Red Sox Rumors - Just Kidding

jezza1918

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
2,607
South Dartmouth, MA
He might just be having a bit of fun with all of this as well.
Totally. That's pretty much my default thought at this point with twitter...especially when he has such an easy out if ever asked to provide context he can just say he was getting excited for spring training
 

YTF

Member
SoSH Member
Agreed. I think it’s one of two options. Either Wendle is included or you get the SP you want that frees up a Kim trade.
I don't like the idea of moving Houck, but if there is anything at all to this Miami talk does adding Lopez make Houck available for Kim? Sale, Lopez, Bello, Pivetta, Whitlock, Paxton and Kluber affords the team to potentially strengthen the pen even more by moving Houck into a relief role, but trading him doesn't detract from the pen as currently constructed and would address the middle infield situation nicely.
 

PrometheusWakefield

Member
SoSH Member
May 25, 2009
10,441
Boston, MA
I like Lopez a ton, but I'd much rather use Houck to get Kim than make Rafaela the primary in a trade for Lopez/Wendell.

Rafaela looks like a potentially special player whose defense gives him a strong floor and offensive potential could turn him into a superstar. Kim could be the same way - if he stays where he is now he's a good player who becomes a strong up the middle defensive presence and if his offense continues to improve (maybe because of power or because of the new stolen base rules) could emerge into the star he was in Korea.

Houck hasn't demonstrated the ability to hold up for a full season as a starter, got by last year on unsustainable HR/FB numbers, and his selfishness and stupidity when it comes to the vaccines last year was unacceptable (imo).

Of course you could do both.
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
14,278
It's silly since I wanted to trade Houck a couple weeks ago but I'd rather not move him in a Kim deal.

Houck's #s indicate that he would be an elite short-stint starter or bulk reliever & Kim seems like a huge regression candidate.

Kim's percentiles per Baseball Savant:

Avg exit velocity - 10
Hard hit % - 12
Barrel % - 14
Outs Above Average - 95

If his hitting regresses to the results you might expect based on that profile, you're basically left with a glove only type, which isn't really worth a guy like Houck imo.
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
14,278
I like Lopez a ton, but I'd much rather use Houck to get Kim than make Rafaela the primary in a trade for Lopez/Wendell.

Rafaela looks like a potentially special player whose defense gives him a strong floor and offensive potential could turn him into a superstar. Kim could be the same way - if he stays where he is now he's a good player who becomes a strong up the middle defensive presence and if his offense continues to improve (maybe because of power or because of the new stolen base rules) could emerge into the star he was in Korea.

Houck hasn't demonstrated the ability to hold up for a full season as a starter, got by last year on unsustainable HR/FB numbers, and his selfishness and stupidity when it comes to the vaccines last year was unacceptable (imo).

Of course you could do both.
But yeah, I also don't much want to move Rafaela. But if they are in order to get their SP, I'd much rather get our middle infielder thrown in there.
 

grimshaw

Member
SoSH Member
May 16, 2007
4,220
Portland
I understand they have to give to get and Rafaela's value may never be higher with the lack of right handed bats on the market but I really hope they don't move him for any reason with their outfield pipeline being completely dry and with such an obvious need to improve defense up the middle. It's not even prospect humping because he could help them this season.

Thankfully there is nothing on the Boston side of things leaking his name.
 

moondog80

heart is two sizes two small
SoSH Member
Sep 20, 2005
8,091
Rafaela fits in perfectly with Kike unsigned after this year. If he can even hit as well as JBJ in his first run here, his D makes for a pretty valuable 6 years of a cost controlled guy. Which doesn't mean he's on the no-trade list, just that I'd expect substantial value in return. Especially given that I don't think they are quite ready to turn the GFIN dial past 6 or so.
 

Sleepy108

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 29, 2003
237
Anniston, Alabama

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
47,083
Was looking at Alcantara’s deal to see if there was an opportunity there and…man…what a steal. Never blame guys for taking guaranteed $ but the Marlins got an absolute steal there. Not a FA until 2028 when he’s 32.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 13, 2021
11,920
We lament the lack of good young pitching, yet seem eager to dump Houck- who has a career ERA of 3.02, FiP of 2.95 and a K rate of 10+ in ~150 big league innings. I don’t think he’s been used optimally but really think he’s an asset that the team would regret moving on from.
 

