Let's say BB stays on until he retires. What does that mean for the franchise?

lexrageorge said:

There is too much of “take out the bad games and he’s a great pitcher” in this analysis.

Brady was nowhere near TB12 GOAT when the Pats beat the Rams in what was a coaching masterclass.

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Nor was he in 2003.

His 2003 stats: 317-527 (60.2%), 3,620 yds, 6.9 y/a, 23 td, 12 int, 85.9 rating

Here's where he ranked:

Completion %: #13
Passing Yards: #6
Passing TD: #10
Yds/Att: #12
Passer Rating: #10

Moreover, the team's offense on the whole was #12 in points scored and #17 in yards gained, so it's not like he was leading an elite offense. They happened to have a pretty good (not great, never mind "elite") offense, but had a lights-out defense, ranking #1 in the NFL in points allowed, and #7 in yards allowed.

He was getting better and was moving towards GOAT level, but he wasn't remotely there yet.

So at least the first two Super Bowls BB won with Brady was when Brady had not yet ascended to the all-time great level he would later get to. He was obviously a good quarterback at this point, maybe even a very, very good one. But not all-time great TOM BRADY.

Anyone diminishing Belichick because he had Brady is just spouting nonsense.

I mean I think you can say that Belichick had it much easier than 98% of the coaches ( those without a HOF QB), @BaseballJones but Belichick also maximized his SB wins and appearances with said QB and none of those other coaches did. It would be foolish to acknowledge his advantage but equally short-sighted to not acknowledge his continual success vs peers in similar situations.

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag said:

He has won one playoff game in 9 seasons of being a HC without Brady. He made the playoffs three times in those 9 seasons. That is not good. There really is no "regardless of Brady" when you look objectively at the results he has delivered. Not only is he not in the GOAT conversation, he would be coaching in the PAC-12.

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Is your point that we should assume that his entire career would look like the years he didn't have Brady? That's absurd.

He's a great coach. Brady is a great player. Together they did unprecedented things that they would have not achieved had they not been together.

SMU_Sox said:

I mean I think you can say that Belichick had it much easier than 98% of the coaches ( those without a HOF QB), @BaseballJones but Belichick also maximized his SB wins and appearances with said QB and none of those other coaches did. It would be foolish to acknowledge his advantage but equally short-sighted to not acknowledge his continual success vs peers in similar situations.

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Of course. I mean, anyone who has Tom Brady has an advantage, just like Walsh had an advantage with Montana. But I think it's also safe to say that while BB owes a lot of his success to TB, TB also owes a lot of his success to BB.

Brady on a crappy team to start his career maybe never sees the field, and if he does, maybe he doesn't come close to developing like he did in New England.

Like you said, we can't really speak to what could have happened, but what DID happen. Lots of teams win Super Bowls without Bill Belichick as head coach. Lots of teams win without Tom Brady as quarterback. But you don't win SIX Super Bowl championships without both of them TOGETHER.

SMU_Sox said:

Or maybe he hires a good OC, Ozzie helps with drafting and he has a long and successful career as the Ravens HC? These hypotheticals don't move the needle for me because they didn't happen. What did happen was he got to the CC game at a higher clip than Manning and his coaches did, Brees and his coaches did, Rivers and his coaches did, etc. Unless we think Brady is that much better than his peers (I don't) then maybe just maybe some credit is due to his coach and GM? Seems fair.

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Oh totally. An injury here or there, a fumble here or there, and the history of football is totally different with Bud Grant and Marv Levy being three or four time superbowl winning coaches or whatever, Bill Walsh a multiple time loser, the Bengals one of the franchies of the 80s, etc. .

My personal view is that that BB or Brady dichotomy is kind of stupid because BB deserves a huge amount of credit for the Brady eraas seein in how much Brady improved and how well Brady played; Brady is obviously durable and intense and incredibly highly motivated, but the fact that he just kept getting better and better and better for years. You often hear chatter about how every play is a test and Brady had the answers before every play (so did Peyton although that seemed to be the case for him since he was about 9)--well a lot of players, say Andy Dalton or Matt Stafford or Matt Ryan, seem to be pretty smart, have been in the league a loooong time, and still seem to keep getting nailed on pop quizzes. I think a ton of Brady's processing and football intellect is from working with BB and McDaniels for so long.

