Beyond The Bubble - Official 2021-22 NBA Betting Thread

HomeRunBaker

HomeRunBaker

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Closing out the week with a good one.

* Rockets +10.5 (over Lakers)

Edit: Lakers approached this game like a G7 with the defensive intensity they came out with tonight. Not what I expected. An L is an L unless we get some silly type of back door.

Edit: 95-85 Lakers for the EASY cover. Not going to apologize for a win. My read was that the spot for Lakers was going to affect their focus which it did in the 2H as they got sloppy in the middle of a 10-day stretch against the dregs of the league.
 
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HomeRunBaker

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We’ve got our favorite team in another wonderous spot tonight. Chicago coming off a huge home win over previously unbeaten Utah and now they make a quick trip to Boston before a home-and-home against the Sixers followed by the Nets. You don’t have to be Billy Walters or Allan Boston to figure out who will be the more hungry and desperate team tonight. Classic NBA spot.

My Line: Celtics -6.5
Present Line: Celtics -2

My wagers:

* Celtics -2 (90%)
* Celtics Winning Margin 21+ @ est. +700 (5%)
* Celtics Winning Margin 17-20 @ est +1200 (5%)
(When I play WM, which used to be only in playoffs but is changing now, I always split evenly between the blowout and 17-20 which has a higher payout. This way I cover those 4 back door points of a blowout while getting the higher payout at the price of sacrificing 50%. It’s just what I’m comfortable doing. You do you.)

Oftentimes when a team breaks out they break out big. They were ready to play down in DC and I attribute some of the shooting troubles to the awkward start time. Tonight there are no such obstacles……we are home and we are hungry for a win before hitting the road. You don’t find better spots in this league than this to cash.
 
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HomeRunBaker

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At the half I though the 17+ was a real possibility and in the 3Q there was around a 50/50 chance of that occuring…….and by late 4Q it was still almost one!! :D

Such a strange NBA betting season to begin. The wins are miraculously getting there while the losses were 85%+ on multiple games in the 2H only not to get there.
 
HomeRunBaker

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We’ve seen the scoring go down early this season which is due in large part to how games are now being officiated as certain players are being affected more than others. With scoring down these Unders are coming in at a 61% rate thus far but we are now seeing sole line adjustments. Combine this with the human officiating element of easing up on their offseason mandates we could see some great values on some Overs coming up. Just something to be aware of.

One example of an adjustment is tonight’s Rockets @ Laker game. The two teams played on Sunday night with a closing line of 224.5 and 48 hours later the number is now 217.
 
HomeRunBaker

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The incredulous betting season of the 21-22 season continues. Pelicans, up double digits entire game, and getting 11 decide on consecutive take fouls down 10 with 18 seconds left to cover the number.

This Laker game is slowing to a crawl in 3Q. Playing Under live decent here at 230 to start 4th. Maybe more at 6-7 min mark.

Edit: As both teams come out scorching to begin 4Q lol.
 
HomeRunBaker

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My action today in order of goodness.

* Pacers -1.5
* Over 226.5 Warriors/Hornets
* Hawks ML +175
* Sixers -2.5
* Under 218 Blazers/Cavs
 
HomeRunBaker

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Unders continue to crush. Last night going 8-2-1 bs closing number even with the adjustments. Shooting is off but game planning, transition defense and halfcourt rotations are spot on. Pace is down to 99.2 as a whole from 99.9 last season which I attribute to camp and better overall preparedness. Many people, myself included, underestimated how valuable a training camp would be for the defenses.

The other noticeable area is how the rule change on 3-pt shooters no longer being able to draw fouls is affecting close outs. No longer is there a fear of sending the shooter to the line for 3 and this is resulting in harder and more aggressive close outs on the shooters.

Overall 3-pt shooting is at 34.2%, down from 36.7% last season with many of the fatigued Olympians who didn’t have an offseason struggling the worst.
 
rymflaherty

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I’m sure I’ll jinx this now, or the total will finally adjust, but my golden goose thus far has been Miles Bridges.

