2019 Pats Defense: What Are We Witnessing?

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
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Jul 15, 2005
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Hingham, MA
That's crazy to think about. Defense has given up less than 100 points through 11 games when they're on the field if you take out those 28 points(fumble return by Humphries in the Baltimore game too).
89/11 = 8.09. It’s mind blowing.

And aside from the Baltimore game it is 59/10 = 5.9. Which is... hard to process.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Oct 1, 2015
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And without a lot of help from the offense. Baltimore's D is helped greatly this year by an offense that absolutely owns the clock and is always playing with the lead. This Pats' offense has struggled to put together long drives and the D has had to shoulder the vast majority of the load.
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
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Jul 15, 2005
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Hingham, MA
And without a lot of help from the offense. Baltimore's D is helped greatly this year by an offense that absolutely owns the clock and is always playing with the lead. This Pats' offense has struggled to put together long drives and the D has had to shoulder the vast majority of the load.
Correct. Past Pats defenses have always given up fewer points than would be expected due to the offense and special teams. This D is the opposite.
 

azsoxpatsfan

Does not enjoy the go
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May 23, 2014
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Gilmore has been closest defender on 84 passes, 0 of which have gone for touchdowns. Most targets without a td in the league
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Oct 1, 2015
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The defense has definitely taken a big step back from its earlier performance, but is still playing well on the whole. Now some of the points allowed below were actually allowed by the offense or special teams, but I'm just lumping it all in together because it's easier.

First 8 games:
- 7.6 points
- 234.0 yards
- 12.9 first downs

Last 6 games:
- 20.0 points (league avg: 22.8)
- 314.2 yards (league avg: 348.1)
- 15.3 first downs (league avg: 20.3)

Just their last 6 games' defense, and what their ranking would be if it was this over the course of the whole season:
- 20.0 points: #9
- 314.2 yards: #6
- 15.3 first downs: #1

So it's not like the defense is playing poorly. It would be, on the whole, a top-10 or top-5 defense depending on how you looked at it. And that's during this "bad" stretch.
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
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Jul 15, 2005
37,059
Hingham, MA
The defense has definitely taken a big step back from its earlier performance, but is still playing well on the whole. Now some of the points allowed below were actually allowed by the offense or special teams, but I'm just lumping it all in together because it's easier.

First 8 games:
- 7.6 points
- 234.0 yards
- 12.9 first downs

Last 6 games:
- 20.0 points (league avg: 22.8)
- 314.2 yards (league avg: 348.1)
- 15.3 first downs (league avg: 20.3)

Just their last 6 games' defense, and what their ranking would be if it was this over the course of the whole season:
- 20.0 points: #9
- 314.2 yards: #6
- 15.3 first downs: #1

So it's not like the defense is playing poorly. It would be, on the whole, a top-10 or top-5 defense depending on how you looked at it. And that's during this "bad" stretch.
They've also faced 3 top offenses during the past 6 games
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Oct 1, 2015
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They've also faced 3 top offenses during the past 6 games
Yep, and held one of them to just 23 points, 346 yards, and 20 first downs. KC averages 28.1 points, 384.4 yards, and 22.1 first downs a game (28.5, 387.3, and 22.2 vs non-NE opponents). So the Pats' defense did a solid job against them. And against Houston they allowed 28 points but only 276 yards, and one Hou touchdown came on a really short field after a NE turnover. The only game where I thought the defense got shredded was against, of course, Baltimore, and nobody has had the answer for them.
 

DeadlySplitter

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Oct 20, 2015
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I mean, Brown made a great move.

I thought the defense bent but not broke a lot today. need Chung/Jones back at 100% if possible.
 

( . ) ( . ) and (_!_)

T&A
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Feb 9, 2010
5,302
Providence, RI
After today anyone that uses the Boogeyman nickname in a non-mocking fashion should be publicly shamed.

it was a terrible nickname to begin with and clearly they don’t deserve to be in any sort of discussion involving historically great defenses. They put up some gaudy stats against some terrible teams, looked mortal against good offenses and wilted down the stretch.
 

InstaFace

The Ultimate One
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Sep 27, 2016
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I mean, they still finished with the fewest points allowed in the league, by 34 fewer points than the #2 team (Buffalo), and will finish #1 in yards allowed unless SF has an epic defensive game tonight. While playing a 1st-place schedule, something other top defensive teams (SF, BUF, PIT) did not have to do. That's an achievement they had to earn across 16 games.

