Analysis of Celtics Games (2020-2021)

Sam Ray Not · Mar 1, 2021

Nice blast from the past, thanks FelixMantilla. For two seasons right around then (maybe ‘81-82 and ‘82-83?) my friend and I got “Bird Packs” — sets of sixteen tickets in the upper balcony for ... wait for it ... $96. I think maybe it went up to an exorbitant $104 in the second season. Came in the mail in a perforated sheet, like stamps. I remember carefully tearing them and stacking up them up chronologically. Felt like the best Christmas present ever.

So many great memories from those seasons, but one that sticks out was seeing wunderkind Ainge getting up shots pre-game before his actual NBA debut. Rapt attention in the second balcony...

Jimbodandy · Mar 1, 2021

nighthob said:
Trading Smart for a guy that couldn’t defend Kuzma to a roomful of Laker fans is the definition of unloading a player. Especially when that player is carrying the contract that said people are using as a justification for unloading Marcus (i.e. “Someone will give Marcus a near max deal, we have to trade him!!!”).

If Buddy Hield is the answer you’re asking the wrong fucking question.

Sorry for the fanboy drive-by post, but I have to thank you for your elegant prose.

"Couldn't defend Kuzma to a roomful of Laker fans" hit me right in the G spot.

nighthob · Mar 1, 2021

The contract fears are unfounded. Teams don’t spend near max money for “culture change” unless the culture change comes attached to Kevin Garnett type players. Aside from that tying up $25 million per year for clubhouse leadership is the quickest ticket to the unemployment line for GMs. He’s Dray Green’s Minime and guys like that are always more valuable to the team they’re on than rebuilding squads. Contenders would all love Marcus, but contenders are paying the MLE, not 4/100.

Honestly Marcus’s injury probably makes a reasonable extension (roughly 3/55) this offseason the most likely result.

NomarsFool · Mar 1, 2021

nighthob said:
Honestly Marcus’s injury probably makes a reasonable extension (roughly 3/55) this offseason the most likely result.

In my opinion, unless Marcus really trusts his agent, his next contract with Boston won't come until he's a FA. The problem is, I think MS really overestimates his own value (as do most players, truthfully). I agree that he's much more valuable to the Celtics than another team, but I think Marcus won't understand that until he goes out and talks to the other teams to really see what offers are on the table. Unfortunately, I think often times in these situations the player gets pissed off with their current team and it sours the whole relationship. I hope that doesn't happen, as I do think he brings a lot to the table.

lexrageorge · Mar 1, 2021

NomarsFool said:
In my opinion, unless Marcus really trusts his agent, his next contract with Boston won't come until he's a FA. The problem is, I think MS really overestimates his own value (as do most players, truthfully). I agree that he's much more valuable to the Celtics than another team, but I think Marcus won't understand that until he goes out and talks to the other teams to really see what offers are on the table. Unfortunately, I think often times in these situations the player gets pissed off with their current team and it sours the whole relationship. I hope that doesn't happen, as I do think he brings a lot to the table.

Is there any evidence that Marcus thinks this way?

Cesar Crespo · Mar 1, 2021

NomarsFool said:
In my opinion, unless Marcus really trusts his agent, his next contract with Boston won't come until he's a FA. The problem is, I think MS really overestimates his own value (as do most players, truthfully). I agree that he's much more valuable to the Celtics than another team, but I think Marcus won't understand that until he goes out and talks to the other teams to really see what offers are on the table. Unfortunately, I think often times in these situations the player gets pissed off with their current team and it sours the whole relationship. I hope that doesn't happen, as I do think he brings a lot to the table.

People thought that would happen last time. I'd guess he's closer to 3/45 and it may very well be the C's.

nighthob · Mar 1, 2021

If he goes all the way to free agency Boston almost certainly inks him for four years to bleed every last ounce of performance out of him. But, a three year extension is still the most likely result after the calf injury.