Im sure he’ll let me down sooner than later, but it hasn’t happened yet. Mainly betting pts/reb/ast. It’s crept up the last couple weeks, but it still hasn’t been over 30 and he’s hit every time.
Whenever they do adjust his line, hopefully I can stumble upon someone else that’s flying under the radar.
 
HomeRunBaker

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T
rymflaherty said:
I’m sure I’ll jinx this now, or the total will finally adjust, but my golden goose thus far has been Miles Bridges.

Im sure he’ll let me down sooner than later, but it hasn’t happened yet. Mainly betting pts/reb/ast. It’s crept up the last couple weeks, but it still hasn’t been over 30 and he’s hit every time.
Whenever they do adjust his line, hopefully I can stumble upon someone else that’s flying under the radar.
Click to expand...
Good stuff! I know someone who has been doing same with Tyler Herro and DeRozen since the opener. It’s an exploitable market.
 
RG33

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Today’s NBA Picks

Heat -6.5
76ers -5
Rockets +10.5

I like Heat -2.5 in Q1 as well
 
JM3

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JM3 said:
I don't have current plans to be, but I definitely could be between child events.

Any advantage to kiosk over app?
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Turns out I wasn't on the strip until 4 a.m. this morning when I decided to play an impromptu quickie session of Wynn 1/3 before work.
 
HomeRunBaker

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JM3 said:
Turns out I wasn't on the strip until 4 a.m. this morning when I decided to play an impromptu quickie session of Wynn 1/3 before work.
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Ha! I picked up at 2/5 around 2:30am, slept for 4 hours and now on flight back to FL. I’ll be out for March Madness maybe get up at Wynn for a Celtics game in there.
 
HomeRunBaker

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File this under, “Don’t try this at home kids.”

* Orlando +3.5

Great spot for them to pick up a win at home vs Spurs. Hold your nose.
 
HomeRunBaker

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6 min in, it’s 11-8 Spurs. Bamba has already taken four 3’s and Wendell Carter is 0-7. Good lord lol.
 
HomeRunBaker

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MJM2344 said:
Unders were 4-1 Thursday night, 8-1 last night. Too late to start jumping aboard?
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Depends on the game. I mentioned upthread a reminder to not forget these early start time Unders which historically have been gold 1H and Full game. Today’s 1H just ended 19 points under the number.

I do like Celtics Under today. Should be a grind it out one.
 
HomeRunBaker

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Been on a nice fade the Lakers run. The 2H Wolves won by like 40. Riding with the Spurs today and a little early afternoon Under (All 4 college noon games went below yesterday w today’s 10:30am 1H Under already cashed).
 
HomeRunBaker

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Picks have been awful on here this season. I see good value spot with Under 198.5 in Celtics/Cavs. This number should be closer to 192/193 but we get best of it as books still aren’t being as aggressive to these rules changes as they should be and both teams are missing a lot of firepower here.
 
HomeRunBaker

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HomeRunBaker said:
Picks have been awful on here this season. I see good value spot with Under 198.5 in Celtics/Cavs. This number should be closer to 192/193 but we get best of it as books still aren’t being as aggressive to these rules changes as they should be and both teams are missing a lot of firepower here.
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Nice an easy. That number was flat out wrong.

Another wrong one is the 2H number in this Lakers/Bulls games. Even with DeRozan lighting it up they are at 105 as the pace is a crawl. UNDER 111 in 2H is way out of line….it should be about 106.

Edit: Lakers quit in 3Q as they did vs Wolves so now the game is wide open and the Under needing a small miracle.

Edit2: Somehow this number is only 218.5 after 3Q (we are at 216 w 2H play) which doesn’t appear to account for the game now being wide open with a 20-pt lead. Completely bizarre.
 
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HomeRunBaker

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Took some Cavs +10 on pure intuition. Number bet down from 11 on no news however upon further review this may be an ideal time for the Nets to load manage Durant and Harden. If they do this number goes to 6 and we get the best of it. If they don’t we can always buy back. Love this low-risk high-reward angle here.
 
HomeRunBaker

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Played Milwaukee on a pure Laker fatigue fade laying the 9. They have played uninspired at home, having quit in the 2H of several non-LeBron games, and now head to Milwaukee to play the Bucks with the return of Middleton.
 
