Cade to Black: 2021 NBA Draft Thread

benhogan

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Let me echo HRB here, he's near the top of my Future Elite 3&D board. He's switchable 1-3 and is strong enough to hold his own against larger guys. He could even play the 1 alongside someone like LeBron, Luka, or Cade.
are you working up a shortlist @ #45 or focused on the Rockets?
 

nighthob

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I'm too anxious/depressed that the Rockets are about to get generationally fucked (the '22 draft won't be very good and Houston doesn't really control its draft after that thanks to the fucking Westbrook trade) to look at the top of the draft. Of course, I'll cheer up if they win the lottery.

I have a short list for #45 so far, with Nix, Duke, Grimes, Marcus Bagley, and Johnny Juzang at the top of my wish list for the pick.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I have never seen Nix play but I see one place has his comp as Andre Miller, who old time SoSHers may remember is one of my All-Time favorite players. Einstein IQ.
 

lovegtm

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I'm too anxious/depressed that the Rockets are about to get generationally fucked (the '22 draft won't be very good and Houston doesn't really control its draft after that thanks to the fucking Westbrook trade) to look at the top of the draft. Of course, I'll cheer up if they win the lottery.

I have a short list for #45 so far, with Nix, Duke, Grimes, Marcus Bagley, and Johnny Juzang at the top of my wish list for the pick.
I re-looked at the Westbrook trade, since the details are a bit weird. It's not as horrific as I previously thought, now that everything has shaken out.
  • Rockets 2024 first-round draft picks (protected 1 – 4)
  • Rockets 2026 first-round draft picks (protected 1 – 4)
  • Option to swap first-round 2021 draft pick with Rockets (protected 1-4)
  • Option to swap first-round 2025 pick with Rockets (protected 1-10).
The Thunder are 4th in the lottery standings, so the absolute worst case for Houston is that they drop to 5th and OKC drops to 8th. That's not great, but it's probably worth the 10-15th pick or so, and that's the worst case.

You'd expect OKC to be good by 2025, but Houston could be decent again too.

The 2024 and 2026 picks suck, but the Rockets get 2022 and 2023 bites at the apple, and have the pick from Washington and the picks from Brooklyn to ease the "can't acquire anybody because don't control future drafts" pain.

Basically the Rockets get to tank 3 straight years including this one, (4-5 if necessary and with some luck) and keep the picks. Then after that, they still have plenty of draft capital to move, particularly if Brooklyn falls off at all, which is looking more and more possible.

It was an awful trade, but this isn't mid 2010s Brooklyn by any stretch. The Rockets retain their ability to tank all the way through, and still have picks to deal for players if they hit on some talent early.

They could improve the situation even further by moving their best contracts/players like Wood, since they're unlikely to be able to re-sign him in 2023 as a still-bad team.
 

nighthob

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This year Houston gets #18 unless the pick is 1-4 (they get the lowest of the Miami, OKC, or Houston picks). It didn’t look bad earlier when Miami was in the lottery and Houston might have been able to make a gamble in the 10-12 range. But the Heat made the playoffs so Houston has a 48% chance of getting stuck with #18.

Losing the pick this year’s a killer. And it means the mid 20s squad is going to suck with the real chance that the picks end up in OKC anyway. They’re a coin flip away from being the mid teens Nets, with no Demon Kyzuzu in the NBA to bring them a top five player and a superteam (which they really can’t do until they’re out from under Wall’s deal anyway). As a Rockets’ fan (my first basketball was a San Diego Rockets ball) it’s depressing. Until the lottery drawing I’m sitting on edge.
 

lovegtm

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This year Houston gets #18 unless the pick is 1-4 (they get the lowest of the Miami, OKC, or Houston picks). It didn’t look bad earlier when Miami was in the lottery and Houston might have been able to make a gamble in the 10-12 range. But the Heat made the playoffs so Houston has a 48% chance of getting stuck with #18.

