Silver Dollar - The Official NBA Betting Thread!

SteveF

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
2,141
Charlotte over 30.5, and Detroit under 28.5, Toronto over 36.5 (bit of a risk here with Siakam/Anunoby trades). Those are the ones I would bet if I had to bet win totals.

The West is going to be a bloodbath, so if you have a handle on which teams in the West will disappoint, betting those under on teams like Minnesota, Dallas, New Orleans, etc. might be another way to go. I have no idea, personally.
 
Last edited:

Auger34

used to be tbb
SoSH Member
Apr 23, 2010
10,094
Charlotte over 30.5, and Detroit under 28.5, Toronto over 36.5 (bit of a risk here with Siakam/Anunoby trades). Those are the ones I would bet if I had to bet win totals.

The West is going to be a bloodbath, so if you have a handle on which teams in the West will disappoint, betting those under on teams like Minnesota, Dallas, New Orleans, etc. might be another way to go. I have no idea, personally.
Why the over on Charlotte? Agree with the other two, but isn't Charlotte the worst team in the NBA as of now?
 

SteveF

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
2,141
I was thinking Bridges for most of the season + Ball for most of the season and the coaching is basically average. Though even with just a little pushback you have me second guessing myself, so I will probably stay away from it.
 

Red Averages

owes you $50
SoSH Member
Apr 20, 2003
9,235
I just want to say how happy I am to see this thread getting bumped! Few more weeks...

Hopefully our fearless leader returns with more wisdom for '23-'24
 

zak1013

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
254
Agreed. Do we need to start a 23-24 thread? I will say that I always find season O/Us to be super enticing but tough to justify from an ROI perspective given how long your $ is tied up and how much you’d have to sink into them to justify the lock-up.

Separately, I’d be lying if I said I haven’t already penciled in the DEN-OKC game on the 29th with a 2:30 local start time as the real season opener for this crew!
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
47,396
Agreed. Do we need to start a 23-24 thread? I will say that I always find season O/Us to be super enticing but tough to justify from an ROI perspective given how long your $ is tied up and how much you’d have to sink into them to justify the lock-up.

Separately, I’d be lying if I said I haven’t already penciled in the DEN-OKC game on the 29th with a 2:30 local start time as the real season opener for this crew!
I've found the best O/U futures to do are NFL or MLB individual player ones. I did quite well this spring but hammering the unders on guys who were nursing some injuries that turned out to be more serious, guys like Kyle Wright, Brendan Rodgers, etc. You have to move quickly on those. However, I also like to do unders on counting stats because the house is taking the injury risk, not you. For instance, Trout's HR o/u was like 38.5. The guy always gets hurt so I'd gladly bet against his health every year. The only guy I really went over on was Acuna coming off a poor year. And that, too, worked out quite well.

Really don't like doing NBA team o/u. Really hard to get a read on things and you always deal with the specter of injuries. But, I do think there are instances where you see teams gel the year before and hit their over before the league catches on.
 

Mloaf71

Well-Known Member
Gold Supporter
SoSH Member
Jul 13, 2005
644
@HomeRunBaker and @Red Averages

With the regular season rapidly approaching, I'd love to hear how you guys think through the beginning of the season without large amounts of data to go on.

Do teams come out of the gate focused and unders tend to play before the books catch up? Or does Offense tend to reign supreme as it takes teams awhile to jell on D?
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,719
@HomeRunBaker and @Red Averages

With the regular season rapidly approaching, I'd love to hear how you guys think through the beginning of the season without large amounts of data to go on.

Do teams come out of the gate focused and unders tend to play before the books catch up? Or does Offense tend to reign supreme as it takes teams awhile to jell on D?
It's the NBA, scorers are going to score when they are in rhythm. After a long summer off and a shortened preseason where many stars are only playing a couple games I'd tend to look toward the Unders over the first couple weeks and then once numbers adjust the players will be getting into their routines and scoring should pick up. It's important to be nimble though...I think it was 2018(?) when teams came out of the gate with pace and scoring like Doug Moe and Paul Westhead were on the sidelines. There was about a 10-day period prior to numbers adjusting that were absolute gold! Stay flexible in your thinking and observe what is going on as it is a copycat league.