Shelterdog said:

I get the point but it's also kind of funny to imagine BB's non brady career as one career held by a snake bit, Billy Martin type who just kept getting canned. Like "I started building something in Cleveland but then the team announced it was moving and the team collapsed my last year. Then I got to the Pats for one year when they were in cap hell; I found a rookie QB who seemed good but I got fired (and my evil twin brother coached them to a superbowl the next year). Then I got hired for one year by the pats after my evil twin went 18-1 but Brady got hurt in game 1 so we missed the playoffs at 11-5, then I got fired again. Then my evil twin brother and Brady left the team one year after it won a superbowl and I got a shitty team in cap hell.....

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Yes! But in my 9 years piece those are years where Brady wasn’t even on the roster. It’s a weird view of the world, but 9 years - going on 10 - is a pretty long HC career. You can look at it as its own thing.

There are so many innovations Bill has used over the years on offense and defense. Bill could never pick from the top of the list of what was in vogue given where he picked. So what did he do? Well he consistently used bigger linebackers for 20 years and in many of those years they were excellent in the defense. Think Hightower, Bentley, Mayo, Spikes. He often used these ILBs as OLBs or even lining up on the LOS in pass rush situations. He changed from 2 high schemes and zone to 1 high and man. He changed from 3-4 to 4-3 to 3-4 as main bases but has always employed hybrid fronts. He maximized tweeners like Teddy B. He modernized the use of 11 and the slot. A lot of coaches worked on this too but he imo anyway the biggest innovator for having the slot be the guy who stirs the drink. He shifted from 11 to 12 (double TE) to tempo/no-huddle as a weapon, to then using a lot of 21 and back to bigger heavier offenses against lighter and faster defenses. Hell the way he used slots and option/choice routes as a safety valve for Brady and how often he used that route vs others is something of note too. The amount Bill has changed, adapted, innovated, and saw coming is truly extraordinary.

Yeah if you listen to some people, you'd think that BB just lucked into Brady. No. BB selected Brady - nobody else did. BB kept him when he already had three quarterbacks on the roster - nobody else would dream of doing that. He kept Brady in after Bledsoe was healthy following the Mo Lewis hit - most coaches would never let their STAR quarterback lose his job due to an injury. Even though Brady had a bad ankle, and even though Bledsoe kind of was a bit of a hero in the AFCCG after Brady went out with an injury, BB started Brady over Bledsoe in the Super Bowl - most coaches wouldn't have done that. And in 2007, he totally changed tactics and provided Brady with an absolute arsenal of weapons.

All along, Belichick has had his hands on Brady's development and career. He didn't "luck" into Brady. He picked him, kept him, mentored him, taught him, gave him an opportunity, and then stuck with him.

It's not all on BB of course. Brady has an incredible internal drive and motivation and an underrated skill set. But everything I just posted is true. In a big way, Tom Brady is TOM BRADY because of Belichick. Not ONLY because of Belichick, obviously, but in a significant way.

lexrageorge said:

There is too much of “take out the bad games and he’s a great pitcher” in this analysis.

Brady was nowhere near TB12 GOAT when the Pats beat the Rams in what was a coaching masterclass.

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I would strongly disagree with the first statement and agree with the second.

Brady’s MVP in that SB was hideous. He was actively bad in that game. There were at least 8 defensive players who played way better than he did.

BaseballJones said:

Like you said, we can't really speak to what could have happened, but what DID happen. Lots of teams win Super Bowls without Bill Belichick as head coach. Lots of teams win without Tom Brady as quarterback. But you don't win SIX Super Bowl championships without both of them TOGETHER.

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Tom Brady went to Tampa Bay and won a SB with Bruce Arians as his Head Coach.

Bruce Arians has a guy on the sidelines with him to make aure that he doesn’t accidentally eat his play sheet. Let’s relax on everything in caps, huh?

He's had 3 years without Tom on the roster or anywhere on the team since the 90's Yammer. 3. One year he went 7-9 with one of the worst rosters I've seen. Then he got to the playoffs with a rookie QB which is no easy feat. This year he is 6-6, mediocre. Look at the teams in front of him... aside from the Jets every single one of those teams has a better QB. Mc Jones has been BAD this year. And he might legit be bad or at least below average to average at best. I thought he was a functional starter at best coming out of college and he's done nothing to show me otherwise. To be fair his support has been bad this year with the OL a disaster and the offensive coaching staff... lacking. Chiefs, Bengals, Ravens, Bills, Dolphins, and Titans all have better QBs than Mac Jones. Jets have a 1st round studded defense. They also beat the Jets twice head to head. Coaches tend to go the way of their QBs. I can't think of a coach who had any sort of notable success without at least 1 truly good QB.

