Nolan Arenado traded to St. Louis

jon abbey

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These are the Rockies’ biggest FA signings since Arenado made his first All-Star team in 2015, so much squandered money here.

Ian Desmond - $70M
Wade Davis - $52M
Gerardo Parra - $27.5M
Bryan Shaw - $27M
Jake McGee - $27M
Daniel Murphy - $24M
Mike Dunn - $19M
Jason Motte - $10M
 

Sox and Rocks

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These are the Rockies’ biggest FA signings since Arenado made his first All-Star team in 2015, so much squandered money here.

Ian Desmond - $70M
Wade Davis - $52M
Gerardo Parra - $27.5M
Bryan Shaw - $27M
Jake McGee - $27M
Daniel Murphy - $24M
Mike Dunn - $19M
Jason Motte - $10M
Any other GM would have been fired by now, but Bridich has Monfort's support. There's not a worse GM/owner combo in MLB, and perhaps not in all of professional sports.
 

grimshaw

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The Rockies basically moved someone without a dance partner for salary relief. Odds are pretty high the Rockies will play the role of the Blue Jays circa early 2000's with two juggernauts ahead of them. There's just no reason to have a superstar wasting his prime on a team that isn't going to win, other than selling some tickets. The Rockies don't have buckets of money to just reload like the Sox can.

There is a very high chance of zero surplus value on the deal (and a decent chance it will be a terrible contract), so the return was always going to be underwhelming. What I think screws the Rockies long term is cementing the fact to fans they won't be competing and making it very difficult to retain Story or sign any big name players. That, and other than Gomber, it seems like they are just filling some ranks with some up and down guys and lottery tickets. But at least they have a shot to rebuild now that the reset button has been hit rather than stay in mediocrity.

They need to move their franchise IMO. Denver should not be a city where major league baseball is played. Aside from the home/road split production issues they are playing 72 of their games in a different time zone. The Red Sox comparatively play 24 in a typical season.
 
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sean1562

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They have decent attendance numbers right? When I lived in Denver, most of the people at games seemed like they were rooting for the opposing team or just going to the ballpark because it was cheap and after work.
 

Comfortably Lomb

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They need to move their franchise IMO. Denver should not be a city where major league baseball is played. Aside from the home/road split production issues they are playing 72 of their games in a different time zone. The Red Sox comparatively play 24 in a typical season.
The Rockies were in the top 10 in attendance 2017-19, 6th in 2019. They have a nice park and fans show up. There should be a baseball team there. Maybe it shouldn't be run by dummies though.
 

allmanbro

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The whole game of building a good team now is to find some way to do something different than all the other teams, so that you are not competing directly for exactly the same kinds of talent, and the players you get are undervalued relative to the benefit they give you. So, trying to play at altitude is a challenge, but there's also a sense in which it is a structural advantage. There will always be something different about playing there. It seems like someone out there could figure out how to leverage that. If you got the right people in place, it's easy to see them make an A's/Rays style run.

Although, I guess if the point is "a good baseball ops department could make them a winning team", that's not shocking. But the right sort of people would see this as that kind of challenge.
 

fairlee76

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jp
The Rockies were in the top 10 in attendance 2017-19, 6th in 2019. They have a nice park and fans show up. There should be a baseball team there. Maybe it shouldn't be run by dummies though.
Building on what @sean1562 said, the few games I have been to since moving to Denver have been games against the Red Sox, Phillies, Dodgers, and, I think, the Mets. In each case there appeared to be about a 50-50 split between Rockies fans and opposing fans. Also agree that it seems plausible that a lot of the fans (like me in most cases) worked/live downtown and just said "sure, I'll meet you for a game after work" rather than being fans of the Rockies. The sheer volume of apartment buildings catering to 20somethings from "away" is staggering in the 2 mile radius around Coors Field.

It is a great place to watch a game. Was definitely a staple when I had friends visit given the easy access to tickets and the pre-game brewery hopping options. Upper deck sunset views are also pretty amazing.
 

Kliq

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I believe Denver is also a hot place to go for coastal Ex-Pats so it would surprise me if teams from the Northeast had a lot of fans in attendance.
 

kelpapa

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Building on what @sean1562 said, the few games I have been to since moving to Denver have been games against the Red Sox, Phillies, Dodgers, and, I think, the Mets. In each case there appeared to be about a 50-50 split between Rockies fans and opposing fans. Also agree that it seems plausible that a lot of the fans (like me in most cases) worked/live downtown and just said "sure, I'll meet you for a game after work" rather than being fans of the Rockies. The sheer volume of apartment buildings catering to 20somethings from "away" is staggering in the 2 mile radius around Coors Field.

