Analysis of Celtics Games (2020-2021)

Light-Tower-Power

ask me about My Pillow
SoSH Member
Jun 14, 2013
15,968
Nashua, NH
I wanted to be in the house for the first game when fans were allowed back, but I don't know if I want to pay to watch this team in person right now.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
Nesmith taking 0 shots in a single game is far less a Nesmith problem. It's a problem with the structure of the team's offense, which is the fault of either Tatum and Brown and/or Coach Brad. Nesmith was doing OK in the games running up to the one against Dallas. Seems like Tatum doesn't like someone else taking shots, period.
This goes back to what I’ve been saying for awhile that it’s a trust issue with the players. Ainge reiterated this today. If the star players don’t trust their teammates it isn’t the star players who are going to be replaced. Either way you cannot be so passive that you are on a floor for 21 min without attempting a single shot. You have to find a way to be productive on that end of the floor to some degree. This trade deadline is going to be as interesting a one as we’ve seen in awhile. Ainge cannot sit on his hands as that isn’t likely what Wyc wants.
 
Last edited:

128

Member
SoSH Member
May 4, 2019
10,024
Nesmith taking 0 shots in a single game is far less a Nesmith problem. It's a problem with the structure of the team's offense, which is the fault of either Tatum and Brown and/or Coach Brad. Nesmith was doing OK in the games running up to the one against Dallas. Seems like Tatum doesn't like someone else taking shots, period.
I've always found Tatum reluctant to feed Time Lord, while Smart and, now, Pritchard seem to jump at every opportunity to do so.
 

Auger34

used to be tbb
SoSH Member
Apr 23, 2010
9,303
I've always found Tatum reluctant to feed Time Lord, while Smart and, now, Pritchard seem to jump at every opportunity to do so.
Maybe it’s because he can be so deliberate or because he tends to pound the ball to the ground in one spot but it does seem like Tatum is much more of a ball stopper than Brown.
Which is a problem because Tatum is a better passer/playmaker than Jaylen is.
It really seems like a a matter of just not wanting to pass with Jayson. It’s up to Brad and the coaching staff to continually pound into his head that he needs to play make for others and keep the ball moving instead of letting everyone else stand still while he goes 1 on 1 (or 1 on 2).
You would think JT would understand this after he witnessed the Kyrie Show a couple of years ago...
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
I've always found Tatum reluctant to feed Time Lord, while Smart and, now, Pritchard seem to jump at every opportunity to do so.
Tatum has brought his Assist numbers from 2.1 to 3.0 to 4.5 this year so he’s setting up somebody. There has to be an Advanced Stat somewhere to show us who.

Was curious so looked at Jaylen and he’s gone from 1.4 to 2.1 to 3.9 as well. They aren’t complete black holes.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 24, 2002
48,214
Tatum has brought his Assist numbers from 2.1 to 3.0 to 4.5 this year so he’s setting up somebody. There has to be an Advanced Stat somewhere to show us who.

Was curious so looked at Jaylen and he’s gone from 1.4 to 2.1 to 3.9 as well. They aren’t complete black holes.
Tatum and Brown Frequency of passes to teammates for 2020-2021.

Tatum:
39154

Brown:


39155
 

128

Member
SoSH Member
May 4, 2019
10,024
Tatum has brought his Assist numbers from 2.1 to 3.0 to 4.5 this year so he’s setting up somebody. There has to be an Advanced Stat somewhere to show us who.

Was curious so looked at Jaylen and he’s gone from 1.4 to 2.1 to 3.9 as well. They aren’t complete black holes.
They're both gifted passers. My biggest critique of Tatum is that he won't make the simple pass that keeps the ball moving and can get the defense off-balance.

Not every good pass becomes an assist. Just check out the videos of the Jazz's fantastic ball movement this season.
 
Last edited:

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
34,464
Tatum has brought his Assist numbers from 2.1 to 3.0 to 4.5 this year so he’s setting up somebody. There has to be an Advanced Stat somewhere to show us who.

