Getting Smart with Statistics

Euclis20

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I think you said it yourself. Rebounds are more of a team defense thing so TT getting the rebound is more "team". Marcus Smart shutting down Booker one on one is more "Marcus Smart. "
Even if that's the case (not exactly what I said, or at least not what I meant. Defense is a team game, both rebounding and on-ball defense are a part of it, everything requires a team effort), even if on-ball defense is more important or more valuable than defensive rebounding, it doesn't change the key point - defensive rebounding is a part of being a good defender. Smart is a lousy rebounder (and average at best even for his size), so it's a minor con when evaluating his defense as a whole, especially when comparing him to other all-defense types.

And regarding your specific example (Smart forces Booker into a tough shot, TT grabs the miss), it's not as simple as all that. Booker is a real good scorer, 25th in the league in ppg, so Smart has his hands full. In order to get that defense rebound, TT probably has to fight off Ayton, who is 6th in ORPG and 5th in total RPG. Shrugging off individual rebounding ability as just a team concept is a bit harsh, I think.
 

slamminsammya

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Even if that's the case (not exactly what I said, or at least not what I meant. Defense is a team game, both rebounding and on-ball defense are a part of it, everything requires a team effort), even if on-ball defense is more important or more valuable than defensive rebounding, it doesn't change the key point - defensive rebounding is a part of being a good defender. Smart is a lousy rebounder (and average at best even for his size), so it's a minor con when evaluating his defense as a whole, especially when comparing him to other all-defense types.

And regarding your specific example (Smart forces Booker into a tough shot, TT grabs the miss), it's not as simple as all that. Booker is a real good scorer, 25th in the league in ppg, so Smart has his hands full. In order to get that defense rebound, TT probably has to fight off Ayton, who is 6th in ORPG and 5th in total RPG. Shrugging off individual rebounding ability as just a team concept is a bit harsh, I think.
Rebounding is a pretty small component of overall defensive performance. That's even more true these days as offensive rebounding becomes increasingly rare. 4 of the top 10 defenses in the NBA last year had below average defensive rebounding rates.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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SSS and conditioning. He's played a lot of his early career on the thicker side too, (14/15 thru 17/18) although I'd guess it's easier to play "out of shape" when you are 20-24 as opposed to being 27 in a few months.
Marcus actually seems thinner to me this year but maybe that's an optical illusion.

What I really worry about is that Marcus and JB have played a lot of BBall over, what, the last 18 months from the World Cup to a deep run to the playoffs. The irregular down time probably didn't help either.
 

NomarsFool

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This is a bit of a tangent, but one thing I've been wondering about lately is whether teams have some sort of play or direction about whether to crash the offensive board or not. Maybe it's just random, or has something to do with the type of play that was being run, but on some plays after the shot is taken, the offense is totally off and running back on defense - leaving (very often only 1 defensive player) the other team to collect the rebound. I feel like there are many times I see someone on the defense collecting that defensive rebound completely uncontested.

Of course, that is not always the case. There have been numerous games where the Celtics have just been killed on the defensive glass and the other team has had 2-3 possessions. Is it a strategy that the team runs (Coach tells them to crash the boards OR focus on getting back for the next X minutes?). Since they track everything nowadays, seems like it won't be long before they come up with a statistic for contested defensive rebounds vs. uncontested defensive rebounds.
 

NomarsFool

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Interesting. Old friend Kanter has a number above 50% as does RWIII, while TT is 37%. But then, Giannis is about 25%. So, I don’t know what to do with that statistic.
 

SteveF

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It's only a small part of the picture. You have to look at rebound opportunities, rebound rate, maybe even team rebound rate when the player is on the floor vs. off the floor, and how often the player is deferring on rebounds to other players.

You could be a player that consistently and effectively boxes out and get very few rebounds (and have few opportunities) but contribute significantly to your team's ability to secure defensive boards, for example.
 

DannyDarwinism

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Great news, and yeah, from what I recall, coming back too early from a calf strain risks aggravation or injuring the Achilles.
 

radsoxfan

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Great news. Given that he didn't seem able to put weight on it, would have expected more like a grade 2.

Smart and Pritchard both with the best possible outcomes from their injuries.

Smart probably has to be a little more careful since his injury has a risk of recurrence if he comes back too soon.
 

SoxinSeattle

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So glad the calf gave before the Achilles. Can we talk about those shoes? I'm not a big yellow guy but those shoes look amazing. GWS Marcus.
 

Van Everyman

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Great news. Given that he didn't seem able to put weight on it, would have expected more like a grade 2.

Smart and Pritchard both with the best possible outcomes from their injuries.

Smart probably has to be a little more careful since his injury has a risk of recurrence if he comes back too soon.
FWIW Shams (edit: quoting the team) is reporting 2-3 weeks – sounds like they’re going to be careful with this:

View: https://twitter.com/shamscharania/status/1355959126073991169?s=21
 

radsoxfan

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PP back soon, hopefully het gets a decent chunk of minutes.

Please no more Teague, it burns my eyes.
 