LogansDad

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 15, 2006
29,049
Alamogordo
Rafaela fits in perfectly with Kike unsigned after this year. If he can even hit as well as JBJ in his first run here, his D makes for a pretty valuable 6 years of a cost controlled guy. Which doesn't mean he's on the no-trade list, just that I'd expect substantial value in return. Especially given that I don't think they are quite ready to turn the GFIN dial past 6 or so.
I agree. They have depth that they can move (Yorke/Jordan perhaps), but Rafaela both fits the bill short term and longer and they don't have anyone to replace him in 2024-2026 currently. I really don't think they should be interested in moving him, unless he is the centerpiece of something really big. As much as I like Pablo Lopez, that isn't it. The fact that he made 32 starts last year is actually kind of concerning to me, considering his injury history. It was a huge workload bump from previous seasons.
 
Aug 31, 2006
133
South Acton, Mass.
If you sign for or trade for any of these players, you bench will already be full consisting of Arroyo, Dalbec, RFsnyder and Wongers. Of course that can change if any of them are included in a deal or perhaps Dalbec starts the season in AAA.
Yes, I am assuming that with Justin Turner and Rob Refsnyder both on the major league roster that Bobby Dalbec is not part of the equation.

In addition to Wong, Arroyo, and Refsnyder, the last bench spot really should go to a strong defensive center fielder; there isn't anyone on the depth chart in between Hernandez and Rafaela who can hold down the position...I'm thinking someone like Adam Engel, Brett Phillips, or maybe even old friend Tim Locastro.
 

BringBackMo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
1,315
We lament the lack of good young pitching, yet seem eager to dump Houck- who has a career ERA of 3.02, FiP of 2.95 and a K rate of 10+ in ~150 big league innings. I don’t think he’s been used optimally but really think he’s an asset that the team would regret moving on from.
What do you see as Houck's optimal usage?
 

Max Power

thai good. you like shirt?
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2005
7,877
Boston, MA
We lament the lack of good young pitching, yet seem eager to dump Houck- who has a career ERA of 3.02, FiP of 2.95 and a K rate of 10+ in ~150 big league innings. I don’t think he’s been used optimally but really think he’s an asset that the team would regret moving on from.
I'd like to see him moved for an outfielder who can hit for power. I don't know who that would be, but trading him for a mediocre hitter like Kim seems like a waste of resources when you can just sign Elvis and not give up any trade chips. Good hitting is so hard to find these days.
 

chawson

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
4,660
We lament the lack of good young pitching, yet seem eager to dump Houck- who has a career ERA of 3.02, FiP of 2.95 and a K rate of 10+ in ~150 big league innings. I don’t think he’s been used optimally but really think he’s an asset that the team would regret moving on from.
Houck's fastball took a step back last year, and he's really going to need it to succeed as a starter (and likely that splitter, which he barely threw last year).

2021 FB: .241 xBA | .396 xSLG | 24.2 K% | 84.7 EV | .315 xwOBA
2022 FB: .275 xBA | .467 xSLG | 16.9 K% | 91.5 EV | .393 xwOBA

Houck is a good and useful pitcher and that slider is nuts. He's a tantalizing project as a starter but the Sox have about 100x more info than we do. If they trade him, I suspect it's because they're less convinced that project is worthwhile than another team.

And again, we wouldn't be "dumping him", would we? I feel like that term connotes a DFA or outright release. We'd presumably be getting someone equally interesting back.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 7, 2022
1,170
I'd like to see him moved for an outfielder who can hit for power. I don't know who that would be, but trading him for a mediocre hitter like Kim seems like a waste of resources when you can just sign Elvis and not give up any trade chips. Good hitting is so hard to find these days.
Add in "with similar years of team control" and I'm in complete agreement here. If you're going to trade Rafaela and / or Houck, package them with something else to go get a significant piece for this year AND the window with the kids, not for anything where one year of Joey Wendle or Miguel Rojas is any significant part of a return.