Don't confuse "Under hunting" with blindly firing them as some teams coming out flat while others do not. My cap involves monitoring pace numbers, watch as many games as possible to not get tricked by the numbers. All Pace is not created equally in regards to scoring so you can see tons of early season opportunities especially in the live betting markets if you know what to watch for.

The majority of my preflop wagering on NBA comes in the first two months of the season and in the playoffs. I'm always on the in-games but from Jan to April that is like 95% if my action. The rest is predominantly fading the injury steam like say Phoenix opens -3 on the road then at 11am we get news that Durant, Booker and Beal are sitting out. The overreaction now has them +8 and a juicy ML with a bunch of hungry scrappy bench players having an opportunity against the opponent who approaches game as if it's a lay down and underperforms. I'm kinda hating the new Load management rules as this has been such a profitable spot over the years.

Oh, off on a tangent. Who woulda thought? Midseason form lol.
 

Red Averages

owes you $50
SoSH Member
Apr 20, 2003
9,235
I think from a risk perspective if you normally operate with a base of 1 for $ at risk, you're a 1 out of the gate at the start of the season, down to a 0.25 in January then up to a 3 as we get towards the postseason.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,719
Great as always. Appreciate the expertise you guys bring!
Also, don't assume subtle changes are subtle at all. For example, the league uses a different ball every couple of years now. While you may think Meh it's only a ball.....in todays game of 3-pt shooting the ball matters A LOT to shooters. Two years ago we saw 3-pt shooting come out of the game well below average on the most recent ball change. Maybe something to remember in the future as there will surely be more ball changes.....who know it may be advantageous to shooters we won't know until it's rolled out.
 

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
20,601
Santa Monica
Here are my 4 favorite NBA Over/Unders, feel free to rip now or during the course of the season
https://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/odds/win-totals/

OVERS
Kings 44.5
- 48 wins last season. Focused, little player turnover. Mike Brown building a culture there. Don't get this one.
Knicks 45.5 - 47 wins last season. Same group. The addition of Donte/Hart will put them into the top 4 in the EC (C's, MIL, NYK, CAVs)
Celtics 54.5 - 57 wins last season. Better starters. Better HC + Asst coaching. More Derrick White at the end of games. JAYs a season older.

UNDER
Bucks 54.5
- it's going to take time to come together. Stotts exiting on a Rookie HC pushed me to look at the Bucks a little more closely. Old Man risk here with Middleton's knee. Dame. Lopezes. Crowder. Giannis entering season 10, so they should start handling him with more care. Extremely Veteran Group (Portis, Connaughton, Cam Payne are all entering their 8th season) won't give a damn about the regular season.

Two on the Fence about:
Wanted to take the 76ers UNDER but besides having the NBA MVP in his prime, they have players after Harden to get this group to 50 wins.

I'd like to take the OVER on HOU at 31.5 with IME holding the kids accountable but the WEST is going to be brutal and it's going to take a while for IME's message to get through.

https://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/odds/win-totals/
 
Last edited:

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
12,668
Here are my 4 favorite NBA Over/Unders, feel free to rip now or during the course of the season
https://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/odds/win-totals/

OVERS
Kings 44.5
- 48 wins last season. Focused, little player turnover. Mike Brown building a culture there. Don't get this one.
Knicks 45.5 - 47 wins last season. Same group. The addition of Donte/Hart will put them into the top 4 in the EC (C's, MIL, NYK, CAVs)
Celtics 54.5 - 57 wins last season. Better starters. Better HC + Asst coaching. More Derrick White at the end of games. JAYs a season older.

