This is now: BB and the direction of the Patriots

Silverdude2167 said:

Okay, so do they beat the Eagles, the Dolphins at home, and the Raiders with better QB play, because we all watched those games and it sure felt they like win with a better QB. You can debate about winning yesterday if you want.

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Better QB play than the Eagles game, where Mac threw 3 touchdowns and lost the game because one of his wide receivers couldn't get his feet down on two huge plays, and his best receiver at the time in Bourne, couldn't hold onto a third down strike that would have changed the game?

Better QB play than the first Dolphins game in which the offensive line literally couldn't block anyone and Mac kept them in the game?

Through the first two weeks, those games that you think an "average" QB would have won, Mac was facing the most pressure in the league, had to get the ball out faster than all but 2 QB's in the league, and had the least separation amongst receives when he did throw the ball. If you don't want to listen to me, because you think I'm a Mac apologist, go read the Goat thread, and read what @SMU_Sox was writing after that game:

https://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/game-2-mia-goats.40522/


The real problem with this analysis is you are assuming every average quarterback would have done all of the good things Mac did in a game, and then assuming that an average quarterback also would have done none of the negative things Mac did too (as if guys like Allen, Hurts, Purdy, Mahomes, Burrow never make mistakes and I think we all agree they are better than average quarterbacks). If that were true, they wouldn't be "average" quarterbacks. Average quarterbacks make mistakes, a lot of them. You're assuming an average quarterback puts up the same numbers Mac did against the Bills. Again, that's not average quarterback play.


I will grant you they probably beat the Raiders with better quarterback play. Of course, they likely beat them if Parker can hold onto a ball that hits him right in his hands too, or Henry doesn't hold and negate a 74 yard passing touchdown to Elliott on a perfectly designed and executed play.

Yesterday, they weren't beating the Dolphins with anyone. Because they never beat the Dolphins in Miami, Mac definitely played terrible for the most part, but they weren't winning that game. Every time they had a chance to get something going, they got fucked, which is what happens in that god forsaken place every time we go down there.

BaseballJones said:

You keep Mac for 2024. This draft, you draft another QB that you PLAN on being your next starting QB. But you give him a year to learn and grow into the position, unless he absolutely blows you away in camp. So this means either getting Williams or Maye at the top of the draft and then drafting a WR and OL later, OR you draft Harrison with your top pick and then get a QB later (so a guy who is NOT either Williams or Maye but who still has a chance at being a legit NFL QB like Penix maybe). That has to be the path forward.

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Keeping Mac with his obvious replacement sitting next to him the QB room every day seems like a disaster waiting to happen. I think some of the hate on Mac's personality is over the top, but I can't imagine him being the good employee in a situation like that.

If the Pats have the good fortune to draft one of those top end guys then they need to ditch Mac and sign a cheap vet as a tutor/season starter. We'll have the money.

I get a huge chuckle at the notion that anyone could be 6-2 with this team around them.

8slim said:

Keeping Mac with his obvious replacement sitting next to him the QB room every day seems like a disaster waiting to happen. I think some of the hate on Mac's personality is over the top, but I can't imagine him being the good employee in a situation like that.

If the Pats have the good fortune to draft one of those top end guys then they need to ditch Mac and sign a cheap vet as a tutor/season starter. We'll have the money.

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Fully agree. In that scenario, you trade Mac for a 6th or just outright cut him. It won't cost much if anything in dead cap.

Edit: ~$5M. Looks like a trade would be a $2.2M dead cap hit. Both figures regardless of pre or post June 1.

BaseballJones said:

Because it's IMPOSSIBLE to ALWAYS be good. Even the best-run teams in the NFL have bad stretches. The league is designed to tear good teams down and give bad teams an opportunity to improve.

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Funny how this bad stretch coincides with the departure of a certain player.

What you're saying is BB is only as good as the players on his team. Which is perfectly fine, and fair. It's reality, really. It's the small group of fans who believe BB brings an edge in creating an NFL team, and therefore we need him as long as possible, which clearly doesn't hold up to the record. If we could admit that BB's value is in coaching and not team-building, but we're stuck with the problem that we can't separate the two, we might be onto a clearer vision.

8slim said:

OK, we completely disagree then. I look at this offense and see dumpster fire everywhere. 3/5ths of the OL needs fixing. The WR unit is a joke outside of Bourne and maybe Douglas. The RBs are well below league average. The TEs can't block.

