The Heat is on, ECF here we come!

joe dokes

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Hope JB is okay. He seemed to be running gingerly after slip.

It will be interesting to see if Robinson and Herro can stay on the floor. Surely they can't play both of them at the same time.
Today's Glob is not as reassuring as I'd like:

Players have been slipping all over the floor during these Orlando games. Maybe it’s the Florida humidity or something, but it hasn’t been great. Brown tweaked his groin when he slipped and took an awkward fall after converting a fast-break layup. He stayed in the game, though.
“It started hurting and, to be honest, adrenaline took over,” Brown said. “I couldn’t feel anything. I’m feeling it now, but at the moment, I didn’t feel [anything].”
 

DGreenwood

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The weird part is that Brown slipped on his own sweat. The reason he was so far ahead of the play on that fast break dunk was that he was just starting to get back on D after being knocked to the floor and sliding into the base of the hoop trying to rebound Tatum's miss on the previous play.

I don't think the kid had time to mop it up. It was a Toronto fast break off the Tatum miss, a Boston rebound, and a fast break the other way leading to the JB dunk and slip.
 

RG33

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I’m really excited about this matchup for the Celtics. I never worry about their D with this team, I worry about their ability to score, and we are not going to face a tougher defense than we just did with Toronto.

I would play 1-on-1 against Butler/Bam and just defend the shit out of the arc, and make Butler score 40 to beat you. If we shut down Dragic and their shooters, this series won’t be close. I would think Kemba can have a nice bounce back series (he is going to feel like he is playing playground ball not having VV and Lowry all over him) and that Tatum should dominate.

Celtics in 5.

Let’s go!
 

Kliq

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I’m really excited about this matchup for the Celtics. I never worry about their D with this team, I worry about their ability to score, and we are not going to face a tougher defense than we just did with Toronto.

I would play 1-on-1 against Butler/Bam and just defend the shit out of the arc, and make Butler score 40 to beat you. If we shut down Dragic and their shooters, this series won’t be close. I would think Kemba can have a nice bounce back series (he is going to feel like he is playing playground ball not having VV and Lowry all over him) and that Tatum should dominate.

Celtics in 5.

Let’s go!
To me in the Toronto series I feel like Kemba struggled to make shots; not necessarily getting his shot off. I know there was/is legitimate concern about him getting his shot off against playoff defense, but he was getting good looks and beating guys off the dribble; he was just missing. He’ll make those shots (as he did earlier in the series) most of the time and be fine.
 

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I think Jae is going to have a big role on D and Miami's success will depend on his effectiveness.

That said, Celtics in 6
 

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I'm just so happy that we have at least another couple weeks of C's basketball.

Miami is an interesting and sort of fun team. And they're well coached. Having said that, I like the match-up a lot, especially with GH coming back and taking minutes from Semi. I think it may be 5, but I'll go Celts in 6.
 

nattysez

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These are statistically the two best defensive teams in the playoffs but the Celtics are better by a wide margin in terms of EFG/Drating.

The thing is, if Lowry was tough to deal with, imagine how difficult a rotation of Butler, Crowder, Iguodala, Dragic and Olynyk are going to be for the Celtics. Spoelstra with an arsenal of those NBA grifters as well as Bam, Herro, Nunn and Robinson is kind of a handful.

Kemba's knee is the question mark here as well as if Hayward can give them anything at all. With both healthy they are a better team than Miami. However with Walker clearly out of sorts and Hayward still a bit away, this feels like a battle.
Having to deal with Nurse and Spoelstra back to back is a real test for Stephens & Co. So far, so good.
 

dhellers

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I think Jae is going to have a big role on D and Miami's success will depend on his effectiveness.

That said, Celtics in 6
If Hayward comes back (and the history of Hayward expediting injury recoveries isn't that good) -- there could be a very interesting subplot of Jae Vs. Gordon.
I doubt that Jae forgets the Celtics (including its fanbase) tossing him aside in their lust for Hayward. And though at this level bulletin board material isn't that useful, we might see a fired up Jae!
 

The Social Chair

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If Hayward comes back (and the history of Hayward expediting injury recoveries isn't that good) -- there could be a very interesting subplot of Jae Vs. Gordon.
I doubt that Jae forgets the Celtics (including its fanbase) tossing him aside in their lust for Hayward. And though at this level bulletin board material isn't that useful, we might see a fired up Jae!
Celtics fans won't forget Crowder hip checking Gordon on the play he got injured on.
 

