Recent content by NobodyInteresting

  1. NobodyInteresting

    The Game Ball Thread: Wk. 2 @ Pittsburgh

    In addition to the 4th and 9 - I agree that's a punt situation - the Pats punted at (these were the two I was referring to) 10:58 4Q 4th and 5 from the PIT 40 (I think across the league teams go for this more than they don't these days) 8:11 4Q 4th and 2 from the PIT 42 (I think most teams go...
  2. NobodyInteresting

    The Game Ball Thread: Wk. 2 @ Pittsburgh

    It was the later punts I was referring to, and using the result of a one-off play is a terrible way to judge a decision-process when you have mounds of data that can inform you. Particularly when that result is obviously an outlier. If those later punts had been an atypical Bill move in...
  3. NobodyInteresting

    The Game Ball Thread: Wk. 2 @ Pittsburgh

    Sadly given that Bill is still punting from the opponent's 40 yard liine it's probably not going to be the risk-averse Pats leading the charge in NFL punters throwing the ball even if they did. I'm guessing Bill's response to all this would be that the situations don't arise often enough, and...
  4. NobodyInteresting

    The Game Ball Thread: Wk. 2 @ Pittsburgh

    Is it that hard? Feels like any NFL punter ought to be able to lob up a 30 yard pass accurately enough for a guy standing on his own on the sideline to be able to catch it. Sure as hell if I were playing that position I'd have spent a lot of time practicing it over the years (if only so I could...
  5. NobodyInteresting

    The Michael McCorkle "Mac" Jones Thread

    I think the worrying thing is that he hasn't looked good despite a really unsustainably low pressure rate. Last year Mac (per Football Reference) was pressured 18.4% of the time (3rd lowest rate in the league). If you regress ANY/A against pressure rates you'd expect him to have had an ANY/A...
  6. NobodyInteresting

    Week 1 Game Thread

    I mean, Josh Allen did have 6 games with a passer rating below 80 last year, so he kinda did do that every third game... At his best he's clearly very good. But he was not at his best quite often last year. (Just to compare, Brady had 2 such games last season. And yes, I'm completely aware...
  7. NobodyInteresting

    NFL: News and transactions

    I mean, he's taken them deep two out of the last three years. It kinda blows my mind that nobody wants him more than this already, and it's a little hard for me to understand why he'd be worth a big contract this time next year and not even worth a punt at this point. I do not understand teams...
  8. NobodyInteresting

    NFL: News and transactions

    Wow. It's £150 here in the UK. $80 seems like a steal.
  9. NobodyInteresting

    Watson to Cleveland

    A full year suspension might be preferable for the Browns, assuming that the report that his contract would just roll over is accurate. An 8 or 10 or 12 or whatever game ban means you effectively have him under control for 4.25-4.5 years for your $230m. A year ban means you have him for 5...
  10. NobodyInteresting

    Watson to Cleveland

    I'm kinda surprised by the tone of the last few comments here. Why would this make any difference to Browns management? (Not why should it, but why would it?) They already knew there were 23 complaints when they signed him. Even if it hadn't crossed their mind that there might be more (and how...
  11. NobodyInteresting

    Pats 2022 draft class

    This has to be the way to think about it IMO. I don't agree with those people arguing there's no such thing as a reach, but I do agree that once you're past the first few rounds it's pretty meaningless because those picks just aren't worth all that much anyway. The Pats "reach" in the 4th round...
  12. NobodyInteresting

    Pats 2022 draft class

    This is true - the "consensus big board" isn't the NFL GM consensus (which obviously can't be known). But it's also not an entirely unrelated, uninformed or random set of views. It's highly correlated with draft order. It may be better correlated with draft order than the Pats board is, for...
  13. NobodyInteresting

    Pats 2022 draft class

    No question. But the people I was referring to were not panicking or trying to survive. They were just shockingly unaware of what they didn't know/understand and how important some of those things might be. But those are stories for another board.
  14. NobodyInteresting

    Pats 2022 draft class

    I think these are good questions. I think one of the advantages the Pats have is that Bill isn't coaching/GMing for his job each year. Obviously some guys are. If a GM NEEDS to win now to keep his job, its completely rational for him to overpay for something that will pay off this year but...
  15. NobodyInteresting

    Pats 2022 draft class

    You might be right! Clearly your points on information and vulnerability to herding are both valid. But you might not. There seems to be an assumption here that the consensus big board is not a good estimator of where other teams rate players. That could be true. But it seems to me that all the...