It is a great place to watch a game. Was definitely a staple when I had friends visit given the easy access to tickets and the pre-game brewery hopping options. Upper deck sunset views are also pretty amazing.
I would say that Dodgers games sell out, and most people are in dodger gear.
 

Philip Jeff Frye

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What happened to all the mountain time zone folk who would RV to the games? There were all kinds of stories back in their early years about people driving there from Utah or Nebraska or Montana or wherever, making a big trip out of it and excited to have a team to call their own. Did the novelty wear off?

Denver is a big, growing metropolis with a large catchment area. It's a nice stadium in a nice part of town. There's no reason a well run club couldn't succeed there.
 

grimshaw

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The whole game of building a good team now is to find some way to do something different than all the other teams, so that you are not competing directly for exactly the same kinds of talent, and the players you get are undervalued relative to the benefit they give you. So, trying to play at altitude is a challenge, but there's also a sense in which it is a structural advantage. There will always be something different about playing there. It seems like someone out there could figure out how to leverage that. If you got the right people in place, it's easy to see them make an A's/Rays style run.

Although, I guess if the point is "a good baseball ops department could make them a winning team", that's not shocking. But the right sort of people would see this as that kind of challenge.
This is more of where I was off base. I probably shouldn't have gone that route of relocation. I love Denver. The fans seem great. It's a gorgeous stadium and attendance isn't a problem. I just think the disadvantage the Rockies have from their environment is substantially worse than any other team and it runs deeper than below average management.

FWIW I do think they have done a better job of getting a rotation together lately. Freeland, Marquez and Gray are keepers who have come up through the system and acclimated well. When free agent starters don't want to sign up to have their brains beaten in 16 starts a year, they need to consistently win the development game. That's not easy.
 
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fairlee76

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jp
I believe Denver is also a hot place to go for coastal Ex-Pats so it would surprise me if teams from the Northeast had a lot of fans in attendance.
Would not surprise you, yeah? Denver is definitely an insanely hot spot as far as coastal (and TX) relocations go. Just ask all the "NATIVES." They'll tell ya all about it! And here I was thinking thinking Mainers (my home state) were provincial.

I would say that Dodgers games sell out, and most people are in dodger gear.
Yeah, now that I think about it, that was basically a Dodgers home game. Being a Boston sports fan, that was surprising. Think the closest comp in Boston was when the Lakers or Yankees came to town and that is 1/3 opposing fans, maximum, I think?
 

Sox and Rocks

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Building on what @sean1562 said, the few games I have been to since moving to Denver have been games against the Red Sox, Phillies, Dodgers, and, I think, the Mets. In each case there appeared to be about a 50-50 split between Rockies fans and opposing fans. Also agree that it seems plausible that a lot of the fans (like me in most cases) worked/live downtown and just said "sure, I'll meet you for a game after work" rather than being fans of the Rockies. The sheer volume of apartment buildings catering to 20somethings from "away" is staggering in the 2 mile radius around Coors Field.

It is a great place to watch a game. Was definitely a staple when I had friends visit given the easy access to tickets and the pre-game brewery hopping options. Upper deck sunset views are also pretty amazing.
Born and raised in Colorado, I've been a Rockies fan (and Sox) all my life. I was at the first ever game with 80,000 people and EY homering just over the fence in the first ever home at bat. I've never heard a louder stadium for baseball than that moment. I was also at the first ever game at Coors. My dad and I shared season tickets and went to about 20 games a year until 1999, when I left for college. The point being, I've seen the many changes in the franchise and fan base first hand.

Yes, now Coors Field is basically a cool bar with a high cover charge (but cheap tickets compared to the rest of MLB) and overpriced drinks. It's a place to hang out and soak in the nice summer evenings. It's a place to drink. It's a nice, comfortable stadium with many concessions and wide concourses. And as you note, there are tons of places to drink before and after the game. But because of all of this, and because of how poorly the franchise has been run, the die hard fans, like me and my dad, have been replaced by casual fans who are more interested in the experience than the actual game. Dick (aptly named) Monfort, the owner, knows this and caters to it. He's more interested in making money off attendance and concessions than in the actual product. Hell, he ripped out the upper deck in right a few years ago and put in a party deck rather than invest in the team.

He's also probably the poorest owner, in terms of net wealth, in MLB. He runs it like a business to make money every year rather than invest in the actual franchise itself and build the value over time. He's also loyal to a fault and, in particular, puts up with bad GMs. They've never won a division title, and yet they've only had 3 GMs in almost 30 years. Its quite frustrating for those of us who actually root for the team.
 