RG33

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My 3 picks tonight:

Hawks -5
Pelicans +6.5
Wizards +1
 
HomeRunBaker

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Posting here to be laughed at and ridiculed but if I was one of those loudmouth touts this game would be my MegaStar 10x NBA Game of the Month.

Ok maybe slightly overdone but you don’t find many better NBA spots than this one.

* Celtics +4


- Phoenix benefited from soft early schedule but took care if business for a month straight!! A run like that eventually drains a team and catches up with them. This Suns team is primed for regression and after losing to the Warriors we may have seen some of it in their last game in struggling to get past the Spurs.

- Boston is clearly an enigma and the ideal type of team you want to buy low on when everyone else is selling and vice versa. Coming off a pair of uninspiring in LA this should be a desperate team tonight as teams ge really fight hard on road trips to get that first win after a loss or two. This is where I take off my Celtics hat and replace it with my handicapping hat. I’ll take the 4 but expect a win and possibly even a very comfortable one at that.
 
Sam Ray Not

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HomeRunBaker said:
Posting here to be laughed at and ridiculed but if I was one of those loudmouth touts this game would be my MegaStar 10x NBA Game of the Month.

Ok maybe slightly overdone but you don’t find many better NBA spots than this one.

* Celtics +4


- Phoenix benefited from soft early schedule but took care if business for a month straight!! A run like that eventually drains a team and catches up with them. This Suns team is primed for regression and after losing to the Warriors we may have seen some of it in their last game in struggling to get past the Spurs.

- Boston is clearly an enigma and the ideal type of team you want to buy low on when everyone else is selling and vice versa. Coming off a pair of uninspiring in LA this should be a desperate team tonight as teams ge really fight hard on road trips to get that first win after a loss or two. This is where I take off my Celtics hat and replace it with my handicapping hat. I’ll take the 4 but expect a win and possibly even a very comfortable one at that.
Click to expand...
Booker remains out, too, though I assume that’s baked into the +4.
 
Petagine in a Bottle

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HomeRunBaker said:
Posting here to be laughed at and ridiculed but if I was one of those loudmouth touts this game would be my MegaStar 10x NBA Game of the Month.

Ok maybe slightly overdone but you don’t find many better NBA spots than this one.

* Celtics +4


- Phoenix benefited from soft early schedule but took care if business for a month straight!! A run like that eventually drains a team and catches up with them. This Suns team is primed for regression and after losing to the Warriors we may have seen some of it in their last game in struggling to get past the Spurs.

- Boston is clearly an enigma and the ideal type of team you want to buy low on when everyone else is selling and vice versa. Coming off a pair of uninspiring in LA this should be a desperate team tonight as teams ge really fight hard on road trips to get that first win after a loss or two. This is where I take off my Celtics hat and replace it with my handicapping hat. I’ll take the 4 but expect a win and possibly even a very comfortable one at that.
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This didn’t age well.
 
Jim Ed Rice in HOF

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HomeRunBaker said:
Very few of the games I’ve posted in here this season have aged well.
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On the plus side your “bet the under on early start time games” advice has paid off more often than not, at least the ones I’ve played when I remember to look for them. I really thought today was going to hit OT and kill it.
 
HomeRunBaker

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Jim Ed Rice in HOF said:
On the plus side your “bet the under on early start time games” advice has paid off more often than not, at least the ones I’ve played when I remember to look for them. I really thought today was going to hit OT and kill it.
Click to expand...
Hope you went with the Under in both early games this weekend too.
 
HomeRunBaker

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Get ready to begin fading (playing against) these Suns. I was one game off on their regression, thank you Celtics, but they have 2 pts midway through the 1Q on 1-13 shooting. They obv could still win tonight but this is a good sign to continue looking for spots to fade them.
 
HomeRunBaker

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Clips comfortably beat the Suns by double digits. Phoenix now flies nearly 3 hours to Portland, getting to their rooms around 3am or so at the earliest before playing the rested Blazers at night. I’d come right back with Portland here. I’d expect it to be a Pk or getting 1/1.5
 
HomeRunBaker

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HomeRunBaker said:
The Warriors plane had mechanical issues last night forcing the Warriors to check back into a hotel in Indiana after the game. They fly out to New York this morning to face the Knicks tonight.
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I would imagine that despite the Knicks struggles this year that this is a good buy-low spot for them getting 5 right now in a game where all the attention is on Curry’s record.

