Betts/Price to LA for Verdugo/Jeter Downs/TBA

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Rich Garces Belly

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Don't want to speak for the OP, but non-tendering JBJ and trading a subsidized Price for a C+ prospect would have gone a long way toward fixing the immediate payroll problem and would have helped the team's bargaining position in trading Betts.
Not to hijack the thread but I still do not understand why JBJ wasn’t non-tendered.
 

Jimbodandy

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It follows perfectly.

Graterol was viewed by the Sox as a potential #3 starter pre-trade med-swaps. After the meds review he was now seen as a sore-armed reliever. His value was severely diminished. Adding a low Twins prospect (outside their top-10) will not make Graterol any healthier or really help the Sox.

And I agree accepting additional compensation (from LAD or the Twins) to make the Sox feel they received adequate trade value is probably required. However adding a low Twins prospect to a diminished in value Graterol in this trade does not make sense to me. This is unlikley to happen but Graterol as a 3rd piece (Verdugu, PTBNL, Grat) given his medical records, lower perceived value, and the Sox stance, would be rational.
I agree with most of what you wrote here, but you're still conflating health and profile. Yes, they're related. But the Sox reported projection of Graterol as "definitely not a starter" doesn't mean that they aren't projecting him as a future major leaguer with value. It just doesn't.
 

E5 Yaz

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Not to hijack the thread but I still do not understand why JBJ wasn’t non-tendered.
It could be that they knew they were going to trade Mookie and a year of JBJ, even at that price, gives them a little more stability in the outfield
 

nattysez

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I'm curious who is leaking like a sieve on this deal. At this point the Dodgers want to get this done so they can make all their ancillary moves, so they seem like the likeliest candidate.
 

E5 Yaz

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I'm curious who is leaking like a sieve on this deal. At this point the Dodgers want to get this done so they can make all their ancillary moves, so they seem like the likeliest candidate.
Well, Heyman-Boras says the Dodgers doctors cleared Graterol's medicals, so the Dodgers are a good guess
 

bankshot1

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I agree with most of what you wrote here, but you're still conflating health and profile. Yes, they're related. But the Sox reported projection of Graterol as "definitely not a starter" doesn't mean that they aren't projecting him as a future major leaguer with value. It just doesn't.
I'm not the one splitting hairs here.

The Sox thought they were getting a #3 starter as part of the package, but upon their review of Grat's medical records reassessed his future value.

For example lets say that as a #3 starter, pitching 160-175 innings, he may have a projected WAR of 3, and as a releiver pitching 80 innings, he has a projected WAR of 1.

Yes we are in agreement in both instances he has future value as a major league pitcher.

However, your argument suggests there is no difference in value or price between the two projections.
 

Jimbodandy

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I'm not the one splitting hairs here.

The Sox thought they were getting a #3 starter as part of the package, but upon their review of Grat's medical records reassessed his future value.

For example lets say that as a #3 starter, pitching 160-175 innings, he may have a projected WAR of 3, and as a releiver pitching 80 innings, he has a projected WAR of 1.

Yes we are in agreement in both instances he has future value as a major league pitcher.

However, your argument suggests there is no difference in value or price between the two projections.
Looks like we agree. Of course a reliever profile--even a high level one--is less valuable than a good #3 starter. That's why another piece, whomever it's from, makes sense.
 

Hee Sox Choi

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Mystery Teams!!!

From MLB.com via Rotoworld:

With the blockbuster Mookie Betts trade in danger of falling apart, multiple teams have contacted the Red Sox to express their interest in the superstar outfielder.

The Red Sox may want to hit the pause button in order to listen to new trade offers to see if anyone will give them a better deal. The Red Sox and Dodgers are believed to be discussing the possibility of restructuring the deal to replace Brusdar Graterol with another prospect and potentially leave the Twins out of the swap. The Twins and Dodgers could then make a separate trade sending Kenta Maeda to Minnesota. The Padres pushed hard to acquire Betts and could be back in the running now with some other mystery teams involved as well.
 

