Fair enough. I was probably over-reacting to his recent plate appearances. It seems as though there are certain types of pitches he has no hope of hitting. I hope I'm wrong.
Red Sox Trade Deadline 2022
- Thread starter bosockboy
- Start date
It's certainly possible that he's found himself in a good stretch, but he looks worlds different in his approach at the plate than he did last year. Last season he was launching balls out of Polar Field against AAA pitching and when he got the call he was over matched and seemingly looking for the power to transfer to the big league level and it didn't. The organisation seems to have gotten him to steer away from trying to be a power guy and toward being an on base presence. Rich Gedman (current WOOstah hitting coach) was a huge proponent of "80's batting guru Walt Hriniak back when he played for the Bosox. Perhaps he's employed some of those teachings on Duran.
I'm thinking about the upcoming trade deadline, and I keep thinking back to the Rays' 2018 trade deadline. (Chaim Bloom worked there then, as you may have heard.) The Rays were a game above .500, but mired in third, 20 games behind the high-flying Red Sox. They were a pretty solid club — they would finish 90-72, a respectable result in a very strong division, but still... eighteen games out.
What interests me is that they didn't precisely buy or sell, but they really strengthened their organizational depth, adding an offseason's worth of players who would be important to their next year's team. Here's what they did:
They played considerably better after the 2018 deadline than before — there weren't as many wild cards then, but the Rays would have won a third AL wildcard had there been one — and then they won 96 games and the WC the next year before losing in the Division Series to the eventual (and dubious) champion Astros.
One vision for the 2022 Red Sox would be to keep it simple, stupid. Trade from the middle tiers of our now widely admired top-5 farm system to fill clear needs at 1B, RHRP, and maybe OF, and see how far that takes us. But I wonder if we might see something more complicated. We have a bunch of veteran players in their final years of team control, and I wonder if we might do something akin to what the Rays did, moving some veterans for prospects and some prospects for win-now players, getting younger, shifting money off our payroll, shifting other teams' money onto it.
It seems clear with so many expiring contracts that the 2023 Red Sox will look pretty different than the recent versions; what if that transition starts in August?
What interests me is that they didn't precisely buy or sell, but they really strengthened their organizational depth, adding an offseason's worth of players who would be important to their next year's team. Here's what they did:
- They flipped Eovaldi, whom they had on a one-year deal and who was pitching well, to Boston for Beeks, who had six years of control remaining.
- They similarly sent Matt Andriese, in the midst of a strong season, to Arizona for a pitching prospect who flamed out in AA and a backup catcher who is now a Pirate.
- They traded their injured starting catcher to the Phillies for cash.
- And they sent their Opening Day starter with three years left on his extension, Chris Archer, to Pittsburgh for what can only be called a fucking haul: Austin Meadows, Tyler Glasnow, and Shane Baz.
- But they also sent three prospects to the Cardinals for Tommy Pham, a veteran outfielder who was great for them for a season and a half.
They played considerably better after the 2018 deadline than before — there weren't as many wild cards then, but the Rays would have won a third AL wildcard had there been one — and then they won 96 games and the WC the next year before losing in the Division Series to the eventual (and dubious) champion Astros.
One vision for the 2022 Red Sox would be to keep it simple, stupid. Trade from the middle tiers of our now widely admired top-5 farm system to fill clear needs at 1B, RHRP, and maybe OF, and see how far that takes us. But I wonder if we might see something more complicated. We have a bunch of veteran players in their final years of team control, and I wonder if we might do something akin to what the Rays did, moving some veterans for prospects and some prospects for win-now players, getting younger, shifting money off our payroll, shifting other teams' money onto it.
It seems clear with so many expiring contracts that the 2023 Red Sox will look pretty different than the recent versions; what if that transition starts in August?
Thank you for this fantastic post and the work you put into it. I am of the mind that selling can mean a lot of things, it doesn't have to signal throwing in the towel. The Sox sold a pretty popular guy in '04 and made a couple of other moves designed to keep them competitive, and no white flags were raised, as we all well know.
I also learned at a young age to not get too attached to players, and save Devers, there is no one Sox player that I think should be untouchable right now. I'm not expecting or advocating for any blockbusters, but your post above illustrates Bloom's penchant for creativity, and I wouldn't be at all surprised if the team looks significantly different a few weeks down the road.
I want to second that. This team has flaws, but barring a significant collapse they should be able to make the playoffs. That being said in recognition of the flaws maybe Bloom will get a head start on the offseason shopping list.
As for what vetern could be trade, what about Bogey. Some time might be willing to pony up a nifty package. Use some of the prospects to get a SS
Luplow is interesting, and the ISO is intriguing, but man does he make some shitty contact along with it. And even with the low BABIP this year, his numbers aren't that out of line with his career numbers. I just can't get excited about a .185 hitter, power aside. Feels like we've got a few Luplows on the team already.
My only concern with that is it leaves a pretty big hole in the middle of the infield. The obvious move is sliding Story over to SS, but he's got legitimate concerns about his arm strength that I don't think will play well at shortstop. Then what do you do for second? Is Downs ready to be a full-time contributor? Go with Arroyo or Sanchez? Who's backing up the other infield positions?
