of it didn't. The thing I learned is that you can do one guy like. You can't do multiple. Too many lottery tickets.

This really seems to be Chaim's strategy so far. I mean, if Kluber gave us a crazy home town discount because it has been a dream to play in Fenway before he retires, he pitched 160 innings last year and if we get anything like that out of him then this maybe turns into a steal. But like I said -- you can only do so much of this.
 

scottyno

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Bloom is all in this year on guys whose FIP outperformed their ERA last year
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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"Wish we had him two years ago." "We did." "Four years ago then."


I preferred Wacha, and even the idea of going full on youth movement, but even so, there is really nothing wrong with this deal at all (and I think he's a much better bet than Paxton). A situation where I don't think there was literally a single "bad choice" here. I hope we still allow Houck / Whitlock the chance to start before saying "they're certainly in the bullpen" and not giving them the innings to prove otherwise, but choosing not to is the only real potential of downside to this deal.

Someone truly hating this deal should only hate it because we chose Kluber and not spending more on someone else, not for whom he is. Should be a pretty decent bet for around 20-22 starts and an fWAR in the 2.0 range and if he sucks / gets hurt, he's gone and one of the kids moves up from minors / slides in from the bullpen.
 

Ale Xander

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Are they going to a 6 man rotation or does Houck or Whitlock go to bullpen? (Until Sale gets hurt)
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Speier says 1/10M with a club option.

View: https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/1608153322707423232


I know he's not all that inspiring, but for those concerned about where innings are going to come from, he did make 31 starts and threw 164 innings last year.
Assuming that Bloom is done? Or is he really now going to look to deal Pivetta and/or Houck? I still want Pivetta (expecting a better pitcher that can throw 160 innings) but I think Houck is officially expendable.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Are they going to a 6 man rotation or does Houck or Whitlock go to bullpen? (Until Sale gets hurt)
I think they go into spring training with everyone lined up to start, and then see where they're at by Opening Day (who's healthy, who's effective, etc). I can't imagine they're going to make any decisions before that point.
 

RG33

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The age doesn't bother me. If anything, they get younger swapping him out for Hill. I like that he throws strikes--only 20 BB in 164 IP last year. Put a plus defender at SS behind him and see what happens.
Yeah, was gonna say a similar thing. They basically replace Hill with Kluber, who in his first full year back from 3 injured seasons threw 164 IP (Hill threw 124), had an ERA+ of 84 (Hill was better at 98), and had a FIP of 3.57 (Hill was at 3.92).

All-in-all it feels like an upgrade, and if slotted properly as the 4th or 5th starter, will help the team in 2023.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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I'd characterize every deal this offseason as "fine" with the hypothetical exception of the Yoshida deal which carries a lot more boom (and bust) potential. Still waiting on anything to materialize from all the trade possibilities Bloom was silly enough to tease as if it were a guarantee that he would be making significant additions from that market.

A very tepid, risk-averse offseason so far that would make more sense to me with a stronger core in place and a bunch of blue chippers in Portland and Worcester ready to take Boston by storm. It has been a fill-in-the-gaps offseason for a team that needed gap-filling and then some. A lot rides on what we get from the Whitlock/Bello/Houck trio and what leaps may be taken (or players returned in trade) by our on-the-cusp guys like Mata, Walter, Murphy, Valdez, and maybe Raffaela and Lugo later in the summer.

Resolving the Devers situation and more clarity in the middle infield would help get over the feeling that we are just treading water. Still plenty of time for trades as well of course, but the risk aversion has me wondering what that may ultimately look like.

Anywho, I like the deal fine, Chaim has been able to squeeze value out of these kinds of deals.
 

RG33

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Assuming that Bloom is done?
I believe that consensus on this board is that Bloom was done about a month ago.

However, I think with the depth they have built up with SP and Bullpen, there is plenty of room for some roster moves (trades and FA) from here. I wonder if this even marks the last SP move — or if they could still sign Wacha to a reasonable deal and then move Pivetta / Houck in a bigger move.