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This is where I am right now. I think it would be foolish to invest premium draft capital in a QB (unless he's going to sit for a year) until some of these other holes are addressed. It would just be the same problems over and over, maybe even worse if Onwenu and Trent Brown walk. They need to build up the overall talent level of the team before even thinking about plugging in a qb. Unless they get an offer like the Jets got for Darnold, I would keep Mac here for 2024 and build around him, and find a guy later.

I do think there will be a market for Mac in the offseason. His contract will be pretty cheap (compared to some other backup QBs) and could be an upgrade/cost savings at the backup spot for a number of teams looking to make a playoff run in 2024. But I wouldnt dump him for a say a 4th, I think he has more value here in terms of contract and team building.

8slim said:

Keeping Mac with his obvious replacement sitting next to him the QB room every day seems like a disaster waiting to happen. I think some of the hate on Mac's personality is over the top, but I can't imagine him being the good employee in a situation like that.

If the Pats have the good fortune to draft one of those top end guys then they need to ditch Mac and sign a cheap vet as a tutor/season starter. We'll have the money.

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I agree completely. I don't think we're going to be bad enough to get into the Williams/Maye sweepstakes anyway (although I prefer Maye over Williams myself at this point). There are other quarterback that could pan out, but that's a long way of scouting before figuring that out (not many folks were talking about Anthony Richardson on Halloween of last year).

I wish we weren't a year early on that 2026 draft class at QB. That class might be loaded.

8slim said:

Keeping Mac with his obvious replacement sitting next to him the QB room every day seems like a disaster waiting to happen. I think some of the hate on Mac's personality is over the top, but I can't imagine him being the good employee in a situation like that.

If the Pats have the good fortune to draft one of those top end guys then they need to ditch Mac and sign a cheap vet as a tutor/season starter. We'll have the money.

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I don't trust BB to pick the next QB, straight up. And neither should you. This is the problem with a sphinx at HC and GM - this team is in complete shambles, with no clear direction, and BB is going to give you the media middle finger he always does. It's his ball until Kraft takes it away. It's beyond frustrating as a fan. The trust is lost.

Salva135 said:

Funny how this bad stretch coincides with the departure of a certain player.

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Well, I mean, yeah. Losing the best player ever at the most important position on the field is going to make a dent in your success, yes?

Salva135 said:

What you're saying is BB is only as good as the players on his team. Which is perfectly fine, and fair. It's reality, really. It's the small group of fans who believe BB brings an edge in creating an NFL team, and therefore we need him as long as possible, which clearly doesn't hold up to the record. If we could admit that BB's value is in coaching and not team-building, but we're stuck with the problem that we can't separate the two, we might be onto a clearer vision.

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It's difficult to coach your way to a much better result than the talent on your team would give you. But would a lesser coach than BB get 7, 10, and 8 wins out of the rosters that the Pats had in 2020, 2021, and 2022? I doubt it. But I could be wrong.

For sure that if you want BB the coach, you get BB the GM. I don't think BB the GM is as bad as some here think - I still think he's pretty good at this part, though no longer "great" - so I'm willing to have both. But YMMV.

8slim said:

Keeping Mac with his obvious replacement sitting next to him the QB room every day seems like a disaster waiting to happen. I think some of the hate on Mac's personality is over the top, but I can't imagine him being the good employee in a situation like that.

If the Pats have the good fortune to draft one of those top end guys then they need to ditch Mac and sign a cheap vet as a tutor/season starter. We'll have the money.

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Fair point, and I could be persuaded along these lines. But for sure I think they need to get another QB early in this next draft. 100%.

Minshew, Mayfield, Brissett, Jameis, Dobbs, Tyrod are the cream of the non-Cousins crop of free agent QBs. I honestly don't think any of them would offer meaningfully worse results than Mac, but even harder to argue they'd be meaningfully better. If they draft a QB high and choose to go the "veteran caretaker" route instead of keeping Mac, it would be solely due to locker room concerns.

Salva135 said:

I don't trust BB to pick the next QB, straight up. And neither should you. This is the problem with a sphinx at HC and GM - this team is in complete shambles, with no clear direction, and BB is going to give you the media middle finger he always does. It's his ball until Kraft takes it away. It's beyond frustrating as a fan. The trust is lost.

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Alright, we get it. Can you bring anything else to this discussion aside from posting about how much Bill sucks over and over?

rodderick said:

Minshew, Mayfield, Brissett, Jameis, Dobbs, Tyrod are the cream of the non-Cousins crop of free agent QBs. I honestly don't think any of them would offer meaningfully worse results than Mac, but even harder to argue they'd be meaningfully better. If they draft a QB high and choose to go the "veteran caretaker" route instead of keeping Mac, it would be solely due to locker room concerns.