Edit: Well, 5’s were out there for a hot second. 4.5 across board now. Couple good travel spots to fade tonight…….let’s see how that works out for them, Cotton!
 
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HomeRunBaker

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Looking for some Holiday presents?

Sticking with the off-time Under theme…….since 2005, the first three games on Christmas Day, starting between noon and 5:30 p.m. ET, have gone 26-9.
 
Sam Ray Not

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Light-Tower-Power said:
Didn’t touch GS/PHO yet. U214 seems a little sketchy to me with the Suns mostly healthy.
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Don’t hold me to it , but given the Warriors’ dearth of scorers and shooters (Poole, Wiggs, Lee out, plus Klay obviously) and stable of good-to-great defenders (Dray, Loon, Otto, GP2, Steph, possibly Andre in), plus Steph’s track record of gifting the opposition bricks on Christmas, I’d lean towards the under.
 
Light-Tower-Power

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Sam Ray Not said:
Don’t hold me to it , but given the Warriors’ dearth of scorers and shooters (Poole, Wiggs, Lee out, plus Klay obviously) and stable of good-to-great defenders (Dray, Loon, Otto, GP2, Steph, possibly Andre in), plus Steph’s track record of gifting the opposition bricks on Christmas, I’d lean towards the under.
Click to expand...
Well, I hit Khris Middleton first FG since Langford wasn’t listed so might as well play with the state of NH’s money, right?
 
Sam Ray Not

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Sam Ray Not said:
Don’t hold me to it , but given the Warriors’ dearth of scorers and shooters (Poole, Wiggs, Lee out, plus Klay obviously) and stable of good-to-great defenders (Dray, Loon, Otto, GP2, Steph, possibly Andre in), plus Steph’s track record of gifting the opposition bricks on Christmas, I’d lean towards the under.
Click to expand...
120 in the first half. Hope no one listened to this dummy.
 
HomeRunBaker

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Any gamblers who have 90 min to spare should find this podcast fascinating. This is Gadoon “Spanky” Kryollos, who operates a sports betting syndicate, interviewing legendary sports bettor and friend Alan Boston.

My backstory with Alan is pretty wild, I’ve told it many times and maybe even here. I’m in my young 20’s in the late 80’s out in Vegas with a group of 7-8. We’d go twice a year, stay at Riviera and play blackjack, bet on games and drink a lot across the street at Stardust. On this trip we have our PC Friar -7 tickets in our hands getting ready for game to start when a guy next to us says (paraphrasing) “Why don’t you save 2 hours and burn those tickets now, Providence has no chance.” We are all struck by this guys arrogance as he’s a little older than us. We smile, laugh and tell him he’s wrong. He tells us why he’s right. Providence goes on to lose by 20, we run into Alan the next day and begin picking his brain for games probably spending about 20 min total with him over the next 2-3 days.

Fast forward to 2015 or so (over 25 years). I’m in a poker game at Foxwoods and involved in a considerable pot. It’s a fairly crowded room and I sense someone hovering behind me and the player next to me which isn’t uncommon where we were seated. As I’m scooping the pot that person says “Hey Stardust. Nice hand Friar.” If not for having won the hand I would have not even known he was talking to me. I turn around and don’t recognize this person calling me Stardust then he says, “You were out in Vegas like 30 years ago we spent some time together you and your buddies lost your shirts on Providence.” Holy F’in Shit this is that dude!!! I get up and we chat for a minute and he tells me his name and I’m like wait that’s you? Crazy surreal moment. We go on to become good friends and whenever I am driving and want an hour conversation I call him. Lots of people hate him bc they don’t get him but for whatever reason we always connected. Anyway……if you listen I hope you enjoy and the backstory helps you understand this insanely (and insane) Ivy League grad turned pro sports bettor.

Oh and I bet the Celtics tonight. Lord help me.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/alan-boston-interview/id1493902736?i=1000547033757
 
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