Recent content by Filet-O-Fisk

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    #DFG: Canceling the Noise

      He looked like he was lying.  I could see it in his eyes. 
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    #DFG: Canceling the Noise

    The Wells report was designed to justify the upcoming punishment. The punishment was needed because there was national outrage over Deflate-gate.  Whether cheating actually happened or not is immaterial.  Fan and media outrage must be soothed in order to keep the money flowing.     Unfortunately...
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    #DFG: Canceling the Noise

    Right, but at other times they find something not significant and dismiss it and/or reevaluate it later in some new context. See p12 of the Exponent section.
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    #DFG: Canceling the Noise

    Yeah, I know. But the Wells report seems to interpret statistical insignificance as a trend, and if taken together with the whole of the report, they call it evidence. Also, they cherry pick data points when it favors the seemingly favored outcome. I guess I'm just trying to combat that also...
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    #DFG: Canceling the Noise

    It makes a huge difference. If the Pats balls were at 12.3 +/- 0.2 psi and the Colts were at 13.2 +/- 0.2 psi, then the relative differences at halftime would be 0.65 and 0.8 for Colts and Pats balls, resp. If the SD of the Pats balls before the game was 0.35, then the variance issue would be...
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    #DFG: Canceling the Noise

    I'm sure that lessening the ball pressure by 0.2 psi would have helped Shula do better than one SB appearance in the 17 years he had one of the top 5 QBs of all time. 
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    #DFG: Canceling the Noise

    Did anyone read the section entitled "Using the Logo Gauge Pre-Game", in the Exponent part of the report, p. 52?   It starts with this "In recognition of the remaining uncertainty as to which gauge was used to measure the footballs pre-game and in the interest of completeness, similar tests were...
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    #DFG: Canceling the Noise

    This is exactly right. One of the Colts balls measured 12.95 psi. That's not much of a drop from 13.0. Was this ball even taken outside? According to the Wells report simulation, the Colts balls should have been between 12.30 and 12.38. I don't see any concern whatsoever for the Colts...
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    #DFG: Canceling the Noise

    Because there is no margin for error. It is impossible for the readings of 12 different balls to be measured at 12.5 +/- 0.0 psi. It is literally impossible to obtain data like that. The gauges are not that precise, and they were operated by a ref who couldn't give two shits. The Pats balls...
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    #DFG: Canceling the Noise

    It's a fan perception issue. The integrity of the fan experience of the game is compromised if they believe one team is cheating. It only gets worse if said team is dominating the league, and it gets much worse if the league doesn't put an end to such rampant cheating. In the end, the NFL...
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    #DFG: Canceling the Noise

    This report is unbelievable. No matter where you look you find some crap reasoning, inappropriate assumption, flawed methodology, or bias. Attempting to figure out how the report addressed a particular issue is like a trip down the rabbit hole.
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    #DFG: Canceling the Noise

    Thanks. I think you are right. It seems they assumed reading 3 for the Colts balls was written in the wrong column, so they switched it to the other column, and calculated SD in some way taking that into consideration. I know sometimes outliers can be eliminated from an analysis, or they...
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    #DFG: Canceling the Noise

    I think sample SD would be larger because you divide by N-1 as opposed to N. The language in this report is so convoluted, and the locations of methodological descriptions are so vague it's hard to figure out what they did. It doesn't help that there is wide variability in where things are...
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    #DFG: Canceling the Noise

    I think the Wells report is incorrect regarding standard deviation, as discussed on p. 115. They say that the Patriots balls exhibited more variability because the SD was 0.41 and 0.40 based on the measurements at halftime, while the Colts balls had SDs of 0.16 and 0.14.   I think these numbers...
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    #DFG: Canceling the Noise

    Yes, the investigation tried to cover all the bases, but this simulation is flawed (and not well described), and still relies on the 12.5 and 13.0 as the exact pressure of every Patriots and Colts ball, respectively.  And apparently I'm not smart enough to figure out what this "master gauge"...
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