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag said:

Yes! But in my 9 years piece those are years where Brady wasn’t even on the roster. It’s a weird view of the world, but 9 years - going on 10 - is a pretty long HC career. You can look at it as its own thing.

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I think what it does is just show you how hard it is to be a winning NFL coach. BB seems to be really smart, know a lot about football, etc, but does he know more about football or scheme better than Mike Zimmer or Shannahan or Andy Reid or Tom Coughlin or does he just happens to be the only one of a roughly comparable set of elite football minds who also had super durable super coachable will play on team friendly contracts QB for twenty years? Joe Philbin is easy to mock because of his shop teacher energy but the guy was a decent coach for a long time in the NFL--the Dolphins take Russell Wilson instead of Tannehill in 2012 and I'd be anything he has a much better career. People here thought Pete Carroll was a fucking idiot when he was the head coach, and he's done alright in the twenty years since. If the Chargers are just a little bit worse and get Manning number one instead of Leaf number two does Kevin Gilbride ride Peyton's coattails to win superbowls. Well, no on that last one, but you get the point.

DennyDoyle'sBoil said:

Is your point that we should assume that his entire career would look like the years he didn't have Brady? That's absurd.

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Right now the Patriots look like a team that are way more like those 9 years. Tom Brady and being in a division that was historically incompetent for 20 years will make up for a lot of errors in terms of making the playoffs and winning games.

SMU_Sox said:

He's had 3 years without Tom on the roster or anywhere on the team since the 90's Yammer. 3. One year he went 7-9 with one of the worst rosters I've seen. Then he got to the playoffs with a rookie QB which is no easy feat. This year he is 6-6, mediocre. Look at the teams in front of him... aside from the Jets every single one of those teams has a better QB. Mc Jones has been BAD this year. And he might legit be bad or at least below average to average at best. I thought he was a functional starter at best coming out of college and he's done nothing to show me otherwise. To be fair his support has been bad this year with the OL a disaster and the offensive coaching staff... lacking. Chiefs, Bengals, Ravens, Bills, Dolphins, and Titans all have better QBs than Mac Jones. Jets have a 1st round studded defense. They also beat the Jets twice head to head. Coaches tend to go the way of their QBs. I can't think of a coach who had any sort of notable success without at least 1 truly good QB.

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But he chose Jones. He is not only the coach. The entire football organization is his creation. From the approach to scouting to who is picked to who the coordinators are (ftr…I think his son is not a terrible coordinator. I think Judge and Patricia are bad).

Shelterdog said:

I think what it does is just show you how hard it is to be a winning NFL coach. BB seems to be really smart, know a lot about football, etc, but does he know more about football or scheme better than Mike Zimmer or either Shannahan or Andy Reid or Tom Coughlin but just happens to be the only one of those that had a super durable super coachable will play on team friendly contracts QB for twenty years? Joe Philbin is easy to mock because of his shop teacher energy but the guy was a decent coach for a long time in the NFL--the Dolphins take Russell Wilson instead of Tannehill in 2012 and I'd be anything he has a much better career. People here thought Pete Carroll was a fucking idiot when he was the head coach, and he's done alright in the twenty years since. If the Chargers are just a little bit worse does Kevin Gilbride ride Peyton's coattails to win superbowls. Well, no on that last one, but you get the point.

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Completely agree.

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag said:

Tom Brady went to Tampa Bay and won a SB with Bruce Arians as his Head Coach.

Bruce Arians has a guy on the sidelines with him to make aure that he doesn’t accidentally eat his play sheet. Let’s relax on everything in caps, huh?

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No, I don't think I will relax on what I wrote in all caps. Because it's all true. I said that teams have won without Brady, or without Belichick. Brady went to TB and won not only with Bruce Arians, but with a highly competent group of assistant coaches and a ton of excellent players. Moreover, Arians was at least smart enough to let Brady do his thing.

And FWIW, Arians' career record as HC is 80-48-1. Without Brady it's still 56-39-1 (.589), which is quite good. That doesn't even count the 9-3 he went with Indy as interim coach in 2012, since that record got attached to Chuck Pagano.

