That is largely because the Clips/Lakers/Rockets are all on the other side of the ledger. However, they are only really underdogs against the Clippers (according to 538). Plausible but I'm not sure I believe it.
Celtics-Raptors 2nd Round--Dethrone the Champs
- Thread starter RedOctober3829
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The Celtics match up very well against the Lakers simply because AD isn't really a post threat. I would be really scared of the Rockets, however, simply because their switch-everything scheme is rough on what the Celtics like to do.
I wonder how much Miami's equity vs. Milwaukee factors into this. The Heat are a way better matchup for the Celtics.
FVV missed a wide open 3 down the stretch and I thought both he and Kl missed some good looks. But one reason may be that both these guys have to work so hard to create offense for TOR in the half-court plus play pressure defense that it might affect their shooting a bit at the end of games.
Just like PHI, TOR is missing a guy they can give the ball down the stretch and break down a defense. Every other team in the playoffs with championship hopes has at least one guy like that. That's another way of stating how important KL was last year.
Yeah, the bolded is what I meant when I said Toronto might have a couple shooting variance wins in them this series. There will be stretches when those fall and the Raps look great.
I loved what I saw from Tatum in the second half last night. Toronto kept throwing extra help defenders at him, trapping him on every pick and roll, and Tatum just kept making the right play every time. The six assists were nice, but he had several passes out of double teams where he didn't just give the ball up, but got himself in position to make the pass to the open man in a spot to shoot, and his teammates bricked a few of them. Prior to the eruption of Mt. Smart, it felt like no one else could buy a bucket. But Tatum not only gave it up when he had to, he used his handle to find ways to score even when he knew the double team was coming. I thought it was maybe the best decision making/ball handling game I've seen from him.
When defenses key on Tatum like that and the team still finds ways to score...that's going to go a long way toward making them a title contender. Smart won't go off like that very often, but Brown and Kemba won't shoot that poorly very often, either.
When defenses key on Tatum like that and the team still finds ways to score...that's going to go a long way toward making them a title contender. Smart won't go off like that very often, but Brown and Kemba won't shoot that poorly very often, either.
Mucking it up is dead-on (but not in an 80s Pistons or 90s Knicks way). I was watching without sound for much of the 2nd half, and while there were occasional open looks for Toronto, it really stood out how hard they had to work on nearly every aspect of every offensive set. Walker and Smart staying with their guys at the 3 point line despite getting picked screwed up plan A. It had to be a exhausting mentally and physically for Toronto.
Something brought up by Bill Simmons in his latest pod that also passed my eye test on the highlight vids (shoutout to Tomasz Kordylewski on youtube):
The Raptors rarely go for offensive rebounds.
Obviously guys like FvV, Lowry, etc are not really build for those anyway, but Gasol, Ibaka, Siakam etc. barely have hurt the Cs there either (7 O-rebounds in each game so far), when I always considered the rebounding to be a little weakness for Boston this season, without the prototypical 7ft center parked in the zone.
On most bricked shots by the Raptors there is none or at most one player even remotely close to the basket while 4-5 guys are already retreating.
And with their poor shooting percentages so far, there really wasn't a lack of chances to grab a couple more for Toronto, if they'd decided to attack those more.
In comparison, Embiid, Horford, Harris and Co. averaged nearly 13 O-Rebounds in the first round, with a max of 20 in game 3.
The Raptors rarely go for offensive rebounds.
Obviously guys like FvV, Lowry, etc are not really build for those anyway, but Gasol, Ibaka, Siakam etc. barely have hurt the Cs there either (7 O-rebounds in each game so far), when I always considered the rebounding to be a little weakness for Boston this season, without the prototypical 7ft center parked in the zone.
On most bricked shots by the Raptors there is none or at most one player even remotely close to the basket while 4-5 guys are already retreating.
And with their poor shooting percentages so far, there really wasn't a lack of chances to grab a couple more for Toronto, if they'd decided to attack those more.
In comparison, Embiid, Horford, Harris and Co. averaged nearly 13 O-Rebounds in the first round, with a max of 20 in game 3.
