Bursting Your Bubble: the 2020-21 NBA Gambling Thread

Jed Zeppelin · Apr 11, 2021

Came across this on a score app:

Possibly the most amazing part of this is that Bledsoe was ejected late in the 3rd Q of that game and scored his final bucket while the Pels were down by ~30 points. Not to mention he’d only hit 25 two other times, and not since January.

BigSoxFan · Apr 11, 2021

Jed Zeppelin said:
Came across this on a score app:
View attachment 40178

Possibly the most amazing part of this is that Bledsoe was ejected late in the 3rd Q of that game and scored his final bucket while the Pels were down by ~30 points. Not to mention he’d only hit 25 two other times, and not since January.

Ha, that’s the most random parlay ever but an awesome win.

HomeRunBaker · Apr 13, 2021

HomeRunBaker said:
Looks like two more Sunday afternoon Unders. 1H’s not even close. These numbers are now (finally) being pounded. ATL/Char opened 221.5 and bet down to 213.5 while Celtics game bet down 4 points as well.

Edit: Of what’s left tonight I like Miami -1 the best.

Coming off a Heat win here I’ll stick with a couple sides at my best tonight even though Totals are usually my NBA preference.

* Charlotte +1

* Portland -1.5

Jed Zeppelin · Apr 15, 2021

Betting against the Kings continues to be a strong play, especially in games where they are ostensibly evenly matched. Wizards -2 was never really in doubt last night and it was the same for the Pels a couple nights before (-1.5 maybe).

HomeRunBaker · Apr 15, 2021

Jed Zeppelin said:
Betting against the Kings continues to be a strong play, especially in games where they are ostensibly evenly matched. Wizards -2 was never really in doubt last night and it was the same for the Pels a couple nights before (-1.5 maybe).

Yeah the Kings have covered one game this month. Even though OKC is throwing out the SoSH All-Stars every night they still can’t make their number big enough.....only game they have covered this month was vs a Utah team who took the night off (and still beat Thunder by 10). Jazz have been good road fades this month too. On the other end of the spectrum it seems like the Knicks have covered every game since Valentine’s Day.

HomeRunBaker · Apr 15, 2021

Friendly reminder to those following these afternoon Under plays. Pacers and Jazz play tomorrow 3pm EST. Total currently at 235.

HomeRunBaker · Apr 16, 2021

HomeRunBaker said:
Friendly reminder to those following these afternoon Under plays. Pacers and Jazz play tomorrow 3pm EST. Total currently at 235.

Despite 15 pts in the final 71 seconds the 230 scored stays Under the final 233.5 number. Several more of these this weekend.

rymflaherty · Apr 17, 2021

Thanks for the heads up, DraftKings had a 100% NBA profit boost and I had a tough time finding anything that stood out to me on the slate, so I decided the afternoon under play seemed as good as any.
Not going to lie, it wasn’t looking good at the half there, so that was a pleasant surprise to have that pull through.

Turns out I did find an angle that wound up making money later in the day going with player over/unders in the OKC/Det game. Not sure if people just aren’t paying attention to those players/teams? But seemed to be some pretty low numbers, some even at + odds for guys that are playing 30ish minutes and being relied upon for those teams.

HomeRunBaker · Apr 17, 2021

rymflaherty said:
Thanks for the heads up, DraftKings had a 100% NBA profit boost and I had a tough time finding anything that stood out to me on the slate, so I decided the afternoon under play seemed as good as any.
Not going to lie, it wasn’t looking good at the half there, so that was a pleasant surprise to have that pull through.

Turns out I did find an angle that wound up making money later in the day going with player over/unders in the OKC/Det game. Not sure if people just aren’t paying attention to those players/teams? But seemed to be some pretty low numbers, some even at + odds for guys that are playing 30ish minutes and being relied upon for those teams.

Good find. The two years I’ve played DFS post-ASG I had success utilizing these cheap players getting minutes on awful teams. It’s the old “Somebody out there has to (insert) score/rebound/pass/etc.” I was playing one lineup for peanuts and was a 2-pt hoop away from a late night game (Blazers) going to OT from wining one for $20k. I’ve just never been a Fantasy guy to put the time into this.

