Great post
@Deathofthebambino
I wouldn't say they are "slow" defensively. I wouldn't say they're fast either. I would put the Pats defense this year at middle of the pack in the NFL, and that's because of the secondary and the coaching.
Bentley is slow but of their front 7 ILB/OLB/Edges Uche, Wino, Wise, Caash, Rivers, Calhoun, Simon - all of them are fast and athletic. DT wise Cowart is athletic and Guy has above average speed at DT. Beau Allen is slow though, sure. Butler plays quickly. I think this is a fast unit and if we go by their athletic testing they definitely are a fast unit... obviously their play speed counts way more than that but Simon, Wise, Wino, and Guy all play fast. I think you are short-changing them on speed. I think their issue is most of these guys are unproven but speed shouldn't be an issue.
They lost their 4 starting LBs or 3 because they were often in Nickel. Replacing the entire starting LB group is freaking hard in just one off-season.
The problem is I don't know how they score points. Cam Newton could surprise the shit out of me and turn out to be great (and FTR, I have no problem with the move, they had to bring in somebody if Stidham wasn't the guy), but I don't see it. He's 31 years old, has a ton of mileage, and has barely played in almost 2 years. But more importantly, he has no weapons. None. Jules is Jules, but he's losing a step and his 13 drops last year were brutal, even with a Brady to pick up the pieces on those drives. Sony Michel isn't Christian McCaffrey. And then what? Are people sold on Harry (we all heard about his training camp exploits last year, so I don't put nearly any faith in that stuff). He's got some chemistry with Byrd, he did throw him a ball for 8 yards 2 years ago. Where are the points going to come from? Cam can't scramble around and take hits and hope someone gets open. They won't, and he'll get killed.
I've never been sold on Harry except as a big slot which... they aren't using him as /sigh. I am higher on Cam than you are but he is loaded with risk. He's also had like 3 weeks of practice to get their entire playbook. Yikes.
WR is a dumpster fire. I think they have 5-6 guys who would all be ok WR4's or WR5s but most of them are better in the slot or as flankers and no one is an ideal X. Again, yikes. Jules is their best X, slot, and flanker. He's also old and injury prone. More yikes...
The depth on this team is truly scary too. They aren't staying healthy for 16 games, and the depth chart on both sides of the ball is pretty weak. Again, some of the rookies and young guys could very well show out and become studs, but I just don't see how this is anything but a significant transition/rebuild year. In a normal season, with a normal schedule, I would say that's probably enough to get them 8-10 wins, but this isn't a normal year, or a normal schedule. The Pats giving 6.5 in week 1 to Miami....Take advantage if you're so inclined....
They are replacing between 40-60% of defensive snaps from last year. Whew. Honestly if the Pats somehow make the playoffs I'd argue this is one of BB's best coaching jobs yet and reminiscent of 2010 where he won coach of the year. If they win the division this year and he doesn't win COTY let's burn the whole fucking place down.
I'd like to make the case for why the depth isn't so bad even if it is young and unproven.
WR: I didn't know who he was last year but I think he could turn into a more versatile Amendola. I'm talking about the Gun Show. If the coaching staff is giving him reps at each position and wants him to work more than just the slot that is a positive development. Over the years not every year 2 WR would get increased duties like that. I expect him to be a very good #4 with improved strength, speed, and route running. I think he actually has some good route breaks. He can also field punts. Do we really want Jules taking that duty given his age and injury history? BB seems to finally agree on that point too. Thomas and Meyers are probably below average #5 options but Meyers could develop into a solid Sanu replacement. What they lack is an X receiver although Byrd, Harry, and Jules can all play X to some degree. To me they have a bunch of 4’s and 5’s and we will have to wait and see if any are starter material.
TE: I've covered this but you couldn't pick two better team fits than Keene and Asiasi (I may have to change my avatar to him when I get a picture of him scoring his first TD). They were a dumpster fire at TE last year. Now it's true that Keene likely will take 2-3 years to develop (as does the average TE) but Asiasi is already close to being ready to go out of the gate. He was a good route runner in college and by the end of the season needed just some fine tuning with his blocking. In camp Asiasi has impressed. If Izzo has improved his blocking and added weight/strength he should be a decent 3rd TE who specializes in blocking. I think he disappointed last year in that regard but he was one of the better blocking TEs coming out and has gotten some buzz around his blocking this time around in camp. He might surprise. Jakob Johnson (counting him here) blocked well in limited snaps... his short film review was a fun one. It's basically, oh hey this mother fucker can block... damnit why did he get hurt?! I think he makes us miss Develin a lot less (Develin was such a great blocker).
RB: This is easy... White and Burkhead are our backups. The best receiving RB in the league and an excellent all around backup RB in Burkhead who is a valuable ST member. I also think Harris could be a bell-cow back. I like his potential more than what I have seen from Sony. No idea if Miller has anything left.