I guess we’ll have to actually let the full offseason to play out in order to know! (Not directed at you)
 

moondog80

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Assuming that Bloom is done? Or is he really now going to look to deal Pivetta and/or Houck? I still want Pivetta (expecting a better pitcher that can throw 160 innings) but I think Houck is officially expendable.
I would definitely not rule out any deals.
 

joe dokes

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I think they go into spring training with everyone lined up to start, and then see where they're at by Opening Day (who's healthy, who's effective, etc). I can't imagine they're going to make any decisions before that point.
I think this is right. (And also have to consider who is adaptable to a different role).
Nevertheless, the demand (from fans and media alike) that there be an official declaration of The Starting Rotation and Each Member's Numeric Position In It is a rite of winter.
 

Ganthem

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I'd characterize every deal this offseason as "fine" with the hypothetical exception of the Yoshida deal which carries a lot more boom (and bust) potential. Still waiting on anything to materialize from all the trade possibilities Bloom was silly enough to tease as if it were a guarantee that he would be making significant additions from that market.

A very tepid, risk-averse offseason so far that would make more sense to me with a stronger core in place and a bunch of blue chippers in Portland and Worcester ready to take Boston by storm. It has been a fill-in-the-gaps offseason for a team that needed gap-filling and then some. A lot rides on what we get from the Whitlock/Bello/Houck trio and what leaps may be taken (or players returned in trade) by our on-the-cusp guys like Mata, Walter, Murphy, Valdez, and maybe Raffaela and Lugo later in the summer.

Resolving the Devers situation and more clarity in the middle infield would help get over the feeling that we are just treading water. Still plenty of time for trades as well of course, but the risk aversion has me wondering what that may ultimately look like.

Anywho, I like the deal fine, Chaim has been able to squeeze value out of these kinds of deals.
The time to take risk is when you have a bunch of minor leaguers on the cusp. Bloom needs to see what shakes out this season, which does not leave room for a ton of additions. I am also unsure of how signing Yoshida and risk averse happens in the same post.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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A lot of money committed to Jansen, Martin, and Kluber for this coming year; but they aren’t tied to any of these guys long term. One year deal with a club option is the Bloom ideal; I guess on the third try, Kluber was willing to take it. Seems like they have enough good arms on the staff to be competitive; how good they are seems likely to come down to the health and growth of Sale, Whitlock, Bello, and Houck.

Ultimately, this seems like a continuation of all the SP deals Bloom has done, hopefully we get a performance more like Wacha and less like Richards.
 

Devizier

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Seems to be the right move given where this team is at currently. He was (squinting) probably the best starter left on the market. The declining velocity isn't great but you could certainly see some kind of Jimmy Key-esque late career respectability there.
 

E5 Yaz

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One year deal with a club option is the Bloom ideal; I guess on the third try, Kluber was willing to take it.
Cross-posting from the Rumors thread, I think Kluber took it because he likely sees this as the "last roundup" sort of deal. Might as well spend a year pitching close to home before retiring.
I hope he eats innings and is serviceable. More than that would be a bonus.
 

BeantownIdaho

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Yeah, was gonna say a similar thing. They basically replace Hill with Kluber, who in his first full year back from 3 injured seasons threw 164 IP (Hill threw 124), had an ERA+ of 84 (Hill was better at 98), and had a FIP of 3.57 (Hill was at 3.92).

All-in-all it feels like an upgrade, and if slotted properly as the 4th or 5th starter, will help the team in 2023.
Agree... almost the same money and a club option if he pitches well. His numbers and durability last year are much better. Good signing to bridge to younger kids coming up.
 