3rd time they've finished 1st in points-against under Belichick (2003 and 2016). Only the 2nd time they've finished in just the top-5 in yards-against in that span, though (2007, 4th).
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Oct 1, 2015
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Pats' final rankings on defense for 2019:

Points: 14.1 (#1) - Buffalo was #2 at 16.2
Yards: 275.9 (#1) - San Fran was #2 at 281.8
Pass Yds: 180.4 (#2) - San Fran was #1 at 169.2
Rush Yds: 95.5 (#6) - TB was #1 at 73.8
Pass Rating: 62.8 (#1) - Bal was #2 at 77.5
Sacks: 47 (#7) - Pit was #1 at 54
INT: 25 (#1) - Pit was #2 at 20
Pass TD: 13 (#1) - Buf was #2 at 15
Pass Yds/Att: 6.0 (#2) - SF was #1 at 5.9
Rush Yds/Att: 4.2 (#14) - TB was #1 at 3.3
3rd Down conversion: 24.1% (#1) - Dal was #2 at 33.3%

Long story short, the Patriots' defense, when the entire season is taken into account, was by a sizable margin the #1 defense in the NFL. That's the good news. The bad news is that things were so weighted by their insane quality early on, that it kind of hid some poor performances in the second half of the year.

Points Allowed
Games 1-8: 7.6
Games 9-16: 20.5

Yards Allowed
Games 1-8: 234.0
Games 9-16: 317.8

First Downs Allowed
Games 1-8: 12.9
Games 9-16: 19.8

Pass Yds Allowed
Games 1-8: 148.8
Games 9-16: 212.0

Rush Yds Allowed
Games 1-8: 85.3
Games 9-16: 105.8

Turnovers Caused
Games 1-8: 3.1
Games 9-16: 1.4

So wow what a drop-off. I know they played better teams in the second half of the year, but frankly, those are the kinds of teams they'll be playing in the playoffs (or team, singular, if they don't get their act together).

Against playoff teams (Buf x2, Bal, Hou, KC, Phi), here were their numbers:

20.8 pts
20.0 1st downs
315.3 yds
207.8 pass yds
107.5 rush yds
1.5 turnovers

Now, are those kinds of numbers good enough to carry the team? Probably not with the way the offense has performed this year. Against those same six playoff opponents, the Pats' offense has averaged:

19.2 pts
20.2 1st downs
334.0 yds
233.3 pass yds
100.7 rush yds
1.0 turnovers

So it's pretty close. Some good news is that (even though this is a defense thread) the last 5 games - 3 of which were against playoff opponents, and 1 of which was against a Miami team that won 3 of their last 5 (2 against playoff opponents) and 5 of their last 9 - their offense performed much better.

Last 5 games, offense:

24.0 pts
21.2 1st downs
356.6 yds
218.2 pass yds
138.4 rush yds
0.8 turnovers

So who the heck knows. But on the whole, the D was spectacular this year. Lately....not so much. And that has me worried. Because they need the defense to play really, really well.
 

( . ) ( . ) and (_!_)

T&A
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Feb 9, 2010
5,302
Providence, RI
They are a very good defense. I'm not going to argue against that.
What I'd argue against is that they are not a historically great defense.

They destroyed a bunch of really poor offensive teams for which they deserve full credit. They were unworldly good and the number reflected their level of play. But against competent offenses they were merely a good, but not great defense. I don't think anyone should be upset or disappointed by that. It's a great thing to have a good defense and the Patriots have one.

But it's pretty clear that any discussion that compares this defense to the greatest defenses of all time is incorrect no matter what the counting stats say.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Oct 1, 2015
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The four losses this season...

- Got bludgeoned by a juggernaut in Baltimore. And yet even with that loss, they were a Julian Edelman fumble in the third quarter away from probably taking the lead in that game.

- Lost to Houston in a game where the Pats dominated the stat sheet but really were handled pretty well by Houston. Respectable loss to a quality opponent on the road. It happens.

- Lost at home to KC in a game where they got royally screwed by the refs, plain and simple. Should have won that game.