Marceline · Apr 17, 2021

HomeRunBaker said:
Good find. The two years I’ve played DFS post-ASG I had success utilizing these cheap players getting minutes on awful teams. It’s the old “Somebody out there has to (insert) score/rebound/pass/etc.” I was playing one lineup for peanuts and was a 2-pt hoop away from a late night game (Blazers) going to OT from wining one for $20k. I’ve just never been a Fantasy guy to put the time into this.

Yeah, a lot of those props are very profitable as the player prop market is really inefficient.

Also you can make some money on 2nd string players that can score or rebound getting more minutes if a starter gets hurt since they don't usually adjust the lines properly.

HomeRunBaker · Apr 17, 2021

Joe Sixpack said:
Yeah, a lot of those props are very profitable as the player prop market is really inefficient.

Also you can make some money on 2nd string players that can score or rebound getting more minutes if a starter gets hurt since they don't usually adjust the lines properly.

Not to make this story time but I remember stacking the Blazers in final game of night when Lillard was out and they dressed I believe 8 players. They may not have had CJ either. I just remember having Aminu, Harkless, Crabbe and Meyers Leonard stacked and they all had to play 40 min that night. A totally mispriced market. They were all cheap so I had already earned a ton of points from stars in earlier games. Game was wide open so every possession was resulting in someone or multiple players earning me points. Game went to OT and I shot up the standings then I needed the second OT to essentially lock up the win. My recall may be off a little but it was crazy since I was messing around that week investing maybe only $100-200 a night in daily fantasy.

HomeRunBaker · Apr 17, 2021

Played Phoenix 2H -11.5

Down 19 vs Spurs who are on 5th game in 7 nights in 5 cities. I expect a run and close finish.

Marceline · Apr 23, 2021

Pretty tough blow to the Heat division bet tonight.

HomeRunBaker · Apr 23, 2021

Joe Sixpack said:
Pretty tough blow to the Heat division bet tonight.

I was able to hedge a little with Hawks +6.5 at home which was such a ridiculous number that I’m playing regardless of division bet then a sprinkle on +225 ML that covered about 20% of my prepared loss on the future.

The play on a team in their first game without star due to injury in this league has to be close to as gold a spot as their is in sports betting. You get triple value.....motivated team stepping up, letdown from opponent that opponents star is out, and the usual overreaction in the betting market.

HomeRunBaker · Apr 24, 2021

Early games today. Aside from my standard overnight Unders which virtually assures closing line value these days I have a really strong one. What better way to disrupt a ridiculous winning stretch and newfound popularity than playing an early Saturday afternoon game, right? Ideal spot for the Knicks ro

* Raptors Pk. Game goes at 1pm. Probably my strongest side play in awhile.

HomeRunBaker · May 1, 2021

Trying to get back on track in this thread tonight.

* Under 218 Memphis/Orlando
(109-98 Grizz)

* I don’t have access through my locals to many props but if you can get anything on Kris Dunn Overs (either Pts or PRA) this could be some great value. He’s been fascinatingly awful in his 3 games back (0-5, 1-6, 0-0 with a ton of PF) but he’s facing his old team in the Bulls tonight and there is always some special motivation to show people what they had. Coaching staffs tend to recognize this and give opportunities in these type of games. On top of that Reddish is out with Bogdanovich and Huerter listed as questionable so he should see regular 2nd unit minutes.

HomeRunBaker · May 12, 2021

Let’s shake off these last few posts of picks and begin to get warm for the play-in games where I already have some angles ready. Playoffs should be good this year per usual.

The dog days of this season may be over but I like the dogs to be barking tonight.

* Cavaliers +7 (over Boston.....I got 8 but line already crashing)

* Pelicans +8 (over Dallas)

* Wizards +6.5 (over Atlanta)

* Rockets +13 (over Lakers)

ElUno20 · May 12, 2021

We need h town to make this a 3-1 night. I bought up to +10 but man they look like an AAU team out there. May not be enough

HomeRunBaker · May 12, 2021

ElUno20 said:
We need h town to make this a 3-1 night. I bought up to +10 but man they look like an AAU team out there. May not be enough

I think they are dressing 8 guys tonight with one not expected to play. I got this at 13 this morning before the AD and LeBron public announcement that they wouldn’t play. Not sure why this wasn’t baked in but oh well. I almost played the 5-pt middle but stuck w original play. Def a hold your nose type of wager.