Max Power

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A very tepid, risk-averse offseason so far that would make more sense to me with a stronger core in place and a bunch of blue chippers in Portland and Worcester ready to take Boston by storm. It has been a fill-in-the-gaps offseason for a team that needed gap-filling and then some. A lot rides on what we get from the Whitlock/Bello/Houck trio and what leaps may be taken (or players returned in trade) by our on-the-cusp guys like Mata, Walter, Murphy, Valdez, and maybe Raffaela and Lugo later in the summer.
But that's true no matter who they sign right now. The future of the team depends on how the prospects pan out. If they're good, the team will contend, if they're not, giving Xander 11 years wouldn't make much difference.
 

ngruz25

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The skeptic's take is that Oliver's velocity has petered out in the last few years, with his fastball/sinker averaging out just below 89 mph last season. That put him as one of the softest tossing pitchers in the league last season. If his velocity continues its downward trajectory, will he still continue to be effective?

The optimistic take is that despite diminishing velocity, Kluber continued to fool hitters and get them to chase on pitches out of the zone. He's a very smart pitcher who has adapted to his changing stuff. He's also fun to watch - he's a bit of a throwback pitcher that pitches to soft contact and works in the zone.
 

nvalvo

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I wanted Cueto, but this is a much better deal IMO than the one Texas gave Eovaldi, and it adds a bit of stability to the rotation.

Kluber was a mild BABIP victim (.318) last season, which contributed to his ERA being .80 above his FIP. So this means a huge split between his 0.7 bWAR and 3.0 fWAR.
 

8slim

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Seems fine. Cheap and disposable. If he gives us 150-160 innings at an ERA+ around 110 then it’s really good.
 

radsoxfan

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Certainly hope that club option is useful , as it means he had a much better 2022 than I expect.

Signed for 1/8 last season, velocity tanked (avg below 89 mph now), results mediocre, and gets a raise. I guess he managed 164 IP?

Obviously he's not a long term problem but very uninspiring. Bleh.... the pitching is going to stink unless Sale has a huge comeback year, Bello is an All-Star, and the Whitlock/Houck combo takes a big step forward.
 

JM3

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Red Sox quadruple down on their walks thing...

The league average walk rate appears to be 8.2% in 2022 (14,853 walks in 181,978 PAs).

Yoshida 14.5% (Japan)
Turner 9.4%

Kluber 3.0%
Martin 2.2%

Jansen is the exception at 8.5%.

Kluber seems to be the exception to their strikeout rate thing, though (20.2%)...

The league average strikeout rate appears to be 22.4% in 2022 (40,812 strikeouts in 181,978 PAs).

Martin 32.9%
Jansen 32.7%

Turner 16.7%
Yoshida 8.1% (Japan)
 

donutogre

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Seems fine. Cheap and disposable. If he gives us 150-160 innings at an ERA+ around 110 then it’s really good.
That sounds great, but in the last four seasons he has pitched a total of 280 innings with a 91 ERA+.

As a $10m reclamation project, he seems fine, but given the lack of dependable starters on this team it's hard to get very excited about this. It's worth a roll of the dice, but the rotation still feels like a total mess to me.
 

Big Papa Smurph

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Kluber is a better version of Hill seems about right, especially considering velocity; Kluber's declining velocity is something to watch for. Kluber's lost about 3 MPH on his pitches since 2020. In 2020 his fastball was 90.8 MPH. In 2021 it dropped to 89.2. In 2022 it fell further to 87.5.https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/corey-kluber-446372?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb#yty. (Rich Hill has been sitting around 87 for a while now).

On the other hand, Kluber's chase rates are still elite. He had the second highest out-of zone swing % in all of baseball last year. His out-of-zone swing and miss % wasn't as high but still good (25th in the league) https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/custom?year=2022&type=pitcher&filter=&sort=3&sortDir=asc&min=q&selections=oz_swing_percent,oz_swing_miss_percent,&chart=false&x=oz_swing_percent&y=oz_swing_percent&r=no&chartType=beeswarm
 

8slim

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That sounds great, but in the last four seasons he has pitched a total of 280 innings with a 91 ERA+.