Was curious so looked at Jaylen and he’s gone from 1.4 to 2.1 to 3.9 as well. They aren’t complete black holes.
Tatum's AST% is 21%, he's definitely facilitating more.
In clutch situations it drops to 16%

Jaylen... 20.2%, drops in Clutch time to..... 5.6%

Jaylen is really the guy just going full black hole in the clutch.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
Tatum's AST% is 21%, he's definitely facilitating more.
In clutch situations it drops to 16%

Jaylen... 20.2%, drops in Clutch time to..... 5.6%

Jaylen is really the guy just going full black hole in the clutch.
If you or anyone has time can you compare them to other end of game iso guys like Doncic, Lillard, Beal, etc. If not I can do it late tonight. Tatums AST% in clutch seems higher than a half and Jaylens lower. Interesting if anything
 

joe dokes

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
30,243
They're both gifted passers. My biggest critique of Tatum is that he won't make the simple pass that keeps the ball moving and can get the defense off-balance.

Not every good pass becomes an assist. Just check out the videos of the Jazz's fantastic ball movement this season.
Right. It's almost like Tatum *only* passes when it will lead directly to a bucket.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
34,464
If you or anyone has time can you compare them to other end of game iso guys like Doncic, Lillard, Beal, etc. If not I can do it late tonight. Tatums AST% in clutch seems higher than a half and Jaylens lower. Interesting if anything
I would guess Tatum's number is pretty good and Brown's is bad as well.

Ok, quick eyeball....
86 players have 10+ GP with a USG of 15% or higher in clutch situations per nba.com.
Tatum is 38th in AST% among them. ( Luka is 2nd, Lillard is 4th, Beal is 52nd)
Jaylen in 71st. The worst guys I would consider "stars" are Booker (I actually don't consider him a star, but he's the #1 option there at least) at 61st and Durant at 59th (and Durant makes up for it with a 71% TS, good for top 10, Jaylen is 56th).
https://www.nba.com/stats/players/clutch-advanced/?sort=AST_PCT&dir=-1&Season=2020-21&SeasonType=Regular Season&CF=USG_PCT*GE*15:GP*GE*10
 

mcpickl

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 23, 2007
4,546
Okay you're just a troll. Can't take you seriously. You asked me how I could say only one forward was playing.
Yeah bud, I replied to your post that said this

"If Theis was hurt now and not Smart you would probably be shitting on the 15 million dollar wing and 7 foot 3rd string stiff. And it is almost guaranteed at some point Smart will be back and This will be out. There is only one forward playi9ng most of the time. You can't play that bum on the weakest big on the other team, like you can Semi or Nesmith or Pritchard.

It's all about Kemba. He needs to play well for the team to have a chance
. "

I have no idea what you mean when you say there is only one forward playing most of the time. Still don't. Most normal teams have 2-3 forwards, or wings, playing at all times. I have no idea who the 15 million dollar wing is you're talking about. No idea who that bum you can't play on the weakest big on the other team is you're talking about. No idea how you think you could play Pritchard on the weakest big on the other team. No clue man. Can you make out what you meant? Honestly, for such a short post it is all over the place.

Also in calling me a troll, you used one quote from me, and one quote from someone else? What's up?
 

Imbricus

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 26, 2017
4,813
An observation on the compressed schedule this year: At first, I assumed it would favor teams that had a lot of young players who could withstand the more frequent back to backs. Now I'm wondering if that thinking is backwards, and that the schedule favors more veteran teams, because they don't need the practices as much and can figure things out on the fly. I think the Celtics, with all their very young players, have been especially hurt by the lack of practice time.
 