UNDER
Bucks 54.5
- it's going to take time to come together. Stotts exiting on a Rookie HC pushed me to look at the Bucks a little more closely. Old Man risk here with Middleton's knee. Dame. Lopezes. Crowder. Giannis entering season 10, so they should start handling him with more care. Extremely Veteran Group (Portis, Connaughton, Cam Payne are all entering their 8th season) won't give a damn about the regular season.

Two on the Fence about:
Wanted to take the 76ers UNDER but besides having the NBA MVP in his prime, they have players after Harden to get this group to 50 wins.

I'd like to take the OVER on HOU at 31.5 with IME holding the kids accountable but the WEST is going to be brutal and it's going to take a while for IME's message to get through.

https://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/odds/win-totals/
The Kings were INSANELY healthy last year (top 8 app played 73+ games iirc), so that's what's being priced in here.
 

Smokey Joe

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 9, 2001
1,187
Here are my 4 favorite NBA Over/Unders, feel free to rip now or during the course of the season
https://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/odds/win-totals/

OVERS
Kings 44.5
- 48 wins last season. Focused, little player turnover. Mike Brown building a culture there. Don't get this one.
Knicks 45.5 - 47 wins last season. Same group. The addition of Donte/Hart will put them into the top 4 in the EC (C's, MIL, NYK, CAVs)
Celtics 54.5 - 57 wins last season. Better starters. Better HC + Asst coaching. More Derrick White at the end of games. JAYs a season older.

UNDER
Bucks 54.5
- it's going to take time to come together. Stotts exiting on a Rookie HC pushed me to look at the Bucks a little more closely. Old Man risk here with Middleton's knee. Dame. Lopezes. Crowder. Giannis entering season 10, so they should start handling him with more care. Extremely Veteran Group (Portis, Connaughton, Cam Payne are all entering their 8th season) won't give a damn about the regular season.

Two on the Fence about:
Wanted to take the 76ers UNDER but besides having the NBA MVP in his prime, they have players after Harden to get this group to 50 wins.

I'd like to take the OVER on HOU at 31.5 with IME holding the kids accountable but the WEST is going to be brutal and it's going to take a while for IME's message to get through.

https://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/odds/win-totals/
The Sacto win total also takes into account the increased competitiveness of the western conference. Both the Lakers and Phoenix got significantly better and some people think that having Kyrie actually improves Dallas. Golden State is one year further away from the punch, OKC continues to improve and even last years doormats (Houston and San Antonio) have improved. The one team that clearly got worse (Portland) walked away with the second best player of the draft. It’s gonna be a lot harder to get wins in the West this year.
 

SteveF

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
2,141
Win totals are tough. If you think about gambling as exploiting the cognitive biases of your fellow gamblers (e.g. treating players like random number generators outside of context, recency bias as regards in game scoring totals, etc.) I think win totals are just much harder to exploit in that way.
 

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
20,601
Santa Monica
The Sacto win total also takes into account the increased competitiveness of the western conference. Both the Lakers and Phoenix got significantly better and some people think that having Kyrie actually improves Dallas. Golden State is one year further away from the punch, OKC continues to improve and even last years doormats (Houston and San Antonio) have improved. The one team that clearly got worse (Portland) walked away with the second best player of the draft. It’s gonna be a lot harder to get wins in the West this year.
I agree the Lakers will be better this year. Maybe they should be an OVER (just can't do that)

Schroder was decent for them last season. BUT Austin Reeves will have a larger role which will be a huge uptick. Getting a full season of RUI and Vanderbilt should also help. Supposedly DLo has seen the light and wants to play D (I'll believe it when I see it)

I'm not a huge fan of their Summer additions. Gabe Vincent rode a hot Celtics series to get a deal. Wood (completely out-of-shape), Reddish, Prince, Jaxson Hayes don't really add much value
 

Smokey Joe

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 9, 2001
1,187
I agree the Lakers will be better this year. Maybe they should be an OVER (just can't do that)