If a middle infielder with one year of control is a significant part of the return, just try Rafaela there (or in CF) and move Hernandez to the other spot.
 
Last edited:

BringBackMo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
1,315
Houck's fastball took a step back last year, and he's really going to need it to succeed as a starter (and likely that splitter, which he barely threw last year).

2021 FB: .241 xBA | .396 xSLG | 24.2 K% | 84.7 EV | .315 xwOBA
2022 FB: .275 xBA | .467 xSLG | 16.9 K% | 91.5 EV | .393 xwOBA

Houck is a good and useful pitcher and that slider is nuts. He's a tantalizing project as a starter but the Sox have about 100x more info than we do. If they trade him, I suspect it's because they're less convinced that project is worthwhile than another team.

And again, we wouldn't be "dumping him", would we? I feel like that term connotes a DFA or outright release. We'd presumably be getting someone equally interesting back.
Good post. There's also the fact that his numbers drop precipitously each time through the lineup. He's a good pitcher! But I think we're kidding ourselves if expect him to develop into the kind of starter who can consistently go five or six innings.
 

bosox1534

New Member
Dec 17, 2022
130
Any chance we could get Lopez without including Rafaela? Maybe a package of Yorke, Duran, Bleis or someone else? I’m not huge on giving up a top-50ish prospect for a pitcher who has had one full season, albeit a very good one. But he is also only under control for 2 years.

A Cabrera-Rojas trade would be ideal for me, as Cabrera is more controllable and I see him putting up similar numbers to Lopez in a full season. Rojas would improve the defense up the middle and is an average bat. Would prefer him to a Wendle/Arroyo platoon.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 13, 2021
11,920
Good post. There's also the fact that his numbers drop precipitously each time through the lineup. He's a good pitcher! But I think we're kidding ourselves if expect him to develop into the kind of starter who can consistently go five or six innings.
Perhaps, but in the limited times in which he’s started, they haven’t even let him attempt to work out of trouble. In 20 game started he has a 3.22 ERA, 10.4 K/9, yet just 4.6 innings per start. His numbers when facing a batter for the second time in a game is a 617 ops, which is still great (much better than Whitlock, even). Lousy numbers third time…but that’s all of 30 PA.

If the org wants to develop starters, I think they need to let them start and figure some things out in big league games. The talent with both Houck and Whitlock is obviously there .
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
14,278
Houck's fastball took a step back last year, and he's really going to need it to succeed as a starter (and likely that splitter, which he barely threw last year).

2021 FB: .241 xBA | .396 xSLG | 24.2 K% | 84.7 EV | .315 xwOBA
2022 FB: .275 xBA | .467 xSLG | 16.9 K% | 91.5 EV | .393 xwOBA

Houck is a good and useful pitcher and that slider is nuts. He's a tantalizing project as a starter but the Sox have about 100x more info than we do. If they trade him, I suspect it's because they're less convinced that project is worthwhile than another team.

And again, we wouldn't be "dumping him", would we? I feel like that term connotes a DFA or outright release. We'd presumably be getting someone equally interesting back.
That's a bit misleading - he threw his 4-seam fastball (the stats you are quoting) 23.5% of the time last year...a total of 216 pitches. He was also pitching in an entirely different role which leads to a different pitch mix. His 4-seam fastball would have been his pitch primarily used when behind in the count rather than having a heavier usage earlier in the count as a starter, which likely leads to much of that difference.

In '21, primarily as a starter, his pitch mix was 38.6% 4-seam/37.1% slider/17% sinker/7.4% splitter.
In '22, primarily as a high-leverage reliever, it was 40.8% slider/29.6% sinker/23.5% 4-seam/6% splitter.

So he threw the 4-seam 15.1% less, & the sinker 12.6% more. here's the improvement on those same #s on the sinker year over year (sorry don't see K%, just whiff %, & that differs greatly from Chawson's #):

2021 Sinker: .272 xBA | .418 xSLG | 90.2 EV | .319 xwOBA
2022 Sinker: .251 xBA | .323 xSLG | 89.9 EV | .286 xwOBA

So yeah, I think that whole fastball thing is a nothing-burger. The velocity on the pitch increased from 94.5 mph to 95.2 mph, which I'm sure is role-related.

