Pats QB Options

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Zincman

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Depending on the starter, I would do it in a second for Fields.
Just want to remind folks that EVERY year there is a crop of college QBs who are scrutinized, evaluated, and almost always over-drafted. Each year, SOMEONE is the best QB on the board and a group of 4 or 5 others form the pretender to the throne group. It does not mean that any of them are necessarily "the answer" and it is entirely possible that BB looks at this group and puts 4-6 round grades on them. Giving up 3 firsts because we like what we see is mostly folly unless BB is entirely positive he's got the right guy.
 

Shelterdog

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Just want to remind folks that EVERY year there is a crop of college QBs who are scrutinized, evaluated, and almost always over-drafted. Each year, SOMEONE is the best QB on the board and a group of 4 or 5 others form the pretender to the throne group. It does not mean that any of them are necessarily "the answer" and it is entirely possible that BB looks at this group and puts 4-6 round grades on them. Giving up 3 firsts because we like what we see is mostly folly unless BB is entirely positive he's got the right guy.
Ok. Well first just to be that guy BB doesn’t actually put round grades on players. But sure, of course if BB doesn’t agree with my dumb scouting assessment that Fields is going to be a really good nfl qb he shouldn’t make the trade. But where’s the fun in that discussion l?
 

Zincman

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Please forgive me if I insulted you. I had no such intention. It was merely my awkward attempt to point out something that plagues every draft. Research indicates two things. Generally speaking, if you want a top tier NFL QB, you should draft him in the top ten picks but the inverse is not true, that is, drafting a QB in the top ten picks is no guarantee of getting a top tier NFL QB.

But the NFL is so desperate for top QB play, they have become willing to overdraft the position. Sure, Mahomes was a clever pick at #10 and Josh Allen was a smart choice at #7 and you could argue that despite bad luck, Andrew Luck was the right choice at #1. But there is also Blake Bortles at #3, Johnny Manziel at #22, Jameis Winston at #1, Marcus Mariota at #2, Josh Rosen at #10, Mitch Trubitsky at #2 and somebody thought Brandon Weeden was a first round pick.

I like to dream on Fields and Lance myself and am involved in the discussions on this board about every available QB, realizing that my opinion is that of an amateur. That doesn't stop me from proffering an opinion because I also realize that's the fun. But it also seems to me that each year someone is the best of a bunch, sometimes a bad bunch and if the professionals make so many mistakes in their efforts to secure a top QB, then I just say beware of the overdraft, because missing on a #1 is highly damaging to a franchise.
 

Bowser

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It's a good point. Drafting a QB in the first round is like buying a $20 scratch card.* We're more likely to believe it will pay off because what kind of moron would spend $20 on a scratch card?

* Or not.

Edit: OK, my neighbor won $1 million on a $20 scratch card, but after the lump sum and taxes it was only, like, $370K or so.
 

CSteinhardt

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I like to dream on Fields and Lance myself and am involved in the discussions on this board about every available QB, realizing that my opinion is that of an amateur. That doesn't stop me from proffering an opinion because I also realize that's the fun. But it also seems to me that each year someone is the best of a bunch, sometimes a bad bunch and if the professionals make so many mistakes in their efforts to secure a top QB, then I just say beware of the overdraft, because missing on a #1 is highly damaging to a franchise.
The biggest cost of missing on a highly-drafted QB isn't losing the value of the pick - teams make mistakes with high picks on a regular basis, after all and can make up for it if they hit on enough later picks. The biggest cost of missing on a highly-drafted QB is that it typically takes 2-3 seasons of bad QB play to know that you've missed, since even future HoF QBs tend to be bad QBs while developing. This is one place that teams have been getting a lot more aggressive recently, and I suspect that in a decade, will look at back at the history of at least one elite QB and wonder how the team that drafted him let him go before realizing what they had. But even so, that's the big cost. And pre-draft grades don't correlate all that well with NFL performance, which means you're basically just taking your chances and hoping that you get one of the ~30-50% of top 10 QBs who would make you happy with the pick. I don't think there's enough scouting skill to really change those odds all that much.

Of course, at this point the alternative is Cam. So, whether it's correct to take a shot at trading up for a QB really depends upon your expectations for Cam, not just next year, but also likely for the next few, as it's likely that next year's draft will have a later pick in what's expected to be a weaker QB class, which means a lower chance of success if you draft a QB later.
 