RG33

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Does anyone else think the C's "needed" this last series to go 7 games? I feel like they won't be taking anything for granted against Miami now.

Celtics in 6.
Yes. I think it was good for the young guys to realize you need a killer instinct in the postseason, and you have to finish teams off when you have them laying for dead.

Also, Spoelstra and Stevens are both top 5ish coaches in the NBA to me, so I am excited to see them joust (sams the Nick Nurse histrionics).

Lastly, fuck Pat Riley.
 

54thMA

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Ok, stupid question/thought, but I'm a casual fan, so have mercy.

Has the NBA given any thought to the conference finals/NBA finals being played at a neutral site a la the NCAA tournament/Super Bowl?

To me, the games I've watched have been better than normal, maybe the lack of wear and tear due to travel has contributed to that?

Imagine the dough a host city or two or three would make.

It would be a combination of the NCAA tournament and the Super Bowl.

Ok, let the mocking begin................................
 

TripleOT

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Celtics should win this series even if Hayward isn’t much of a factor. Brown will neutralize Butler, but Miami has no one to neutralize Tatum, who should continue his ascent to superstardom against easier defenders.

Kemba is going to have a big quickness advantage against Dragic, and probably will be hidden in defense against stand still shooter Robinson. Smart can get into Dragic.

The X factor for Miami is Bam. The Celtics can’t let him go off like he did in the one Heat win against them this season.

Celtics in 5 if GH comes back for game 2, Celtics in 6if he’s not abig
 

slamminsammya

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Ok, stupid question/thought, but I'm a casual fan, so have mercy.

Has the NBA given any thought to the conference finals/NBA finals being played at a neutral site a la the NCAA tournament/Super Bowl?

To me, the games I've watched have been better than normal, maybe the lack of wear and tear due to travel has contributed to that?

Imagine the dough a host city or two or three would make.

It would be a combination of the NCAA tournament and the Super Bowl.

Ok, let the mocking begin................................
One theory is that shooting is up because the sightlines are cleaner in the bubble due to the lack of a crowd behind the basket. Free throw percentages are markedly up.
 

The Social Chair

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From ESPN

In terms of the four factors of basketball success, the Celtics' biggest defensive weakness during the regular season was their tendency to foul. They ranked 24th in terms of opponent free throw attempts per field goal attempt.

Meanwhile, led by Butler, Miami attempted the most free throws per field goal attempt (.299) of any team in the NBA. That has carried over in the playoffs, where the Heat's free throw attempt rate has jumped to .351 per field goal attempt despite the fact that their first two opponents (Indiana and Milwaukee) both ranked in the top 10 in lowest opponent free throw rates during the regular season.
Brown and Tatum staying out of foul trouble will be one of the keys to the series.
 

jaytftwofive

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Got it now I remember. The Celts seem to play not on full cylinders the 2nd half of that season but once the playoffs started... Wow!!! The first game I think they won by 8 or 10 but Garnett was suspended for the 2nd game and they kicked butt!!! Series was over right there. I didn't think they'd beat the Cavs but they did and that sent Labron to South Beach. I knew they'd beat the Magic and then the That Lakers Final... Damn they came so close. Who know how it would have turned out if Perkins played in game 7. And they were 6-6 on the road in those playoffs vs. 3-10 for 08 when they won it all. That game 7 was a real heartbreak.
 

lovegtm

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For both Heat fans and Celtics fans, the contrast in this series from the prior ones will feel jarring.

For the Heat, everything on offense will feel more rushed and less comfortable. A lot of those clean 3-point looks will be gone due to effort and switching, and it will feel like stuff just isn’t going down as much.

For the Celtics fans, it will feel odd to watch an opponent that occasionally can generate advantages in the halfcourt, and it will feel as if more tough choices are being forced in terms of helping off shooters.

When the Celtics are on offense, things will feel a lot less stifling. It won’t feel like every decision has to be made instantly or else become a turnover. There will be weak links to attack in man, and bigger holes in the zones.