That's largely by design though, isn't it? To prevent transition buckets if they contest for an O rebound and lose, guys are taught to start sprinting back on D as soon as the shot is up, rather than collapsing in to fight for the rebound.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nba-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo
Celtics odds of winning the East: 68%
Combined chances Bucks/Heat/Raptors: 32%
Celtics odds of winning the title: 35%
Combined chances Bucks/Heat/Raptors: 9%
I'd be interested to hear from 538 on the rationale for the percentages here. Tatum/Kemba/Smart high RAPTORs along with shortening the bench in the playoffs? plus the current hot streak? do they account for injury chances? (We're one injury away from giving a lot of minutes to very terrible players).
I have to admit it really seems overly "pro Celtics" at first glance, particularly with respect to the other teams in the Eastern conference. I know they are up 2-0 which gives them a big edge in this series, but we're not even to the Eastern Conference finals yet.
Even if you guarantee the Celtics win the current series I probably wouldn't put their odds this high. The Bucks are struggling but they had a +10.1 (!!!) point differential this year and Giannis is healthy.
Perhaps I just don't want to let myself get too excited
Celtics odds of winning the East: 68%
Combined chances Bucks/Heat/Raptors: 32%
Celtics odds of winning the title: 35%
Combined chances Bucks/Heat/Raptors: 9%
I'd be interested to hear from 538 on the rationale for the percentages here. Tatum/Kemba/Smart high RAPTORs along with shortening the bench in the playoffs? plus the current hot streak? do they account for injury chances? (We're one injury away from giving a lot of minutes to very terrible players).
I have to admit it really seems overly "pro Celtics" at first glance, particularly with respect to the other teams in the Eastern conference. I know they are up 2-0 which gives them a big edge in this series, but we're not even to the Eastern Conference finals yet.
Even if you guarantee the Celtics win the current series I probably wouldn't put their odds this high. The Bucks are struggling but they had a +10.1 (!!!) point differential this year and Giannis is healthy.
Perhaps I just don't want to let myself get too excited
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Honestly, this is probably due to the Celtics being physically closest in terms of wins to the finals. They only have to win 10 more games to be crowned champs, while the Heat have to win 11 and are playing the Bucks and everyone else needs to win 12 more games.
So in the model's mind, they are in a much better position because they have two extra wins which are a lot more valuable than even a 70% likelihood of winning your next two games.
That’s part of it, but it is more about talent evaluation. 538 thinks the Celtics and Clippers are neck and neck as the best 2 teams (the Celtics have been rising in its model like Helium as they coast through the playoffs—a week ago 538 thought we had the talent of a 61 win team and it is now up to 65, as an example). The model thinks we are much better than the Heat or Bucks and that we have an over 75% chance of advancing from conference finals (assuming we make it) to the finals. Once at the finals, we are basically in a coin flip with the West per their model.
I don’t have a good sense of whether the sensitivity to recent changes is too much. I think the Celtics are playing at a very different level from the regular season and it makes sense for the model to reflect that. Tatum, primarily, has been improving dramatically in real ways. I think it’s harder to know what to think of the model souring on the Bucks. I personally would not give us a 75% chance of winning a series with them, although that seems reasonable re the Heat if they advance, so I would discount the model based on that, but the idea that we are currently playing like a mid-60 win team instead of the mid-50 win team we were for most of the season I do buy and we are absolutely serious contenders at this point.
I love how Tatum is now hunting out foul calls and trying to get to the line. If he can get anywhere near the amount of FTs that he did last night it will be a lot easier to score for him.
I'm not smart enough to figure out how to parse everything but 538 is giving MIA a 63% chance of progressing but only 15% chance of making it to the Finals, which seems to make the Cs a heavy favorite over MIA. So MIl's !0% chance of going to the Finals derives from being a heavy underdog to beat MIA (likely based on previous matchups) and then a slight underdog to eat BOS.
I agree that 538 is pretty close on the MIL-MIA series given that MIA is up 1-0 but I think 538 is wrong on BOS-MIA as I think it's much closer to a toss-up.
That was my initial reaction when someone posted it as well, but it doesn't really hold up.