It's true what BBM said about Houck's splits:

1st time: 1.53 ERA (0.96 as a starter)
2nd time: 4.53 ERA (4.12 as a starter)
3rd time: 14.23 ERA (6.1 innings)

But if you blend those 1st 2 times through the lineup, you still have a guy pitching 5 innings with a 3 ERA. That's pretty pretty good.
 

LogansDad

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 15, 2006
29,049
Alamogordo
Perhaps, but in the limited times in which he’s started, they haven’t even let him attempt to work out of trouble. In 20 game started he has a 3.22 ERA, 10.4 K/9, yet just 4.6 innings per start. His numbers when facing a batter for the second time in a game is a 617 ops, which is still great (much better than Whitlock, even). Lousy numbers third time…but that’s all of 30 PA.

If the org wants to develop starters, I think they need to let them start and figure some things out in big league games. The talent with both Houck and Whitlock is obviously there .
I agree with this completely. If they want the young players to get better at starting, then they need to have them start. We are going on the third full season for each of Whitlock and Houck, and it is time for the team to decide what role they want them in, not sling them back and forth. I think last year they were pressed into mixed roles, but this season I think there's enough depth for both of them to go into Spring Training knowing what the expectations are of them, whether it be to start or pitch in relief (my preference is Whitlock starting and Houck in the pen, personally). In my opinion, that's another of the benefits of adding three solid RP's on short term deals, is that you can do a better job of clearly defining everyone's roles.
 

E5 Yaz

Transcends message boarding
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 25, 2002
90,014
Oregon
According to BRef, Red Sox starters averaged 5.0 innings last season. The major league average was 5.2. That's the trend and despite the exceptions to the rule we can all name, teams just aren't letting starters go past that threshold anymore.

Given the tend, developing Houck (or Whitlock, or Bello) to be anything more than a five-inning, twice through the order pitcher would appear to go against organizational philosophy. Maybe Belo breaks the mold and be the exception for the Red Sox ... but in terms of "development," it seems as though Houck and others are evolving into what management wants them to be
 

nvalvo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
21,478
Rogers Park
Any chance we could get Lopez without including Rafaela? Maybe a package of Yorke, Duran, Bleis or someone else? I’m not huge on giving up a top-50ish prospect for a pitcher who has had one full season, albeit a very good one. But he is also only under control for 2 years.

A Cabrera-Rojas trade would be ideal for me, as Cabrera is more controllable and I see him putting up similar numbers to Lopez in a full season. Rojas would improve the defense up the middle and is an average bat. Would prefer him to a Wendle/Arroyo platoon.
Including Bleis over Rafaela is a strange choice IMO. He’s further away, but his ceiling is much higher, and he should be on all the top 100 lists at their next revision.

.900 OPS in the Florida Complex League at 18 is pretty exciting, and suggests a fast mover.
 

grimshaw

Member
SoSH Member
May 16, 2007
4,220
Portland
Including Bleis over Rafaela is a strange choice IMO. He’s further away, but his ceiling is much higher, and he should be on all the top 100 lists at their next revision.

.900 OPS in the Florida Complex League at 18 is pretty exciting, and suggests a fast mover.
And the Marlins are trying to improve their 2023, not 2026 offense.
 

chawson

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
4,660
That's a bit misleading - he threw his 4-seam fastball (the stats you are quoting) 23.5% of the time last year...a total of 216 pitches. He was also pitching in an entirely different role which leads to a different pitch mix. His 4-seam fastball would have been his pitch primarily used when behind in the count rather than having a heavier usage earlier in the count as a starter, which likely leads to much of that difference.

In '21, primarily as a starter, his pitch mix was 38.6% 4-seam/37.1% slider/17% sinker/7.4% splitter.
In '22, primarily as a high-leverage reliever, it was 40.8% slider/29.6% sinker/23.5% 4-seam/6% splitter.