NomarsFool · Mar 1, 2021

lexrageorge said:
Is there any evidence that Marcus thinks this way?

Pretty much everything he ever says about himself. The constant campaigning that he's the best defensive player in the NBA (even this season - which would be a joke). Talking about what a great shooter he is.

We'll see what happens. Smart was the #6 overall - I think that is a bit of a tough legacy, lots of expectations from fans (and himself).That was a pretty lousy draft, if you look back on it - although Julius Randle and Zach Lavine are now blossoming into stars.

Cesar Crespo · Mar 1, 2021

NomarsFool said:
Pretty much everything he ever says about himself. The constant campaigning that he's the best defensive player in the NBA (even this season - which would be a joke). Talking about what a great shooter he is.

We'll see what happens. Smart was the #6 overall - I think that is a bit of a tough legacy, lots of expectations from fans (and himself).That was a pretty lousy draft, if you look back on it - although Julius Randle and Zach Lavine are now blossoming into stars.

Warren was blossoming into a star before his injury. The 2nd round also had Jerami Grant who is also blossoming into a star and NIkola Jokic who is a top 10 player in the league.

HomeRunBaker · Mar 1, 2021

NomarsFool said:
That was a pretty lousy draft, if you look back on it - although Julius Randle and Zach Lavine are now blossoming into stars.

You could put together a contender from the 2nd round alone that year with this starting lineup. Jokic as your point center in the halfcourt.

Joe Harris
Dinwiddie
Jokic
Jeremi Grant
Clarkson

Dwight Powell and Jordan McRae off the bench.

lovegtm · Mar 2, 2021

HomeRunBaker said:
You could put together a contender from the 2nd round alone that year with this starting lineup. Jokic as your point center in the halfcourt.

Joe Harris
Dinwiddie
Jokic
Jeremi Grant
Clarkson

Dwight Powell and Jordan McRae off the bench.

Is that the GOAT 2nd team? Man, crazy depth that year.

Re Smart: if he’s actually getting extended/re-signed at a 3/50 type number, obviously I’d keep him barring a situation where he’s somehow the sticking point in a star deal.

NomarsFool · Mar 2, 2021

lovegtm said:
Is that the GOAT 2nd team? Man, crazy depth that year.

Yes, it would have been more correct to say it was a lousy lottery class - as those players haven't done much (Embiid aside and now Randle)


Andrew Wiggins~	SF/SG	Canada	Cleveland Cavaliers	Kansas (Fr.)
1	2	Jabari Parker	SF/PF	United States	Milwaukee Bucks	Duke (Fr.)
1	3	Joel Embiid*	C	Cameroon	Philadelphia 76ers	Kansas (Fr.)
1	4	Aaron Gordon	PF	United States	Orlando Magic	Arizona (Fr.)
1	5	Dante Exum	PG/SG	Australia	Utah Jazz	Australian Institute of Sport [n 2]
1	6	Marcus Smart	SG/PG	United States	Boston Celtics	Oklahoma State (So.)
1	7	Julius Randle+	PF	United States	Los Angeles Lakers	Kentucky (Fr.)
1	8	Nik Stauskas	SG	Canada	Sacramento Kings	Michigan (So.)
1	9	Noah Vonleh	PF	United States	Charlotte Hornets (from Detroit)[A]	Indiana (Fr.)
1	10	Elfrid Payton	PG	United States	Philadelphia 76ers (from New Orleans,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_NBA_draft#cite_note-10th-14 traded to Orlando)[a]	Louisiana–Lafayette (Jr.)
1	11	Doug McDermott	SF	United States	Denver Nuggets (traded to Chicago)https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_NBA_draft#cite_note-denchi-18	Creighton (Sr.)
1	12	Dario Šarić	PF	Croatia	Orlando Magic (from New York via Denver,[C] traded to Philadelphia)[a]	Cibona Zagreb (Croatia)[n 3]
1	13	Zach LaVine+	SG	United States	Minnesota Timberwolves	UCLA (Fr.)
1	14	T. J. Warren

HomeRunBaker · Mar 2, 2021

Was the 2013 lottery even worse? That one was painfully bad yet made worse by Giannis, Schroeder and Gobert going outside the Top-14.
Here were the first 9 names called. Wow painful!