Damn Wizards had two chances to keep my Miami division bet alive it will take a miracle just to get a push now with their remaining schedules.

HomeRunBaker · May 12, 2021

I mentioned some good play-in angles earlier. I’m loving all this wide open play lately around the league that is inflating these totals. I don’t think these numbers will be properly adjusted in the play-in games (or in the playoffs for that matter) and will be jumping all over these Unders on the overnights before they are moved. And they will get moved down if they open where I think they will. Love NBA playoff action!

HomeRunBaker · May 13, 2021

Lakers are so fired up for this game their transition defense is making Kelly Olynyk look like a pale Russell Westbrook.

ElUno20 · May 13, 2021

Thanks for the tips, HRB. Made some scratch last night.

Marceline · May 13, 2021

HomeRunBaker said:
Damn Wizards had two chances to keep my Miami division bet alive it will take a miracle just to get a push now with their remaining schedules.

Would it push or would Atlanta win on the tiebreaker?

HomeRunBaker · May 13, 2021

Joe Sixpack said:
Would it push or would Atlanta win on the tiebreaker?

It would be the team that the NBA seems the winner so yes if they tie it will be Atlanta. I had forgotten about the rule. The Heat layed an egg in their H2H last month when the Hawks were without Trae and Capela. This game will likely have determined the winner.

Marceline · May 13, 2021

HomeRunBaker said:
It would be the team that the NBA seems the winner so yes if they tie it will be Atlanta. I had forgotten about the rule. The Heat layed an egg in their H2H last month when the Hawks were without Trae and Capela. This game will likely have determined the winner.

Yeah, the h2h loss was essentially a 3 game swing due to it also defining the tiebreaker.

HomeRunBaker · May 13, 2021

Joe Sixpack said:
Yeah, the h2h loss was essentially a 3 game swing due to it also defining the tiebreaker.

Heat are peaking right now too. Decent chance they win out and would need Hawks to lose to Orlando or Houston. I’m so overdue for some RunGood in these NBA season props. Two years ago I went something like 0-7 in toss up games that I needed down the stretch that took me from good winner to tiny winner. Last year I was on way to pretty much sweeping the board until Covid voided most of my plays.

djbayko · May 14, 2021

For everyone in here who bet the Suns division, tonight's 4th quarter was a huge heart attack win:

Saric missed 3 of 4 FTs in final1:04 to nearly lose the game.
Booker fucking double dribbled, down by 1, on a fast break, with only 5.6 seconds left. Yes, you saw that correctly. Double. Dribbled.
Suns fouled on inbound and Covington missed both FTs.
Suns timeout to advance ball with 4.4 seconds left.
Soft foul called on Blazers, putting Booker at the line to redeem himself with 2 FTs.
Oh, and the Blazers challenged the foul, so they couldn't advance the ball with 2.4 seconds left after Booker's made FTs.

Suns go from potentially being in bad shape for the division (because Clippers own the tie breaker) to being in pretty good shape. They only need 1 of 2 from the Spurs OR the Clippers to be upset by the Thunder or Rockets.

HomeRunBaker · May 14, 2021

djbayko said:
For everyone in here who bet the Suns division, tonight's 4th quarter was a huge heart attack win:

Saric missed 3 of 4 FTs in last couple of minutes to nearly lose the game.

Booker fucking double dribbled, down by 1, on a fast break, with only 5.6 seconds left. Yes, you saw that correctly. Double. Dribbled.

Suns fouled on inbound and Blazers missed both FTs.

Suns timeout to advance ball with 4.4 seconds left.

Soft foul called on Blazers, putting Booker at the line to redeem himself with 2 FTs.

Oh, and the Blazers challenged the foul, so they couldn't advance the ball with 2.4 seconds left after Booker's made FTs.

Suns go from potentially being in bad shape for the division (because Clippers own the tie breaker) to being in pretty good shape. They only need 1 of 2 from the Spurs OR the Clippers to be upset by the Thunder or Rockets.