OL: Of all the positions OLs tend to be one of the easier transitions to the NFL. We have some good OL prospects in the pipeline. Froholdt can play OG/OC and had a much better camp than last year. Arkansas just didn't have good coaching. Onwenu got great coaching at Michigan and had a good camp. I think in his entire career he let up 3 sacks and 0 in his senior year. He went in the 6th round because he played at 375 pounds at Michigan and didn't test at the combine. If he gets a chance to make the roster I think he could actually be something. He did learn some OC in the off-season but personally I don't think even a trimmed down Onwenu can be a center. His tape and his camp reviews are encouraging because he is much more of an athletic dancing bear type than you'd expect from a giant. Herron who admittedly I was not big on at all has actually had a good camp. I think the skinny on him was he played hurt all of 2019 at Oregon and that explains why his tape last year was so shitty. He has impressed as a potential swing OT and also a guy who can kick inside to play OG. So far we have 3 guys who are unproven but all have reasons for us to be optimistic that they can contribute. I concede they are unproven. Cajuste was always a bit of a gamble because while he played angry and had some ridiculous flashes at WV he had a lot of technique to fix and to learn to be able to play at the pro level. It doesn't surprise me at all that he struggled in his first real live-action camp given his technique coming out. He had some boom/bust to him. Cunningham I don't have a ton of things to say on. Indicators are from beat writers that he could be a utility player on the OL but he's not anything special.
QB: Hoyer the coach/backup QB and a developmental prospect in Stidham. Nothing special here unless Stidham grows in year 2 but this isn't a bad situation and it's always good to be developing QBs as the Patriots do.
DL: Tough to say if a bulked up Wise will be a starter or not. His issues were against the run but if he's bulked up and retained his explosiveness he might be a decent starter on the edge or as a 3-4 base DE depending on what we play that given Sunday. Cowart is an above average athlete and also had a v good camp. Not everyone had a good camp mind you. Harry for example did not have a good camp. But Cowart did and in limited snaps looked like a solid rotational guy last year with potential for upside. I look forward to seeing where he goes this year. Butler is another solid starter or rotational guy who keeps on improving.
ILB: Here is where I have some questions. Caash, Hall, Harris... yeah unproven and not exactly high draft stock. Caash's tape is fine. He can be over aggressive. I think Caash and Hall and Harris are all guys who I would rather see cracking skulls on STs but of any of the positions I think the depth here is the most unproven and the worst in quality. I am not sold on Bentley as his processing speed is fine but he is a bit of a slow thumper. Uche will take a lot of ILB snaps and I think he's a great fit but needs more reps. I wouldn't be surprised if he struggled this year but eventually became a player of KVN's caliber and excellence. His athleticism and burst is off the charts. He kept up with freaking KJ Hamler on a slot rep. That's stupid fast.
OLB: Simon is a good starter who doesn't get enough love here because he doesn't get a ton of sacks. He is your B+ guy and responsibility sound. He sets an edge and you can't move him. Notice how the Titans and Ravens did not run towards him much... Wino needs to improve against the run but he looks to be another solid B+ type. Calhoun needs to stay healthy but he is a decent backup. Rivers I have no idea - I liked him coming out but he's on his last life if he even makes team. He has such a good bull rush and can convert speed to power that if he just gets a few other moves he should be a good pass rusher. Don't know if that happens. Copeland is a solid STer and all around backup. Jennings is another guy who looked like he can handle the edge or stack duties and coming out was one of the most polished prospects (not a high ceiling but a decent floor). Jennings has some of the best hands in the draft and is good at setting an edge. I think he might take some of the early snaps and roles that KVN had last year and we will see how it goes. He can also play some ILB. He has the traits that you want in an OLB/ILB it's just if he can put it all together in year 1.
Of all the positions I am most concerned on in the defense it is: OLB/Edge and ILB.
S and CB: Do we need to go over their depth here? I think not. We all know how good it is.
So overall while guys are unproven in their depth chart a lot of positions at least you know the guy has the kind of profile that should make them successful at the NFL level. Is it a risk? YES. I concede that going with unproven or somewhat unproven rookies and second year guys is a risk. However they have both the volume and quality that you'd like to see minus ILB and perhaps swing OT.
I think there is a reason to believe in the youth movement this year. Also, this is the best year of any in the last five where you want to see what you have in your prospects before 2021 where you might lead the league in cap space and can roll over even more from this year to next. I think they end up around 6-10 to 9-7 and they start out slow and end the season well.
Again to repeat: if BB wins the division with the amount of turnover, the shortened off-season, and with so many rookie or second year guys contributing he should almost automatically win the coach of the year award.
Overall I think we see a lot of 21 or 12 personnel with Harris as the feature back, Asiasi and either Izzo or Jakob Johnson. Probably in 11 40-50% of the time as well with Jules/Harry/Byrd as the starting 3. I have major concerns about the offense too given the rooks after TE and the shit show at WR.