Bennett
Oladipo
Porter
Zeller
Len
Noel
McLemore
KCP
Burke

the moops · Mar 2, 2021

lovegtm said:
Is that the GOAT 2nd team? Man, crazy depth that year.

While not nearly as good, the 2015 2nd round draft class could throw a three headed monster of Harrell, Hernangomez, Holmes at center, with Josh Richardson, Norman Powell, Pat Connaughton, Cedi Osman out there

HomeRunBaker · Mar 2, 2021

the moops said:
While not nearly as good, the 2015 2nd round draft class could throw a three headed monster of Harrell, Hernangomez, Holmes at center, with Josh Richardson, Norman Powell, Pat Connaughton, Cedi Osman out there

Christian Wood was in that class as well but went Undrafted.

DannyDarwinism · Mar 2, 2021

the moops said:
While not nearly as good, the 2015 2nd round draft class could throw a three headed monster of Harrell, Hernangomez, Holmes at center, with Josh Richardson, Norman Powell, Pat Connaughton, Cedi Osman out there

2012 has some elite role-players- Dray, Jae, Middleton, plus Will Barton and Satoransky

2005 is pretty remarkable- 9 guys in the second with over 10,000 minutes. And I remember that Nellie was riding him hard, but I still probably would've lost a bunch of money betting against Monte Ellis having significantly more NBA minutes than Lou Williams.

Another random stat that probably shouldn't surprise me but still does- including this year, Russ has 6 seasons with under 30% from 3pt while taking over 3.5 a game.

nighthob · Mar 2, 2021

I think Khris Middleton has graduated past roleplayer status. But then my view might be being impacted by normally watching him play the Celtics.

HomeRunBaker · Mar 2, 2021

DannyDarwinism said:
2012 has some elite role-players- Dray, Jae, Middleton, plus Will Barton and Satoransky

2005 is pretty remarkable- 9 guys in the second with over 10,000 minutes. And I remember that Nellie was riding him hard, but I still probably would've lost a bunch of money betting against Monte Ellis having significantly more NBA minutes than Lou Williams.

Another random stat that probably shouldn't surprise me but still does- including this year, Russ has 6 seasons with under 30% from 3pt while taking over 3.5 a game.

Danny!!!
Middleton and Satoransky in the same sentence?

He’d be a 25 Ppg scorer if not for Giannis trying for an Elmer’s endorsement deal.

DannyDarwinism · Mar 2, 2021

HomeRunBaker said:
Danny!!!
Middleton and Satoransky in the same sentence?

He’d be a 25 Ppg scorer if not for Giannis trying for an Elmer’s endorsement deal.

He’s shooting for consecutive 40/50/90 seasons.”Elite role player” certainly undersells him and Draymond, I just meant that there was no real alpha of the group, but a Sato/Barton/Middleton/Jae/Dray lineup (of very different 6’7 guys) would win some games, at least if we’re looking at primes.

128 · Mar 4, 2021

C's get a nice break after tonight, but later this month they're looking at an eight-games-in-12-days stretch.

wade boggs chicken dinner · Mar 10, 2021

Marcus is practicing today; may not participate fully but is "close" to being cleared to play.

Romeo has been cleared to practice today (Wednesday).

https://www.masslive.com/celtics/2021/03/marcus-smart-injury-celtics-guard-is-pretty-close-to-being-cleared-to-return-from-calf-injury.html

HomeRunBaker · Mar 10, 2021

wade boggs chicken dinner said:
Marcus is practicing today; may not participate fully but is "close" to being cleared to play.