The series doesn’t really start until the Heat target Kemba. If they can’t find a way to do that, this will be over in 5, but I expect them to attack him with Butler and be able to force uncomfortable adjustments/help.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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For both Heat fans and Celtics fans, the contrast in this series from the prior ones will feel jarring.

For the Heat, everything on offense will feel more rushed and less comfortable. A lot of those clean 3-point looks will be gone due to effort and switching, and it will feel like stuff just isn’t going down as much.

For the Celtics fans, it will feel odd to watch an opponent that occasionally can generate advantages in the halfcourt, and it will feel as if more tough choices are being forced in terms of helping off shooters.

When the Celtics are on offense, things will feel a lot less stifling. It won’t feel like every decision has to be made instantly or else become a turnover. There will be weak links to attack in man, and bigger holes in the zones.

The series doesn’t really start until the Heat target Kemba. If they can’t find a way to do that, this will be over in 5, but I expect them to attack him with Butler and be able to force uncomfortable adjustments/help.
The Heat are essentially right on top of the Raptors in terms of opponent FG% as well as D rating for the playoffs. This is very likely a seven game series.

I will be happy to be wrong but this current Miami team is clearly dangerous.
 

lovegtm

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The Heat are essentially right on top of the Raptors in terms of opponent FG% as well as D rating for the playoffs. This is very likely a seven game series.

I will be happy to be wrong but this current Miami team is clearly dangerous.
No argument that they're dangerous--that much is clear.

D-rating for a sample size as small as the playoffs is nearly meaningless relative to the matchups and process by which that D-rating was obtained.

The 2019 Celtics had an amazing defensive series by rating against Indiana in Round 1, but that clearly didn't mean anything for Round 2, and no one expected it to. Miami's 2020 playoff D-rating has been similarly juiced by playing that neutered Indy offense, followed by 2 Bucks games against basically no Giannis--the Bucks without him would be an offensively-challenged 6 seed.

This is not to say the Heat are pushovers or have no chance. If the Heat win, I expect it to be because either a lot of offense happened, and the Celtics just couldn't communicate defensively against all their actions, or because the Celtics just stagnated/went cold repeatedly against zone looks. I don't think 98-93 rockfights are the path forward for Miami in this matchup.

Sometimes “the Celtics are better” is the right take. It pretty clearly was against Toronto, even without Hayward. But “better” doesn’t mean “lock”. In this post-Warriors world, any of the remaining teams could absolutely win the title.
 
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In this post-Warriors world, any of the remaining teams could absolutely win the title.
Isn't the conventional wisdom that either Los Angeles team would be strongly favored against either Boston or Miami? With the possible exception of Denver, I think any of the remaining teams could absolutely reach the Finals, and Boston or Miami would certainly have at least a puncher's chance in the Finals, but with all due respect to present company (and the 538 model), I find it hard to think Boston or Miami would have better than a 1-in-4 chance of winning the title.
 

lovegtm

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Isn't the conventional wisdom that either Los Angeles team would be strongly favored against either Boston or Miami? With the possible exception of Denver, I think any of the remaining teams could absolutely reach the Finals, and Boston or Miami would certainly have at least a puncher's chance in the Finals, but with all due respect to present company (and the 538 model), I find it hard to think Boston or Miami would have better than a 1-in-4 chance of winning the title.
The Celtics would absolutely have a better than 1/4 shot against the LA teams if Hayward is back. The real nightmare matchups for Boston were Milwaukee and Philly with Simmons, and they lucked out hard avoiding both of those. The LA teams are really good (I underestimated playoff Rondo), but they don't present specific matchup issues the way those other teams would have.

Also, the Celtics playoff defense is really, really freaking good, with no remaining teams who can really exploit Theis in the post (unless Denver slips through in a miracle).
 

tbrown_01923

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I thought about this - not only playoff, but added against boston? it'd be a good problem to consider.

Miami should be a fun series - Kemba needs a couple of days, but I don't see him being hounded and locked down like he was by FVV/Lowry. That alone should open the C's offense back up. The Bam matchup is the one that might be the most interesting... I hope Grant is able to put some minutes in against him.
 

Koufax

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I'm with Conigs, at least as far as the Lakers are concerned. LeBron James is as dominant as ever and now he has Anthony Davis, arguably a top 10 player in the league. I don't think that the Celtics could win more than two games against them. Against the Clippers, yes the Celtics could compete. But meanwhile, there is a really challenging series against Miami and I'm getting my popcorn ready.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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No argument that they're dangerous--that much is clear.