The Mort Report

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I know it depends on the opponent, but when Smart went down Brad went with the 2 big lineup, but with Timelord instead of TT. I have a feeling RW will be seeing the most significant bump in the short term
 

NomarsFool

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Hard to know if the RW/TL combination was because of the size of the Lakers, or if they will bust that out some more against other teams.
It’s really a shame that Romeo is out- this injury as well as PPs would have been a good chance to get an extended run. Seems like the Celtics have been stuck with playing 2 bigs or 2 smalls because of injuries.
 

osori

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Smart creates a lot of gravity on offense despite being an average 3P shooter: since everyone in the league knows he chucks a lot and can get hot from out there. Will be a tough series of games coming up with him missing. We are going to be providing the Jays with 0 spacing half the time.
 

NomarsFool

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Smart is also one of their best, if not their best passer. At one point he and JB had combined for most points/assist duos in the league.
 

Over Guapo Grande

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I light-hearted Smart related blurb from a Celts Q&A in The Athletic. The question is who would perform the second-best in Celebrity Jeopardy amongst the Celtics (assuming Jaylen wins). A portion of Jay King's response:

Of course, in any competition, it’s possible that Marcus Smart would find a way to emerge victorious. He might devise a way to steal the answers before the Jeopardy match. Or maybe he would just break everyone else’s buzzers so he’d be the only one able to chime in. Regardless of the circumstances, never count out Smart.
 

radsoxfan

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Good news, that looked bad.
Looks like 1-2 weeks.
View: https://twitter.com/wojespn/status/1355914668037066757

Source: Celts' Smart (calf) likely out 1-2 weeks
Well we know this didn't hold up.

I never fully bought the grade 1 injury talk, he couldn't walk on it (useful prognostic sign of at least grade 2) plus reports in the few days after said he had a lot of pain and swelling. Grade 1 injuries rarely have much swelling.

Sounds like at least a grade 2... more like a 4-6 week thing. Better than an Achilles for sure, but the initial reports probably were unfortunately a little too optimistic.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Well we know this didn't hold up.

I never fully bought the grade 1 injury talk, he couldn't walk on it (useful prognostic sign of at least grade 2) plus reports in the few days after said he had a lot of pain and swelling. Grade 1 injuries rarely have much swelling.

Sounds like at least a grade 2... more like a 4-6 week thing. Better than an Achilles for sure, but the initial reports probably were unfortunately a little too optimistic.
I don’t know what it meant but the slo-no replay of his calf muscle “popping” sure looked like more than a 1-2 week thing to me so this isn’t surprising. I had a Grade 1 once back when I played, there was no “pop” and no swelling......and that was a 10-12 day injury.
 

radsoxfan

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I don’t know what it meant but the slo-no replay of his calf muscle “popping” sure looked like more than a 1-2 week thing to me so this isn’t surprising. I had a Grade 1 once back when I played, there was no “pop” and no swelling......and that was a 10-12 day injury.
There are no hard and fast rules, and these injuries really are all a big spectrum rather than distinct cut-offs, but grade 1 in the 2-3 week range typically. I'm sure yours was grade 1.

Even playing it safe, not very typical for a grade 1 strain to put someone out more than a month. Nothing about the injury or the reports in the days after had me thinking this was going to be a 2 week injury.
 

Saints Rest

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There are no hard and fast rules, and these injuries really are all a big spectrum rather than distinct cut-offs, but grade 1 in the 2-3 week range typically. I'm sure yours was grade 1.

Even playing it safe, not very typical for a grade 1 strain to put someone out more than a month. Nothing about the injury or the reports in the days after had me thinking this was going to be a 2 week injury.
Rad, what was the pop in his calf that they so clearly showed on the replay?
 

radsoxfan

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Rad, what was the pop in his calf that they so clearly showed on the replay?
Certainly looked like a partial tear of his medial gastrocnemius muscle. I’m hesitant to make too much of a judgement on those videos as muscles are firing all the time and even cramps can look ugly to the naked eye. But that one was pretty convincing.

A grade 1 injury is a partial tear as well, I don’t think the general diagnosis is in question. I just think that the severity was probably underestimated by the radiologist/orthopedist (or perhaps the media didn’t get great info?).
 
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Jimbodandy

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I’m hesitant to make too much of a judgement on those videos as muscles are firing all the time and even cramps can look ugly to the naked eye.
You're factoring in a lot of data including time off already by Smarf. Makes perfect sense.

Still cracked me up thinking about the cramps. Most of the people in this forum probably know exactly what you mean. There's nothing like ending up on the floor, looking down at what appears to be an alien eating your calf from the inside.
 

radsoxfan

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We're over a month now, I'm hoping for soon after the All-Star break.

Looking at 6 weeks most likely... beyond a Grade 1 strain for sure, though we should be probably just be happy his Achilles didn't pop.
 

lovegtm

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Back tomorrow, so about 6 weeks. Hopefully that extra week from the All-Star break allowed it to fully heal.

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/31040268/boston-celtics-g-marcus-smart-feels-great-expects-play-vs-brooklyn-thursday
I would imagine a little less PP unless he's playing particularly well. Dont see much room for Teague and likely fewer bench wing minutes available.