RI 2 VA Sox Fan

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Part of the reason Bloom is having so much trouble getting value in trades is the the ownership decided to publicly announce their desire to get under the $208 threshold. That was a critical error in judgement by Kennedy on the radio, that Henry subsequently tried to walk back but has been unsuccessful. Now that Bloom has accepted two question marks for Betts and kicked in half Price’s salary their pants are around their ankles going forward regardless of what they say.
I understand your point about the public announcement error but wouldn't that have just set the table? At this point the table has been reset by the rumored trade. If teams assess the current offer as less than market value they would jump in with either more or less value assuming they'd be interested in the second best player in baseball. We are not hearing that is happening so I am assuming the market isn't interested in Mookie/Price in that price range.

The best leverage they have is being patient and waiting out the Dodgers to blink with the right prospects or perhaps someone else getting involved. If that doesn't happen then you take either their best offer that is currently on the table. I doubt the Dodgers will take their current best offer off the table and the fear of losing Mookie will only get worse the closer we get to players reporting.

CORRECTION: Here come the Mystery Teams !
 

E5 Yaz

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Mystery Teams!!!

From MLB.com via Rotoworld:

With the blockbuster Mookie Betts trade in danger of falling apart, multiple teams have contacted the Red Sox to express their interest in the superstar outfielder.

The Red Sox may want to hit the pause button in order to listen to new trade offers to see if anyone will give them a better deal. The Red Sox and Dodgers are believed to be discussing the possibility of restructuring the deal to replace Brusdar Graterol with another prospect and potentially leave the Twins out of the swap. The Twins and Dodgers could then make a separate trade sending Kenta Maeda to Minnesota. The Padres pushed hard to acquire Betts and could be back in the running now with some other mystery teams involved as well.
Covered yesterday. Subsequent reporting by actual reporters points to the Dodgers and Red Sox continuing to find common ground
 

InsideTheParker

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'Non-Boston docs'. The one who seems to be burning bridges in this saga is Heyman with the Boston front office.
As he is Boras' mouthpiece, take everything he says with a sack of salt.
Edit: I am very late, as a number of posters said as much between the quoted posts and mine.
 

PedroKsBambino

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I think a good summary of the last 24 hours would be "teams continue to talk, outcome of those talks remains uncertain"

All of the speculation and reported leakings without clear sourcing really do nothing to add to the above.
 

The_Powa_of_Seiji_Ozawa

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Mystery Teams!!!

From MLB.com via Rotoworld:

With the blockbuster Mookie Betts trade in danger of falling apart, multiple teams have contacted the Red Sox to express their interest in the superstar outfielder.

The Red Sox may want to hit the pause button in order to listen to new trade offers to see if anyone will give them a better deal. The Red Sox and Dodgers are believed to be discussing the possibility of restructuring the deal to replace Brusdar Graterol with another prospect and potentially leave the Twins out of the swap. The Twins and Dodgers could then make a separate trade sending Kenta Maeda to Minnesota. The Padres pushed hard to acquire Betts and could be back in the running now with some other mystery teams involved as well.
It's the Boras camp Mystery Team ®, which will offer a package of considerably less value than the Graterol offer, thus convincing Boston to accept the original offer as the best they're likely to get.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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It could be that they knew they were going to trade Mookie and a year of JBJ, even at that price, gives them a little more stability in the outfield
Or, you know, they like the guy and he's their #1 choice to play center field for them in 2020, even if fans and some advanced statistics think he's overpaid.
 

Hee Sox Choi

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The Dodgers bullpen has been their Achilles heel for a while now and they need a good relief pitcher more than anything. Trading Maeda for Graterol straight up makes sense for LA, UNLESS... Graterol's medicals are shitty. I think the rumor that the Dodgers might trade for Graterol is just to get the Sox to bite, otherwise, that Dodgers-Twins deal might already be done.

I'll be fine with Verdugo + Jeter Downs + lotto ticket. Anything less will be a letdown.
 

djbayko

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It's the Boras camp Mystery Team ®, which will offer a package of considerably less value than the Graterol offer, thus convincing Boston to accept the original offer as the best they're likely to get.
That doesn’t make much sense. The Sox know what offers are being made to them. As much as Boras loves his mystery teams, this would have to be a Sox leak, to put pressure on LA. Perhaps you were only joking.
 