Losing the pick this year’s a killer. And it means the mid 20s squad is going to suck with the real chance that the picks end up in OKC anyway. They’re a coin flip away from being the mid teens Nets, with no Demon Kyzuzu in the NBA to bring them a top five player and a superteam (which they really can’t do until they’re out from under Wall’s deal anyway). As a Rockets’ fan (my first basketball was a San Diego Rockets ball) it’s depressing. Until the lottery drawing I’m sitting on edge.
Didn't realize they had made it into the worst of those 3 picks. That's really gross. I said it at the time of the Westbrook deal, but it really felt like there was a serious principal-agent problem at the end of the Morey era. He yolo'd away all those picks and then fell right into a better job. Billy King needs to ask him for lessons.

That said, the Rockets situation is still a ton better than that of those Nets. Having the picks all be top-4 protected would have really altered that Nets deal, and the Rockets do have a decent number of first rounders courtesy of the Harden deal. In the Nets case, Deron Williams blew up immediately and they were never able to get value back.
 

Apisith

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This year Houston gets #18 unless the pick is 1-4 (they get the lowest of the Miami, OKC, or Houston picks). It didn’t look bad earlier when Miami was in the lottery and Houston might have been able to make a gamble in the 10-12 range. But the Heat made the playoffs so Houston has a 48% chance of getting stuck with #18.

Losing the pick this year’s a killer. And it means the mid 20s squad is going to suck with the real chance that the picks end up in OKC anyway. They’re a coin flip away from being the mid teens Nets, with no Demon Kyzuzu in the NBA to bring them a top five player and a superteam (which they really can’t do until they’re out from under Wall’s deal anyway). As a Rockets’ fan (my first basketball was a San Diego Rockets ball) it’s depressing. Until the lottery drawing I’m sitting on edge.
If we don't get get 1-4 this year, we are going to suck for years to come. It's going to be bad. We should be looking to trade Wood for someone like Wiseman. Maybe the Warriors want to make a run when Klay is back. We need lots of high-ceiling players. It would be pretty awesome to have Wiseman paired with Cade, we could be really good in 3 years.

Dream scenario: Cade for #1, Wood goes to the Warriors for Wiseman. We suck and get another top pick in 2022. Get someone with a high-ceiling to pair with Wiseman and Cade. Be good by 2025, and trade the Nets picks then.
 

nighthob

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Didn't realize they had made it into the worst of those 3 picks. That's really gross. I said it at the time of the Westbrook deal, but it really felt like there was a serious principal-agent problem at the end of the Morey era. He yolo'd away all those picks and then fell right into a better job. Billy King needs to ask him for lessons.
I think what really pissed off the ownership is that he talked them into releasing him from his contract on the grounds that he was taking time off from the NBA, and then immediately took the same job with another team. So he was jumping the ship that he’d sunk in the first place. Leading to the Harden debacle where they demanded a real return from Philly for Harden while being otherwise willing to let him go for pennies on the dollar.

That said, the Rockets situation is still a ton better than that of those Nets. Having the picks all be top-4 protected would have really altered that Nets deal, and the Rockets do have a decent number of first rounders courtesy of the Harden deal. In the Nets case, Deron Williams blew up immediately and they were never able to get value back.
But you usually don’t win the lottery so those mid decade picks are likely going to be mid lottery picks that OKC is going to be able to use to land a star player. Unless Houston wins the #1 pick. Because CC Rider changes the franchise’s fortunes immediately. Aside from that they can hope to get something good for Wood. But really they’d be left praying that Brooklyn imploded mid decade and they got a serious talent infusion in the ‘25-‘27 drafts.
 