I purposely watched Dynasty with the wife tonight bc I have Phoenix at good plus money for the division.......but played Portland +5.5 this morning in what I felt was a great spot for them. Followed the final minute on Gamecast and had to explain to the wife why I was laughing at nearly every play by play update (two Covington missed FTs, the double dribble just looked funny reading it, etc)......then of course the nut ending.

djbayko · May 15, 2021

HomeRunBaker said:
I purposely watched Dynasty with the wife tonight bc I have Phoenix at good plus money for the division.......but played Portland +5.5 this morning in what I felt was a great spot for them. Followed the final minute on Gamecast and had to explain to the wife why I was laughing at nearly every play by play update (two Covington missed FTs, the double dribble just looked funny reading it, etc)......then of course the nut ending.

Clippers upset by the Rockets. Suns clinch division. Everyone here who bet it at the AS break is a winner!

HomeRunBaker · May 15, 2021

djbayko said:
Clippers upset by the Rockets. Suns clinch division. Everyone here who bet it at the AS break is a winner!

Yup the Clippers sat everyone to lose and avoid the Lakers in the play-in game. This division played out perfectly with our Suns wager.

BigSoxFan · May 16, 2021

Paging HRB...

What are we doing today? Lots of complicated scenarios.

I started it off with a Knicks/Wiz ML parlay.

HomeRunBaker · May 16, 2021

BigSoxFan said:
Paging HRB...

What are we doing today? Lots of complicated scenarios.

I started it off with a Knicks/Wiz ML parlay.

Played Houston +10.5 tonight assuming a Knicks win sends the Hawks entire rotation to the bench and I’ll get maybe 3-4 points of value. Also sprinkled some on a small parlay with HOU/NY as they are somewhat correlated (Knicks still have spread to cover).

Edit: One thing to watch out for when teams announce they are sitting multiple starters is the reaction of the Total. It will be moved manually on the rumor/news and not by money as books prepare for the impending blind overreaction toward the Under. Depending on team/personnel, the game could actually result in a faster pace, less defense, more 3-pt shooting, etc.

BigSoxFan · May 16, 2021

HomeRunBaker said:
Played Houston +10.5 tonight assuming a Knicks win sends the Hawks entire rotation to the bench and I’ll get maybe 3-4 points of value. Also sprinkled some on a small parlay with HOU/NY as they are somewhat correlated (Knicks still have spread to cover).

Good call. Looks like Atlanta wins the tiebreaker with Miami as well.

Sam Ray Not · May 16, 2021

What’s the word on Denver and the Clips today? Assuming both are tanking?

HomeRunBaker · May 16, 2021

BigSoxFan said:
Good call. Looks like Atlanta wins the tiebreaker with Miami as well.

Atlanta number already down to 7.5

HomeRunBaker · May 16, 2021

BigSoxFan said:
Good call. Looks like Atlanta wins the tiebreaker with Miami as well.

Played Atlanta -8 during timeout when Celtics/Knicks were a one possession game hedging on a Celtics win. Worse case I have a 2.5 pt middle

BigSoxFan · May 16, 2021

HomeRunBaker said:
Played Atlanta -8 during timeout when Celtics/Knicks were a one possession game hedging on a Celtics win. Worse case I have a 2.5 pt middle

Nice. The Wiz gave me a heart attack. Surprised they pulled it out.

rymflaherty · May 16, 2021

Realize this isn’t the best place for this admission, but I hate the Celtics so much.
I don’t think there’s any team, any sport, that has cost me more money this year.
Whether for or against them the result is the opposite of what my logic would dictate.

I had the Knicks as the tent pole in some 7 point teasers today (I know those are probably dumb bets, but I’ve found them to be profitable)...can’t believe the Knicks couldn’t cover 5 points against Boston playing a meaningless game and back to back road games.
Sorry, Celtics overachieving yesterday cost me as well, figured I’d try to vent somewhere in hopes of some catharsis.

HomeRunBaker · May 16, 2021

On Grizz +3 here. I don’t care if Steph is 0-7 I am petrified whenever he rises up. Someone please tell me that streak shooting exists so I don’t get grey hairs by the end of this game.

BigSoxFan · May 16, 2021

rymflaherty said:
Realize this isn’t the best place for this admission, but I hate the Celtics so much.
I don’t think there’s any team, any sport, that has cost me more money this year.
Whether for or against them the result is the opposite of what my logic would dictate.

I had the Knicks as the tent pole in some 7 point teasers today (I know those are probably dumb bets, but I’ve found them to be profitable)...can’t believe the Knicks couldn’t cover 5 points against Boston playing a meaningless game and back to back road games.
Sorry, Celtics overachieving yesterday cost me as well, figured I’d try to vent somewhere in hopes of some catharsis.