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I couldn’t see Belichick using a high first round pick, then allocating the amount of cash that it would take to bring in any of the veteran free agent quarterbacks listed above. Like it or not, he just doesn’t value the position as much as the rest of the football world does. This is the same guy that wouldn’t pay Tom Brady at the end.

rodderick said:

If perception of the player and his fit for the team at the time of drafting carries weight in the evaluation (and I would argue it shouldn't, why should you gain or lose points as a GM based on what other people thought of your pick/your needs at the time?), Strange would need to perform like Zack Martin to be a success.

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Are you suggesting OL wasn't a team need? Was anyone suggesting there was a particular skillset Patriots Guards needed that Strange didn't have?

As for the player himself, I'm not convinced he's as bad as people are saying. He has had a few bad stretches/games, but he's also seemingly played ok when the Tackles aren't complete and utter shit. My guess is he will get a second contract, though not on the 5th year option.

I think the biggest fault of BB the past few years was not paying up for the really good talent that was available on the OL this past offseason. And not keeping a sure thing in Meyers. Mac isn't the guy, but I think he did the right thing trying with him. Skill position talent at free agency has been pretty shitty the past 3-4 offseasons, unfortunately.

Ed Hillel said:

Are you suggesting OL wasn't a team need? Was anyone suggesting there was a particular skillset Patriots Guards needed that Strange didn't have?

As for the player himself, I'm not convinced he's as bad as people are saying. He has had a few bad stretches/games, but he's also seemingly played ok when the Tackles aren't complete and utter shit. My guess is he will get a second contract, though not on the 5th year option.

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It's not a matter of skill set, they chose to use a first round pick on a position with very low overall value and chose a player most people didn't believe belonged at that spot. You plug left guard in the third/fourth round, teams do that all the time. The Patriots do it all the time. Or just give Ted Karras the nothing contract he got from the Bengals after he played really well at that spot for you in 2021.

BaseballJones said:

Well, I mean, yeah. Losing the best player ever at the most important position on the field is going to make a dent in your success, yes?



It's difficult to coach your way to a much better result than the talent on your team would give you. But would a lesser coach than BB get 7, 10, and 8 wins out of the rosters that the Pats had in 2020, 2021, and 2022? I doubt it. But I could be wrong.

For sure that if you want BB the coach, you get BB the GM. I don't think BB the GM is as bad as some here think - I still think he's pretty good at this part, though no longer "great" - so I'm willing to have both. But YMMV.

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So what is the point of coaching? To not play below your talent level?

Salem's Lot said:

I couldn’t see Belichick using a high first round pick, then allocating the amount of cash that it would take to bring in any of the veteran free agent quarterbacks listed above. Like it or not, he just doesn’t value the position as much as the rest of the football world does. This is the same guy that wouldn’t pay Tom Brady at the end.

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Except the last sentence is completely false.

Was (Not Wasdin) said:

This is where I am right now. I think it would be foolish to invest premium draft capital in a QB (unless he's going to sit for a year) until some of these other holes are addressed. It would just be the same problems over and over, maybe even worse if Onwenu and Trent Brown walk. They need to build up the overall talent level of the team before even thinking about plugging in a qb. Unless they get an offer like the Jets got for Darnold, I would keep Mac here for 2024 and build around him, and find a guy later.

I do think there will be a market for Mac in the offseason. His contract will be pretty cheap (compared to some other backup QBs) and could be an upgrade/cost savings at the backup spot for a number of teams looking to make a playoff run in 2024. But I wouldnt dump him for a say a 4th, I think he has more value here in terms of contract and team building.

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I hear you but there's no guarantee you find a guy later, especially after building up the overall talent level of the team such that you're (hopefully) not picking top 5 again. If you have a shot at Williams or Maye you absolutely have to take it. If you don't, you have to draft someone in round 2 or 3. Maybe one of Nix, Penix, or McCarthy falls or you trade up to the back end of the 1st ala Lamar. But you need to keep taking shots at the position, every year, from now until you find a QB. You're not going to get lucky every time with a Jalen Hurts or Lamar Jackson. The Titans spent premium picks in back to back years on Malik Willis (3rd) and Will Levis (2nd). No one in Tennessee is going to care about wasting that 3rd rounder if Levis pans out.

lexrageorge said:

Except the last sentence is completely false.

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How so?

8slim said:

Alright, we get it. Can you bring anything else to this discussion aside from posting about how much Bill sucks over and over?

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I'm ready for a new regime, that's my contribution. I admit I enjoy employing the Socratic method to people who claim BB is indispensable, or it "could" be a disaster if we moved on.