Sam Ray Not

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Until the lottery drawing I’m sitting on edge.
Same here. Depending on the whims of the ping pong balls, the Warriors could end up tomorrow with either the #1 and #4 picks or just the #14. Most likely somewhere in between — say #8 and #14. But even setting aside the 2.4% longshot of the Ws’ own pick hitting lotto, the difference between snagging the #4 pick in a nominal four player draft (9.6%) and the pick not conveying till next season (27.6%) — when the Warriors core will be a year older, and the ascendant Wolves could be good — is enormous.

Absolutely huge day in the association tomorrow, for a ton of franchises.
 

nighthob

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Yeah, but unlike the Warriors, Houston could be wiped out for the remainder of the decade on draft lottery night, They lose that pick all they have left is their pick in a pretty awful draft and the possibility of a high pick in ‘23 to build around (meaning that we’re talking ‘27 or ‘28 before they start to recover from the Morey years).
 

Cellar-Door

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Yeah, but unlike the Warriors, Houston could be wiped out for the remainder of the decade on draft lottery night, They lose that pick all they have left is their pick in a pretty awful draft and the possibility of a high pick in ‘23 to build around (meaning that we’re talking ‘27 or ‘28 before they start to recover from the Morey years).
The Morey years were just fine. The Fertita years are going to cripple that franchise, but that's how it always goes when you have a terrible owner.
 

EL Jeffe

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I have a short list for #45 so far, with Nix, Duke, Grimes, Marcus Bagley, and Johnny Juzang at the top of my wish list for the pick.
I like this list. Duke would probably be my favorite for 45, but Bagley and Juzang would also make a lot of sense. Some other 3&D wings I like in that range are Kessler Edwards and Herbert Jones. Kessler has nice size with a projectable frame; stylistically he reminds me of like a poor man's Danny Granger. He's waaay more likely to wash out than hit Granger's level, obviously, but he's about 6'8 and can shoot it. He looks like he'll be able to defend as well. Jones is a little smaller but more athletic and a higher overall skill level (court vision, playmaking, and passing). Kessler is a junior and Jones is a senior, so they aren't as shiny and new as some of the other wings. But they both look like reasonable bets to be rotational players.
 

nighthob

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The Morey years were just fine. The Fertita years are going to cripple that franchise, but that's how it always goes when you have a terrible owner.
I know that Morey has had his press lackeys spreading the idea that the owner made a bunch of bad trades without his permission, but that’s not how trades happen in the NBA. He made the Westbrook trade and got the owner to sign off on it. And the Rockets are screwed as a result.

Does it suck to have your second favorite team owned by a hospitalities billionaire in the middle of a global pandemic? Yes. But it’s not like covid19 came out of some Rainforest Cafe kitchen when they made a bad batch of salmon mousse. There’s really not a lot you can do about these things. Just as there wasn’t a lot Houston could do after surrendering their future drafts for Westbrook after the final break in the Harden/CP3 relationship.
 

Cellar-Door

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I know that Morey has had his press lackeys spreading the idea that the owner made a bunch of bad trades without his permission, but that’s not how trades happen in the NBA. He made the Westbrook trade and got the owner to sign off on it. And the Rockets are screwed as a result.

Does it suck to have your second favorite team owned by a hospitalities billionaire in the middle of a global pandemic? Yes. But it’s not like covid19 came out of some Rainforest Cafe kitchen when they made a bad batch of salmon mousse. There’s really not a lot you can do about these things. Just as there wasn’t a lot Houston could do after surrendering their future drafts for Westbrook after the final break in the Harden/CP3 relationship.
I mean, maybe Fertitta is lying, but he went on the radio and basically said he told basketball ops to do the deal when they weren't all in on it. At a certain point I don't know how you place the blame for a terrible trade on the GM if the owner is saying he was the one who made it happen
 

Smokey Joe

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I have a short list for #45 so far, with Nix, Duke, Grimes, Marcus Bagley, and Johnny Juzang at the top of my wish list for the pick.
I can’t help thinking that Marcus Bagley is about 6’ 1”, 220-230, strong, deceptively quick, a good passer but a poor shooter and ferocious on defense.

it’s just a feeling.
 

nighthob

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I mean, maybe Fertitta is lying, but he went on the radio and basically said he told basketball ops to do the deal when they weren't all in on it. At a certain point I don't know how you place the blame for a terrible trade on the GM if the owner is saying he was the one who made it happen
Were Harden and Paul lying about their problems too? And was Morey lying a couple of years ago when he was taking a victory lap for adding RWB?
 