In Arizona, Arians took over a team that went 5-11 in 2012 and led them to three straight season of 10, 11, and 13 wins with a broken down Carson Palmer and - if you can believe this - Drew Stanton at QB.

Despite sentiments to the contrary, Arians isn't a blithering idiot. He's no BB, but he's a highly successful head coach actually.

SMU_Sox said:

He's had 3 years without Tom on the roster or anywhere on the team since the 90's Yammer. 3. One year he went 7-9 with one of the worst rosters I've seen. Then he got to the playoffs with a rookie QB which is no easy feat. This year he is 6-6, mediocre. Look at the teams in front of him... aside from the Jets every single one of those teams has a better QB. Mc Jones has been BAD this year. And he might legit be bad or at least below average to average at best. I thought he was a functional starter at best coming out of college and he's done nothing to show me otherwise. To be fair his support has been bad this year with the OL a disaster and the offensive coaching staff... lacking. Chiefs, Bengals, Ravens, Bills, Dolphins, and Titans all have better QBs than Mac Jones. Jets have a 1st round studded defense. They also beat the Jets twice head to head. Coaches tend to go the way of their QBs. I can't think of a coach who had any sort of notable success without at least 1 truly good QB.

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Ditka during his time with the Bears. .631 win % with Jim McMahon as his QB.

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag said:

But he chose Jones. He is not only the coach. The entire football organization is his creation. From the approach to scouting to who is picked to who the coordinators are (ftr…I think his son is not a terrible coordinator. I think Judge and Patricia are bad).

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There is a difference between BB the GM and BB the coach. You're moving the goalposts.

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag said:

- Belichick has won one playoff game in 9’seasons as a HC with Tom Brady not on his roster. That is really bad. Most guys who have that record either wear a suit in a studio on Sundays, are the DC somewhere, or coach the Lions. It is fair to ask the question whether he is the guy for the future.

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Rick Burlesons Yam Bag said:

Yes! But in my 9 years piece those are years where Brady wasn’t even on the roster. It’s a weird view of the world, but 9 years - going on 10 - is a pretty long HC career. You can look at it as its own thing.

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5 of those years were in the 1990s. Why are they relevant? Don't you think he's learned a lot since then? The finances and rules of the game have changed like 3 times.

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag said:

I would strongly disagree with the first statement and agree with the second.

Brady’s MVP in that SB was hideous. He was actively bad in that game. There were at least 8 defensive players who played way better than he did.

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So for the first 2 SBs Brady was... average to above average for the season? So point Belichick? Did Belichick not build that team? This year the defense has a bunch of playmakers too.

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag said:

Tom Brady went to Tampa Bay and won a SB with Bruce Arians as his Head Coach.

Bruce Arians has a guy on the sidelines with him to make aure that he doesn’t accidentally eat his play sheet. Let’s relax on everything in caps, huh?

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Bruce Arians was a good HC and an excellent offensive mind. Also note that you're talking about a HC here. (Football Outsiders and other media outlets wrote about how the Bucs could potentially win a SB because their coaching and other personnel was excellent and that Winston was that bad. Turnovers are the worst thing you can do in a game and Winston had a record many of them).

And I predicted them to win that year given how good the situation was...

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag said:

Right now the Patriots look like a team that are way more like those 9 years. Tom Brady and being in a division that was historically incompetent for 20 years will make up for a lot of errors in terms of making the playoffs and winning games.

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5 of those years was his first head coaching gig. If you were to base how a guy is to do in a job and you're bringing up stuff from 30 years ago I'd say it is worthless. His most recent performance is a better indicator. 2020 he didn't do a great job as a GM but going 7-9 with that turd was impressive. 2020 again made the playoffs with a rookie QB which is a rare thing. As a coach Bill is still very good. This year he is having a hiccup on offense. Let's give him some time to adjust. Again if you want to talk about Bill the GM that's fine. There is a lot more I would criticize vs Bill the HC. Bill the HC is still good.

j44thor said:

Ditka during his time with the Bears. .631 win % with Jim McMahon as his QB.

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Had a top 3 defense in the 1980s... Also Jim McMahon was an average to good QB in Chicago. It's a good example though Ditka won with the defense and again McMahon was ok/good. He was, fwiw, a pro bowler in 1985.