Hee Sox Choi

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That doesn’t make much sense. The Sox know what offers are being made to them. As much as Boras loves his mystery teams, this would have to be a Sox leak, to put pressure on LA. Perhaps you were only joking.
I think what he's saying is Scott Boras will disguise his voice as AJ Preller and offer a package of Ty France and Trey Wingenter to get Bloom to pull the trigger in a panic with the Dodgers. Or something.
 

jon abbey

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Olney’s perspective:

“ There's so much at stake for the Dodgers and Boston Red Sox in the potential Mookie Betts swap that you would assume that some way, somehow, the two sides will find a way to push the negotiations across the finish line. The Red Sox probably have too few avenues to offload tens of millions of dollars of salary in the way they can by attaching David Price's contract to Betts, and the Dodgers could really use the emotional jolt after a devastating playoff loss in 2019.

But the longer this takes to finish, anxiety within the Boston leadership seems to be building. At the time that elements of the deal were first reported, a rival executive noted that Derek Falvey, who leads the Twins' baseball operations, has a deep understanding of pitching, and in this exec's eyes, if Falvey is willing to give up Brusdar Graterol, the hardest thrower in the minors, then there must be some doubt about him. The Red Sox might have some concern about that, or Graterol's medical history. Or perhaps it's the natural revulsion some of their fans feel about trading Betts, one of the best players in the game. Or the word going around that Alex Verdugo, the big piece that the Red Sox would get, hasn't been a perfect teammate.

But multiple evaluators with other clubs believe that Boston's end of the proposed deal is pretty good -- adding in the savings on Price's contract, close to $50 million of the $96 million remaining. Price is 34 and pitching with some kind of mitigating condition in his elbow.

"What you have to ask yourself is, what would Price get if he was a free agent today?" said one official. Some estimates on that ranged from one year at $12 million, to $18 million over two years.

If the Betts deal with the Dodgers falls apart, then the Red Sox will be faced with exactly the same quandaries they've had all winter. If you start the season with Betts on the roster and the team is on the fringe of the wild-card contention in July, do you run the risk of angering the fan base even more by dealing him in the middle of a playoff race? Do you run the risk of retaining him and then seeing him walk away for almost nothing when he becomes a free agent next fall? And what do you do with the expensive group of starting pitchers -- Price, Nathan Eovaldi, Chris Sale -- if they struggle in the first half or break down? There are just not going to be a lot of opportunities for the Red Sox to trim their payroll in a meaningful way.”
 

Jeff Van GULLY

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Went to school with Falvey. Bright guy. He’s local, too. Sox GM is his dream job.

He’s not going to bail out Bloom.
 

Coachster

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Don't want to speak for the OP, but non-tendering JBJ and trading a subsidized Price for a C+ prospect would have gone a long way toward fixing the immediate payroll problem and would have helped the team's bargaining position in trading Betts.
But if reports are to be believed Bloom has been trying to trade subsidized Price all offseason and hasn't had any luck. I agree non-tendering Bradley should have been done and I'm still stunned he's still here
Not to hijack the thread but I still do not understand why JBJ wasn’t non-tendered.
Not to hijack the thread, but not tendering JBJ means our center fielder for 2020 is Jared Dyson or Cameron Maybin. You think the fans are disgruntled now?
 

JimD

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Went to school with Falvey. Bright guy. He’s local, too. Sox GM is his dream job.

He’s not going to bail out Bloom.
Not sure why Bloom is one who needs to be 'bailed out'. Falvey is the one stuck with an asset that is possibly (probably?) worth less than it was a week ago.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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Olney’s perspective:

“ There's so much at stake for the Dodgers and Boston Red Sox in the potential Mookie Betts swap that you would assume that some way, somehow, the two sides will find a way to push the negotiations across the finish line. ...

But the longer this takes to finish, anxiety within the Boston leadership seems to be building. At the time that elements of the deal were first reported, a rival executive noted that Derek Falvey, who leads the Twins' baseball operations, has a deep understanding of pitching, and in this exec's eyes, if Falvey is willing to give up Brusdar Graterol, the hardest thrower in the minors, then there must be some doubt about him. The Red Sox might have some concern about that, or Graterol's medical history. Or perhaps it's the natural revulsion some of their fans feel about trading Betts, one of the best players in the game. Or the word going around that Alex Verdugo, the big piece that the Red Sox would get, hasn't been a perfect teammate.