Saints Rest

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I know this has been said many times, but it hears repeating: a QB’s NFL success level clips likely even more a function of the situation he gets drafted into. Learning to play in the NFL is hard enough, as noted by the number of HOF QBs were pretty ugly in Year One. But when the team doesn’t have an OLine to protect him (cf David Carr) or players to throw to or a running game to take the pressure off, it makes it much harder for him. And invariably that then leads to an impatient owner dumping the Head Coach and/or OC, and now the poor kid has to start over in Year 2.
 

jsinger121

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This is the year to move up to draft a QB. You have the line in place to protect that rookie QB along with improved skill position players and a solid running game that can protect said QB. With the 2022 class not looking great for QB’s now is the time to get the guy for the future.
 

SMU_Sox

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@Zincman you aren’t an amateur really though imo. Well, maybe now at this point in your life you are but I think you’re downplaying your level of knowledge and expertise. You see things in tape study at an advanced level. I feel very fortunate that there are so many high caliber fans in my life who give up time to just watch prospects. I hope I see you next Saturday !

I think you’re right that the NFL overdrafts guys. But I also think that sometimes guys might just not be developed correctly either. It’s a chicken and egg thing to some degree. And to your point you made earlier the NFL is good at figuring out who the best QB prospects are and they usually go top10 so you tend to lose if you don’t play the game.

I will post the recording later this week but Mark Schofield took us through Mills, Mond, and Newman. Along with Trask those are the next tier or 2nd tier guys.
I’ll summarize and if anyone wants to correct me if I am mistaken feel free.


QB discussion below:

Mills:
I don’t see a ton of difference between Mac Jones and Mills skill set wise. Both are traditional pocket passers with average to below average arms. Both do a lot of pre-snap work like being able to check in or out of plays. Mills played on an inferior team. Mills might also be a tick worse at reading the defense than Mac Jones but Jones had such better receivers and an OL that it’s hard to know if that’s true. Both guys are smart though. Both are fairly accurate but imo neither have great deep accuracy consistently. Jones had more practice time over the years with his receivers than Mills did. Mills also has some injury history. Mills rebound in Stanford game spoke to his mental toughness as did coming back from injuries and still taking big hits to make big throws. Jones? Is he tough? He’ll take shots, sure, but has never had much pressure in a game.

Both have acceptable levels of pocket mobility but neither guy is someone who will scramble much and obviously neither are dual-threats.

They both are smart enough, accurate enough, and tough enough, to be traditionally in considering for BB.

Trask we didn’t review but we’ve talked about him here. I like Trask but the more I watch him the more I don’t think he translates well to the NFL. His mechanics, size, immobility, accuracy struggles all chip away at how he will succeed without a big pocket and having to make more right window throws. Mills and Jones have some ability to extend plays with the pocket presence and limited ability scrambling but Trask is close to being a statue.

Before we get into Mond and Newman let’s talk big picture offense. Having a dual-threat QB or at least a guy who can run 3-4+ times a game when you want to run 12/21/22 changes the way the defense has to play you both personnel groupings wise and also X’s and O’s. So while mobility wasn’t a necessity in the past Bill might want someone who can help take their running offense to another level. I thought that’s one thing that helped make them 7-9 last year with that dreadful roster was Cam’s ability as a runner. So going forward I think Bill wouldn’t rule out someone for not being a runner but he might value a runner much more highly all else being relatively equal. Also being a runner gives you additional ways to win over a pocket passer as well as extend plays.

Mond to me is a little like plywood. He can do a lot of things at a good level but he isn’t elite at anything and all together even if he hits would be a lower end starter. I’ve seen 3-4 of his 2020 games and IMO he is also smart enough, accurate enough, and tough enough. Mond has at the least enough mobility to scramble as well as possibly being able to have a couple designed runs or options with him. He has sufficient arm strength. He could improve his processing speed but it’s in the middle or upper part of this class. His accuracy downfield can be hit or miss. He’s older, has played a lot, and while he has improved it’s possible he doesn’t have a ton of room left to grow. He is good at taking what the defense gives him but could stand to be more aggressive. He’s not going to be special and personally I see him as a backup type but I think he has enough to be a competent spot starter who can probably play in a variety of systems.