Even if you give the Celtics the Toronto series and say they are 100% going to be in the Eastern conference finals, based on these numbers they are still fairly heavy favorites to win the ECF and make the finals. It's not like having more wins now will change their odds of winning the ECF, it starts 0-0 of course.
They also about even money to win it all once they are there (though the eventual matchup matters of course).
Correct. They have the Celts at 88% to win the series, and 68% to win the conference. That implies that their chances of winning the EC assuming they get to the next round is 77%. That seems really, really high for a conference finals.
Good video breakdown of how Boston is defending Toronto:
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l9UG6cQgIoQ
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l9UG6cQgIoQ
Thanks, always enjoy Coach Daniel’s videos. He did a great series on the reads in the Celtics stagger screen set way before anyone was talking about it.
Why would you think it's a toss-up? The Celtics were a much better regular season team than Miami by point differential overall and differential against good teams, and outplayed them head-to-head. I guess if you want to weight the one bubble game heavily, but the Celtics clearly were not in a groove until 4-5 games into the Orlando session.
The Bucks are a bad matchup for the Celtics, so I'd be excited to see the Heat get through. They're a good team, but, similarly to Toronto, the Celtics present a lot of problems for them, particularly when Miami is on offense.
MIA is built like the Cs and Butler will be the best "16 game" player the Cs have faced up to now. MIA plays super hard, is deep, and can really shoot the ball. Spoelstra is an excellent coach and has a lot of buttons he can push, particularly off the bench. Also, this is the series that Cs could use Gordon.
From what I've seen of the way MIA plays, it's going to be less about specific matchups and more about execution. BOS has more talent but MIA will be a difficult out and I expect that they will have a couple of hot shooting games that they will win. Hopefully no more than a couple.
Interestingly, the Celts went down from 68% to win the East to 63%, so their implied % of winning the ECF assuming they get there went from 77% to 71.5%. Wonder if that is due to the Heat being a potential worse matchup for them than the Bucks (doesn't seem likely), or the model starting to catch up to how good the Heat are (much more likely). At best shouldn't the Celts be like 50% to win the East right now? That would make them a 57% favorite next round given the current 88% to advance.
Couldn't they at least have brought some parquet down there for the Celtics games?
This is the Heat improving in the model and increasing their odds of making the conference finals. The model has upgraded the Heat to being a 60 win talent (not sure exactly where they were previously), and their rise has been very sharp during the playoffs. I would still consider the Heat to be a very favorable matchup for the Celtics.
Makes sense, obviously I think that the 77% was way too high no matter the opponent, and I think the 71.5% is still probably too high. But it was interesting that the Celts chances dropped significantly from yesterday.
Feels like one of the things Siakam is struggling with is strength---he is not able to get forward progress against any of the Celtics defenders and he needs that for his game. Celtics and Rockets both seem to have bet that stoutness is a substitute for height and the data is pretty promising right now.
And it feels like they are doing to Siakam what they did to Embiid in the last round which is to be mindful of where the offensive focal point actually gets the ball in a halfcourt set and then work to push them just a few inches off of their spot. Its literally using physicality to change a probability by a small, but statistically meaningful amount.
NBA adjustments really are about creating or closing windows. When its executed well it looks easy but navigating around and moving other large human beings who aren't inclined to cooperate seems impossible.
That's because post players today don't know anything besides bulling their way to the hoop. The way to beat strength is with length and skill. Siakam is trying to power his way past Grant Williams, and he's running into a brick wall. If he had a couple of decent post moves, he could still make some hay down there.
But this is a bit of a hobby horse of mine, the demise of post play in the game today....
The problem with low post scoring is that it's slow. Siakam's a fantastic transition scorer, unfortunately Boston's taken that away from him, and he's not particularly good at creating his own shot in the halfcourt. He is a fantastic sidekick, though, if you have an alpha. Which the Raptors don't.
Do you mean data from watching games or is there some sort of data measuring strength versus height? I'm asking only because DA seems to be drafting/obtaining guys who are stout (JB is both strong and athletic, Semi, Granite, Edwards is strong for his size; and Wannamaker).