Romeo has been cleared to practice today (Wednesday).

https://www.masslive.com/celtics/2021/03/marcus-smart-injury-celtics-guard-is-pretty-close-to-being-cleared-to-return-from-calf-injury.html

It’s like adding a starting guard/glue guy along with an interesting deep bench flier for nothing at the deadline. Marcus has a chance to really drive up his market value over the second half of this team should this teams turnaround coincide with his return.

mcpickl · Mar 10, 2021

wade boggs chicken dinner said:
Marcus is practicing today; may not participate fully but is "close" to being cleared to play.

Romeo has been cleared to practice today (Wednesday).

https://www.masslive.com/celtics/2021/03/marcus-smart-injury-celtics-guard-is-pretty-close-to-being-cleared-to-return-from-calf-injury.html

(1) Shams Charania on Twitter: "Boston Celtics guard Marcus Smart (calf) says he expects to return to the lineup on Thursday against the Brooklyn Nets. Major infusion for the Celtics lineup. Smart is averaging career highs in points, assists and steals this season." / Twitter

Marcus thinks he's ready to go

Lazy vs Crazy · Mar 10, 2021

Romeo cleared to play - except he's caught in the COVID protocols. What a disaster for that kid.

Per Jay King/Brad Stevens

View: https://twitter.com/ByJayKing/status/1369736257681698817

NomarsFool · Mar 10, 2021

He's basically this season's Rob Williams. I swear (prior to this year) every time there was an opportunity for Rob to get extended minutes, he would come down with something.

128 · Mar 10, 2021

View: https://twitter.com/BrooklynNets/status/1369809230874705923

Strike4 · Mar 12, 2021

Probably stating the obvious, but a huge issue seems to be that the Celtics have such limited offensive options at the end of a close game that it has a cascading effect on everything. Brown and Tatum are great options to have but there is tremendous pressure on them. This is exacerbated when one of them has a bad game. Tatum was GREAT last night and Brown was bad. Tatum hit a few great shots to keep them close, but Brown was pressing and this led to some turnovers. This in turn led to high percentage opportunities for the Nets' offensive options close and late - specifically, Kyrie last night.

I was hoping that Kemba could provide something of a third opportunity but it doesn't look like he will fill that role on a regular basis. If Smart, however, can be a force on defense to counteract opponents offensive closers (he did a great job again on Harden last night), that might provide something of a defensive answer.

wade boggs chicken dinner · Mar 12, 2021

Strike4 said:
I was hoping that Kemba could provide something of a third opportunity but it doesn't look like he will fill that role on a regular basis. If Smart, however, can be a force on defense to counteract opponents offensive closers (he did a great job again on Harden last night), that might provide something of a defensive answer.

Kemba is going to have a hard time being the third guy when he only takes 12 shots in the game (which includes some forced, clock-winding-down shots). I don't know what the answer is, though I presume that KW will rarely have a great game when the Jays are combining for 45 shots.

OTOH, I worry more about the defense. As Brad said in his 1Q recap, the Cs lost Shameet several times early and then lost Kyrie a couple of times late. Maybe that's a function of not having consistent lineups but BRK shot way too many wide open 3s (even if they are a great offensive team). It would be great to see them really lock down as a defense in at least a couple of games over the next few weeks.

Rook05 · Mar 12, 2021

Kemba’s variance is extremely high but seems to be skewed more towards poor percentages. He certainly clanged his fair share of open looks last night, but the Nets did a good job of challenging his in-rhythm looks. Without some uptick in playmaking or some better finishing at the rim, he’s a one trick pony, and an unreliable one at that. I don’t know what the answer is outside of the super sub role described elsewhere. Maybe he can lean into the midrange game more.

Whatever the case, this team just doesn’t have enough. I hope that doesn’t discourage the Jays, but they are more likely to stay a tier below the Nets/6ers/Bucks than they are to catch fire. I think DBMH pointed it out yesterday, but if your run depends on injuries to contenders, you ain’t one. I think Danny knows this, but his options this year are limited.