Last guy is Newman. In terms of passers Newman is probably the worst of this group of 3. He’s the best runner by far. He actually runs like an RB setting up blocks and manipulating LBs to take the wrong gaps. He has a ton of power. He’s fast and has good COD. He can also throw on the move. In terms of Arm strength Newman easily has the best arm. The issue with him is lack of touch (he has a fastball). He flashes touch! But he’s definitely not used to it. He’s not great at reading coverage as he’s stared into interceptions. He’s also slow at getting the ball out. He will see a concept but either won’t throw with the right touch or won’t throw it in time. So for him you’d need to speed up his processing time a ton as well as improve how he plays with anticipation. He might be scheme limited to a West Coast offense. I think though he’d do well in it.

None of these guys are great fits for the Pats but if I had to stack the board I agree with Mark: Mills, Mond, Newman.

Here is my thoughts on why 2nd and 3rd round picks might not be less valuable than usual vs later round picks.
Covid has caused some prospects to have down years. Some guys missed time. Others missed the opportunity to develop over summer before the season started and then didn’t have a ton of practice time because of COVID. Weeks of practices, off-season programs, and games were cancelled. The point is COVID has made life difficult for prospects in all kinds of ways. For many opt-outs we don’t know if they improved. And we don’t know how the NFL will treat them. I don’t think results wise Ambry Thomas is that far off from Campbell (UGA). Had he played this year after gaining some weight he might have seen his stock skyrocket. Others might have had down years but instead went out on a high note. Listening to Tony Pauline each year there are like 10-20-25 guys who are thought as day 3 coming into the year but who have a good year and go day 2. Again - think about every possible way COVID has interrupted the normal prospect life process and the process of a college player. It adds up.
We’ve heard that this is the most all over the place draft boards have been as teams struggle to determine how to handle this past year. To me that means there will be more randomness than usual this year and it follows that could mean a chance that good players could slip into day 3 because the teams are going to have a harder time identifying values correctly.

I see the board as fairly strong for the first 15-20 players or so and then it falls off and with the uncertainty of prospects due to COVID things level out. With so many day 3 picks early on and with the possibility of day 2 picks being not as valuable this year in comparison to a normal year I could see the Patriots being aggressive to get a QB this year and then making a volume play early on in day 3.

Who is their ideal fit? Mark says this and I agree I think it is Fields then Lance. Both of them have great arms, are leaders, and are true dual-threats. Fields is one of the most accurate throwers this year.
 

Shelterdog

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Please forgive me if I insulted you. I had no such intention. It was merely my awkward attempt to point out something that plagues every draft. Research indicates two things. Generally speaking, if you want a top tier NFL QB, you should draft him in the top ten picks but the inverse is not true, that is, drafting a QB in the top ten picks is no guarantee of getting a top tier NFL QB.

But the NFL is so desperate for top QB play, they have become willing to overdraft the position. Sure, Mahomes was a clever pick at #10 and Josh Allen was a smart choice at #7 and you could argue that despite bad luck, Andrew Luck was the right choice at #1. But there is also Blake Bortles at #3, Johnny Manziel at #22, Jameis Winston at #1, Marcus Mariota at #2, Josh Rosen at #10, Mitch Trubitsky at #2 and somebody thought Brandon Weeden was a first round pick.

I like to dream on Fields and Lance myself and am involved in the discussions on this board about every available QB, realizing that my opinion is that of an amateur. That doesn't stop me from proffering an opinion because I also realize that's the fun. But it also seems to me that each year someone is the best of a bunch, sometimes a bad bunch and if the professionals make so many mistakes in their efforts to secure a top QB, then I just say beware of the overdraft, because missing on a #1 is highly damaging to a franchise.
.
It’s all good. The flip side of all this is that a good QB, let alone a good qb on a rookie contract, is incredibly valuable: if you hit on the 40 percentish chance your top ten QB is good that more than makes up for most outcomes that you will get with multiple first round picks from a decent organization. This is particularly true because a lot of high picks (a quarter or more of first rounders) wash out.
 

SMU_Sox

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HT: @Super Nomario but Davis Mills ran a translated 4.6 40... that is fast... there is definitely some unknown potential upside Mills could have. If they don’t get Fields or Lance I’d like to see them stay away from Jones at 15 and grab Mills either at 96 or earlier (he’s probably a third round to fourth round pick).
 

YTF

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It's a good point. Drafting a QB in the first round is like buying a $20 scratch card.* We're more likely to believe it will pay off because what kind of moron would spend $20 on a scratch card?

* Or not.