The two big things I wondered at beginning of series were:
1. Can Toronto create in half court against Celitcs D?
2. Can Toronto stay consistently in front of Celtics scorers?
Right now it's a resounding no on both. We'll see what else Nurse comes up with, he is a very good coach. But the players are a fixed set and this just has never looked like a great matchup for Toronto.
As WBCD notes, Celts aren't doubling a ton. Toronto does a lot of cutting and back-door stuff that has dried up wtihout doubles and with the C dropping back.
1. Can Toronto create in half court against Celitcs D?
2. Can Toronto stay consistently in front of Celtics scorers?
Right now it's a resounding no on both. We'll see what else Nurse comes up with, he is a very good coach. But the players are a fixed set and this just has never looked like a great matchup for Toronto.
As WBCD notes, Celts aren't doubling a ton. Toronto does a lot of cutting and back-door stuff that has dried up wtihout doubles and with the C dropping back.
One of the videos posted somewhere also showed that Siakam is good at passing from the post when he's doubled. However, Cs aren't doubling him in the post, making him go 1 on 1. down there. I'm sure it takes a lot out of Siakam to post up and try to score 10x per game too.
I meant the performance data during the year.
I imagine they have a scouting-oriented view on defending taller guys with the body and they may well have validated that statistically by looking at specific matchups....I don't know the balance of qualitative and quantitative you'd want there.
As someone who has historically been annoyed at Stevens defenses over-doubling, this makes me so happy.
To be fair, I think a lot of the over-doubling was probably a direct effect of having worse defenders on the team than they do now. More guys who can hold their own against a variety of positions, and not many clearly exploitable mismatches.
OK thanks. Just curious as you are much more wired into that stuff than me.
Well put. “Just shooting over” guys from 10-15ft really isn’t good value when they’re banging on you in the post.
Siakam really needs someone to create for him, and aging, injured Lowry ain't that guy. They're loaded with shotmakers, but lack elite shot creation. It's a huge advantage for Boston when they don't need to double or gang defend (as with Giannis) anyone because no one can really hurt you one on one in the halfcourt.
Strangely, if you go by their RAPTOR player rater projection, the Rockets are roughly 2 to 1 favorites (65% to 35%) to win the series. If you go by their Elo forecast, it's flipped (68% Lakers, 32% Rockets).
Rockets also with only a 3% chance of winning the title based on Elo, but 20% based on the RAPTOR player projection.
Maybe 538 thinks D'Antoni is a terrible coach and the sum is worse than the parts? Maybe this thing is just a work in progress and better not to over think it....
I couldn't find good player splits for the Celtics' best performers following a loss, but it does appear as a team, betting-wise, they are 3rd best in the league ATS (against the spread) coming off a loss. An obvious candidate to improve for Game 4 and give the team a morale boost is Jayson Tatum. It was an off night shooting at 5-18, but he did have 6 assists and is always a good to great defender. That minor contribution along with Kemba's breakout still almost won them Game 3.
On the Toronto side, Lowry and VanVleet are officially heating up. The Celtics have to adjust and create a wall for those guys again, if Ibaka shakes off his 0-3 from Game 3 and makes 3-pointers again and Gasol sneaks in for a few dunks so be it. If Tatum fires on all cylinders again and the defense gets close to G1 & G2 levels, this can be over in five.
On the Toronto side, Lowry and VanVleet are officially heating up. The Celtics have to adjust and create a wall for those guys again, if Ibaka shakes off his 0-3 from Game 3 and makes 3-pointers again and Gasol sneaks in for a few dunks so be it. If Tatum fires on all cylinders again and the defense gets close to G1 & G2 levels, this can be over in five.
Away from the heat of the game:
I know there was back and forth last night, after Anunoby hit the game winner, about "why did the Celtics employ a zone?" with 0.5 seconds left. I'll admit I'm not a hardcore X's and O's guy, but I don't buy the logic of the zone there. The point was made that you can run lots of plays against a man to man to shake someone free. True. But it seems you can run lots of plays against a zone to free someone too (e.g., what if I stack five players at the foul line, disperse them, then restack maybe three on one side of the court?)
It seems last night, with half a second left, you should mostly fear two things: (1) A play leading to an easy tip in (2) Someone getting the ball, wide open from behind the three-point line, in a comfortable position (i.e., with his feet set).
