May 14 week gamethread

allstonite

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 27, 2010
2,472
I’ll join the “too many games” parade. This feels like a February midweek game not a cup final. These guys are toast. Hopefully LFCs starters get a 2 week vacation before the Champions League game
 

SoxFanInCali

has the rich, deep voice of a god
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jun 3, 2005
15,568
California. Duh.
Well, you can't get much later in the season and still have a quadruple alive. Whatever happens over the last 3 games, it's been an incredible season.

Also, screw whoever scheduled the Southampton game for Tuesday instead of Wednesday, given next weekend's game isn't until Sunday.
 

OCST

Sunny von Bulow
SoSH Member
Jan 10, 2004
24,483
The 718
Here’s your relegation scrap cheat sheet:

51600

Spurs-Burnley 7 am
Leeds-Brighton 9 am
Everton-Brentford 11:30

Notwithstanding Villa’s beat down of Burnley last week, on form and games remaining it looks like Leeds is the straggler. FiveThirtyEight has the odds of going down at 6% Everton, 31% Burnley and 64% Leeds.

at 2 points ahead of Leeds. Everton are safe if they better Leeds result today, ie win if Leeds draws, or win or draw if Leeds loses. They would then be least 3 points ahead of Leeds with Leeds having only one game left and losing the tiebreaker on GD.

Burnley and Leeds are level on points but Leeds have only 2 games left going into today and Burnley have three, and Burnley gets the tiebreaker. The scenarios where Leeds get ahead of both Burnley and Everton involve Leeds winning out, Burnley getting 5/9 or less, AND Everton getting 3/9 or less. If Leeds get only 4/6, they only stay up if Burnley get 3/6 or less AND Everton get zero or one out of nine. If Leeds get 3/6, Everton have to lose out and Burnley has to get 2/6 or less.

Essentially if Leeds lose today they are dead if the other two both win, and a realistic shot only if Burnley lose or draw AND Everton lose. If Leeds draw and Everton get anything Leeds are dead.

Even if Leeds win out they are dead if Burnley also win out OR Everton get 4/9 or more.

In any scenario where Leeds stay up Everton have a two point lead on Burnley with both having three left and Burnley with +2 GD.
 
Last edited:

OCST

Sunny von Bulow
SoSH Member
Jan 10, 2004
24,483
The 718
Spurs were utterly dominant for the first 25 (8 shots to 0, 85% possession) but have since sputtered and Burnley wasted a chance.

Almost halftime, 0-0.

Conte needs to put a foot up their ass at halftime.
 

mikeford

woolwich!
SoSH Member
Aug 6, 2006
29,539
St John's, NL
Spurs were utterly dominant for the first 25 (8 shots to 0, 85% possession) but have since sputtered and Burnley wasted a chance.

Almost halftime, 0-0.

Conte needs to put a foot up their ass at halftime.
No they'll just get bailed out with a completely phantom penalty like they always do.
 

Jimy Hendrix

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 15, 2002
5,846
Spurs were utterly dominant for the first 25 (8 shots to 0, 85% possession) but have since sputtered and Burnley wasted a chance.

Almost halftime, 0-0.

Conte needs to put a foot up their ass at halftime.
Turns out that was not the body part nor the place it was needed.

Thanks, Ashley Barnes’s arm!
 

Jimy Hendrix

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 15, 2002
5,846
No they'll just get bailed out with a completely phantom penalty like they always do.
Phantom, nah.

Soft, yep, but put your arm that far out and well above your head in the box and you are firmly in “play stupid games, win stupid prizes” territory.
 

Kliq

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 31, 2013
22,673
Phantom, nah.

Soft, yep, but put your arm that far out and well above your head in the box and you are firmly in “play stupid games, win stupid prizes” territory.
Correct, it wasn't an egregious handball by Barnes but you can't be impersonating a wacky-waving-inflatable-arm-flailing-tubeman in the box and be shocked a handball occurs.
 
Last edited:

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 2, 2006
22,345
Philadelphia
Phantom, nah.

Soft, yep, but put your arm that far out and well above your head in the box and you are firmly in “play stupid games, win stupid prizes” territory.
Its not just supposed to be about the arm position though, but also your proximity to the player who kicks (or heads) the ball. Tons of pens are not given under the supposed rationale that the defender is close and therefore had no chance to move their arm away. This was one of the new points of emphasis a while back.

I’d say that usually this situation is not given as a penalty.
 

Jimy Hendrix

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 15, 2002
5,846
Its not just supposed to be about the arm position though, but also your proximity to the player who kicks (or heads) the ball. Tons of pens are not given under the supposed rationale that the defender is close and therefore had no chance to move their arm away. This was one of the new points of emphasis a while back.

I’d say that usually this situation is not given as a penalty.
Yeah, the closeness and the fact that it had not that much effect on the overall play are what made it soft. Barnes probably doesn’t get it called if his arm is lower and in even a slightly natural looking position.
 

mikeford

woolwich!
SoSH Member
Aug 6, 2006
29,539
St John's, NL
Its ball to hand, it should never be a penalty which is why it wasn't called on the field and we got to go to the crooked VAR system instead.
 

SocrManiac

Tommy Seebach’s mustache
SoSH Member
Apr 15, 2006
8,634
Somers, CT
It would be an interesting exercise to use xG to draw a more appropriate penalty box. They’ve already negated one of the current box’s original functions, allowing players to receive the ball inside. Seeing 0.01xG chances rewarded with a .76xG penalty is amazing when it’s for your side, but less great in any other situation.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 2, 2006
22,345
Philadelphia
It would be an interesting exercise to use xG to draw a more appropriate penalty box. They’ve already negated one of the current box’s original functions, allowing players to receive the ball inside. Seeing 0.01xG chances rewarded with a .76xG penalty is amazing when it’s for your side, but less great in any other situation.
They should just make all these handballs indirect free kicks in the box unless it’s directly affecting a real scoring chance.
 

coremiller

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
5,846
I’m shocked that the Spurs fans think it was a penalty and the Arsenal fans don’t.
 

SocrManiac

Tommy Seebach’s mustache
SoSH Member
Apr 15, 2006
8,634
Somers, CT
Im not sure there can be any debate that it’s a clear penalty as the rule is written. Just… The writing sucks.