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nighthob

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I can’t help thinking that Marcus Bagley is about 6’ 1”, 220-230, strong, deceptively quick, a good passer but a poor shooter and ferocious on defense.

it’s just a feeling.
I’m certain that he’s not his listed height (6’7”), but I was thinking he was more like 6’4”/6’5”. Maybe Nix is who you’re thinking of? Him I could see being 6’2” or so. I think Nix is perfect as a Marcus replacement, but his shot’s definitely worse.
 

Cellar-Door

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Were Harden and Paul lying about their problems too? And was Morey lying a couple of years ago when he was taking a victory lap for adding RWB?
I mean, Paul and Harden didn't work out, but that was a good move. As to Morey victory lap... once the deal is done what is he supposed to do say "Owner made me make the deal, I wouldn't have given up that much"? His job is to sell what he has.
I don't think Morey was great, but he had a crap situation with a bad owner, and a superstar pulling strings. He did what he could. Also... he's not the one who dumped Harden for scraps as soon as Harden was unhappy, then turned those scraps into worse scraps.

Morey failed, and had 1 bad trade in the mix which was partly his fault, but also if we believe the owner, at least partly the owner's fault. His successors then screwed things up worse.
 

nighthob

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You seemingly have no problem believing that everyone else is lying here. But I'm betting that part of that is a predisposition to dislike Houston's owner (and as a Rockets fan I can tell you we've had terrible owners for a while, I'm not the only one that was pissed that Beyonce/Jay-Z's group got outbid). But in the grand scheme of things owners don't negotiate trades. The front offices do. So that's where it started, with the guy running the front office, not the guy running Landry's. Now please stop polluting our beautiful draft thread with Morey's self-serving claptrap;
 

Cellar-Door

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You seemingly have no problem believing that everyone else is lying here. But I'm betting that part of that is a predisposition to dislike Houston's owner (and as a Rockets fan I can tell you we've had terrible owners for a while, I'm not the only one that was pissed that Beyonce/Jay-Z's group got outbid). But in the grand scheme of things owners don't negotiate trades. The front offices do. So that's where it started, with the guy running the front office, not the guy running Landry's. Now please stop polluting our beautiful draft thread with Morey's self-serving claptrap;
I didn't say anyone was lying. I said that the owner came out after the trade and said his basketball ops guys were wavering on it and he pushed it through. I said that if you want to put all the blame on Morey you have to assume the owner lied about that. Front offices do negotiate trades, but when owners get involved they can make the push one way or the other, and once you get into a decent depth on the discussion on a huge star you're going to loop the owner in unless he's VERY hands off. Fertitta's version of things suggests that they came to him and said... OKC is interested in a Westbrook/Paul swap, here's the outline but we aren't sure of the value with the picks, and he said "get it done, give them the picks"
 

EL Jeffe

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I’m certain that he’s not his listed height (6’7”), but I was thinking he was more like 6’4”/6’5”. Maybe Nix is who you’re thinking of? Him I could see being 6’2” or so. I think Nix is perfect as a Marcus replacement, but his shot’s definitely worse.
I think it was a John Bagley joke?