So he threw the 4-seam 15.1% less, & the sinker 12.6% more. here's the improvement on those same #s on the sinker year over year (sorry don't see K%, just whiff %, & that differs greatly from Chawson's #):

2021 Sinker: .272 xBA | .418 xSLG | 90.2 EV | .319 xwOBA
2022 Sinker: .251 xBA | .323 xSLG | 89.9 EV | .286 xwOBA

So yeah, I think that whole fastball thing is a nothing-burger. The velocity on the pitch increased from 94.5 mph to 95.2 mph, which I'm sure is role-related.

It's true what BBM said about Houck's splits:

1st time: 1.53 ERA (0.96 as a starter)
2nd time: 4.53 ERA (4.12 as a starter)
3rd time: 14.23 ERA (6.1 innings)

But if you blend those 1st 2 times through the lineup, you still have a guy pitching 5 innings with a 3 ERA. That's pretty pretty good.
Sure, that's fair and it makes sense that he'd use his pitches differently in a relief role.

But there was something definitely different about Houck in his first few starts last year that led to him being bounced to the bullpen. The unvaccinated Toronto trip seemed to gloss it over, but he looked like he was struggling with command quite a bit more than he was in 2021. And his fastball was getting hammered.

July 22-Sep 18, 2021:
10 GS, 29.6 K%, 7.1 BB%, 0.57 HR/9, 13.3 SwStr%
57% FB | 86.1 EV | .317 xwOBA
34.6% SL | 86.9 EV | .213 xwOBA
8.4% SF | 86.3 EV | .317 xwOBA

April 10-21, 2022:
3 GS, 19.3 K%, 12.3 BB%, 0.00 HR/9, 8.0 SwStr%
57.1% FB | 95.8 EV | .440 xwOBA
32.4% SL | 88.2 EV | .205 xwOBA
10.5% SF | 100.1 EV | .241 xwOBA

So, you're right about the pitch mix. At this level of detail, there was no difference in the pitch's usage between Houck as a starter in 2021 or 2022. The difference is that his fastball was getting destroyed, which may or may not have influenced him to throw it less in a bullpen role.

It's probably got more to do with the short spring training than anything, but it was strange that the Sox put him in the bullpen so early in the year. We did need to shore up the bullpen, but I suspect that the fact that hitters were crushing Houck's fastball was a factor too.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
24,369
I am bullish on Ceddanne and really want to see him in a Sox uniform. I’d hate to trade him.
Me too but this is the thing, right? I'm bullish on a lot of the Sox' prospects right now. This guy could end up being something special.

Or... he might not be.

This is the dilemma. Do you trade prospects with huge potential, not knowing what they could be? Obviously if they were getting Alcantara, it's a no-brainer, but pretty obviously that's not the guy who would be coming back. They do seem to have a lot of promising young arms, but it sounds like the guy they'd be getting back is someone who is already a front line starter. So Lopez would be the likely bet, though is he REALLY a "front line" guy? He's good but.... #1 starter good? Maybe. Just 26 years old.
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
14,278
Sure, that's fair and it makes sense that he'd use his pitches differently in a relief role.

But there was something definitely different about Houck in his first few starts last year that led to him being bounced to the bullpen. The unvaccinated Toronto trip seemed to gloss it over, but he looked like he was struggling with command quite a bit more than he was in 2021. And his fastball was getting hammered.

July 22-Sep 18, 2021:
10 GS, 29.6 K%, 7.1 BB%, 0.57 HR/9, 13.3 SwStr%
57% FB | 86.1 EV | .317 xwOBA
34.6% SL | 86.9 EV | .213 xwOBA
8.4% SF | 86.3 EV | .317 xwOBA

April 10-21, 2022:
3 GS, 19.3 K%, 12.3 BB%, 0.00 HR/9, 8.0 SwStr%
57.1% FB | 95.8 EV | .440 xwOBA
32.4% SL | 88.2 EV | .205 xwOBA
10.5% SF | 100.1 EV | .241 xwOBA

So, you're right about the pitch mix. At this level of detail, there was no difference in the pitch's usage between Houck as a starter in 2021 or 2022. The difference is that his fastball was getting destroyed, which may or may not have influenced him to throw it less in a bullpen role.