HomeRunBaker · Mar 12, 2021

Strike4 said:
Probably stating the obvious, but a huge issue seems to be that the Celtics have such limited offensive options at the end of a close game that it has a cascading effect on everything. Brown and Tatum are great options to have but there is tremendous pressure on them. This is exacerbated when one of them has a bad game. Tatum was GREAT last night and Brown was bad. Tatum hit a few great shots to keep them close, but Brown was pressing and this led to some turnovers. This in turn led to high percentage opportunities for the Nets' offensive options close and late - specifically, Kyrie last night.

I was hoping that Kemba could provide something of a third opportunity but it doesn't look like he will fill that role on a regular basis. If Smart, however, can be a force on defense to counteract opponents offensive closers (he did a great job again on Harden last night), that might provide something of a defensive answer.

Kemba is avg about 20 ppg over his last 10 games after getting into game shape. Not sure why he’s being discussed as someone who isn’t an offensive option. There is a noticeable difference in the teams tempo and ball movement when he’s not on the floor.

NomarsFool · Mar 12, 2021

Last night there was no Durant, and while the game was close until pretty late in the 4th, the Nets put them away. The Nets are going to be even stronger in the playoffs when their starters play more minutes. I don't think this is the Celtics' year, unfortunately.

Strike4 · Mar 12, 2021

wade boggs chicken dinner said:
Kemba is going to have a hard time being the third guy when he only takes 12 shots in the game (which includes some forced, clock-winding-down shots). I don't know what the answer is, though I presume that KW will rarely have a great game when the Jays are combining for 45 shots.

I'm hoping that any trade deadline acquisition is not just "third option" but turns into third option A and B because a new player has the potential to help Kemba become more productive. He can benefit the most from a trade.

I agree @HomeRunBaker that Kemba has done a great job getting back into physical shape and I think his recovery has exceeded expectation. However, I do think that his days of being the guy at the end of games, or that guy who can carry a team when the J's are having an off night, are going to be limited going forward. As has been mentioned upthread, most of his shots in crunch time are difficult and contested now. Taking that pressure off can help him in a new role.

Cesar Crespo · Mar 12, 2021

NomarsFool said:
Last night there was no Durant, and while the game was close until pretty late in the 4th, the Nets put them away. The Nets are going to be even stronger in the playoffs when their starters play more minutes. I don't think this is the Celtics' year, unfortunately.

Probably not but there are always injuries. Plus, there is a small snowball's chance in hell Romeo Langford has taken the "leap" and we don't know it yet.

Player development is a weird thing.

NomarsFool · Mar 12, 2021

I'm just saying, if I were Ainge, I don't think I'd go all-in for this season. I'd probably look for some kind of half-measure that upgrades minutes from Semi (who we didn't see last night with Smart back) and Teague (who did still play).

geoduck no quahog · Mar 12, 2021

NomarsFool said:
Last night there was no Durant, and while the game was close until pretty late in the 4th, the Nets put them away. The Nets are going to be even stronger in the playoffs when their starters play more minutes. I don't think this is the Celtics' year, unfortunately.

You gotta wonder if it's the Sixers' or Bucks' year also...against an all Hall-of-Fame offensive team. The West looks like a more entertaining race.

Jimbodandy · Mar 12, 2021

I'll say one thing about last night. Steve Nash would be on my COY ballot. Kyrie and Harden both playing defense for four quarters in a regular season game was something to behold.

128 · Mar 15, 2021

View: https://twitter.com/celtics/status/1371555807981092866

Dog bites man.

NomarsFool · Mar 15, 2021

"Brad Stevens was interviewed postgame after the Celtics loss vs the Rockets. Robert Williams had another breakout game tonight, and the question arose of eliminating the double big lineups. Stevens said he talked to Daniel Theis, saying there may be no more of these lineups moving forward. Despite this, Stevens said the team would still be cautious with Williams’ minutes moving forward because of his injury history. He also talked about the Celtics great energy since the All-Star break. Stevens praised the team, and the bench in particular. Boston was able to come away with a 134-107 win in this one."