I think Bogey avoids the trade block simply because we don't have the depth necessary to replace him. A more realistic Tampa-style move would be flipping Wacha to a fellow contender for outfield help and rolling with Sale/Eovaldi/Whitlock/Crawford/Hill/Pivetta/Bello for the rest of the year.
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There's also that pesky no-trade clause in his contract. Unlike Nomar in 2004, it certainly appears Bogaerts is happy where he is and his teammates love him. I can't see him agreeing to be traded in the next couple weeks with the only team he's known still very much contending. It would have to be an extraordinary circumstance, trading him to exactly the perfect spot (for him), in order for him to waive his no-trade and go along with a deal.
With regard to the Rays in 2018, while they ended up winning 90 games, it should be noted that on deadline day, not only were they 20 games out in the division, they were 9 games out of the wildcard race as well. They weren't real contenders at all at that point, and they were barely above .500 (54-53). They were "sellers" in every sense. I don't think we can take the fact that they played extremely well (best record in the AL East from August 1 on) and pretend that they were straddling some kind of line in their deadline moves. Saying that if there was a third wildcard spot at that point probably doesn't change their motivations at all, since they were still 8 games out of that spot at the deadline. It'd be like looking at the Angels or Tigers right now as still being contenders. I'm not sure that that is a model that the 2022 Red Sox are likely to follow, especially if not a ton changes over the next two weeks in terms of their place in the standings.
That's not to say that the Sox can't make moves that both try to improve the club now but also move some free agents to be for future considerations. I just don't think they can as easily get away with anything that looks like breaking up the core that they have now in exchange for a core that won't emerge for 2-3 years. I don't think they have a Chris Archer type trade in them, for example.
I don't know how likely a Bogaerts trade is, but I am skeptical for the reasons Red(s)HawksFan suggests. If I could see it happening, it would be something like a trade to (let's say) the Cubs in which they extended him for 7/$200m in order to secure his sign off. But I don't think that's especially likely.
We're more likely to see guys like JDM, Eovaldi, Kiké, Hill, or Wacha on the way out.
We're more likely to see guys like JDM, Eovaldi, Kiké, Hill, or Wacha on the way out.
The key thing about the Chris Archer trade is that two of the three players Archer returned played well for the Rays in 2018. Glasnow took over Archer's spot in the rotation, and arguably pitched better than Archer had; Meadows was up in September for a few games, and had an All Star season in 2019. Shane Baz didn't debut until 2021.
I think Bogaerts will eventually agree to waive his no-trade clause because he wants to go to free agency, and being traded means that there is no compensation picks lost by his new employer once he becomes a free agent (on the assumption that MLB/MLBPA do not agree to an international draft by July 25 and, therefore, comp picks remain in place after this season). He would only agree to be a rental, however, and the trade package would reflect it.
That's a good point. So that actually opens up the teams who might consider adding him.
People mention this kind of thing a lot ('I would trade for him but only if we can extend him') but does that ever happen? I honestly can't think of a single example but maybe I'm forgetting.
Mookie Betts to Los Angeles, Adrian Gonzalez to Boston and Matt Olson to Atlanta are the first few that come to mind. But I think it's generally a handshake arrangement between the new team and the players' management. It's been awhile since I've heard of a trade being held up conditional on an extension.
Here the situation would be to give Bogaerts something to waive his no-trade clause, but amfox1 was right that what he gets is an escape from draft compensation.
A somewhat famous example happened circa Thanksgiving 2003 and involved this very messageboard. I don't blame people for blocking it out in 2022, though.
It's a rare occurrence, particularly as a trade deadline move (to wit, I can't think of an example off hand). It's typically more of an off-season move, like the Schilling trade to the Red Sox in 2003. That was contingent on signing an extension to get Schilling to waive his no-trade.
None of those were contingent on an extension to get the trade done (or waive a no-trade). In fact, Betts didn't sign his extension until months later. Same for Gonzalez, though in his case the delay was mostly to get around luxury tax rules.
The Mookie trade was in February and he signed his contract in July, with Covid breaking out in between. The other examples people gave are good though, somehow I forgot about Matt Olson which just happened (although not midseason, that must be even more rare)
All of this is to litigate a branch of conditional logic that was proposed as highly unlikely from the get-go: that Xander Bogaerts would be traded midseason. Soooo... yeah.
Agreed on that, but more my point was that people always mention that as a possibility and I think it basically never realistically is.
A mid-season version of the trade-and-sign just happened here in Boston, but in the NHL. On March 19, 2022, the Bruins traded for Hampus Lindholm, who was in the final year of his contract. On March 20th, they announced that Lindholm had signed an 8-year extension.
Some really good targets all over the thread but this one is the most attractive to me. Guy's got 21 home runs so far this season with a 121 OPS+. He's also incredibly unlucky this year:
He's got 2 more years of control, which makes him great Casas insurance, and I haven't heard a ton of media buzz around him either, which makes me think he may not be hard to get. Maybe the D-backs would package him with someone like Joe Mantiply for Dalbec and insert-your-AA-starter-here.