But multiple evaluators with other clubs believe that Boston's end of the proposed deal is pretty good -- adding in the savings on Price's contract, close to $50 million of the $96 million remaining. Price is 34 and pitching with some kind of mitigating condition in his elbow.

"What you have to ask yourself is, what would Price get if he was a free agent today?" said one official. Some estimates on that ranged from one year at $12 million, to $18 million over two years.

If the Betts deal with the Dodgers falls apart, then the Red Sox will be faced with exactly the same quandaries they've had all winter. If you start the season with Betts on the roster and the team is on the fringe of the wild-card contention in July, do you run the risk of angering the fan base even more by dealing him in the middle of a playoff race? Do you run the risk of retaining him and then seeing him walk away for almost nothing when he becomes a free agent next fall? And what do you do with the expensive group of starting pitchers -- Price, Nathan Eovaldi, Chris Sale -- if they struggle in the first half or break down? There are just not going to be a lot of opportunities for the Red Sox to trim their payroll in a meaningful way.”
There is a myriad of sh!t that annoys me about this. Maybe Price has lingering elbow problems, but his issue at the end of 2019 was his wrist. So.... What is it? Heck, if he has wrist AND elbow issues, well maybe Graterol also has elbow AND shoulder problems. Oh, but that would make the Sox’s concerns legit, so that can‘t be right...

As to what Price would get.. Ryu got 4/$80. But I guess he’s so much younger, more durable and proven than Price. Of course, Kyle f’n Gibson got 3/$30, so yeah, no way anyone would offer Price even 2/$20.

Just stoopid....
 

Teachdad46

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This may or may not be relevant as we all sit around eating junk food while trolling the netscape:
from Fangraphs:
Mookie Betts’s last three seasons before being dealt from the Red Sox to the Dodgers: .299/.389/.535, 85 home runs, 140 wRC+, three Gold Gloves.

Fred Lynn’s last three seasons before being dealt from the Red Sox to the Angels in January 1981: .311/.396/.540, 73 home runs, 148 wRC+, three Gold Gloves.

Lynn was 28 years old at the time. The three players Boston acquired in the deal — Jim Dorsey, Joe Rudi, and Frank Tanana — went on to combine for 0.1 WAR while wearing Red Sox uniforms. Betts, arguably the best player in baseball not named Mike Trout, is 27 years old.
 

nvalvo

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Not to hijack the thread, but not tendering JBJ means our center fielder for 2020 is Jared Dyson or Cameron Maybin. You think the fans are disgruntled now?
Well, unless it's Mookie Betts.

There is a myriad of sh!t that annoys me about this. Maybe Price has lingering elbow problems, but his issue at the end of 2019 was his wrist. So.... What is it? Heck, if he has wrist AND elbow issues, well maybe Graterol also has elbow AND shoulder problems. Oh, but that would make the Sox’s concerns legit, so that can‘t be right...

As to what Price would get.. Ryu got 4/$80. But I guess he’s so much younger, more durable and proven than Price. Of course, Kyle f’n Gibson got 3/$30, so yeah, no way anyone would offer Price even 2/$20.
I mean, didn't we learn that the Dodgers valued him at 3/$48? That's a bit more than 1/$18. And I bet somebody would value him higher. As you say, Ryu got 4/$80, and Price feels to me like a comparable property going forward: pretty good, if he's healthy.
 

bankshot1

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I'm not sure what the rush is to complete a deeply discounted crappy deal. In the absence of a reasonable sweetner, I'd be inclined to wait until ST and see if any other teams have reassessed their players or needs (or injuries) and have a heightened interest in either Betts or Price. And it will give the Sox brain trust some time to decide on a fucking manager.

And worst case, I'm guessing a shitty deal is always out there.
 

Mystic Merlin

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I'm not sure what the rush is to complete a deeply discounted crappy deal. In the absence of a reasonable sweetner, I'd be inclined to wait until ST and see if any other teams have reassessed their players or needs (or injuries) and have a heightened interest in either Betts or Price. And it will give the Sox brain trust some time to decide on a fucking manager.