As a $10m reclamation project, he seems fine, but given the lack of dependable starters on this team it's hard to get very excited about this. It's worth a roll of the dice, but the rotation still feels like a total mess to me.
For sure, I’m aware of his post-Cleveland career. But he did throw 160 innings last year at a better than league average ERA. So I’m hoping for a relay of that, which isn’t entirely unreasonable. If he sucks, we cut him in the summer. Whatevs.
 

LogansDad

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I like it, even if I can't imagine a scenario where he maintains a 3% BB rate (holy balls). Flyball rate went up a bit last year, but nothing crazy.

I will always worry about a pitch to contact pitcher with this team until the defense is sorted out. Story is great at 2B (and probably passable at SS, if he ends up there), Hernandez seems good if healthy in CF, but I really worry about the corner OF positions. Verdugo should really be in LF (at least at Fenway), and based off of what I have read Yoshida might belong as a DH. Unfortunately, the guys who are left in Free Agency don't make me super excited. I still think Peralta is a good fit (and seems like the kind of free agent Chaim is in on this offseason), but he wouldn't solve the Verdugo in RF issue.

Like others, I think this opens the door for a Pivetta trade. I think the team values Houck a lot, mostly because of team control and youth, so I think Pivetta is the more likely one to go. Problem is, unless they are attaching prospects, I can't imagine they get any type of a game changer in return.
 

Salem's Lot

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Kluber is another pitcher that if he pitches well enough, can be flipped to a contender at the deadline. Overall, a big market team using their cash resources to “buy” prospects is a good approach when that team has money to spend, but is probably not good enough to compete.
 

donutogre

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For sure, I’m aware of his post-Cleveland career. But he did throw 160 innings last year at a better than league average ERA. So I’m hoping for a relay of that, which isn’t entirely unreasonable. If he sucks, we cut him in the summer. Whatevs.
Wow, 4.34ERA was better than league average? I knew it was a hitter's year, but didn't realize quite how much.
 

JM3

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It would be helpful if you posted his walk rates for the past few years so we wouldn't have to look them up to see what you're talking about.
In 2022, Kluber led the league among qualifying pitchers with 1.152 walks per 9 innings (Nola 2nd with 1.273)

His previous full season was 2018 when he was 2nd in the league among qualifying pitchers with 1.423 walks per 9 innings (Mikolas 1st with 1.301).

In 2017, Kluber was 3rd in the league among qualifying pitchers with 1.591 walks per 9 innings (Samardzija 1st with 1.387...don't believe I've written his name twice already today).
 

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

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Yeah, the problem is that his K rate (7.6 per 9) and HR rate (1.1 per 9) are both well worse than any of the other guys on that list.
Well, it's only a problem if we really think we just signed a guy to 1/$10m to be as good as those guys.
My point is that he throws strikes, and there is clearly some value to an efficient pitcher like that
 

dynomite

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I think they go into spring training with everyone lined up to start, and then see where they're at by Opening Day (who's healthy, who's effective, etc). I can't imagine they're going to make any decisions before that point.
I think that’s right. Wouldn’t be surprised if they open the year that way as well, given the desire probably to manage people’s innings.

That said, not to clutter the Kluber thread, but I continue to be opposed to Whitlock in the rotation. Having him available in his swing role in the bullpen feels like an improvement to both the rotation and bullpen, not having to push starters a 3rd time through the order without burning out the bullpen.

My ideal rotation is now probably Sale - Pivetta - Bello - Kluber - Houck/Paxton
 

Ganthem

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Kluber is another pitcher that if he pitches well enough, can be flipped to a contender at the deadline. Overall, a big market team using their cash resources to “buy” prospects is a good approach when that team has money to spend, but is probably not good enough to compete.
Do you have evidence to prove Kluber was aquired to flip?