Jimbodandy

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 31, 2006
11,406
around the way
An observation on the compressed schedule this year: At first, I assumed it would favor teams that had a lot of young players who could withstand the more frequent back to backs. Now I'm wondering if that thinking is backwards, and that the schedule favors more veteran teams, because they don't need the practices as much and can figure things out on the fly. I think the Celtics, with all their very young players, have been especially hurt by the lack of practice time.
I believe this wholeheartedly. I also think that teams that went deep in the playoffs have mental fatigue now. The combination is not good.
 

reggiecleveland

sublime
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Mar 5, 2004
27,958
Saskatoon Canada
An observation on the compressed schedule this year: At first, I assumed it would favor teams that had a lot of young players who could withstand the more frequent back to backs. Now I'm wondering if that thinking is backwards, and that the schedule favors more veteran teams, because they don't need the practices as much and can figure things out on the fly. I think the Celtics, with all their very young players, have been especially hurt by the lack of practice time.
I never bought that it favoured young teams. Vets are probably better equipped with what seems like an extended road trip away from family too.
 

slamminsammya

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2006
9,193
San Francisco
We have pages of people moaning about the offense and obviously it has problems and it is ugly but... adjusting for opponent defense they are at 113.2 ORTG. Last season was 114.0. They are 13th in the league and last year they were 5th, but the league as a whole has a lot more good offensive teams. They really aren't that far off last year's offense efficiency wise. I think we are focused on it because its easier to pinpoint dysfunction, but the far more significant dropoff both to my eyes and statistically has been the defense. Last year - 108.2 (5th) and this year 112.7 (14th).

I mean obviously I'd rather they play better offense in crunch time and I wish the Jays were less selfish and yadda yadda yadda. But the biggest absolute dropoff has been the defense (14th in the league now).
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 26, 2005
30,504
I mean obviously I'd rather they play better offense in crunch time and I wish the Jays were less selfish and yadda yadda yadda. But the biggest absolute dropoff has been the defense (14th in the league now).
The defensive issues are likely related in part to a lack of practice time but also in part to the roster construction, particularly with MS out.
 

peritas

New Member
Nov 9, 2015
31
Let’s not forget where the 76ers ended up last Summer. I believe that patience is the best approach for the Celtics.
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
47,094
Let’s not forget where the 76ers ended up last Summer. I believe that patience is the best approach for the Celtics.
Patience with the Jay's, sure. Patience with the roster construction? No. Danny has a ton of work to do on that front. This team will get better but they are missing a piece or two to get to true contention level now that Philly is improved and the Nets are looking like an offensive juggernaut who will probably add a depth piece or two during buyout season.

For now, we need to just continue to develop the young guys to see what we have.
 

lexrageorge

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2007
18,100
Patience with the Jay's, sure. Patience with the roster construction? No. Danny has a ton of work to do on that front. This team will get better but they are missing a piece or two to get to true contention level now that Philly is improved and the Nets are looking like an offensive juggernaut who will probably add a depth piece or two during buyout season.

For now, we need to just continue to develop the young guys to see what we have.
To mean, patience means not doing anything really stupid to try to quick fix for this season. No need to trade Pritchard for Gallinari, for example. No need to dump Tatum or Brown for a bunch of declining veterans and low first round draft picks. Trading Smart would be dumb.

Probably want to keep Nesmith; he's had little opportunity and some extenuating circumstances, and probably wouldn't fetch very much either. But I'm not going to get too broken up if he's part of a bigger trade that fetches back an upgrade.

Patience also means not overpaying for an upgrade at the deadline; there will be tons of player movement this coming offseason, and it's hard to see how anyone that would be available in the next 4 weeks is going to allow the Celtics to get past the Nets or 76'ers.

But the rest of the roster are JAGs or worse, and should be treated as such when considering trades (Kemba is his own special case, but likely isn't going anywhere anyway). There's no reason, IMO, to be patient with GWilliams or Semi or Edwards or even Langford. None of them are likely to turn into anything other than trade fodder, and probably will not be around after their current contracts expire. Maybe R Williams is an exception, but he could be an asset that fetches a better player in return as part of a bigger deal. Ainge really needs to be aggressive this summer.
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
47,094
To mean, patience means not doing anything really stupid to try to quick fix for this season. No need to trade Pritchard for Gallinari, for example. No need to dump Tatum or Brown for a bunch of declining veterans and low first round draft picks. Trading Smart would be dumb.