Sox and Rocks

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What happened to all the mountain time zone folk who would RV to the games? There were all kinds of stories back in their early years about people driving there from Utah or Nebraska or Montana or wherever, making a big trip out of it and excited to have a team to call their own. Did the novelty wear off?

Denver is a big, growing metropolis with a large catchment area. It's a nice stadium in a nice part of town. There's no reason a well run club couldn't succeed there.
That was back when it seemed like the baseball product actually mattered. But over time, the owner has and continues to cater more and more to the ballpark experience than the product. Those fans have understandably grown frustrated and stopped coming to a large extent, but because of the change in focus, their (and my) declining support doesn't matter. The owner makes money off beer, food, and tickets.
 

Sox and Rocks

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Apr 16, 2013
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The Rockies basically moved someone without a dance partner for salary relief. Odds are pretty high the Rockies will play the role of the Blue Jays circa early 2000's with two juggernauts ahead of them. There's just no reason to have a superstar wasting his prime on a team that isn't going to win, other than selling some tickets. The Rockies don't have buckets of money to just reload like the Sox can.

There is a very high chance of zero surplus value on the deal (and a decent chance it will be a terrible contract), so the return was always going to be underwhelming. What I think screws the Rockies long term is cementing the fact to fans they won't be competing and making it very difficult to retain Story or sign any big name players. That, and other than Gomber, it seems like they are just filling some ranks with some up and down guys and lottery tickets. But at least they have a shot to rebuild now that the reset button has been hit rather than stay in mediocrity.

They need to move their franchise IMO. Denver should not be a city where major league baseball is played. Aside from the home/road split production issues they are playing 72 of their games in a different time zone. The Red Sox comparatively play 24 in a typical season.
You're right that baseball in Denver creates many challenges. But the owner is born and raised local who loves owning the team. He'll never sell or move because he makes money, and the attendance because of the experience will always keep them solvent. But he also doesn't seem to care about trying to create an intelligent, analytical approach to maximizing the potential advantages of altitude while minimizing the disadvantages (I previously posted a link in this thread about how they've actually gone away from what little analytics they embraced). He also mettles (one example: he personally drafted Greg Reynolds over his GM's desire to take Evan Longoria or Clayton Kershaw). He has no clue about actual baseball. He's basically the poor (relatively speaking) Dan Snyder of MLB. It's all about money, and the combination of all of these factors make it hard, if not impossible, for them to ever contend on a regular basis.
 

allmanbro

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You're right that baseball in Denver creates many challenges. But the owner is born and raised local who loves owning the team. He'll never sell or move because he makes money, and the attendance because of the experience will always keep them solvent. But he also doesn't seem to care about trying to create an intelligent, analytical approach to maximizing the potential advantages of altitude while minimizing the disadvantages (I previously posted a link in this thread about how they've actually gone away from what little analytics they embraced). He also mettles (one example: he personally drafted Greg Reynolds over his GM's desire to take Evan Longoria or Clayton Kershaw). He has no clue about actual baseball. He's basically the poor (relatively speaking) Dan Snyder of MLB. It's all about money, and the combination of all of these factors make it hard, if not impossible, for them to ever contend on a regular basis.
Wow, that's depressing.

So what do you do to build a good team up there? There must be good articles on this, but I can't find them, so what follows is made up.

Pitching: everyone wants high spin rate and high whiff rate guys these days, maybe Colorado shouldn't. Spin doesn't translate to movement the same way, and whiffs might be harder to get. So maybe you want pitch-to-contact guys who can minimize hard contact and get ground balls/soft line drives. That seems like an exploitable difference from the rest of the league.

Defense: If your strategy is pitch to contact, you probably value defense more than other teams. I don't know if you can say more specific than that - is there any evidence visiting runners are slower because they get winded at altitude? If so, maybe outfield arms are valuable, or maybe you don't need as slick of a glove in the IF as long as they knock it down and make the throw over?

Hitting: I assume you want pretty extreme flyball hitters. Unfortunately, so does everyone else at the moment, so you have to hope the league deadens the balls a bit (as it should), and the rest of the league moves away from the fly ball revolution, leaving the Rockies uniquely interested in those guys. If that doesn't happen, maybe it's just a matter of getting guys with good statcast numbers that have failed to make it click, and hope that sheer exit velocity at that altitude can be enough to overcome other problems. Maybe batter K rates in other stadiums are less of a problem there for the same reason pitcher whiff rates would be? Maybe you give high power/high whiff guys like Wily Mo Pena, Franmil Reyes, Franchy Cordero, and so on a chance.

In any case, there has to be something to be mined in the statcast/pitchfx data . . .