Interesting.

Koufax · Mar 15, 2021

Theis had very few minutes in the second half of that win (not loss). I found that pretty peculiar unless of course there some truth to the rumor of TT being on the trade block and they were showcasing him.

wade boggs chicken dinner · Mar 15, 2021

Koufax said:
Theis had very few minutes in the second half of that win (not loss). I found that pretty peculiar unless of course there some truth to the rumor of TT being on the trade block and they were showcasing him.

DT also played just 7 minutes against TOR because Brad said TOR "is impossible to play big against." Brad also said that DT has played so many games in the last three years (including 24 playoff games) that he likes to give DT some rest.

There are enough games coming in the next couple of months that I'm sure DT and TT and TL will be sitting games out.

HomeRunBaker · Mar 15, 2021

Koufax said:
Theis had very few minutes in the second half of that win (not loss). I found that pretty peculiar unless of course there some truth to the rumor of TT being on the trade block and they were showcasing him.

TT had received consistent minutes all year (22.5 mpg) so there isn’t anything abnormal with him playing 24.

NomarsFool · Mar 15, 2021

I think it is pretty clear that Brad Stevens has moved away from the double big lineup, and he seems to be preferring RW and TT over DT.

lexrageorge · Mar 15, 2021

NomarsFool said:
I think it is pretty clear that Brad Stevens has moved away from the double big lineup, and he seems to be preferring RW and TT over DT.

Or it may have been the most favorable matchup for that one particular game.

NomarsFool · Mar 16, 2021

It's more than one game now. I'm also not sure there's a lot of chess playing going on in a game against the Rockets where they enjoyed a double digit lead for most of the game.

HomeRunBaker · Mar 16, 2021

NomarsFool said:
It's more than one game now. I'm also not sure there's a lot of chess playing going on in a game against the Rockets where they enjoyed a double digit lead for most of the game.

Brad isn’t going to purposely play bad matchups until late-4Q when it’s garbage time and there was no reason to utilize 2 bigs in this game. I’m not really a fan of it anyway but didn’t ever expect him to go that route vs the Rockets. Tonight will put the is he still or isn’t he playing 2 bigs to the test in the Jazz rematch. In the first meeting we went 2-bigs for about 18-20 of the 48 minutes.

benhogan · Mar 16, 2021

HomeRunBaker said:
Brad isn’t going to purposely play bad matchups until late-4Q when it’s garbage time and there was no reason to utilize 2 bigs in this game. I’m not really a fan of it anyway but didn’t ever expect him to go that route vs the Rockets. Tonight will put the is he still or isn’t he playing 2 bigs to the test in the Jazz rematch. In the first meeting we went 2-bigs for about 18-20 of the 48 minutes.

when Marcus is healthy enough to play a full game, starting 2 BIGs will end.

Brad pretty said as much in the post-game presser

HomeRunBaker · Mar 16, 2021

benhogan said:
when Marcus is healthy enough to play a full game, starting 2 BIGs will end.

Brad pretty said as much in the post-game presser

I agree this is a big factor in the 2 Big lineup. Brad was forced to use wings who shouldn’t have seen the floor as it was. If he didn’t use that lineup it would have resulted in more minutes for J.Green, Nesmith and Grant. Like I said though tonight will be a tell since Smart is still good for 20-24 mpg.

128 · Mar 16, 2021

View: https://twitter.com/celtics/status/1371920766724411402

If the C's were hoping to showcase Thompson for a trade, that plan is on hold for a while.

Cesar Crespo · Mar 16, 2021

For those wanting to see TL play 25+ minutes a night, now is the time.

NomarsFool · Mar 16, 2021

This would be the time in the past when TL would slip on a banana or something

Analysis of Celtics Games (2020-2021)

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