- Lost an inexplicable game at home to Miami. The annual "WTF was that" game. Every year it seems they have one of those. Yesterday was that one. No shame in losing to Baltimore, Houston, and KC. The Miami game was the WTF game.

So at the end of the year we are left with a 12-4 team, featuring the season-long #1 defense in the NFL, that's not remotely playing like it the last half of the year, and a tepid offense that actually has played better recently than it was the previous few weeks. They still have Belichick and even though Brady isn't BRADY anymore, there's no way anyone should bury him yet. He still has the ability to come up with a spectacular performance.

For most teams, this would represent a wildly successful season already. For the Pats, it's a crummy year filled with disappointment and uncertainty.
 

DeadlySplitter

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Oct 20, 2015
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Houston has a -7 point differential. giving up 28 to them sucked... seemed to run into Watson on a good day.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Oct 1, 2015
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Houston has a -7 point differential. giving up 28 to them sucked... seemed to run into Watson on a good day.
Houston had 7 games this year where they scored 26+ points, and another 4 where they scored 23+ points. They're more than capable of scoring. The Pats only allowed 276 yards and 16 first downs against Houston that day.

The real problem that day was the Pats' offense not mustering up much of anything against a pretty mediocre defense. They've had 6 games where they've allowed 30 or more points. And all NE could muster was 22, most of those coming late. And a key play in the game was a bad Brady interception that gave Houston incredible field position, which they promptly converted into a touchdown.
 

DeadlySplitter

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the defense has to be [historically] elite to carry this broken offense, and bottom line they've shown they can't quite be that against the playoff teams. and that will probably end them before January 19. what a run though

it was fun to imagine for awhile they could pull a Denver 2015, but the backbreaker I guess is not enough pass rush, a common issue with Bill teams
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Oct 1, 2015
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the defense has to be [historically] elite to carry this broken offense, and bottom line they've shown they can't quite be that against the playoff teams. and that will probably end them before January 19. what a run though

it was fun to imagine for awhile they could pull a Denver 2015, but the backbreaker I guess is not enough pass rush, a common issue with Bill teams
This is where they miss Bennett (who I really really wish they hadn't traded away). They generate pass rush with stunts and blitzes and games up front. If that gets picked up, they don't really have the individual skill level to just beat guys one-on-one. Bennett could do that. Not at an elite level, but at a pretty good level.
 

JMDurron

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I have no idea who Brett Kollmann is, but I watched an interesting video on his channel that puts forward one potential answer to the question in the thread title: we are witnessing teams figure out exactly how the Patriots are covering certain routes in certain formations, and teams are adjusting to that in ways that exploit the tendencies of Gilmore, where the safety help is likely to roll, and vulnerabilities in at least one other corner (Jones).

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hmkJYpa9G_g


If this is the case, this would be both good news (could be fixed by playing against tendencies in the playoffs) and bad (it's not just a banged-up secondary and better competition making the defense look worse lately) heading into January.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Oct 1, 2015
24,376
They are a very good defense. I'm not going to argue against that.
What I'd argue against is that they are not a historically great defense.

They destroyed a bunch of really poor offensive teams for which they deserve full credit. They were unworldly good and the number reflected their level of play. But against competent offenses they were merely a good, but not great defense. I don't think anyone should be upset or disappointed by that. It's a great thing to have a good defense and the Patriots have one.

But it's pretty clear that any discussion that compares this defense to the greatest defenses of all time is incorrect no matter what the counting stats say.
Let's see how they do in the playoffs. If they lose early, then you're right. If they somehow go on to win it all, and the defense is pretty dominant, then they may ultimately receive this kind of recognition.
 

Saints Rest

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Has anyone looked at when the wearing of the defensive headset changed from Mayo to Steve Belichick? Does it coincide with a change in results on the field? It certainly seemed that we saw Mayo with the headset on a lot early, but I cannot remember seeing him wearing it at all over the last few games while seeing it always on SB's head.
 

8slim

has trust issues
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Has anyone looked at when the wearing of the defensive headset changed from Mayo to Steve Belichick? Does it coincide with a change in results on the field? It certainly seemed that we saw Mayo with the headset on a lot early, but I cannot remember seeing him wearing it at all over the last few games while seeing it always on SB's head.
There was a guy in my section last Sunday who spent much of the 2nd half screaming at Belichick about letting his son call the defense. It was kind of amusing, honestly.