Edit: OK, my neighbor won $1 million on a $20 scratch card, but after the lump sum and taxes it was only, like, $370K or so.
So your neighbor went for the quick fix rather than to let the money develop over time. He'd make a perfect, modern era NFL owner.
 

Cellar-Door

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So your neighbor went for the quick fix rather than to let the money develop over time. He'd make a perfect, modern era NFL owner.
Actually if you're smart taking the money up front is better, you'll get better returns than the annuity most of the time if you are disciplined
 

YTF

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Actually if you're smart taking the money up front is better, you'll get better returns than the annuity most of the time if you are disciplined
Yes, that does seem to be the advice of many and the key is certainly the discipline. It's another thread, but I'm curious if the age of the winner with said discipline could factor into the equation if he ends up with an additional $300,000 or so to invest over 20 years. Not sure a 25 year old might have that patience though.
 

Bowser

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So your neighbor went for the quick fix rather than to let the money develop over time. He'd make a perfect, modern era NFL owner.
Yeah, he went for a Toyota Tundra, a new kitchen, a ride-around John Deere, etc. For a while there'd be a delivery truck out front a couple times a week. Fun to see!
 

peritas

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So it looks like the Pats draft picks have a value of about the value of Atlanta’s pick at 4. Would you trade it all for a shot at a top QB. I would. Maybe even sweeten it.
 

Caspir

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For me, if it’s only this year’s picks then it’s a no brainer for a guy like Fields. Once you start moving next year’s second, etc., it gets tricky. I’d sign up for a trade of all our picks for Fields if we could do it.

There won’t be a ton of PT for rookies this year at key positions, and if you hit on a QB1 you are setting BB up with a rookie contract at the most important position, and I’ll take that bet all day.
 

Seels

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So it looks like the Pats draft picks have a value of about the value of Atlanta’s pick at 4. Would you trade it all for a shot at a top QB. I would. Maybe even sweeten it.
I'd probably want a few low picks left in the 6th or something. Team needs a pass receiving RB and could always use bodies to compete at K DB and DL
 

simplyeric

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Sunday evening hot take:
He’s going to ride with Cam this season, and trade down in this draft to get a higher pick next year. If Cam is dog turd they’ll be poised to really trade up high, and if he’s good enough then he’s good enough, and they won’t have to trade up into the top 3-4.
 

nighthob

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Sunday evening hot take:
He’s going to ride with Cam this season, and trade down in this draft to get a higher pick next year. If Cam is dog turd they’ll be poised to really trade up high, and if he’s good enough then he’s good enough, and they won’t have to trade up into the top 3-4.
Next year’s QB class isn’t very good.
 

DourDoerr

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There are also no guarantees the team you’re trading with will better a 15th pick next year. Plus, there will be more holes to fill with our own impending FA’s in a presumably more competitive market with a higher post-COVID cap. This is the year to package your picks for a high pick.
 

Remagellan

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Next year’s QB class isn’t very good.
We can't be sure of that until after next season. Going into his senior year, I doubt anyone had Joe Burrow going anywhere near the top of the draft, never mind as the first pick.

And in this year's draft, I have some faith that Lawrence and Wilson might be worth moving up for, but Fields, Lance, or Jones I'd only want them to take if they slid to the Pats at 15.
 

SeoulSoxFan

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There are also no guarantees the team you’re trading with will better a 15th pick next year. Plus, there will be more holes to fill with our own impending FA’s in a presumably more competitive market with a higher post-COVID cap. This is the year to package your picks for a high pick.
Absolutely agree.

The question is for whom? I am getting a feeling that the recent Fields talk is a smoke screen. Do we all remember how much NE loved Mayfield & were willing to trade up?

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/baker-mayfield-was-apparently-convinced-the-patriots-not-the-browns-were-going-to-draft-him/

BB has much less ammunition this time around, no longer owning 2 first and 2 second rounders to shake up the draft.

Given the careers of Mayfield (until last season, tbf), Sam Donald, and the sudden worries about Jackson's game, I am not so convinced that mortgaging the entirety of this year's draft picks for the top crop of QBs (not to mention future 1s) is worth the risk.

If they do go for it this year, I'm guessing BB would prefer Jones. He has shown the ability to process defenses, go through the reads, and make the throws when the opportunities present themselves.

With the multiple options that this offense has already built around a QB, Jones may be my pick as well.
 