It's probably got more to do with the short spring training than anything, but it was strange that the Sox put him in the bullpen so early in the year. We did need to shore up the bullpen, but I suspect that the fact that hitters were crushing Houck's fastball was a factor too.
That's a really small sample size, & his results were still fine...

Those 3 starts were:

4/10 Yankees - 3.1 innings, 3 ER on 6 hits & 1 walk, 76 pitches
4/16 Twins - 5.2 innings, 0 ER on 2 hits & 3 walks, 89 pitches
4/21 Blue Jays - 5 innings, 2 ER on 3 hits & 1 walk, 71 pitches

Despite getting roughed up in the 1st game by the Yankees, that's a 3.21 ERA over those 3 starts. So it seems unlikely that getting removed from the rotation was performance related, or related to distrust in his fastball moving forward.

At the time it seems like they were likely annoyed by the vaccine stuff & content to role out Wacha/Whitlock/Hill/Eo/Pivetta - while shoring up the disastrous bullpen.
 

Chainsaw318

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 6, 2006
1,902
Burned . . . Blacklisted
Including Bleis over Rafaela is a strange choice IMO. He’s further away, but his ceiling is much higher, and he should be on all the top 100 lists at their next revision.

.900 OPS in the Florida Complex League at 18 is pretty exciting, and suggests a fast mover.
Bleis is the potentially special guy - as usual, I will defer to SoxProspects and their excellent podcast.
Their director of scouting, Ian Cundall, is not effusive with praise and on the episode prior to last nights emergency Devers reaction, he was taking about Bleis as the quality of prospect that could be mentioned alongside guys now thought of as the next face of the game (like Julio Rodriguez). Bleis is far away, but that’s a guy you need to hold on to.

I hope Rafaela succeeds, but his flaws are more obvious, though the step forward last year gives hope for the offensive impact and the defense is quality.
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
14,278
I would trade Rafaela over Bleis every day of the week. Bleis is basically untouchable to me.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2007
6,344
Including Bleis over Rafaela is a strange choice IMO. He’s further away, but his ceiling is much higher, and he should be on all the top 100 lists at their next revision.

.900 OPS in the Florida Complex League at 18 is pretty exciting, and suggests a fast mover.
Was posting this same thing. From what I've read about Bleis is that he's the likely better all around player. That's not pooping on Cedanne at all. Both those guys are on my Untouchable (standard caveat applies that ANY prospect in the right deal is tradeable though) List. The Yorke/Romero future possible 2B guys are the ones that should be more on the block for deals, in the way that DD leveraged prospect depth at 3B to get Sale.... posting this knowing full well that neither Yorke nor Romero are in the same category as Devers and Moncada were at the time. Devers was further away and had more question marks than Moncada at the time
 
Aug 31, 2006
133
South Acton, Mass.
I don't doubt the "smoke" around a Red Sox/Marlins trade, but the idea of trading a prospect like Rafaela for pitching is very confusing to me.

Right now, the organization's pitching depth seems far ahead of the positional player depth; in fact, if one counts Houck as a starter, we have at least 7 viable SPs on the major league roster, with some decent depth behind them in AAA. The organizational depth chart for center fielders is pretty thin, and Hernandez is a free agent after 2023.

That's not to say that someone like Pablo Lopez wouldn't improve the 2023 Red Sox but it would seem to fly in the face of long-term strategy to trade Rafaela for a SP.
 

brandonchristensen

Loves Aaron Judge
SoSH Member
Feb 4, 2012
38,144
Me too but this is the thing, right? I'm bullish on a lot of the Sox' prospects right now. This guy could end up being something special.

Or... he might not be.

This is the dilemma. Do you trade prospects with huge potential, not knowing what they could be? Obviously if they were getting Alcantara, it's a no-brainer, but pretty obviously that's not the guy who would be coming back. They do seem to have a lot of promising young arms, but it sounds like the guy they'd be getting back is someone who is already a front line starter. So Lopez would be the likely bet, though is he REALLY a "front line" guy? He's good but.... #1 starter good? Maybe. Just 26 years old.
I’m still healing from getting rid of Anderson Espinoza.
 

simplicio

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 11, 2012
4,711
I don't doubt the "smoke" around a Red Sox/Marlins trade, but the idea of trading a prospect like Rafaela for pitching is very confusing to me.