D-rating for a sample size as small as the playoffs is nearly meaningless relative to the matchups and process by which that D-rating was obtained.

The 2019 Celtics had an amazing defensive series by rating against Indiana in Round 1, but that clearly didn't mean anything for Round 2, and no one expected it to. Miami's 2020 playoff D-rating has been similarly juiced by playing that neutered Indy offense, followed by 2 Bucks games against basically no Giannis--the Bucks without him would be an offensively-challenged 6 seed.

This is not to say the Heat are pushovers or have no chance. If the Heat win, I expect it to be because either a lot of offense happened, and the Celtics just couldn't communicate defensively against all their actions, or because the Celtics just stagnated/went cold repeatedly against zone looks. I don't think 98-93 rockfights are the path forward for Miami in this matchup.

Sometimes “the Celtics are better” is the right take. It pretty clearly was against Toronto, even without Hayward. But “better” doesn’t mean “lock”. In this post-Warriors world, any of the remaining teams could absolutely win the title.
I understand the limitations of D rating but as you know, defensive metrics are flawed. However I feel comfortable using it to make my point given that I am comparing it to the Raptors and Celtics who have similarly small sample sizes.

You can disregard all of the data but in this case it shows what most people would agree with - statistically these teams and the Lakers are the best defenses in the playoffs.

In any event, lets not bog down the discussion trying to convince one another. I will be thrilled if your Celtics in five prediction is correct but I don't see it. I see more rock fights.
 

BigSoxFan

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I don’t see it either. Miami was just so impressive against Milwaukee. If they continue that level of play, Celtics will be in trouble. Their shooters are really going to be problematic. I’m more confident about our offense this series, especially with a Hayward return, but Miami’s shooting prowess gives me a lot of concern. I see another 7 game series with hopefully the good guys prevailing.
 

lovegtm

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I understand the limitations of D rating but as you know, defensive metrics are flawed. However I feel comfortable using it to make my point given that I am comparing it to the Raptors and Celtics who have similarly small sample sizes.

You can disregard all of the data but in this case it shows what most people would agree with - statistically these teams and the Lakers are the best defenses in the playoffs.

In any event, lets not bog down the discussion trying to convince one another. I will be thrilled if your Celtics in five prediction is correct but I don't see it. I see more rock fights.
For the record, I said Cs in 6 :)

With a healthy Hayward, I would have said 5.

For the Milwaukee series, the Heat’s d-rating in the 3 Giannis games was about 111.
 
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lovegtm

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I'm with Conigs, at least as far as the Lakers are concerned. LeBron James is as dominant as ever and now he has Anthony Davis, arguably a top 10 player in the league. I don't think that the Celtics could win more than two games against them. Against the Clippers, yes the Celtics could compete. But meanwhile, there is a really challenging series against Miami and I'm getting my popcorn ready.
Hmmm, not sure I buy this wrt the Lakers. I don’t weight all regular season games heavily, but when it’s a marquee matchup that both teams are up for, that matters imo.

The Celtics blew the Lakers out in the first one, and barely lost in the 2nd without Kemba.

The Clippers games were both amazing and basically playoff games, and while the Celtics acquitted themselves well, locked in LAC is rough for them.

Kawhi is the best player in the world, PG is still really good, and they’re a lot deeper than the Lakers. I would rather play the latter, and it’s not super-close for me, but reasonable minds could differ.
 

BigSoxFan

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Hmmm, not sure I buy this wrt the Lakers. I don’t weight all regular season games heavily, but when it’s a marquee matchup that both teams are up for, that matters imo.

The Celtics blew the Lakers out in the first one, and barely lost in the 2nd without Kemba.

The Clippers games were both amazing and basically playoff games, and while the Celtics acquitted themselves well, locked in LAC is rough for them.

Kawhi is the best player in the world, PG is still really good, and they’re a lot deeper than the Lakers. I would rather play the latter, and it’s not super-close for me, but reasonable minds could differ.
And Lakers have nobody to guard Tatum. It feels crazy to prefer playing LeBron/AD but I think I would.
 

Koufax

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You know more than me, but I think Lebron is still the best player in the world. Yes, the Clippers are deeper, but I think Lebron can will his way to victory any time he has to.
 