BaseballJones

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Normally, you take a shot at a franchise QB and it fails, it's a disaster for your organization. Mainly because you could have used those picks on so many other helpful things. This team right now is incredibly loaded, and with a ton of young talent thanks to all their acquisitions. If there ever was a draft to swing for a home run for it's this one - they need a QB of the future, and there are several potential franchise QBs available in this draft. And if they blow their draft capital this year and it fails, I think, well, those rookies weren't likely to play this year anyway. It is never GOOD to swing and miss in a draft, obviously. But if you're going to take a shot at it, I've never seen a team in more of the right position to try it than this Patriots team right now.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Normally, you take a shot at a franchise QB and it fails, it's a disaster for your organization. Mainly because you could have used those picks on so many other helpful things. This team right now is incredibly loaded, and with a ton of young talent thanks to all their acquisitions. If there ever was a draft to swing for a home run for it's this one - they need a QB of the future, and there are several potential franchise QBs available in this draft. And if they blow their draft capital this year and it fails, I think, well, those rookies weren't likely to play this year anyway. It is never GOOD to swing and miss in a draft, obviously. But if you're going to take a shot at it, I've never seen a team in more of the right position to try it than this Patriots team right now.
Yeah, high risk move to wait. If there is no other plan at QB and Cam is bad, you’re committing to not having a young QB realistically ready to step in until year 3 post-FA splurge or to hoping a good QB otherwise becomes available before then.
 

JokersWildJIMED

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Absolutely agree.

The question is for whom? I am getting a feeling that the recent Fields talk is a smoke screen. Do we all remember how much NE loved Mayfield & were willing to trade up?

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/baker-mayfield-was-apparently-convinced-the-patriots-not-the-browns-were-going-to-draft-him/

BB has much less ammunition this time around, no longer owning 2 first and 2 second rounders to shake up the draft.

Given the careers of Mayfield (until last season, tbf), Sam Donald, and the sudden worries about Jackson's game, I am not so convinced that mortgaging the entirety of this year's draft picks for the top crop of QBs (not to mention future 1s) is worth the risk.

If they do go for it this year, I'm guessing BB would prefer Jones. He has shown the ability to process defenses, go through the reads, and make the throws when the opportunities present themselves.

With the multiple options that this offense has already built around a QB, Jones may be my pick as well.
I agree with this, but there is risk in relying on Mac Jones being there at 15, so if Jones is the plan they’re going to need to move up, and they probably need to move into the top 8 to guarantee themselves Jones. It all comes down to how much they like the quarterbacks in this draft and whether BB is willing to pay the steep price to move up (BB doesn’t deem the qbs coming out worth the draft capital and is willing to make SF an offer they can’t refuse).
 

Super Nomario

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Normally, you take a shot at a franchise QB and it fails, it's a disaster for your organization. Mainly because you could have used those picks on so many other helpful things. This team right now is incredibly loaded, and with a ton of young talent thanks to all their acquisitions. If there ever was a draft to swing for a home run for it's this one - they need a QB of the future, and there are several potential franchise QBs available in this draft. And if they blow their draft capital this year and it fails, I think, well, those rookies weren't likely to play this year anyway. It is never GOOD to swing and miss in a draft, obviously. But if you're going to take a shot at it, I've never seen a team in more of the right position to try it than this Patriots team right now.
I think you're exaggerating the loadedness of the team and the young talent in particular. Yes, they made a bunch of FA splashes, but they were 7-9 last year with one of the worst young talent bases in football. They added some really good pieces, some of which are really young. It remains to be seen how much it improves the squad.

And you're always more optimistic on these things and I'm always more pessimistic, but I think even if you assess the overall picture more rosily than I do, the sustainable way to stay young and talent is to continue to invest via the draft and groom the next generation. There is not much rookie contract talent on this team. The 2019 draft looks like a bust. 2020 looks good, but if we make 2021 a one-player draft, especially if we dip into the 2022 draft to do so, that's not a great ratio. This team does not have a lot of 2021 holes, but a ton of (expensive) 2022 holes, and we're not going to have the same cap situation next offseason to throw FA money at those problems if we don't have some young guys ready to step in.
 

BaseballJones

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The problem is that the team is basically set right now and there isn’t much space, if any, for many rookies. QB is the obvious fit. Maybe OL and RB? Where else will rookies play? So they get drafted and then get cut. That doesn’t help.