And worst case, I'm guessing a shitty deal is always out there.
What are the odds a team suddenly becomes willing to offer value in March? I’d say really low. The teams that can take this kind of salary and are willing to part with value while taking the risk of Mookie walking cant be long to begin with and seem to have already identified themselves as the Dodgers and....?
 

bankshot1

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What are the odds a team suddenly becomes willing to offer value in March? I’d say really low. The teams that can take this kind of salary and are willing to part with value while taking the risk of Mookie walking cant be long to begin with and seem to have already identified themselves as the Dodgers and....?
Like I said a crappy discounted deal will always be available-no need to jump on the first one in February. I might take the risk of seeing how things play out. There may be other options that come up.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
I mean, didn't we learn that the Dodgers valued him at 3/$48? That's a bit more than 1/$18. And I bet somebody would value him higher. As you say, Ryu got 4/$80, and Price feels to me like a comparable property going forward: pretty good, if he's healthy.
No, not really. We learned only that the Dodgers thought Price at 3/$48M + Betts was a reasonable price to accept for Verdugo + Maeda. That doesn't tell us what they would have paid for Price on the open market without the enticement of the Betts leg of the deal.
 

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He's his agent. His job is to make sure Graterol's perceived value is as high as possible, no matter the circumstances.
I get the basic premise, but it seems Boras is putting a lot more effort into the defense than we’d see from a typical agent. I guess it’s a slow news week and this gets him in front of the cameras, but I don’t know what else he sees in the situation.
 

Average Game James

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I get the basic premise, but it seems Boras is putting a lot more effort into the defense than we’d see from a typical agent. I guess it’s a slow news week and this gets him in front of the cameras, but I don’t know what else he sees in the situation.
It’s not just what it means for Graterol specifically. It’s also about appearances to current and future clients.
 

Green Monster

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I get the basic premise, but it seems Boras is putting a lot more effort into the defense than we’d see from a typical agent. I guess it’s a slow news week and this gets him in front of the cameras, but I don’t know what else he sees in the situation.
Agreed...especially for a client who won't be arbitration eligible for 3yrs or a FA for 6yrs. If he is/isn't injured it will be pretty clear before then. Not sure what the benefit is
 
I get the basic premise, but it seems Boras is putting a lot more effort into the defense than we’d see from a typical agent. I guess it’s a slow news week and this gets him in front of the cameras, but I don’t know what else he sees in the situation.
This kind of representation is good for business, I think. If you're a young amateur player looking to hire an agent, you're probably impressed by it--that the agent who got Gerritt Cole $324 million from the Yankees is now stridently defending a kid who won't be a FA for years.

More specifically, the news about those private medical records was hugely stigmatizing. Young athletes are under enough pressure as it is, etc., etc.

Edit: I do think he has to speak out emphatically about the medical-records stuff. He's right to, I think. It isn't cool.
 
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Yelling At Clouds

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I didn’t love the original trade, but if the front office really is considering changing the deal because of fan/media reaction, then that is concerning to say the least.
 

bosockboy

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This kind of representation is good for business, I think. If you're a young amateur player looking to hire an agent, you're probably impressed by it--that the agent who got Gerritt Cole $324 million from the Yankees is now stridently defending a kid who won't be a FA for years.

More specifically, the news about those private medical records was hugely stigmatizing. Young athletes are under enough pressure as it is, etc., etc.
Yeah a week ago Graterol was a generally unknown prospect and now has been thrust into this mega trade and having his value and future parsed by every baseball writer in the game. Tough week for him.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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We've been seeing reports like this every day for the last week, at least. The media keeps baiting the hook and somehow getting another day of clicks and views out of a story that doesn't really merit the attention. I don't mean that a trade of this type is not significantly newsworthy, but until it's a done deal, what good does it do to speculate and guess and create anxiety in multiple fan bases? Makes me miss the Dombrowski days where the rumors of something happening only preceded official announcements by minutes rather than days/weeks.
 

E5 Yaz

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If this ever does get finalized, I can't wait to read how the p.r. statements from the Red Sox, Twins and Dodgers handle the delay
 
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