Funny you say that. My buddy in San Antonio has lost about 10 parlays this year because of the Celtics. Like, he had 5 out of 6 right type bets. Probably talking 15-20k in winnings ruined by the Celtics.

HomeRunBaker · May 16, 2021

HomeRunBaker said:
Played Houston +10.5 tonight assuming a Knicks win sends the Hawks entire rotation to the bench and I’ll get maybe 3-4 points of value. Also sprinkled some on a small parlay with HOU/NY as they are somewhat correlated (Knicks still have spread to cover).

Edit: One thing to watch out for when teams announce they are sitting multiple starters is the reaction of the Total. It will be moved manually on the rumor/news and not by money as books prepare for the impending blind overreaction toward the Under. Depending on team/personnel, the game could actually result in a faster pace, less defense, more 3-pt shooting, etc.

Today’s Phoenix/San Antonio game was perfect example of this. Total adjusted from 227 to 220.5 once Paul and Booker announced Out......teams combined for 244 in a track meet.

Paul being out HELPS the Over which casual fans don’t recognize as he’s a “half court run your stuff” guy which being an exceptional defender on the other end.

HomeRunBaker · May 16, 2021

Not sure if numbers will come out tonight for Tuesdays games (probably not) but I’m guessing the Totals will be inflated per usual in the playoffs but these aren’t your typical G1’s. We see how pace slows and defense picks up even more in an elimination game which is what these games will be.

Heading home now to do numbers and looking to smash Under on anything that does come out tonight before it moves. I’m thinking the edge in these games could be huge but I’ll update later.

BigSoxFan · May 16, 2021

HomeRunBaker said:
Not sure if numbers will come out tonight for Tuesdays games (probably not) but I’m guessing the Totals will be inflated per usual in the playoffs but these aren’t your typical G1’s. We see how pace slows and defense picks up even more in an elimination game which is what these games will be.

Heading home now to do numbers and looking to smash Under on anything that does come out tonight before it moves. I’m thinking the edge in these games could be huge but I’ll update later.

Take us to the promised land, HRB

HomeRunBaker · May 16, 2021

BigSoxFan said:
Take us to the promised land, HRB

It’s even better than I dreamed. Looks like zero adjustment from the reg season at BetOnline which makes me wonder what is going on. Like mouth hanging open drooling wondering if this is real.

Hornets/Pacers are 229.....none of their three meetings this year came within 6 of that number.

Celtics/Wizards 235.....none of the three games this year came within 11 points.

So not only do we have the expected pace decrease and defensive bump......but we seem to have teams who matchup well defensively. One word of caution in the C’s is that one of those three games was with our “Twin Tower” lineup earlier in the year along with Javonte Green in the starting lineup playing 33 min......and another was a 1pm Sunday start that combined for 195. The other was still at 223 in an open reg season game.

Ok the fun is only beginning.

BigSoxFan · May 16, 2021

Line just moved a point in Boston’s direction on DK. Now -2.

HomeRunBaker · May 16, 2021

BigSoxFan said:
Line just moved a point in Boston’s direction on DK. Now -2.

I see -3 and the total already down to 234.5 on one refresh. Hopefully at least one of my outs posted these tonight.

Edit: Nothing worse than logging on and clicking “Basketball”......and the only thing that pops up is “EuroLeague Futures.” Sigh.

Edit2: Now that markets have opened its been bet back down to -1 and I even see one Pk.

HomeRunBaker · May 17, 2021

Totals down to 228 and 233. If you’re going to play these Unders don’t wait......get it in ASAP. The numbers will close lower possibly significantly lower.

shawnrbu · May 18, 2021

Any good books allow series winner parlay?

HomeRunBaker · May 18, 2021

Me: Total is priced as if it’s a mid-January game.

Also Me: Defense is being played as if it’s a mid-January game.

Such a shame as the pace is as expected.

Edit: Added some Under 231 bc I’m a glutton. Stab a knife in me Dougie 3!

HomeRunBaker · May 18, 2021

Easiest 1H Under (115.5) EVAH!!!

Bursting Your Bubble: the 2020-21 NBA Gambling Thread

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