This is their chance - given everything else - to go for broke to get the next franchise QB. Again, it’s not good to try that and fail but the risk this year would be lessened compared to other years. It’s the time to go for it.
 

ZMart100

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That is like complaining the Sox have too many SP. It may look that way on paper at times, but injuries and under-performance happen regularly. Take a good player and let them compete. Are you really that confident that you can't do better than Tashawn Bower, Dee Virgin or Anfernee Jennings?

It is also a problem of overconfidence of evaluation. Moving up improves your chances of getting the Next Good QB™ from say 10% to 20%, but it is still far from a guarantee.
 
We have absolutely no idea if this is true or not.
Thank you - someone needed to say this! I mean, prior to his final year, Joe Burrow wasn't even remotely the Joe Burrow that became the automatic #1 pick two years ago. There will always be good QB prospects in every draft; we just don't necessarily know who they are yet for 2022.

(Interesting thought experiment: 20 years from now, when we look at the QB classes from the 2021 and 2022 NFL Drafts and identify which one QB had the best career, what is the likelihood that the player in question will be a 2021 draftee? I don't see how that can be more than a 70% or 75% chance, and it may well be closer to 50-60% - for the simple reason that the draft remains much more of a crapshoot than many draft-obsessive fans realize.)
 

Super Nomario

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The problem is that the team is basically set right now and there isn’t much space, if any, for many rookies. QB is the obvious fit. Maybe OL and RB? Where else will rookies play? So they get drafted and then get cut. That doesn’t help.
They might not play a lot as rookies, which is fine. But there are definitely roster spots to be had, pretty much everywhere except TE and P. Take, for instance, DL, where they signed three FAs (Godchaux, Anderson, and Adams) and re-signed two others (Wise and Davis). The contracts Adams and Davis got do not guarantee them roster spots, and of the holdovers only Byron Cowart played much last year, and I don't think he played well enough that he's a roster lock. A rookie could definitely wind up in a rotation there.

At other spots, a rookie might just be depth, but sometimes depth matters. And some rookies might redshirt, and that's fine, too. The draft shouldn't be about 2021 but 2022 and beyond. They've shored up the vast majority of their 2021 holes pre-draft. That's great, that's what they're supposed to do. There are definite needs on the horizon, and if they punt on the draft, it's going to get increasingly harder to fill them.

This is their chance - given everything else - to go for broke to get the next franchise QB. Again, it’s not good to try that and fail but the risk this year would be lessened compared to other years. It’s the time to go for it.
I agree there wouldn't be a huge 2021 impact, but the price would be paid in future years, when the young talent that should be blossoming doesn't exist. That's how we got where we were last offseason - we punted on the 2017 draft and blew the 2018 and 2019 drafts, and then you're not very good.
 

Average Game James

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The only thing I know for sure is that literally every mock draft has the Pats either taking or trading up to take Mac Jones, so we can pretty much rule him out. But with the cap hits for most of the new FA signings taking a big jump next year (only $28mn in projected space per OTC without a QB and losing Gilmore, DMC, JC Jackson, Hightower, and Wynn among others) the roster construction almost demands a cheap QB so you have to think Bill has identified someone in the draft. As Super Nomario points out, there are holes to fill for '22 and beyond - I'd like to see the Pats come out of the draft with a T, a pass catching RB, and at least one piece for the secondary - so I really hope Bill loves one of the middle round guys like Mond or Newman and doesn't have to spend a ton of capital to get into the top 5-8.
 

Mugsy's Jock

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Sunday evening hot take:
He’s going to ride with Cam this season, and trade down in this draft to get a higher pick next year. If Cam is dog turd they’ll be poised to really trade up high, and if he’s good enough then he’s good enough, and they won’t have to trade up into the top 3-4.
If BB were willing to accept losses, it'd have been way easier to do that last year with a team that was clearly between cycles. Yet, God bless his heart, they kept the pedal (such as it was) to the metal (e.g. refusing to play Stidham) all season and outperformed to the tune of 7 wins, when 5 would've positioned the team better for the future.

BB hates losing, even when it's the "right" move.
 

Mystic Merlin

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If BB were willing to accept losses, it'd have been way easier to do that last year with a team that was clearly between cycles. Yet, God bless his heart, they kept the pedal (such as it was) to the metal (e.g. refusing to play Stidham) all season and outperformed to the tune of 7 wins, when 5 would've positioned the team better for the future.

BB hates losing, even when it's the "right" move.
What professional football coach does otherwise?

