I'm too anxious/depressed that the Rockets are about to get generationally fucked (the '22 draft won't be very good and Houston doesn't really control its draft after that thanks to the fucking Westbrook trade) to look at the top of the draft. Of course, I'll cheer up if they win the lottery.
I have a short list for #45 so far, with Nix, Duke, Grimes, Marcus Bagley, and Johnny Juzang at the top of my wish list for the pick.
I re-looked at the Westbrook trade, since the details are a bit weird. It's not as horrific as I previously thought, now that everything has shaken out.
- Rockets 2024 first-round draft picks (protected 1 – 4)
- Rockets 2026 first-round draft picks (protected 1 – 4)
- Option to swap first-round 2021 draft pick with Rockets (protected 1-4)
- Option to swap first-round 2025 pick with Rockets (protected 1-10).
The Thunder are 4th in the lottery standings, so the absolute worst case for Houston is that they drop to 5th and OKC drops to 8th. That's not great, but it's probably worth the 10-15th pick or so, and that's the worst case.
You'd expect OKC to be good by 2025, but Houston could be decent again too.
The 2024 and 2026 picks suck, but the Rockets get 2022 and 2023 bites at the apple, and have the pick from Washington and the picks from Brooklyn to ease the "can't acquire anybody because don't control future drafts" pain.
Basically the Rockets get to tank 3 straight years including this one, (4-5 if necessary and with some luck) and keep the picks. Then after that, they still have plenty of draft capital to move, particularly if Brooklyn falls off at all, which is looking more and more possible.
It was an awful trade, but this isn't mid 2010s Brooklyn by any stretch. The Rockets retain their ability to tank all the way through, and still have picks to deal for players if they hit on some talent early.
They could improve the situation even further by moving their best contracts/players like Wood, since they're unlikely to be able to re-sign him in 2023 as a still-bad team.