Nix is a weird evaluation. He subscribes to the Body by James Harden fitness plan. But he can pass and has a nice feel for the game...unfortunately he can't shoot and has zero explosiveness. Just a weird mix of skills and physical attributes and limitations.
 

nighthob

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I like this list. Duke would probably be my favorite for 45, but Bagley and Juzang would also make a lot of sense. Some other 3&D wings I like in that range are Kessler Edwards and Herbert Jones. Kessler has nice size with a projectable frame; stylistically he reminds me of like a poor man's Danny Granger. He's waaay more likely to wash out than hit Granger's level, obviously, but he's about 6'8 and can shoot it. He looks like he'll be able to defend as well. Jones is a little smaller but more athletic and a higher overall skill level (court vision, playmaking, and passing). Kessler is a junior and Jones is a senior, so they aren't as shiny and new as some of the other wings. But they both look like reasonable bets to be rotational players.
Herbert Jones is on my UDFA watchlist this year. I like him more defensively than offensively. On defense he closes out shooters ferociously, which is a major plus. I dislike the jumper. The release isn't clean, way too much guide hand action on the shot. Plus the release point looks awkward. He also has that hitch from poor footwork on the jumper. But defensively he's good enough that he'd be the near the top of my Boston (or Houston) wishlist for a two way deal. But I'd be hesitant to using #45 on him.

I like Edwards a lot more, he's the sort of big wing that they could use, and I think that his jumper is in much better shape than Jones's. He has poor footwork (seen in the hitch at the top of the motion, it's because his shot isn't in synch with the jump) on the jumper and the release is a touch low, but those are things that are easier to correct than Jones, who I think needs a full rebuild (I mean look at Jones's free throw shots, they're stomach churning).
 

nighthob

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Nix is a weird evaluation. He subscribes to the Body by James Harden fitness plan. But he can pass and has a nice feel for the game...unfortunately he can't shoot and has zero explosiveness. Just a weird mix of skills and physical attributes and limitations.
Nix is also over-confidant in his passing, that's one hesitation I have with him. It leads him to make some seriously high risk passes that don't work out. He's definitely high risk/high reward. And almost certainly washes out. But good Nix is a heckuva player. If you could get more of that guy he's the long term Marcus replacement because he plays defense with the same sort of reckless abandon.
 

benhogan

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I like this list. Duke would probably be my favorite for 45, but Bagley and Juzang would also make a lot of sense. Some other 3&D wings I like in that range are Kessler Edwards and Herbert Jones. Kessler has nice size with a projectable frame; stylistically he reminds me of like a poor man's Danny Granger. He's waaay more likely to wash out than hit Granger's level, obviously, but he's about 6'8 and can shoot it. He looks like he'll be able to defend as well. Jones is a little smaller but more athletic and a higher overall skill level (court vision, playmaking, and passing). Kessler is a junior and Jones is a senior, so they aren't as shiny and new as some of the other wings. But they both look like reasonable bets to be rotational players.
You need to watch this guy. Good handle, creates his own shot, can shoot. 6'7.75" wingspan. Score first at Houston. a lock-down defender.

a McDonald's All-American went to Kansas, then transferred to Houston Cougars

http://www.tankathon.com/players/quentin-grimes
 

benhogan

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I didn't say anyone was lying. I said that the owner came out after the trade and said his basketball ops guys were wavering on it and he pushed it through. I said that if you want to put all the blame on Morey you have to assume the owner lied about that. Front offices do negotiate trades, but when owners get involved they can make the push one way or the other, and once you get into a decent depth on the discussion on a huge star you're going to loop the owner in unless he's VERY hands off. Fertitta's version of things suggests that they came to him and said... OKC is interested in a Westbrook/Paul swap, here's the outline but we aren't sure of the value with the picks, and he said "get it done, give them the picks"
I can't imagine Fertitta Tillman is twisting his moustache hatching NBA trade ideas. He's busy trying to keep the hourly pay down for all the single mom waitresses while upping his slots income from senior citizens cashing their Social Security checks. So as much as I'd like to pin the trade on the Jackass, it's really Morey's deal.