And how would a coach even accomplish it? Do you tell the players? Not tell them but bench or trade all your good players under the pretense of getting other players experience? Draft knowingly subpar game plans?

I don’t think the promise of improving 5-6 draft spots is worth obliterating the culture of your team, which has been carefully cultivated over decades but is never immune to deterioration.

I know what you mean that 5-11 would’ve been better than 7-9, but the coaching staff TRYING to get there is a bad and impractical idea.
 

joe dokes

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If BB were willing to accept losses, it'd have been way easier to do that last year with a team that was clearly between cycles. Yet, God bless his heart, they kept the pedal (such as it was) to the metal (e.g. refusing to play Stidham) all season and outperformed to the tune of 7 wins, when 5 would've positioned the team better for the future.

BB hates losing, even when it's the "right" move.
It's also playing a long game. Not the same long game as trying to get a better draft pick, but the long game that involves players from the 2020 team playing hard and being supported by the coaches in 2020, many of whom will be playing in 2021.
 

joe dokes

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What professional football coach does otherwise?

And how would a coach even accomplish it? Do you tell the players? Not tell them but bench or trade all your good players under the pretense of getting other players experience? Draft knowingly subpar game plans?
Ask Doug Pederson.
 

JM3

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In general there are going to be some cornerstone QB prospects in any given future class, & other guys who will spark people's attention during the season.

The less notable the prospects coming in are, the more variance there would need to be in order for there to be a similar # of good prospects.

Additionally, the things that go into a QB being an elite prospect don't usually just magically show up out of nowhere. Trevor Lawrence has been the consensus #1 pick in this draft for about 3 years. & according to people who grade drafts every year, he's basically a top 5 QB prospect over the past 40 years.

Yes, every year each team will have someone they think is the "best" QB, but that doesn't actually mean there will be a good QB, let alone several good QBs.

2013 is the most obvious example. These are the QBs who were taken (spoiled cuz long):

#16 EJ Manuel - 3,767 career passing yards, last game in 2017.

#39 Geno Smith - 6,215 career passing yards, still technically in the league but hasn't thrown for more than 265 yards since 2014.

#73 Mike Glennon - 6,235 career passing yards, hasn't started more than 5 games in a season since 2013.

#98 Matt Barkley - 2,699 career passing yards, 11 TDs & 22 ints.

#110 Ryan Nassib - 128 career passing yards, hasn't played since 2015.

#112 Tyler Wilson - Cut by Raiders prior to 2013 season, never played a regular season NFL snap.

#115 Landry Jones - 1,310 career passing yards (plus 784 XFL passing yards).

#221 Brad Sorenson - Never played a regular season NFL snap.

#234 Zac Dysert - Spent time with 7 NFL teams until 2017, never played a regular season NFL snap.

#237 B.J. Daniels - 7 career passing yards.

#249 Sean Renfree - 11 career passing yards.

The best undrafted free agent was Jeff Tuel who threw for 309 yards for the Bills in 2013 in his only NFL action.

Right now, Sam Howell is the consensus #1 QB for 2022. He's a 6'2 QB at North Carolina - just like one Mitchell David Trubisky.

Anyway, the point is that this is overall a highly rated class & someone like Trey Lance is favored to be higher rated than say the 2nd highest rated QB in next year's class, so if the Patriots want to acquire a consensus highly rated QB, this is the year to do it, not next year when there are likely to be less good QBs & they're likely to be picking a fair amount later.

Of course, consensus rankings don't matter, it's the Patriots internal rankings, so we'll see how it goes.
 

DJnVa

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Guys like Sam Howell (UNC), Desmond Ridder (Cincy), Kedon Slovis (USC), Spencer Rattler (OU), Malik Willis (Liberty by way of Auburn), and Carson Strong (Nevada) are already mocked in places in the first round. How they rank compared to guys like Lance and Fields and Jones isn't for me to say, but to say the cupboard is bare isn't really true.
 

BusRaker

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We’ve heard that this is the most all over the place draft boards have been as teams struggle to determine how to handle this past year. To me that means there will be more randomness than usual this year and it follows that could mean a chance that good players could slip into day 3 because the teams are going to have a harder time identifying values correctly.