InstaFace

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Except, ya know, even getting into the playoffs last year. Or against the Warriors (unless Draymond is suspended and half the team injured). Or in lots of other situations where he couldn't just "decide" to win. Maybe in those situations, he just didn't have the will to be victorious?
 

lovegtm

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You know more than me, but I think Lebron is still the best player in the world. Yes, the Clippers are deeper, but I think Lebron can will his way to victory any time he has to.
I submit to the court LeBron’s “oh fuck” GIF when he saw Kawhi coming back on the court in the 2014 Finals. And that was before he could play offense.

No one is disputing LeBron’s greatness, but Kawhi has a 2-way gear no one else can hit imo. I would give a lot to see the 2017 WCF with no Zaza...

And then of course the Clippers completely shit the bed tonight and I look like an idiot :)
 

shoelace

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I don’t see it either. Miami was just so impressive against Milwaukee. If they continue that level of play, Celtics will be in trouble. Their shooters are really going to be problematic. I’m more confident about our offense this series, especially with a Hayward return, but Miami’s shooting prowess gives me a lot of concern. I see another 7 game series with hopefully the good guys prevailing.


Miami is a very good shooting team, but I tend to discount their shooting against Milwaukee. Milwaukee was mediocre against the three in the regular season and bad in the playoffs, Orlando shot 38% from three against them in the first round. The Celtics are elite at defending the three, they held Philly to 26% in the first round and Toronto to 32% in the second round. Both of those teams were in the top 10 in three point shooting during the regular season I believe. Miami will win games in this series with hot shooting no doubt, but the Celtics aren't just going to basically concede them in the way that Milwaukee does.

On the other side, Miami has individual defenders who can be exploited. Hayward probably won't play in this series, but my recollection of the Celtics win against Miami in January is that they sought out Duncan Robinson and Hayward torched him. Tatum didn't play in that game and I'm extremely confident that he can do the same thing. It felt to me like Tatum, after being dogged by Toronto's defense in the middle of the series, started to figure stuff out in the 4th quarter/OT of Game 6 and carried it over to Game 7. He just needs to have 4 games like that for the Celtics to win. I feel like Toronto was a tougher matchup for Tatum than Miami will be, and I certainly think that was the case for Kemba as well. If Tatum can build off what he learned in the previous round and Kemba can just not play like utter dogshit, then I'm with lovegtm, Celtics in 6.
 

lovegtm

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I'm never that worried about Kemba: he draws so much attention from defenses, regardless of whether his shot is falling, that the game becomes way easier for everyone else on the floor. Jaylen Brown just needs to not go abnormally cold on open 3s.
 

shoelace

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I'm never that worried about Kemba: he draws so much attention from defenses, regardless of whether his shot is falling, that the game becomes way easier for everyone else on the floor. Jaylen Brown just needs to not go abnormally cold on open 3s.
True, but I expect better of him. It felt to me like Anunoby guarded Kemba extremely well for most of the series and I have less faith that Goran Dragic and Tyler Herro can do the same, but maybe I'm wrong.
 

HomeRunBaker

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True, but I expect better of him. It felt to me like Anunoby guarded Kemba extremely well for most of the series and I have less faith that Goran Dragic and Tyler Herro can do the same, but maybe I'm wrong.
I don’t think you are wrong. Kemba struggles were a direct result of long defenders contesting his shot while taking him out of his comfort zone. I don’t know if Kemba still has another gear but he has never faced this type of playoff defense in the NBA.....but Miami will give him a much greater chance to succeed than the Raptors did. These are not mid-January games in Charlotte he’s playing anymore and that first step isn’t quite as consistently lethal as years past. Should be a fun game within the game to watch.

I know this is a Celtics board but can one person at least acknowledge that in the one game Miami has gone small against us this year with Bam at the 5......he got to the line 18 times? This seems to be a horror matchup against the foul probe Theis.
 

Jimbodandy

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It will be a hard series for the good guys.

Miami will not struggle to score as badly as Toronto did. On the flipside, Miami won't be as oppressive to Tatum/Walker.

They doesn't pose matchup challenges for us, but we do for them. One advantage that they have is their depth imo. That will likely matter over 7 games.