Probably want to keep Nesmith; he's had little opportunity and some extenuating circumstances, and probably wouldn't fetch very much either. But I'm not going to get too broken up if he's part of a bigger trade that fetches back an upgrade.

Patience also means not overpaying for an upgrade at the deadline; there will be tons of player movement this coming offseason, and it's hard to see how anyone that would be available in the next 4 weeks is going to allow the Celtics to get past the Nets or 76'ers.

But the rest of the roster are JAGs or worse, and should be treated as such when considering trades (Kemba is his own special case, but likely isn't going anywhere anyway). There's no reason, IMO, to be patient with GWilliams or Semi or Edwards or even Langford. None of them are likely to turn into anything other than trade fodder, and probably will not be around after their current contracts expire. Maybe R Williams is an exception, but he could be an asset that fetches a better player in return as part of a bigger deal. Ainge really needs to be aggressive this summer.
Agree with all of this. But I also expect Ainge to poke around for incremental improvements this trade deadline that can help the team going forward. Ainge and Wyc pretty much shot down any Barnes type move this week but maybe we can find a diamond in the rough this deadline who can be part of the rotation next year. Guys like PP, Nesmith, and TL aren't untradeable to me but I'm highly unlikely to move them. Anyone else (aside from the Jay's and Marcus) can go. I also wouldn't trade the 2021 draft pick unless we're getting a surefire top 7-8 rotation piece in return.
 

Deathofthebambino

Drive Carefully
SoSH Member
Apr 12, 2005
41,948
Tatum's AST% is 21%, he's definitely facilitating more.
In clutch situations it drops to 16%

Jaylen... 20.2%, drops in Clutch time to..... 5.6%

Jaylen is really the guy just going full black hole in the clutch.
I don't know how fair that is though. In clutch time, the ball starts in Tatum's hands. He's either going to take a shot, or pass it. But if he's passing it to Jaylen, unless Jaylen gives it back to Tatum, Jaylen is likely going to be the one taking the shot. I'll bet a not insignificant number of Tatum's assists in clutch time are being scored by Jaylen. There just aren't going to be enough opportunities in clutch time for Jaylen to pass as there are for Tatum, because Jaylen isn't running the point.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
34,464
I don't know how fair that is though. In clutch time, the ball starts in Tatum's hands. He's either going to take a shot, or pass it. But if he's passing it to Jaylen, unless Jaylen gives it back to Tatum, Jaylen is likely going to be the one taking the shot. I'll bet a not insignificant number of Tatum's assists in clutch time are being scored by Jaylen. There just aren't going to be enough opportunities in clutch time for Jaylen to pass as there are for Tatum, because Jaylen isn't running the point.
I don't think that's close to all of it....
5 Celtics have a USG over 15 in the clutch..
Marcus Smart- AST% 28.6
Kemba Waler- AST%- 17.6
Jayson Tatum- AST%- 16.1
Daniel Theis- AST% 6.5
Jaylen Brown-AST% 5.6
 

RorschachsMask

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 23, 2011
5,205
Lynn
I posted this elsewhere, but will share it here as well. I’m okay with Jaylen taking his lumps in these situations, as it will only help him. This is just strictly a numbers look at how they’re performing late in games.

The Jays move the ball pretty well most of the game, but they both hold on to the ball much more in clutch situations (game within 5 points with 5 minutes left).

Tatum’s assist rate for the season is 21%, in clutch situations it drops to just over 16%. 32% usage and a 58% TS in those situations. He has a -1.1 net rating in them as well, which makes sense because the team sucks in the clutch.