Crunch time:
Kemba
Smart
Tatum
Jaylen
Theis/TL
We’ll still see a decent amount of Teague when Kemba skips back-to-backs. I also imagine that we’ll see a decent amount of Smart at the 3, unless Romeo comes back really strong or they acquire a wing.
 

MyDaughterLovesTomGordon

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Gotta say I’m irrationally worried that Marcus targeted this Nets game, regardless of whether he was fully ready to go or not.

I have the impression that he hates Kyrie.
 

lovegtm

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Gotta say I’m irrationally worried that Marcus targeted this Nets game, regardless of whether he was fully ready to go or not.

I have the impression that he hates Kyrie.
Do you? I remember that Kyrie lobbied hard for Smart to start in that 2018-19 season. A lot of the guys seem to be personally close with Kyrie still, with the exception of Jaylen.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Gotta say I’m irrationally worried that Marcus targeted this Nets game, regardless of whether he was fully ready to go or not.

I have the impression that he hates Kyrie.
Smart was one of the most vocal players to defend Kyrie when it was easy for everyone to point to him as the scapegoat after he departed.
 

lexrageorge

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I don't know how much Smart defended him as much as he tried to redirect the narrative to avoid any additional dissension in the ranks. Once Kyrie was gone, he stopped being relevant as far as the team goes. Didn't matter if he was popular or despised; there was a new season to focus on, and it's not great form for a guy with a reputation as being the team leader/glue guy bashing a former player. Protect The Shield has worked well for the players. And it benefits the team as well.

Better to let the announcers and anonymous sources associated with the team provide the real insight into what happened. And those folks have been consistent in saying that Kyrie was about 80-90% to blame for what happened with that team.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I don't know how much Smart defended him as much as he tried to redirect the narrative to avoid any additional dissension in the ranks. Once Kyrie was gone, he stopped being relevant as far as the team goes. Didn't matter if he was popular or despised; there was a new season to focus on, and it's not great form for a guy with a reputation as being the team leader/glue guy bashing a former player. Protect The Shield has worked well for the players. And it benefits the team as well.

Better to let the announcers and anonymous sources associated with the team provide the real insight into what happened. And those folks have been consistent in saying that Kyrie was about 80-90% to blame for what happened with that team.
Smart didn’t have to bash Kyrie......he also didn’t have to go out of his way to defend him and cite others for being responsible. He did.

These aren’t the actions taken by someone who hates another player who just departed that’s all I’m saying.
 

NomarsFool

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Could just be small sample size, but I thought this was interesting:

2019-2020 FGA 11.4 per game, 37.5%, 12.9 Pts/game
2020-2021 FGA 10.3 per game, 39.8%, 12.8 Pts/game

So, he's taking 1 shot per game fewer, hitting them at a little bit higher percentage, and scoring the same.

Again, could just be SSS and the impact of playing about 1 minute less on average this season. My perception is that he hasn't been killing us with awful shooting as often as last season.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Could just be small sample size, but I thought this was interesting:

2019-2020 FGA 11.4 per game, 37.5%, 12.9 Pts/game
2020-2021 FGA 10.3 per game, 39.8%, 12.8 Pts/game

So, he's taking 1 shot per game fewer, hitting them at a little bit higher percentage, and scoring the same.

Again, could just be SSS and the impact of playing about 1 minute less on average this season. My perception is that he hasn't been killing us with awful shooting as often as last season.

Getting to the line 1.1 more times per game too. Shooting at a worse % but still works out to 0.7 points per game. The other huge difference is .470 from 2 this year vs .411 last. .470 is easily his 2nd highest. The 3rd is .429. The 1st is .511.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Could just be small sample size, but I thought this was interesting:

2019-2020 FGA 11.4 per game, 37.5%, 12.9 Pts/game
2020-2021 FGA 10.3 per game, 39.8%, 12.8 Pts/game

So, he's taking 1 shot per game fewer, hitting them at a little bit higher percentage, and scoring the same.

Again, could just be SSS and the impact of playing about 1 minute less on average this season. My perception is that he hasn't been killing us with awful shooting as often as last season.
The human mind is playing tricks on us in that memory/recency bias of his horrific 4Q shooting is where our focus has been.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Since his return: 10 games, 30.8 mpg, 12.7 points, 4.3 assists, 3.3 rebounds, 1.0 steal on .409/.397/.839 shooting. 13/30, .433 from 2, 25/63 from 3.
Season shooting up to a more respectable .399/.346/.774. TS% of .542, the 2nd best of his career.
 

NomarsFool

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His 7-10 game against the Bucks certainly helped. If I'm doing my math correctly, that game increased his 3P% by 6 points.
 

slamminsammya

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His 7-10 game against the Bucks certainly helped. If I'm doing my math correctly, that game increased his 3P% by 6 points.
This is not correct. He is at 53 / 153 right now (.346) and before he was 46 / 143 (.322) .

EDIT: Unless you meant since his return, which makes way more sense given the context.