Schroder was decent for them last season. BUT Austin Reeves will have a larger role which will be a huge uptick. Getting a full season of RUI and Vanderbilt should also help. Supposedly DLo has seen the light and wants to play D (I'll believe it when I see it)

I'm not a huge fan of their Summer additions. Gabe Vincent rode a hot Celtics series to get a deal. Wood (completely out-of-shape), Reddish, Prince, Jaxson Hayes don't really add much value
Last season the Kings played the Lakers 4 times and were 3-1 and this all happened before the Lakers traded Westbrook. This is among the reasons that I am fine with the over-under on the Kings. You might pick the over, but I wouldn’t bet on it. It’s gonna be tough in the West this year.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,719
I grabbed Under 46.5 Wins on Grizzlies based on Steven Adams news. May still be able to nab it on an NFL Sunday morning without focus on the NBA futures market.

They are so banged up and the season hasn't even began. I also question Smart finding his comfort zone in adapting to two new systems...without Morant and then with him. That's a part of my cap for entire team with these multiple adjustment periods already baked in prior to the season beginning.

Edit: While I was clicking around NBA Futures I also landed on Celtics to win the In-Season Tournament at +850 which seems super wide for a team that would seem to want to make a statement in this event.
 
Last edited:

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
12,668
I grabbed Under 46.5 Wins on Grizzlies based on Steven Adams news. May still be able to nab it on an NFL Sunday morning without focus on the NBA futures market.

They are so banged up and the season hasn't even began. I also question Smart finding his comfort zone in adapting to two new systems...without Morant and then with him. That's a part of my cap for entire team with these multiple adjustment periods already baked in prior to the season beginning.

Edit: While I was clicking around NBA Futures I also landed on Celtics to win the In-Season Tournament at +850 which seems super wide for a team that would seem to want to make a statement in this event.
Yes, aside from the natural pride NBA players take in marquee regular season games, I can see contending organizations really going for it in the Tournament as an early test of "does our shit work in the playoffs?"

They won't play guys through injury, but everything else will be on the table.
 

Light-Tower-Power

ask me about My Pillow
SoSH Member
Jun 14, 2013
16,198
Nashua, NH
Has anyone gotten a DK VIP offer? Someone from DK contacted me asking if I want in on the VIP program and put a 100% deposit match offer up to $2,500 on NBA bets over the next week. I feel like an idiot not to take advantage of that offer, but I am by no means a high roller so I'm a little confused why they'd be contacting me and what I'd be getting out of it.
 

Red Averages

owes you $50
SoSH Member
Apr 20, 2003
9,235
Has anyone gotten a DK VIP offer? Someone from DK contacted me asking if I want in on the VIP program and put a 100% deposit match offer up to $2,500 on NBA bets over the next week. I feel like an idiot not to take advantage of that offer, but I am by no means a high roller so I'm a little confused why they'd be contacting me and what I'd be getting out of it.
Take the free money. They’ll eventually take you out of the program if you aren’t betting a lot, but deposit $2500, get $2500 (it sounds like) and feel free to use your $2500 super slow (rely on their bonus bets for yours). These guys have insane marketing budgets and have made the bet (pun) that giving you $2500 will result in more back to them in the long run.
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
47,396
Has anyone gotten a DK VIP offer? Someone from DK contacted me asking if I want in on the VIP program and put a 100% deposit match offer up to $2,500 on NBA bets over the next week. I feel like an idiot not to take advantage of that offer, but I am by no means a high roller so I'm a little confused why they'd be contacting me and what I'd be getting out of it.
Any idea how the bonus bets are paid out? That’s a ton of free money.
 

Mloaf71

Well-Known Member
Gold Supporter
SoSH Member
Jul 13, 2005
644
I‘ve got a 25% Deposit Match here in VA for a deposit of up to $1k.