He was at least above average every year in 5 in his 7 year Chicago career.

Can we think of anyone in the last 20 years?

My best guess is actually Andy Reid (I love Andy Reid) for his work with Donovan and Alex Smith and both of those guys were above average to good QBs most years when he had them.

Shelterdog said:

I think the bigger question for the Pats is what is the ultimate transition plan. BB built a particular system (one that uses certain scouting grades for example)--do you try and keep the scouting system, the scouts, the offensive and/or defensive systems and just get rid of BB and make someone like Mayo the coach, Groh the GM, and keep most of what you have in place ? Do you say we really need a unified system but BB's system isn't especially good, so we're going to give complete control to for example a Sean Payton? Do you say I like the system and organization and want to find a good coach who can work within the system? Do you move [this would be my call] to what I'd call the Pittsburgh/Ravens approach which is to have essentially four separate functions--an offensive coach who runs the offense, a DC who runs the defense, a GM, and a head coach who runs neither the offense nor the defense but is outstanding at the other parts of the game (game management, motivation, synchronizing defensive and offensive and special teams approaches, dealing with the media)? Whether you replace BB now or in three years you have to visualize what the next step is.

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I agree, that is the question. Replacing Belichick in the long term is not merely replacing the head coach but replacing the head of all football operations. Everything rolls up to Bill. There are different models that have been successful (I tend to align with the head-coach-as-head-guy, but it's not the only way), but whether your head guy is the head coach, the GM, or some other person that both the HC and GM report to, you need some kind of organizational clarity.

The good thing is practically a quarter of the league runs the Pats scouting system or some derivation thereof (notably Baltimore), so it's not like it will be hard to find GM talent with experience in the Patriots / Belichick way (assuming they want to go that direction).

Harry Hooper said:

An interesting post, so maybe discussion is worthy of its own thread? We know that the two Bills believe in the "Coach as Grand Poobah of Everything" model, but I too find the Steelers' model compelling. The demonstrated long-term track record of the Rooney Family sticking by their coaches might be a key part of making that model work even though the coach does not have absolute powers. If you are another organization without that kind of track record, however, with players more likely to view coaches as temporary and flushable, are you better off with the Grand Poobah model?

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You do need a Grand Poobah. You can decide it should be the GM rather than the head coach, but the one thing you don't want is Jonathan Kraft being the final word on football decisions. And that's not really even a knock on Kraft.

Shelterdog said:

I think a ton of Brady's processing and football intellect is from working with BB and McDaniels for so long.

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It's worth keeping in mind here that McDaniels did not really have any more experience than Patricia / Judge when he took over as offensive signal-caller (just one year as QB coach), so the arrow is probably running in both directions between him and Brady (who is almost the same age).

As for your overall point ... I dunno. I think you can credit Belichick with helping develop Brady's football intellect, but processing is something different and I'm not sure if it's something that can be taught. This is pretty relevant to this year's Pats because Mac is reportedly a whiteboard genius but we still see him make dumb processing mistakes.

This is one of my favorite Belichick quotes on Brady:

One thing about Tom, he has a great vision for the game. When you ask him at the end of the play what happened, he'll tell nine or 10 things that happened -- with the rush, the way the defense played, the way the route was run, what he saw. You go back and look at the film and that's the way it happened. So he's able to process a lot of information in just a couple of seconds there.

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To me that's a completely different skill than being a whiteboard / playbook genius and not something Belichick taught Brady or even necessarily something that can be taught. But it's something the greatest pocket passers of his generation - you mentioned Manning, but Brees too - possessed. And it's something that some very smart QBs didn't, which is why Ryan Fitzpatrick can out-Wonderlic the rest of the league but still make 3 or 4 dumbass headscratching throws a game.

Sean Payton: “I value players processing real quickly over those players who are intelligent but slow processors. This is one of Drew Brees’s strengths—processing and deciding. I don’t think that necessarily correlates to overall intelligence. It does sometimes."

Super Nomario said:

It's worth keeping in mind here that McDaniels did not really have any more experience than Patricia / Judge when he took over as offensive signal-caller (just one year as QB coach), so the arrow is probably running in both directions between him and Brady (who is almost the same age).