I recall Wyc saying that Danny came to him with the PP-KG/Nets trade and Wyc asked for 2 more pick swaps (not sure Danny confirmed this), one of these swaps led to Tatum. That trade has always been seen as an Ainge deal and not a Wyc trade. Sports owners have a tendency to overestimate their involvement in trades & player evaluation.

https://www.theringer.com/2018/5/11/17346416/bill-simmons-podcast-celtics-owner-wyc-grousbeck-brooklyn-trade
 
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EL Jeffe

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You need to watch this guy. Good handle, creates his own shot, can shoot. 6'7.75" wingspan. Score first at Houston. a lock-down defender.

a McDonald's All-American went to Kansas, then transferred to Houston Cougars

http://www.tankathon.com/players/quentin-grimes
I like Grimes, he's sort of Nesmith Lite. I'd just rather they went with either a bigger wing or someone who can play point. But I can definitely see Grimes being a useful floor spacer.
 

Smokey Joe

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I think it was a John Bagley joke?

Nix is a weird evaluation. He subscribes to the Body by James Harden fitness plan. But he can pass and has a nice feel for the game...unfortunately he can't shoot and has zero explosiveness. Just a weird mix of skills and physical attributes and limitations.
Yes, it’s a combination of Marcus Smart and John Bagley. I think an NBA drinking game could be crafted out of putting two names together from previous players and trying to describe the result.
 

chilidawg

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Jonathan Wasserman with the latest pre- draft combine buzz, plus an updated top 50 on the eve of lotto day.
Nice piece. I like a guy who thinks Kispert belongs at the end of the first round.

Is it really a deep draft if he says this about the 13th ranked guy "But he'll be difficult to play full-time minutes as a ball-dominant, turnover-prone, inefficient scorer, limited shooter and negative defender."?
 

Cellar-Door

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He has Ayo Dosunmu at 47. I figured he would be gone by 45, but if he’s on the board he would be a great pic for the Celtics
I think that just means he's super-low on him.
I haven't seen a single mock with him falling out of the 1st,
 

EL Jeffe

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JT Thor might be my new binkie. Long, athletic, bouncy, he can shoot, and active defensively. He's raw and very skinny. But the upside is definitely there. A little bit of a Siakam vibe. There will be some interesting names at 45.

Edit: Isaiah Todd from the G League is also right there for me. He's stronger than Thor (ha) but a similar skill set. Can shoot, long and bouncy. They'll both probably be hybrid 4/5s with upside.
 
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nighthob

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Kessler Edwards needs to bulk up a bit, but I think he might be moving to the top of my list for #45.
 

BigMike

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If a team in the top 3 offered their pick for Jaylen brown do you do it? Woj says teams like cleveland, GS, and Houston want to deal for a young all star.
Wouldn't that be the wrong timelime. I guess it depends on just how much you think the top 3 guy would be better than Brown longterm, but man that seems to add a lot of risk, for maybe not enough upside.

Also why would Houston be looking for a quick rebuild. They have a complete shit roster
 

HomeRunBaker

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If a team in the top 3 offered their pick for Jaylen brown do you do it? Woj says teams like cleveland, GS, and Houston want to deal for a young all star.
I feel most new GM’s would do that deal to both put their fingerprints on the team to change the culture. If Brad was as frustrated as many of us were towards Jaylen’s attention to detail defensively this year it could happen.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I feel most new GM’s would do that deal to both put their fingerprints on the team to change the culture. If Brad was as frustrated as many of us were towards Jaylen’s attention to detail defensively this year it could happen.
I think it matters a lot on whether it's pick 1 or pick 3 too.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Wouldn't that be the wrong timelime. I guess it depends on just how much you think the top 3 guy would be better than Brown longterm, but man that seems to add a lot of risk, for maybe not enough upside.

Also why would Houston be looking for a quick rebuild. They have a complete shit roster
Why wouldn’t they want to rebuild quickly? Theoretically add Jaylen and a FA (Lonzo?) to Wood and you have something to build upon.