I should put the money in and let HRB and RA have my password :)
 

Brand Name

make hers mark
Moderator
SoSH Member
Oct 6, 2010
4,450
Moving the Line
Since it's bonus bets, you don't get the initial stake back on a winner. So don't go picking high favorites as a result! Instead, go typically for plus money. So, let's say you did $250 a prop of Daniel Gafford over 10.5 points, +105*. That's $262.50 you'd get, not $512.50.

*Not an endorsed play. For purposes of illustration only.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,719
I choose to ignore playing any pre-season this year which is always a place to find value if you can get the information ahead of time. My travel and hectic schedule wasn't going to allow me full commitment and you can't play this game without that.

The first week is similar to that of NFL now as both sports play a limited preseason schedule and the starters pretty much work themselves into game shape during this time. I tend to look to fade older veteran teams who made deep runs last season, likely didn't begin preparing for the season (aside from necessary recuperation) until just prior to camp while not logging heavy minutes. Also, fading teams with new systems, or reshuffling of the deck. I look to play on younger teams that have worked longer in the offseason and preseason, like lottery teams, who are motivated for a fresh and fast start.

Lakers certainly qualified on their own last night however they didn't have a willing opponent as I need two to tango for this angle to show the value I desire. Keep eyes out for them as a fade early on though.

* My best spot tonight is Pistons/Heat. I am ok with Pistons +9 but I prefer Miami TT Under 114.5 if you can get it.
 

zak1013

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
254
Lakers certainly qualified on their own last night however they didn't have a willing opponent as I need two to tango for this angle to show the value I desire. Keep eyes out for them as a fade early on though.
In that vein, thoughts on fading Lebron points props over the next few weeks? Seems from Ham’s comments last night that Lebron is going to be playing fewer minutes on the regular and feels like it could be a situation where it take a week or two for lines to adjust.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,719
In that vein, thoughts on fading Lebron points props over the next few weeks? Seems from Ham’s comments last night that Lebron is going to be playing fewer minutes on the regular and feels like it could be a situation where it take a week or two for lines to adjust.
Yes for sure. Other dynamics in play is LeBron deferring to get them involved early in the season as well as him not being as explosive forcing him to distribute once help comes. I don't focus on the prop market but I do like this angle if his numbers are inflated like this is 2019 LeBron.
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
47,396
I feel like Celtics props will be a minefield this year. Starting lineup is so loaded and potential for blowout impact is there.
 

zak1013

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
254
Yes for sure. Other dynamics in play is LeBron deferring to get them involved early in the season as well as him not being as explosive forcing him to distribute once help comes. I don't focus on the prop market but I do like this angle if his numbers are inflated like this is 2019 LeBron.
His points O/U came down from 23.5 for the DEN game to 20.5 for tomorrow night. Wild.
 

Brand Name

make hers mark
Moderator
SoSH Member
Oct 6, 2010
4,450
Moving the Line
@Brand Name
How do you think about sizing prop bets vs full game bets?
Depends on my edge on the prop, same deal as a side or total. Like I had about +24% on PP u12.5 tonight. From there, I use something called the Kelly Criterion (0.25 personally), which adjusts for price, return, amount of expected value. From there, it tells me how much to spend as a percentage of my bankroll. I will include this from here on. This is based on my risk tolerance specifically and may not be yours.

But you brought up a good point about props: I can often come up with a number that has way too big of an edge, so absolutely I will not bet that much.

The book’s response to this? Given props are more easily beatable, you’ll see higher hold (6.9% at -115/-115 props is normal vs. 4.55% -110/-110 normal spread).

Furthermore, look at the offshore out Pinnacle to tell you their lack of confidence alone in this realm. For a book that isn’t opposed to taking six figures on a bet close to close on a random NFL Sunday, their props max at $250.



Good start, HRB! You sure gave me some high prop expectations but will do my best to live up to them. So far so good with PP.
 