I see the board as fairly strong for the first 15-20 players or so and then it falls off and with the uncertainty of prospects due to COVID things level out. With so many day 3 picks early on and with the possibility of day 2 picks being not as valuable this year in comparison to a normal year I could see the Patriots being aggressive to get a QB this year and then making a volume play early on in day 3.
For this exact reason I'd entertain that this is the year to either punt on the draft and try to get some 2022 draft capital or trade it up for one high probability selection
 
For this exact reason I'd entertain that this is the year to either punt on the draft and try to get some 2022 draft capital or trade it up for one high probability selection
One could easily argue the exact opposite of this. Assume that there are the same number of talented prospects in the draft this year as there are in the average year, but that identifying them is more difficult for everyone: your 2nd round pick is more likely to be a bust, but your 6th round pick is much more likely to be a star. On that basis, doesn't it make sense to have more picks and give yourself that much more of a chance to find diamonds in the rough?
 

nighthob

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No we don't. Players always come out of nowhere. It is March of 2021. We literally have zero idea if the 2022 draft in April(a mere 13 months from now) will produce a good or a bad crop of QBs.
They don't really come out of nowhere, you just might not know who they are. Burrow was a nationally ranked recruit that got stuck in a numbers game at his local national powerhouse football factory (Ohio State). He transferred to an SEC school where he started from the moment he arrived. He wasn't out of nowhere, except as a potential 1/1 pick. New England won't be picking 1/1 in 2022 and has no real path to getting there if some high school All American that isn't undersized (which most of the draft eligible QBs at the top of next year's class are) pops.

This year's class is sort of unique in that there appear to be four guys worth a first round pick with good to excellent size/athleticism packages and the arm talent to be NFL QBs. So if the braintrust sees one of those guys as the QB of the future, and they have a path to getting them, they should probably strike. Now it's absolutely the case that QBs might go 1-4 and the Patriots not have a path to getting into the top four to draft one of them, at which point they're on to plans B-Z.

The plan "We're going to hope that the next Aaron Rodgers slips to us in the '22 draft" isn't much of a plan if you're insisting that there's no way that New England can have any idea if any of the '22 QBs are any good. Now my area of expertise is basketball scouting obviously, but the same principles apply to football scouting. You can absolutely know who the guys are ahead of time if you're willing to put in the work and one guy popping to 1/1 doesn't really help the Patriots any (and the candidates to do so in '22 are still closer to Mac Jones than Trevor Lawrence).
 

nighthob

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Guys like Sam Howell (UNC), Desmond Ridder (Cincy), Kedon Slovis (USC), Spencer Rattler (OU), Malik Willis (Liberty by way of Auburn), and Carson Strong (Nevada) are already mocked in places in the first round. How they rank compared to guys like Lance and Fields and Jones isn't for me to say, but to say the cupboard is bare isn't really true.
I didn't say that the '22 cupboard was bare, I said that it wasn't very good compared to the present class. There are a lot of undersized guys in that pool. The top four this year form a sort of unique pool in that they check all the physical boxes you're normally looking for (arm talent, athleticism, size). Now whether New England values any of them enough to trade up for them or if there's a trade up path for one of them even if they do is another story.

I'm just pointing out that if they think one of those guys (aside from TL) is their QB of the future, now's the time to strike. Hoping that some guy in '22 pops just enough to convince them that he's their guy but not so much as to be a surefire top 8 pick is a Rube Goldbergian plan.
 

Shelterdog

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I'll bet anyone an internet dollat that some quarterback virtually no mocks have as a first rounder goes top-10 in the 2022 NFL draft. It happens almost every year and is particualrly likely to happen this year because covid limits our ability to scout current college players.

Hard to think that the plan should be to wait until 2022 for QB because we like that class relative to this year. Maybe we get there and BB decides he hates all the top 2022 guys.

The correct answer is the boring one; scout the 2021 QB really well--QB is the biggest short medium and long term need-and take one when you think the risk reward ratio is acceptable.
 

Marceline

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I agree with nighthob, and the more I think about this the more it's clear that the Patriots need to strike now.

Sure, we don't really *know* for sure what the 2022 draft class will look like. Likewise, we don't know where the Patriots' pick will end up, but I feel pretty good about thinking that it won't be as high as 15 as they are very likely to be a better team this year. So they have a worse chance at getting access to a worse crop of QBs (but sure, someone might come out of nowhere). Why take the chance that someone might come out of nowhere to fall into their lap at 20 rather than take the chance (say it's 40%, or 50% or whatever) that Fields or Lance is that guy?
 
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