With a man to man, it seems more likely a player would get the ball either in motion or having just ducked behind a screen (so coming off motion), and would probably have a hand in his face. But last night Anunoby was just standing there, unguarded. He was so incredibly wide open that Lowry could throw an overhead rainbow pass -- not a direct slingshot -- and a streaking Jaylen Brown (who is far from slow) could be so far away that he didn't even graze the shot when he leaped forward.
I know hindsight is always 20-20. But is it really acknowledged among strategists of the game that a zone is the best way to go with less than one second remaining? A zone just seems vulnerable to overloading and also to giving players too much space to comfortably catch the ball. Curious what others think.
I know there was back and forth last night, after Anunoby hit the game winner, about "why did the Celtics employ a zone?" with 0.5 seconds left. I'll admit I'm not a hardcore X's and O's guy, but I don't buy the logic of the zone there. The point was made that you can run lots of plays against a man to man to shake someone free. True. But it seems you can run lots of plays against a zone to free someone too (e.g., what if I stack five players at the foul line, disperse them, then restack maybe three on one side of the court?)
It seems last night, with half a second left, you should mostly fear two things: (1) A play leading to an easy tip in (2) Someone getting the ball, wide open from behind the three-point line, in a comfortable position (i.e., with his feet set).
With a man to man, it seems more likely a player would get the ball either in motion or having just ducked behind a screen (so coming off motion), and would probably have a hand in his face. But last night Anunoby was just standing there, unguarded. He was so incredibly wide open that Lowry could throw an overhead rainbow pass -- not a direct slingshot -- and a streaking Jaylen Brown (who is far from slow) could be so far away that he didn't even graze the shot when he leaped forward.
I know hindsight is always 20-20. But is it really acknowledged among strategists of the game that a zone is the best way to go with less than one second remaining? A zone just seems vulnerable to overloading and also to giving players too much space to comfortably catch the ball. Curious what others think.
I think there are valid rationales for zone and man but I agree that I would have preferred man. With zone, a lack of communication can leave someone wide open as we saw last night. With man, there can still be a breakdown but it’s much harder to shake your man and get a shot off with 0.5 seconds. All I wanted was Toronto to have to take an off balance shot and I could have lived with whatever happened. It’s REALLY tough to take a moving 3 in 0.5 seconds.
But bottom line is we could defend that play like 100 times and probably would only lose a handful of times. We just got really unlucky that last night was one of those hits. Sucks.
Yeah, kind of have to tip your cap. It took a perfect pass and they executed it. I'm more upset that they came out so flat in the third quarter. Up 10, they had a chance to bury them and just about end the series right then and there but they came out of halftime super flat and sloppy on the offensive end. Credit to Toronto's zone, but I wish Brad maybe went to Kanter quicker to get the offense flowing better even if it hurt the defense. They did absolutely nothing on the offensive end without Kanter in the third.
Most teams go zone when the ball is taken out from under the basket because it prevents someone from getting screened and a man flying open free. I would think the reason for the zone last night on the SLOB play is to prevent any easy catch and shoot opportunities.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t0aLmBCXoqA
You can go full Zapruder from 1:53 - 2:03
1. Brown screwed up the zone coverage, by fronting and getting sealed by Gasol
2. Anyone that wants to blame Theis, just observe where Theis ends up with the ball in the air, before it hits OG's hands. He had the middle covered. In fact, by the time the ball hits OGs hands, Theis is on the other side of the lane right behind JB
3. Smart instructs Brown at 1:58 to not lose OG on his backside. Brown ignores Smart, and fronts Gasol
You can go full Zapruder from 1:53 - 2:03
1. Brown screwed up the zone coverage, by fronting and getting sealed by Gasol
2. Anyone that wants to blame Theis, just observe where Theis ends up with the ball in the air, before it hits OG's hands. He had the middle covered. In fact, by the time the ball hits OGs hands, Theis is on the other side of the lane right behind JB
3. Smart instructs Brown at 1:58 to not lose OG on his backside. Brown ignores Smart, and fronts Gasol
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