Oil Can Dan

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2003
8,083
0-3 to 4-3
Great start HRB! Here’s a question I’ve had for awhile - what’s the thought on jumping on a team you like pregame live in game if the number has improved? Example - I didn’t see your Det +9 post till the 2nd quarter when Det was down by 13 or so and the line was around Det +12.5. Does the jump/don’t jump totally depend on what’s happened to that point? As someone not very schooled on the NBA I feel like that early in the game it’s generally a good move so long as there’s nothing obvious like a key player injured or in foul trouble, but I suspect it’s not as simple as that.
 

RG33

Certain Class of Poster
SoSH Member
Nov 28, 2005
7,290
CA
First bet of the NBA season went well, despite the Celts line moving late on me:

All Sports Wagering, Horse Racing and Full Casino Online.jpeg
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,719
Great start HRB! Here’s a question I’ve had for awhile - what’s the thought on jumping on a team you like pregame live in game if the number has improved? Example - I didn’t see your Det +9 post till the 2nd quarter when Det was down by 13 or so and the line was around Det +12.5. Does the jump/don’t jump totally depend on what’s happened to that point? As someone not very schooled on the NBA I feel like that early in the game it’s generally a good move so long as there’s nothing obvious like a key player injured or in foul trouble, but I suspect it’s not as simple as that.
I do this frequently in the NBA especially where a quick little run, in a game of runs, can allow me to add to my side at a better number. I'll do this with Totals as well. I've heard some sharp players not buy into this concept as they feel once a game begins the numbers for value change. I am of the school that teams play to the score rather than simply mechanically playing the games possessions regardless of score. Not to go "if you never played the game you wouldn't know" but I have picked up many things from being a former player and playing to the score is 100% one of them that many incorrectly discount.

So yes I do like taking the sharp side at a better life number if I still feel they are the right side and simply on the wrong side of a run, poor shooting variance, etc.
 
Last edited:

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,719
I expect to be playing more Celtics games this season than ever before. Our defense coupled with certain opponents trying to find their rhythm I can see some 103-89 wins in our future. I missed the 1.5 opener vs Knicks so I passed as having to beat a good team on the road by margin is not the life I choose to live and our point spread is surely going to be inflated as the wins pile up. I suspect this will be the case most games as there is no edge with the Celtics sides as their level is already heavily weighted......However we are going to find some fantastic spots in fading the opponents offense in the form of Team Total Unders. Like some real real smash spots.

Another angle I'll be looking at is going to be playing ON the Celtics in-game following an opponents run and a Mazzulla (gulp) timeout. This team figures to be very good in refocusing and making the necessary defensive adjustment im these spots.

FYI, as the early season progresses these are the type of things I do with each team to look to identify hidden value. I just so happened to be tuning in to the Celtics on my rotation. Another thing I do when I'm sitting in front of a full League Pass slate is have the games I've played on my remote rotation. I do this not to scream at the tv when a player commits a turnover or throw something at the ref....but to grade my handicap of the game AND as Oil Can alluded to above, to possibly find a live spot in a game I feel I already have a good read on. What did I do wrong? What did I miss? What can I learn so I don't make the same mistake again if I did make a bad read. Ok boarding flight I can stop now lol.
 
Last edited:

Brand Name

make hers mark
Moderator
SoSH Member
Oct 6, 2010
4,450
Moving the Line
Will be giving middles quite frequently here...

-KD o30.5 points+assists -105 at pointsbet, u36.5 at DK. If you want to take one particular side it's the under. But this is a solid range to get both, with a margin of six.
-Durant PRA also has something similar with PRA: o38.5 pointsbet/Fanatics, and 44.5 at Caesars.
-Rui PRA as well at over 13.5 at PB, u18.5 at Kambi.
-For the rare arbitrage that is also a middle, Gabe Vincent boards: o1.5 +120 at MGM, u2.5 +102 at Kambi.

See a few books with 224.5 on Suns/Lakers, that's my pick for a total. Would hit that over. Specifically at that number, at the time of typing.