I'm not even sure BB views this team as problematic. He's not going to sell or acquire anyone at the deadline. And I'm not sure what record it would take.

BaseballJones said:

Fair point, and I could be persuaded along these lines. But for sure I think they need to get another QB early in this next draft. 100%.

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I'm not saying they shouldn't devote a high-end draft pick to a QB. I'm saying that if they do use a first on a QB, then they need to jettison Mac.

rodderick said:

Or just give Ted Karras the nothing contract he got from the Bengals after he played really well at that spot for you in 2021.

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I believe SMU Sox had a great post about this a few weeks ago. Basically he noted how Bill could have retained a bunch of OLmen for reasonable money, and used the Strange pick (and others) to address other critical needs. It's all part of the general mess that has been Bill's stewardship of the offense since the offseason heading into 2019, IMHO.

8slim said:

I'm not saying they shouldn't devote a high-end draft pick to a QB. I'm saying that if they do use a first on a QB, then they need to jettison Mac.

I believe SMU Sox had a great post about this a few weeks ago. Basically he noted how Bill could have retained a bunch of OLmen for reasonable money, and used the Strange pick (and others) to address other critical needs. It's all part of the general mess that has been Bill's stewardship of the offense since the offseason heading into 2019, IMHO.

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Yeah it all stemmed from Thuney and Mason and it was a great post /point.

Wasn’t there talk about how they were pissed at Karras for even considering leaving, and refused to match the modest increase Cincy was offering him? Seems like they let him go over spite.

ehaz said:

But you need to keep taking shots at the position, every year, from now until you find a QB.

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Bingo. It's by far the most important position in the game. I'm a huge believer that more teams should be drafting a QB annually.

Petagine in a Bottle said:

Wasn’t there talk about how they were pissed at Karras for even considering leaving, and refused to match the modest increase Cincy was offering him? Seems like they let him go over spite.

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Spite?

In all seriousness, do you have a source on this?

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fP0MXJAQhmo

Petagine in a Bottle said:

Wasn’t there talk about how they were pissed at Karras for even considering leaving, and refused to match the modest increase Cincy was offering him? Seems like they let him go over spite.

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What I heard was that they offered him a contract, he got a better deal from Cincy, went back to the Patriots with that deal giving them a chance to match it, and in response they made a final offer that was smaller than the first one, lol.

Salva135 said:

So what is the point of coaching? To not play below your talent level?

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-sigh-

rodderick said:

What I heard was that they offered him a contract, he got a better deal from Cincy, went back to the Patriots with that deal giving them a chance to match it, and in response they made a final offer that was smaller than the first one, lol.

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That sounds right. But, yeah, same idea.

rodderick said:

What I heard was that they offered him a contract, he got a better deal from Cincy, went back to the Patriots with that deal giving them a chance to match it, and in response they made a final offer that was smaller than the first one, lol.

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Heard from where?

BigJimEd said:

Heard from where?

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It was reported somewhere, fairly recently. Trying to track down.

BigJimEd said:

Heard from where?

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The Patriots.com guys.

rodderick said:

The Patriots.com guys.

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Thanks. I'll track it down

Jeff Howe reported it around the time Karras signed with Cincy in the 2022 offseason —

View: https://twitter.com/jeffphowe/status/1503427338943479810?s=20

BaseballJones said:

-sigh-

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Why don't you spare us this kind of stuff and lay out BB's value and some arguments for or against - just keep it simple so we can all respond and debate. I'm not here to debase the conversation, this is the most pivotal point in this team's history since 1993 in terms of making actual decisions.

BaseballJones said:

-sigh-

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This.


The extent that clickbait shit in general is repeated here as if fact is depressing sometimes.

Salva135 said:

Why don't you spare us this kind of stuff and lay out BB's value and some arguments for or against - just keep it simple so we can all respond and debate. I'm not here to debase the conversation, this is the most pivotal point in this team's history since 1993 in terms of making actual decisions.

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I thought this post of yours - "So what is the point of coaching? To not play below your talent level?" - deserved a -sigh- response.

I've explained ad nauseam BB's value - not only did he orchestrate the greatest dynastic run in the history of the sport, but a thorough evaluation of his drafting says that he's actually still pretty good at this. He's not elite as a GM, but he's still pretty good. But as a coach, the general consensus (that I've heard) in the NFL is that he's still good at the coaching part. It's easy to look at the last couple of years and say, well, however good he USED to be, he's clearly not THAT anymore, as the results show.

