Perry with an interesting take on the draft comp situation
Here goes nothin':
If a split is inevitable, is it more likely than not that the Krafts and Bill Belichick would prefer to split amicably?
Because if that's the case, then I think that diminishes the likelihood of the Patriots getting compensation for Belichick in a trade. An amicable split, I think, would be a quick one. And coming up with a trade that makes sense for all involved could take some time.
That being said, perhaps there's a location Belichick would prefer to coach next. Perhaps he'd make that known to his bosses. If the Krafts and another ownership group can work out an exchange in short order, that could work.
Belichick wouldn't be remembered as a coach who was fired at the end, and Robert Kraft wouldn't be remembered as an owner who fired the greatest coach of all time. And getting compensation for Belichick would of course help Kraft as he hopes to oversee a rebuild that will have to be done over time through the draft.
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But if the Krafts hold onto Belichick, who's
under contract through 2024, and they refuse to budge on parting with him until they get the kind of trade offer they want, then things could get ugly. Head-coaching gigs may fill quickly after the season, and Belichick could be left without a place to sit when the music stops, which may lead to a firing. Or if Belichick is informed a deal has been worked out for him to go somewhere he doesn't want to be,
he could pull a Rob Gronkowki and refuse to go.
Again... ugly.
If the goal is to end things elegantly, that kind of back-and-forth would seemingly blow up any hopes of that happening. That's why maybe what's best for the roster (trying to get a pick for Belichick) might not be what's best for the organization and fanbase (parting quickly and maintaining a relationship that can be celebrated at length at the appropriate time).