Edit: maybe you can also steal bases more easily if the opposing catcher is tired out?
 
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fairlee76

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Oct 9, 2005
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jp
Born and raised in Colorado, I've been a Rockies fan (and Sox) all my life. I was at the first ever game with 80,000 people and EY homering just over the fence in the first ever home at bat. I've never heard a louder stadium for baseball than that moment. I was also at the first ever game at Coors. My dad and I shared season tickets and went to about 20 games a year until 1999, when I left for college. The point being, I've seen the many changes in the franchise and fan base first hand.

Yes, now Coors Field is basically a cool bar with a high cover charge (but cheap tickets compared to the rest of MLB) and overpriced drinks. It's a place to hang out and soak in the nice summer evenings. It's a place to drink. It's a nice, comfortable stadium with many concessions and wide concourses. And as you note, there are tons of places to drink before and after the game. But because of all of this, and because of how poorly the franchise has been run, the die hard fans, like me and my dad, have been replaced by casual fans who are more interested in the experience than the actual game. Dick (aptly named) Monfort, the owner, knows this and caters to it. He's more interested in making money off attendance and concessions than in the actual product. Hell, he ripped out the upper deck in right a few years ago and put in a party deck rather than invest in the team.

He's also probably the poorest owner, in terms of net wealth, in MLB. He runs it like a business to make money every year rather than invest in the actual franchise itself and build the value over time. He's also loyal to a fault and, in particular, puts up with bad GMs. They've never won a division title, and yet they've only had 3 GMs in almost 30 years. Its quite frustrating for those of us who actually root for the team.
Thanks for this history and I feel for you.

Even as a casual fan, the party deck strikes me as pretty damn goofy. Let's pay $XX for a ticket so we can play cornhole and watch the game on TV! Of course, the few times I have been up there, it has been absolutely packed.
 

sean1562

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The tickets are only $15 and come with a $6 beer/food credit. But yea, virtually impossible to actually watch the game unless you get there earlier and just hug the railing with all of your friends.
 

Sox and Rocks

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Wow, that's depressing.

So what do you do to build a good team up there? There must be good articles on this, but I can't find them, so what follows is made up.

Pitching: everyone wants high spin rate and high whiff rate guys these days, maybe Colorado shouldn't. Spin doesn't translate to movement the same way, and whiffs might be harder to get. So maybe you want pitch-to-contact guys who can minimize hard contact and get ground balls/soft line drives. That seems like an exploitable difference from the rest of the league.

Defense: If your strategy is pitch to contact, you probably value defense more than other teams. I don't know if you can say more specific than that - is there any evidence visiting runners are slower because they get winded at altitude? If so, maybe outfield arms are valuable, or maybe you don't need as slick of a glove in the IF as long as they knock it down and make the throw over?

Hitting: I assume you want pretty extreme flyball hitters. Unfortunately, so does everyone else at the moment, so you have to hope the league deadens the balls a bit (as it should), and the rest of the league moves away from the fly ball revolution, leaving the Rockies uniquely interested in those guys. If that doesn't happen, maybe it's just a matter of getting guys with good statcast numbers that have failed to make it click, and hope that sheer exit velocity at that altitude can be enough to overcome other problems. Maybe batter K rates in other stadiums are less of a problem there for the same reason pitcher whiff rates would be? Maybe you give high power/high whiff guys like Wily Mo Pena, Franmil Reyes, Franchy Cordero, and so on a chance.

In any case, there has to be something to be mined in the statcast/pitchfx data . . .

Edit: maybe you can also steal bases more easily if the opposing catcher is tired out?
Good question, and you provide several good theories yourself. For a while they tried groundball pitchers with the idea of preventing not only homeruns but extra base hits. Because of the altitude, the outfield was made intentionally large, and this leads to extra doubles and triples, too. The experiment largely failed, but that was at a time when other teams were trying something similar, and the personnel of the pitching staff was, of course, poor. In other words, there wasn't an untapped market to exploit, but as you note, there probably is now. Outfield defense should be a premium, which makes moves like Ian Desmond and the recent non-tender of David Dahl all the more puzzling. They also tried the speed approach in the early 2000's, but again, other teams, were, too, so it wasn't an untapped market then.

I think one of the easiest moves they can make is using the opener concept to alleviate innings on the starters (the rotation is actually good) and, if done well, the bullpen, too. The bullpen has been the biggest weakness of late, and given the overall scoring, they are used heavily (too heavily) at home, and. They could use it differently with 4 starters and 2 openers, and intermix the openers with the starters (something like starter, starter, opener, starter, starter, opener), and in doing so, prioritize the hybrid pitchers that might be a market inefficiency to exploit.