But I look at it a little bigger than that. I don't think BB suddenly forgot how to coach football. In my conversations with Matthew Slater for my book, he's expressed just how incredible BB is, and how he's adapted and altered his style to a changing league and changing culture.

Even the greatest coaches have rough patches. The guy with the most wins in NFL history went through this stretch: 8-8, 8-7, 6-10, 8-8 from 1986-1989. And that's with a future HOF player at QB, and in a world without a salary cap, and that was coming off seasons with 12, 14, and 12 wins. They rebuilt and went 12-4 in 1990. Did Shula forget how to coach during the 1986-1989 run? Obviously not.

Every team goes through crappy times. This is as bad as we've seen the Patriots in a really, really long time. So it feels hopeless. I don't for a second think that BB has forgotten how to coach. I think this is a rough stretch, and I don't know who is available that would do a better job than him over the next few years.

BaseballJones said:

A thorough evaluation of his drafting says that he's actually still pretty good at this...

The general consensus (that I've heard) in the NFL is that he's still good at the coaching part

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If he is still good at both, then why are they 2-6?

Maybe the answer is "injuries", and I will grant you that maybe that could be worth a win. Even generously, 2 wins.

4-4 still isn't good. It's .500.

tims4wins said:

If he is still good at both, then why are they 2-6?

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See my post right above yours.

BaseballJones said:

See my post right above yours.

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Last I checked Shula still had Marino when they bounced back in 1990.

Can we all take a step back and agree on a couple of things? Namely, (1) that the NFL is designed to bring down good teams and build parity - from the scheduling to the draft to the salary cap, and (2) that every great franchise and coach and GM has/have had bad stretches even in the midst of their greatness?

Because both of those things are objectively true. We shouldn't have to "agree" on things that are objectively true, but, well, it seems we must.

tims4wins said:

Last I checked Shula still had Marino when they bounced back in 1990.

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So then WTF happened for those four years when they weren't good? Did Shula suddenly suck at his job? Did he forget how to coach or build a team? They had Marino in his prime then.

BaseballJones said:

Can we all take a step back and agree on a couple of things? Namely, (1) that the NFL is designed to bring down good teams and build parity - from the scheduling to the draft to the salary cap, and (2) that every great franchise and coach and GM has/have had bad stretches even in the midst of their greatness?

Because both of those things are objectively true. We shouldn't have to "agree" on things that are objectively true, but, well, it seems we must.

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We all agree on this.

What we don't agree on is the path forward. Just because teams have bad stretches, doesn't mean that the Pats are due to bounce back. It's like assuming you will hit red the next 5 times because you hit black the previous 5. No, you'll hit red on 50% of the time going forward.

tims4wins said:

We all agree on this.

What we don't agree on is the path forward. Just because teams have bad stretches, doesn't mean that the Pats are due to bounce back. It's like assuming you will hit red the next 5 times because you hit black the previous 5. No, you'll hit red on 50% of the time going forward.

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Ok if we all agree on this, then asking, "If BB is still good, why are they 2-6?" is a dumb question (and T4W, you know I have the utmost respect for you).

I'm having a hard time believing how much energy is being spent in this thread responding to someone who's trying to argue that the main reason to move on from Bill is that we don't know what he's motivated by. Really? I'm happy to read a hundred posts on how bad his GM track record has been since the Rams Super Bowl, but we're really questioning if he actually wants to win?

I'm glad the criticism of the Mac pick has steered toward being bad because it was bad to be in the situation that it needed to be made. Sitting on the clock there he was 1000% the right pick and I say that as someone who would be happy if he were traded for a 5th rounder tomorrow. Maybe I'm just not realizing it's different people making each point, but the idea to not trust Bill with a top 5 pick because he won't go QB or WR and also shitting on the Mac pick are completely contradictory to me.

BaseballJones said:

So then WTF happened for those four years when they weren't good? Did Shula suddenly suck at his job? Did he forget how to coach or build a team? They had Marino in his prime then.

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I'm not old enough to know / remember. But from a career arc standpoint, that seems much closer to the Pats in 2005-2013 when they didn't win for a while, from the standpoint that BB / Shula were much younger at that point in time.

To show much the game has changed, Dan Marino’s career QB rating is lower than Mac Jones (86.4 vs 87.6).

Smiling Joe Hesketh said:

I am old enough to remember.

The Dolphins' defense got old in a hurry and needed to be replaced wholesale, and Shula.....really wasn't all that good at doing so.

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So it's kind of like when the Pats defense sucked in 2009-2011 but BB > Shula and TB12 > Marino so the Pats overcame?