Jaylens assist rate for the season is 20.2%, in clutch situations it drops to 5.6%. His usage drops to 23%, and his TS is at 51%in those situations. Has a -10.1 net rating in them, as well. So yes the people are right when they say that he doesn’t have the ball as much late in games, but he’s also struggled terribly in those situations, and doesn’t get anyone else involved. He had a 59% TS last year in clutch times, so he’s capable of better, but part of it is more defensive attention.

Late in games when defenses key in on the guy with the ball, Jaylen really struggles to get his shot off, and doesn’t really get good looks. I won’t even get into Kembas numbers, but just split Jaylens clutch situation splits almost in half, and that will give you an idea.

They only have one guy who can get good looks at the basket late in games, but he settles for far too many bad shots himself. I don’t really know what they can do to fix their issues in these situations, other than moving the ball more and hitting shots. But Jaylen has been a real issue in the clutch, your 2nd best player has to be much better than that.
 
Last edited:

wade boggs chicken dinner

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 26, 2005
30,504

peritas

New Member
Nov 9, 2015
31
I think Brad has improved the rotation very recently. (Perhaps he feels the heat.)

I like the idea suggested above of Kemba leading the second unit. Williams looks like he is getting really good pretty fast. Adding Smart to the rotation will really help this team. I would play 8 to 9 deep for the next few games.
 

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
20,124
Santa Monica
I think Brad has improved the rotation very recently. (Perhaps he feels the heat.)

I like the idea suggested above of Kemba leading the second unit. Williams looks like he is getting really good pretty fast. Adding Smart to the rotation will really help this team. I would play 8 to 9 deep for the next few games.
Making Kemba ball-dominant and leading the 2nd unit is probably the best way to get the most out of him. BUT Brad needs to go deeper into his bench and give the Jays some time off during COVID season.

Teague is a perfect example of a guy we had all written off (myself incl), that can still offer some positive regular-season minutes. Romeo when he comes back, Nesmith, Semi and Grant will all need to play this season. The schedule is too compressed/intense to only go 8/9 deep. The playoffs will be the time to shorten the rotation to 8.
 

pjheff

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 4, 2003
1,302
Making Kemba ball-dominant and leading the 2nd unit is probably the best way to get the most out of him. BUT Brad needs to go deeper into his bench and give the Jays some time off during COVID season.
Which currently roster players do you think would best complement Walker in a Kemba and the bench lineup?
 

bigq

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
11,088
I think Brad has improved the rotation very recently. (Perhaps he feels the heat.)

I like the idea suggested above of Kemba leading the second unit. Williams looks like he is getting really good pretty fast. Adding Smart to the rotation will really help this team. I would play 8 to 9 deep for the next few games.
Yeah Coach Brad was in playoff mode last night knowing the team needed a W playing with a short rotation of 8 players. Nesmith and Green got a few minutes but the bulk of the bench minutes went to TL, Teague and PP.

Semi, GWill, Edwards, Waters and Fall all with DNP CD.

Given the team’s poor depth and the closeness of the game throughout it was the right approach.

Stevens generally takes a long view of the regular season and it was nice to see him in win now mode last night.

I wouldn’t mind seeing more 8 man depth games going forward but that is going to be tough particularly on nights when Kemba is getting a rest. Having Smart back after the all star break will help.
 

TripleOT

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 4, 2007
7,758
Hot take: Despite the troubles so far this season, I’m not overly concerned, and I think this team can again go deep in the playoffs.

Teams often have bad stretches. This team’s core got within a couple of plays from the NBA Finals, and their two star wings are among the most battle tested young players in the recent history of the league.

Brooklyn looks like its going to be an extremely difficult playoff out, but all three of their star player have epic playoff flameouts on their resumes. Philly of course has underperformed every playoffs since Embiid joined them.

I’d feel a lot more confident if Ainge can add a veteran piece or two to beef up the back of their playoff rotation, but even as presently constituted, Boston is going to be a difficult playoff out if everyone is relatively healthy.