Not rockfights per se, but we will have a lot of back and forth games and may see some blowouts, when one team is shooting lights out.
 

lovegtm

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I don’t think you are wrong. Kemba struggles were a direct result of long defenders contesting his shot while taking him out of his comfort zone. I don’t know if Kemba still has another gear but he has never faced this type of playoff defense in the NBA.....but Miami will give him a much greater chance to succeed than the Raptors did. These are not mid-January games in Charlotte he’s playing anymore and that first step isn’t quite as consistently lethal as years past. Should be a fun game within the game to watch.

I know this is a Celtics board but can one person at least acknowledge that in the one game Miami has gone small against us this year with Bam at the 5......he got to the line 18 times? This seems to be a horror matchup against the foul probe Theis.
The "everybody who doesn't pick against the Celtics is a homer" schtick gets old after awhile. It's low-content posturing.

Bam will present problems at times, but that bubble game felt really weird and low-energy to me from the Celtics end. The Celtics are playing significantly better defense now, and have enough bodies to throw at post guys that I'm not overly concerned about that particular aspect.

I am worried that going small will allow Miami to get very switchy and force the Celtics into grindy isos, which can be a problem for them.
 

Sille Skrub

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I don’t think you are wrong. Kemba struggles were a direct result of long defenders contesting his shot while taking him out of his comfort zone. I don’t know if Kemba still has another gear but he has never faced this type of playoff defense in the NBA.....but Miami will give him a much greater chance to succeed than the Raptors did. These are not mid-January games in Charlotte he’s playing anymore and that first step isn’t quite as consistently lethal as years past. Should be a fun game within the game to watch.
Kemba is 30. If he has lost his top gear, this was a really bad contract. I'm willing to give him a mulligan for the end of the Toronto series. The Raps absolutely focused their D on him and Nick Nurse coached the hell out of them.

However, I am expecting a completely different Kemba Walker going forward. He should be able to round back into form.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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True, but I expect better of him. It felt to me like Anunoby guarded Kemba extremely well for most of the series and I have less faith that Goran Dragic and Tyler Herro can do the same, but maybe I'm wrong.
You're not wrong. Watched the entire MIA-MIL series and none of Dragic, Robinson, and Herro was stopping anyone one on one. Particularly on transition - whenever any MIL player saw that Herro or Robinson were back on D, the MIL player would just head for the hoop and would generally either get fouled or a great look.

Bam, on the other hand, was great. Not just vs Giannis but against anyone he matched up against. As this article states, he's almost surely the key to the series. He may also have extra motivation because he was cut from Team USA last year (for Marvin Bagley and Derrick White, of all people); I know none of the Cs were involved in the decision but maybe he wants to show the world they were wrong.

So BOS is going to see a ton of zone. TOR's zone was very effective against BOS and in the bubble game, MIA's zone bothered BOS too.

So basically this comes down to a 3P shooting contest. Again.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Bam will present problems at times, but that bubble game felt really weird and low-energy to me from the Celtics end. The Celtics are playing significantly better defense now, and have enough bodies to throw at post guys that I'm not overly concerned about that particular aspect.
I don't know if I'd call it weird so much as "transitional" - it was the 3rd game of the bubble; the Cs gave up 119 and 124 points in the two games before that (and 112 to MIA); and as mentioned above, MIA played a lot of zone which at least to me seemed to surprise the Cs.

Maybe a better way to put it is that they were getting their sea legs under them. IIRC BOS was like 2nd last in defense in the bubble after that game. They are not at the bottom any more.
 

Devizier

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Celtics will have to shoot better than they did against Toronto. I know the Raptors' D played a big role in this. It felt like they were passing up (somewhat) open looks during some of those grindfests against the Raptors and that really can't continue.
 

lovegtm

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11,996
I don't know if I'd call it weird so much as "transitional" - it was the 3rd game of the bubble; the Cs gave up 119 and 124 points in the two games before that (and 112 to MIA); and as mentioned above, MIA played a lot of zone which at least to me seemed to surprise the Cs.

Maybe a better way to put it is that they were getting their sea legs under them. IIRC BOS was like 2nd last in defense in the bubble after that game. They are not at the bottom any more.
Yes, that is a much better description than mine.

Although, as we know, this is a Celtics board, so anything positive you say about them is highly suspect.