Right now, the organization's pitching depth seems far ahead of the positional player depth; in fact, if one counts Houck as a starter, we have at least 7 viable SPs on the major league roster, with some decent depth behind them in AAA. The organizational depth chart for center fielders is pretty thin, and Hernandez is a free agent after 2023.

That's not to say that someone like Pablo Lopez wouldn't improve the 2023 Red Sox but it would seem to fly in the face of long-term strategy to trade Rafaela for a SP.
I'm in complete agreement. Rafaela looks like our 24-29 center fielder, not a guy you trade for stop-gap guys like 2 years of Lopez and a year of Wendle.
 

BringBackMo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
1,315
The SoxProspects guys have been banging the Bleis drum for a few months now. They've said repeatedly that the praise being heaped on Bleis is coming from other teams' scouts. He was widely considered the top player in the FCL last year and would have almost certainly been promoted to Salem near the end of the season if not for some nagging injuries that they wanted to give some time to heal, so he was shut down. Cundall is typically wide-eyed about these things. He has acknowledged that there are wide outcome ranges for even the best 18 year old prospects--many of them fail!--but the feeling is that this this is the kind of player that you simply have to bet on and see what develops. His ceiling is said to be Acuna-esque. AGAIN, no one is suggesting that he will definitely hit that ceiling. The point is that there are so few players who have the chance to turn into that kind of player that you simply have to hold onto them.

Rafaela is a really good prospect because even if his bat never improves--apparently big issues with chasing pitches out of the zone, which leads to a lot of poor contact, and which has the potential to become more pronounced as he faces ever-better pitching--his defense is so good at both SS and CF that his floor, barring injury, looks like a bench player in the big leagues. If he can tap into his offensive potential at all, he easily becomes an everyday player. Like others, I would hate to see them give this kid up, but the Sox seem to be at least listening to offers, and for the right return it probably makes sense to sell high on him.

tl/dr: No way I'm giving up Bleis instead of Ceddanne...but love 'em both.
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
12,678
Rafaela looks like a potentially special player whose defense gives him a strong floor and offensive potential could turn him into a superstar. Kim could be the same way - if he stays where he is now he's a good player who becomes a strong up the middle defensive presence and if his offense continues to improve (maybe because of power or because of the new stolen base rules) could emerge into the star he was in Korea.
I’m bullish on Little Raffi, and I’m not that high on him offensively. To me he looks like a younger/cheaper Kiké, and there’s a ton of value in that. So I’m not sure that I’d trade him for Lopez straight up (with only has two years of control left extending Lopez will be tough). And the Marlins would probably want more. I’m not sure that two years of Lopez is worth six years of gold glove defense at important positions (whether SS or CF) plus prospects.
 

pjr

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 17, 2005
780
Quincy,MA
Chad Jennings response to the Tweet I posted.

Nothing to read into it. I just felt like my tweet was pointless and suggested it was Ceddanne himself who tweeted the emojis. I was rushing around taking my 3 year old to the doctor at the time, and just felt it was better to take it down. That's all.
 

scottyno

late Bloomer
SoSH Member
Dec 7, 2008
11,304
Not saying that this means it isn't happening, but the last time a heavily reported big Sox deal actually happened was... I'm not even sure, the Mookie trade maybe?

As per usual with this management team, the Devers extension came pretty much out of nowhere media wise.
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
47,083
Not saying that this means it isn't happening, but the last time a heavily reported big Sox deal actually happened was... I'm not even sure, the Mookie trade maybe?

As per usual with this management team, the Devers extension came pretty much out of nowhere media wise.
Yeah, this front office makes Bill Belichick look like a drunk at an office party. NOTHING gets out.
 

chawson

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
4,660
Not saying that this means it isn't happening, but the last time a heavily reported big Sox deal actually happened was... I'm not even sure, the Mookie trade maybe?

As per usual with this management team, the Devers extension came pretty much out of nowhere media wise.
There was some reported smoke around Trevor Story before we signed him, but I don’t recall any for Bloom’s trades.