A team I'm watching for the buy v. sell question is Miami. Four games out of a WC spot right now, three games under .500. Theoretically, they can climb back into it, but a couple of bad series could change that in a hurry. That could mean they'd have Garrett Cooper or Jorge Soler available - granted, it would be a bit goofy to trade something for the latter right now after he was available for just money in free agency, but he'd be a fit.
I’m still not sure why people think the Rockies move Cron just six months after signing him to a multi-year deal. Nate Lowe has a 122 wRC+ and is under team control until 2027, so his availability seems remote too. My interest in Hunter Dozier has waned slightly now that I know he’s unvaxed, but he’d still be pretty helpful. Aguilar is immensely likable but his bat seems to have declined.
Bell seems like he’ll be a premium free agent target for us, with JDM leaving and us badly needing power. I don’t know if trading for him would help that effort, but it couldn’t hurt. Otherwise, Christian Walker or Garrett Cooper are probably my preferred targets for impactful bats.
Technically no. But the team does get to roll out the red carpet and an exclusive negotiation window with the player and their agents prior to the FA deadline. So as long as the player's camp is open to that, it's not nothing.
Soto rejects 15 yr, 440M deal, available this deadline, 2+ years of control
View: https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/1548340997230170115?s=20&t=HEGbivQ9SmI8AuIDWBy_-g
View: https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/1548340997230170115?s=20&t=HEGbivQ9SmI8AuIDWBy_-g
So, uh, does Mayer, Verdugo, Duran, Yorke, Houck and Dalbec get this done? Then you give him, uh, 15/$500m.
(I'm not really serious. I kind of can't even imagine what the prospect cost would be in a case like this.)
2B Story RH
LF Soto LH
3B Devers LH
SS Bogaerts RH
DH Martínez RH
1B Casas LH
RF Cordero LH
C Vaz/Plaw RH
CF Bradley LH
(I'm not really serious. I kind of can't even imagine what the prospect cost would be in a case like this.)
2B Story RH
LF Soto LH
3B Devers LH
SS Bogaerts RH
DH Martínez RH
1B Casas LH
RF Cordero LH
C Vaz/Plaw RH
CF Bradley LH
Close, going by baseball trade values' evaluation of players' median worth:
Most fans on the site are attaching Corbin as the new Mookie/Price combo:
(I actually think Soto's value is so astronomically high, and now the secret's out, that the Nats will lose big on any trade)
I’d do that deal in a second. Easily. I’m not sure if Washington would though. (If all things were equal.)
Yeah. There’s no way they’re getting “full value,” so it’s just a question of beating the second best offer.
That makes sense. The Mookie trade, but with another year of control.
Man, we would be counting heavily on Casas producing now, because on nights when Vaz sits that would be a rough 7-9.
I dont think Soto's value on a 500M contract is THAT high honestly.
He's a great player and will fetch a good package, but this isn't the NBA (i.e. getting prime Lebron makes you a contender automatically.... doesn't work that way in MLB).
I know you aren’t really serious, but why would the Sox go after Soto when they’ve got their own FA’s to be in X and Devers? Signing all three would be, what, $1-$1.1b in committents? Gutting the system to get Soto and then giving him an astronomical amount of money doesn’t seem like a great idea for long term success. If you trade for him and the have to let X and or Devers go, what’s the point? You are no better off than when you started.
He is under team control through 2024, so two full seasons plus the remainder of this one if he was dealt now.
Agreed, the Soto trade values posted above along with the commitment of $$$ and years to sign him are likely to create more long term issues than they solve.
I think this would be the right play, but they're going to have to pick up a RH outfielder.
Yep, ideally a 1B and a RH OF and not one guy who can play both. Ultimately I'd like to see Bradley moved/released leaving Verdugo, Duran, Kike', RFsnyder and unknown RH as your OF rotation with either Franchy or Dalbec being sent down and the other backing up the new FULL TIME 1B. I fully realize I've not offered names here, but my point is simply that ideally we need two guys and not one.
Washington would be crazy not to take that deal. And the Red Sox would be crazy to offer. Thankfully, Bloom isn’t crazy.
Depending on the severity of Sale's injury and how back to earth players like Duran/Cordero have been, I think selling has to be back on the table.
Yea at the risk of being too gloom and doom about this, if Sale is going to miss 4-6 weeks, I think we should see what we can get for JDM, Xander, and Eovaldi. We all knew July was going to be rough but we have a 5-11 record this month so far. While anything can happen in the playoffs once you get there, I don't really see any version of this team, with Josh Bell or not, winning a 7 game series against the Yankees or Astros and then against the Dodgers or Mets.
If they internally have decided to not resign Devers, blow it up. 1.5 seasons of Raffy gets a huge haul.
That's factually correct, but he's the one untouchable on my list. I'd eventually get over it, but it would have to be one hell of a haul. No doubt I could be wrong, but I just don't see it.
At some point they have to pay someone. Unless they want an empty ball park for the next several years.
I’d be terribly pissed don’t get me wrong. But if they have now set a line in the sand of not resigning stars to 350-400 million extensions, then you do it now.