Last night, when Indy jumped out to a huge early lead, I started to doubt this team, before I remembered how often teams run out to hot starts when they don’t miss shots, and then the other team finds its bearings and get back into the game.

It’s the same way with play during the season. Some teams struggle, but get it together late and kill in the playoffs, like Miami. Some teams win 75% of their games and are exposed in the playoffs, like the Bucks.

In a playoff format, where Kemba can play every game rested, and when the tram can lock in their defensive and offensive schemes against a certain opponent, I feel much better about the Celtics chances than in a random February second night of a B2B. would it be night for a talented team like the Celtics to crush lesser opponents all the time, like the KG and Bird teams did? Of course, but this team doesn’t have the emotional makeup yet to do that consistently. It has shown that it can win in the playoffs, and that’s what I’ll hang my hat on as it slogs through the regular season.
 

NomarsFool

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 21, 2001
8,160
Teague has been a surprise call the last two games. I'm not sure Nesmith ever came in the second half, which was a bit of a surprise compared to recently. Also surprised to see Javonte Green for a 3 minute stint.

All 3 of TT, DT, and RW are playing well - but I just don't like two of them on the floor at the same time.
 

nolasoxfan

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 11, 2004
6,930
Displaced
Not really analysis, but the Celtics announced that fans will be allowed (obviously with a ton of restrictions) beginning March 29.

View: https://twitter.com/celtics/status/1365013212928892928?s=21
JFC, we really can’t help ourselves can we?

”I know the forest is drier than it’s been in decades and the fire threat is an 8, but our one little campfire won’t hurt anything. We shouldn’t have to wait until the rains come.”

Apologies for the hijack, but this national ‘yo-yo’ strategy has me apoplectic.
 

Koufax

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
5,936
As someone who expects to be fully vaccinated by that day, I welcome the opportunity to go cheer them on. It will be wierd with only 2.000 fans or so in the building.
 

CoffeeNerdness

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 6, 2012
8,718

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
20,124
Santa Monica
Which currently roster players do you think would best complement Walker in a Kemba and the bench lineup?
I like the way TT has been setting screens. Semi can spot up from 3. Nesmith. Theis can pick and pop. Probably another PG to help with ballhandling. Depends on the matchups.

Just greenlight Kemba, seems like he is at his happiest/most productive being the alpha scorer
 

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
20,124
Santa Monica
https://clutchpoints.com/celtics-news-jayson-tatum-jaylen-brown-are-part-problem-per-anonymous-player/amp/
“Tatum and Brown can’t be your superstars,” the anonymous player said. “They only do things to help their game. They don’t get anyone else easy shots. All they know how to do is score. They don’t turn down tough shots to get a guy an easy shot. So teams are onto them.”

The piling on has begun in earnest.
The Jays are not close to being finished players, rough month, but they are still ascending
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
12,001
https://clutchpoints.com/celtics-news-jayson-tatum-jaylen-brown-are-part-problem-per-anonymous-player/amp/
“Tatum and Brown can’t be your superstars,” the anonymous player said. “They only do things to help their game. They don’t get anyone else easy shots. All they know how to do is score. They don’t turn down tough shots to get a guy an easy shot. So teams are onto them.”

The piling on has begun in earnest.
“They’re also 22 and 24 and will probably never improve their games further”, the anonymous player, who has yet to make the playoffs in his 5-year career, added.
 

Ferm Sheller

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 5, 2007
20,404
A little sleuthing leads me to believe that that quote may be attributable to Devin Booker. 5th year player. Never made playoffs. His team recently played the Celtics (Suns faced the C's on Feb. 7th). Very few other guys fit the bill.
 

128

Member
SoSH Member
May 4, 2019
10,024
A little sleuthing leads me to believe that that quote may be attributable to Devin Booker. 5th year player. Never made playoffs. His team recently played the Celtics (Suns faced the C's on Feb. 7th). Very few other guys fit the bill.
Pretty sure that additional "quote" and attribution were the product of lovegtm's creative mind.
 
Last edited: