Honestly, I think Sale needs to start given his flashes of former glory and how thin our rotation is but the idea of him pitching out of the bullpen again is an interesting thought that I hadn‘t considered. Not sure how the irregular schedule would work with his age and health but it’s intriguing.u guys still need 2 or 3 SP and 2 RP i wouild move sale to CL
While I’m not sure where I stand on this issue I think the counterpoint is that Sale is made of glass and this would maybe make that next injury less likely to hitSale is the #2, at least, right now, no? Hell, his 2.1 fWAR last year ranked behind only Crawford, and ahead of Bello. I don’t see how moving him to the pen makes any sense given the current pitchers under control.
IDK, maybe so, maybe not? Maybe not throwing 85 pitches in an outing would help. Or maybe making 60 appearances would have the opposite effect. Personally, I feel Sale the last two years when out there has been either hot or cold, not much inbetween. Survivable for a starter-- the bad games are lost cause, the good ones winnable-- not so enticing for a closer. I think regularity is the main thing you want there.While I’m not sure where I stand on this issue I think the counterpoint is that Sale is made of glass and this would maybe make that next injury less likely to hit
Yeah, I’m done banking on Sale for anything. It’s not his fault he’s made of glass, and I know no one is more frustrated by his inability to pitch than him, but relying on the guy for anything beyond being a cheerleader in the dugout is asking for disaster at this point. You just have to plan for him to be unavailable as sad as it is.That's one of those things that IMO you don't even consider when trying to construct this team. You try to get two of your top targets and if Sale provides anything remotely close to your "enormous IF" you're incredibly blessed.
How does that take into consideration his replacement? It’d be nice to have 5 starters all at a 3.80 FIP but if they can only throw 100 innings then where does the other 180-220 come from?I think people may have over learned this lesson. Like, Sale was worth 1.7 rWAR/2.1 fWAR last season. 100ish IP of 3.80 FIP.
That’s pretty good. We need more from him, but it’s not nothing. He ranked 65th in fWAR among pitchers.
They actually look like they could be related too.Basically, we've spent years fantasizing about what if Bobby Dalbec could get his K% down from 35% or so to "just" 30%. That's O'Neill.
That's one of those things that IMO you don't even consider when trying to construct this team. You try to get two of your top targets and if Sale provides anything remotely close to your "enormous IF" you're incredibly blessed.
This is exactly how I feel about Sale @YTF and in many ways the exact reason why @Sandy Leon Trotsky.How does that take into consideration his replacement? It’d be nice to have 5 starters all at a 3.80 FIP but if they can only throw 100 innings then where does the other 180-220 come from?
Also just to add a bit to my position, I don't totally write Sale off as some of his injuries have been flukie. My concern is a combination of some of the past arm issues coupled with the combined loss of playing time due to all of the injuries. At 34 years old, there's a lot of rust to shake off going into every season considering the lack of continuity from season to season. As mentioned upthread, if you were to say that Sale can give you 120-150 at 85% of what he once was, sign me up. But IMO it should be considered a huge gift that lands in the team's lap AFTER securing two other pitchers to help Bello round out the top 3 of the rotation.This is exactly how I feel about Sale @YTF and in many ways the exact reason why @Sandy Leon Trotsky.
It's obviously incredibly un-analytic and for that I apologize, but generally I think of it like this.
Which is better for a team to have - Chris Sale with his 12 starts of lets say excellence and then 20 starts where you have to cobble together innings from Matt Dermody and Kyle Barraclough or 32 starts of "alright" from a Chris Bassitt type.
I think of it as being you have an excellent chance to win 8 of those 12 starts with Sale (8-4 record) and very little chance to win those starts from guys that don't belong in the big leagues - and even if you do, you've probably decimated your bullpen to get there (so call it 7-13 in those other games). Overall makes them 15-17.
Someone like Bassitt who keeps you in games nearly all the time and takes the ball 32 games a year, making life easier on your manager, your bullpen and your team overall and you go something like 18-14. Pretty big swing, at least in my opinion. Even though one might have the awesome fWAR score but forces you to start garbage 20 times a year. The other doesn't, but generally provides you quality innings and chances to win more games.
If you have a stable of good / decent prospects at the upper minors level, you can certainly take a shot with someone like the 2021-present version of Chris Sale. But the Red Sox do not.
*It's also why I'm not crazy about giving big money to Snell. He misses about 1.5 months more often than not and walks too many guys. The high's are incredible (2018; 2023) but the lack of reliability the other 3/4 of the seasons can torpedo a lot of years pretty quickly.
Yup - sure it's entirely possible Sale could do just that. IE, Stanton was a relatively healthy beast for NYY in 2021. Ellsbury had 2011 and 2013. Tyler O'Neill had 2021. The Red Sox should put themselves in a position where IF that happens with Sale, they're all of a sudden contending for the World Series. Not in a scenario where they NEED that to happen (and like four other unexpectedly great things) just to contend for WC3.Also just to add a bit to my position, I don't totally write Sale off as some of his injuries have been flukie. My concern is a combination of some of the past arm issues coupled with the combined loss of playing time due to all of the injuries. At 34 years old, there's a lot of rust to shake off going into every season considering the lack of continuity from season to season. As mentioned upthread, if you were to say that Sale can give you 120-150 at 85% of what he once was, sign me up. But IMO it should be considered a huge gift that lands in the team's lap AFTER securing two other pitchers to help Bello round out the top 3 of the rotation.
Yeah, problem is that the same is true of Houck and Whitlock, for sure. Which leaves us with Bello, maybe Crawford, and…..?The thought, I would imagine, is he is so erratic with pitching in terms of giving you consistent IP, it might not be worth even penciling him for a rotation spot. There is an argument there but I wouldn't be sold.
Yea Bloom was very bad at rotation construction among other things.Yeah, problem is that the same is true of Houck and Whitlock, for sure. Which leaves us with Bello, maybe Crawford, and…..?
Which is why those of us saying the Sox need to add at least one SP2 and one SP3 type this off-season say that.Yeah, problem is that the same is true of Houck and Whitlock, for sure. Which leaves us with Bello, maybe Crawford, and…..?
Did we just become best friends?Yea Bloom was very bad at rotation construction among other things.
While Sale's 2022 injuries were very flukey, his 2023 injuries seemed much more consistent with his body just breaking down from the strain of pitching. I was more optimistic going into last season because the previous injuries had been more flukes.Also just to add a bit to my position, I don't totally write Sale off as some of his injuries have been flukie. My concern is a combination of some of the past arm issues coupled with the combined loss of playing time due to all of the injuries. At 34 years old, there's a lot of rust to shake off going into every season considering the lack of continuity from season to season.
Per WARP he's lower on the totem pole. But he's a perfectly competent back of the rotation starter (because I have better odds of winning tomorrow night's Powerball than Sale does of making 24 starts next year). Not sure his physique/throwing motion combo holds up to daily throwing out of the pen.Sale is the #2, at least, right now, no? Hell, his 2.1 fWAR last year ranked behind only Crawford, and ahead of Bello. I don’t see how moving him to the pen makes any sense given the current pitchers under control.
You know, looking at the last few years vote totals, a single first-place vote for AL Cy Young would pretty much always get a pitcher into the top 10, and some years a single lower vote would do the job as well; in 2018 and 2019 fewer than 10 pitchers even got votes. Can you imagine if a single BBWAA voter decided to trigger Sale's 2025 option just for fun?If Sale finishes in the top 10 of Cy Young Award voting (and is healthy, as he probably would have to be in order get in the top 10), then we won't have to give him an extension, as that would trigger his 2025 option
Not to just +1, but this is where I am too.I'd be on the phone trying desperately to trade him now.
There are plenty of smart people on this thread (and I mean that in total sincerity) that absolutely believe Sale is going to start 30 games this season and that his injuries are all fluky - and they could be very right. So I'd be finding any GMs that feel that way also, and dealing him for whatever I can get.
I'd utilize him as trade bait, plain and simple. If nobody bites, I'd look at him as the 6th starter. When he's healthy and can pitch, awesome, because he's still pretty good when he does. But I plan 5 rotation spots without him in any of them.
I’m going to go out on a limb and say that Sale has a better chance of making 24 starts than you do of winning tomorrow night’s Powerball.Per WARP he's lower on the totem pole. But he's a perfectly competent back of the rotation starter (because I have better odds of winning tomorrow night's Powerball than Sale does of making 24 starts next year). Not sure his physique/throwing motion combo holds up to daily throwing out of the pen.
I wouldn’t trade him. He’s one of the main sources of championship upside on the team.I'd be on the phone trying desperately to trade him now.
There are plenty of smart people on this thread (and I mean that in total sincerity) that absolutely believe Sale is going to start 30 games this season and that his injuries are all fluky - and they could be very right. So I'd be finding any GMs that feel that way also, and dealing him for whatever I can get.
I'd utilize him as trade bait, plain and simple. If nobody bites, I'd look at him as the 6th starter. When he's healthy and can pitch, awesome, because he's still pretty good when he does. But I plan 5 rotation spots without him in any of them.
I'm not saying you're wrong. What do I know. I also think there are probably GMs out there who think that way and would give up a decent enough prospect for 1/$10m of Chris Sale (assume we eat the remainder to get a better prospect). I'd find that team. If there are three GMs like that (which is totally plausible because there are plenty of very smart people on this board that think that way) maybe you get a little bit of a bidding war and get better prospects.I wouldn’t trade him. He’s one of the main sources of championship upside on the team.
If we do sign Yamamoto or Montgomery and acquire a mid-rotation type (Lugo, Imanaga, or whomever), *and* Bello continues his progression, *and* Sale can make 20+ well-timed starts, *and* Crawford doesn’t totally pumpkin, suddenly we have one of the better rotations in the sport.
A ton has to go right, of course, but each piece is plausible.
The average the last 4 years is 7.75. Hell, eliminate weird covid year and it's still 10.3. My odds are better.I’m going to go out on a limb and say that Sale has a better chance of making 24 starts than you do of winning tomorrow night’s Powerball.
He’s reached that threshold eight times since moving to the rotation!
29, 30, 30, 26, 31, 32, 32, 27, 25, 0, 9, 2, 20.
Are you really that confident that the next number in that sequence is under 24? Hell, the *average* is 22.5.
The odds of winning the powerball are 1 in 300 million. Last year he made 20, and before 2020 he made 25+ for eight straight years. But to call him "back of the rotation" is just silly. His highest FIP ever is 3.8. I think all of us are so burned by how painful 2020-2022 was that we're remembering the guy as worse than he is. The dude has the highest K/9 in baseball history (per BBRef) and threw 100 innings last year. He's probably never going to be a thirty start horse but it blows my mind that people don't think he has talent anymore.Per WARP he's lower on the totem pole. But he's a perfectly competent back of the rotation starter (because I have better odds of winning tomorrow night's Powerball than Sale does of making 24 starts next year). Not sure his physique/throwing motion combo holds up to daily throwing out of the pen.
"Made of glass" seems like a bit much for a guy who's 13th among active pitchers in career innings at 1,780, to say nothing of how willingly he's sacrificed his body to win games for the Sox. If you want to speculate about his shoulder, there may be a basis for that, but UCLs and hand bones heal, as most pitchers and people who've fallen off their bike can tell you. He's not a porcelain doll, he's more like the ultimate warrior Boston fans in all sports are always clamoring for. I'd start him. If his shoulder has limited mileage left, let him use it the way he prefers.Yeah, I’m done banking on Sale for anything. It’s not his fault he’s made of glass, and I know no one is more frustrated by his inability to pitch than him, but relying on the guy for anything beyond being a cheerleader in the dugout is asking for disaster at this point. You just have to plan for him to be unavailable as sad as it is.
Fair enough. I may have been overly harsh in that assessment but I do think heavily relying on him going forward, all things considered, is a risky proposition."Made of glass" seems like a bit much for a guy who's 13th among active pitchers in career innings at 1,780, to say nothing of how willingly he's sacrificed his body to win games for the Sox. If you want to speculate about his shoulder, there may be a basis for that, but UCLs and hand bones heal, as most pitchers and people who've fallen off their bike can tell you. He's not a porcelain doll, he's more like the ultimate warrior Boston fans in all sports are always clamoring for. I'd start him. If his shoulder has limited mileage left, let him use it the way he prefers.
Yeah, the rotation will likely have several guys whose past includes enough injury to call relying on them some level of risk, and in Sale's case whatever they can do to limit the strain will reduce the temptation of fate. But IMO (FWIW) skipping starts or spreading out rest with extra starters is probably better for him and his still considerable upside than changing his routines entirely. [Not that I don't have a little nagging voice thinking he'd be a tremendous closer.]Fair enough. I may have been overly harsh in that assessment but I do think heavily relying on him going forward, all things considered, is a risky proposition.
He’s a back of the rotation starter because if he makes 20 starts again it’s going to be a sign that Boston’s winning the World Series. He has the sort of physique that you wish pitchers didn’t combined with a violent throwing motion. You have to accept that the injuries are part of the equation at his age and have a swing arm lined up to make all the starts he won’t (and luckily Boston has a couple of those guys). If you’re counting on him to be one of your top 3 starters you’re going to be in trouble.The odds of winning the powerball are 1 in 300 million. Last year he made 20, and before 2020 he made 25+ for eight straight years. But to call him "back of the rotation" is just silly. His highest FIP ever is 3.8. I think all of us are so burned by how painful 2020-2022 was that we're remembering the guy as worse than he is. The dude has the highest K/9 in baseball history (per BBRef) and threw 100 innings last year. He's probably never going to be a thirty start horse but it blows my mind that people don't think he has talent anymore.
If there’s one guy I can see signing a “I owe you guys one.” extension at a discount, it would definitely be him.To me, the ideal situation would be to pencil in Sale as the #4 starter on a staff with FA1, FA2, Bello, Sale, Crawford/Pivetta/Whitlock/Houck and hope that you get 15-20 starts out of him where he clocks in at a 3.50-4.00 ERA. That would be a home run to me, and we’d likely see him deliver on a pretty solid season. If you get 25+ starts with a 3.50 ERA -4.00 ERA it is a grand slam of a season, and you offer him a 2 year extension at $30M and remind him that he has basically stolen $125M from the Red Sox the last 4 years (I genuinely think he would take a below-market “make up for it” contract if he pitched healthy and well this year, based on what we know of his personality).
I can't help but to wonder if tomorrow night's Powerball numbers are contained in this post.I’m going to go out on a limb and say that Sale has a better chance of making 24 starts than you do of winning tomorrow night’s Powerball.
He’s reached that threshold eight times since moving to the rotation!
29, 30, 30, 26, 31, 32, 32, 27, 25, 0, 9, 2, 20.
Are you really that confident that the next number in that sequence is under 24? Hell, the *average* is 22.5.
I don’t think it’s more likely than not—I’m aware he’s a pitcher in his 30s—but I think it’s more likely than many people seem to think.
I wouldn’t trade him. He’s one of the main sources of championship upside on the team.
If we do sign Yamamoto or Montgomery and acquire a mid-rotation type (Lugo, Imanaga, or whomever), *and* Bello continues his progression, *and* Sale can make 20+ well-timed starts, *and* Crawford doesn’t totally pumpkin, suddenly we have one of the better rotations in the sport.
A ton has to go right, of course, but each piece is plausible.
Thank you.The odds of winning the powerball are 1 in 300 million. Last year he made 20, and before 2020 he made 25+ for eight straight years. But to call him "back of the rotation" is just silly. His highest FIP ever is 3.8. I think all of us are so burned by how painful 2020-2022 was that we're remembering the guy as worse than he is. The dude has the highest K/9 in baseball history (per BBRef) and threw 100 innings last year. He's probably never going to be a thirty start horse but it blows my mind that people don't think he has talent anymore.
LOLI can't help but to wonder if tomorrow night's Powerball numbers are contained in this post.
I truly don’t get the Verlander comp. Sale started breaking down at age 29 when he missed roughly a month and a half leading into the 2018 playoffs (27 starts that year.) The next he started 25. Then had the TJS. He made 9 starts at age 32; 2 at 33 and 20 at 34.Thank you.
Old pitchers are old pitchers. On the one hand, they’re older than most pitchers, and pitching is bad for you. On the other hand, there’s a survivorship bias at play. If you’re still starting in your mid-30s, it might be because you have certain qualities that make that possible.
Verlander had a few years in his mid-30s when he was hurt a lot and missed a lot of time. He threw 6 IP in his age 37 season, 0 at age 38. It would have been easy to write him off at that point, and many did. He’s thrown ~340 competitive IP in two seasons since.
The other major difference is that Verlander has a pitcher’s physique and a motion that doesn’t guarantee injury. You’re right, they’re not at all similar.I truly don’t get the Verlander comp. Sale started breaking down at age 29 when he missed roughly a month and a half leading into the 2018 playoffs (27 starts that year.) The next he started 25. Then had the TJS. He made 9 starts at age 32; 2 at 33 and 20 at 34.
Verlander started 33(age 29); 34(30); 32(31); 20(32 - my guess is this is what you mean); 34 (33); 33(34); 34(35); 34 (36); had TJS (37 and 38) with 28 starts (39) and 27 starts (40).
Granted, Verlander is a robot, but ages 29-34 Sale has made 83 starts. In the same age time frame Verlander made 186. They aren’t at all similar.
To be clear, if Sale had “only” missed 2020 and 2021 (ironically the same seasons as Verlander) while starting 30 games in ‘18; 30 in ‘19; then started 28 and 27 games coming back from TJS, there is no way I’d be saying “he can’t be counted on.” I‘d be saying to extend him.
But he didn’t.
Damn you, now I have to play them. Bastard.I can't help but to wonder if tomorrow night's Powerball numbers are contained in this post.
Is there such a thing? Honest question. I thought one of the sabermetric conclusions of the early 2000s was that there isn’t. All the “inverted W” talk, etc.The other major difference is that Verlander has a pitcher’s physique and a motion that doesn’t guarantee injury.