As for your overall point ... I dunno. I think you can credit Belichick with helping develop Brady's football intellect, but processing is something different and I'm not sure if it's something that can be taught. This is pretty relevant to this year's Pats because Mac is reportedly a whiteboard genius but we still see him make dumb processing mistakes.

This is one of my favorite Belichick quotes on Brady:

To me that's a completely different skill than being a whiteboard / playbook genius and not something Belichick taught Brady or even necessarily something that can be taught. But it's something the greatest pocket passers of his generation - you mentioned Manning, but Brees too - possessed. And it's something that some very smart QBs didn't, which is why Ryan Fitzpatrick can out-Wonderlic the rest of the league but still make 3 or 4 dumbass headscratching throws a game.

Sean Payton: “I value players processing real quickly over those players who are intelligent but slow processors. This is one of Drew Brees’s strengths—processing and deciding. I don’t think that necessarily correlates to overall intelligence. It does sometimes."

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I think the distinction between processing and whiteboard genius is a fair one, and brady clearly excelled at both. I'd have to rewatch old Brady to see how good he was at processing. Brady was always decent at that; I suspect but can't prove that BB etc helped him improve over time.

SMU_Sox said:

There is a difference between BB the GM and BB the coach. You're moving the goalposts.

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Bullshit and you know it. Every great coach in the GOAT conversation becomes the de facto GM, and most all coaches choose their own coordinators. Stop, your desire to isolate this analysis to small windows to create a result you want is not like you and it is embarrassing. Let the crappier posters do this nonsense.

SMU_Sox said:

5 of those years were in the 1990s. Why are they relevant? Don't you think he's learned a lot since then? The finances and rules of the game have changed like 3 times.

So for the first 2 SBs Brady was... average to above average for the season? So point Belichick? Did Belichick not build that team? This year the defense has a bunch of playmakers too.

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He may have learned alot, he might not have. But he has made a number of bad decisions in the last few seasons. When you remove one variable from his career, and only one, he has a meaningful drop in performance. Having confidence that he will return to his mean is bizarre to me.

SMU_Sox said:

Bruce Arians was a good HC and an excellent offensive mind. Also note that you're talking about a HC here. (Football Outsiders and other media outlets wrote about how the Bucs could potentially win a SB because their coaching and other personnel was excellent and that Winston was that bad. Turnovers are the worst thing you can do in a game and Winston had a record many of them).

And I predicted them to win that year given how good the situation was...

Spoiler

View attachment 58601

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Predicting that a team might win the SB after acquiring Tom Brady bolsters the point I am making.

Arians had a few very good years when the NFC West stank. But he became predictable, easy to figure out and his teams started to get hammered. I do not think he was a good HC, and I am saying that as someone who has a lot of respect for him as a human.

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag said:

Arians had a few very good years when the NFC West stank. But he became predictable, easy to figure out and his teams started to get hammered. I do not think he was a good HC, and I am saying that as someone who has a lot of respect for him as a human.

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Now I'm just imagining Ron Jeremy with a Kangol for some reason.

SMU_Sox said:

Patriots unfiltered, Florio and Curran, and others are starting to beat the drums for BB losing power and eventually getting replaced. Florio says his son should have been fired last year for the playoff loss. I find that incredibly stupid. Their defense was out how many starters again? They have one of the better defenses in the NFL this year and had a top 10-ish unit last year. Florio is just a hack with an axe to grind. Steve Belichick has been fine.

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What he was getting at is accountability on the staff. Florio was saying that he thinks Bill wouldn’t fire his sons if it came to it. So if he wouldn’t fire his sons, who would he fire?

Processing is something, I think we discussed that takes years to get better. It can happen. Fields is better this year. Allen has gotten better. Buuuuuuut it can also stall out or not improve like with Kirk Cousins. No guarantees. Mac imo is a guy whose processing has not improved from year to year.

Also to be honest I don't block people often but I think we've wasted enough time in this thread on an obvious troll. Happy trails.

RedOctober3829 said:

What he was getting at is accountability on the staff. Florio was saying that he thinks Bill wouldn’t fire his sons if it came to it. So if he wouldn’t fire his sons, who would he fire?

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I think it's funny that Tom Curran admits that bottoming out for Bill is "7-10, 8-9". He's so good that he can't even bottom out right. Also Florio says Tom... wait for it... found the perfect situation in Tampa Bay where everything was perfect but for the QB. And that Sean Payton is looking to do the same thing where everything is perfect minus the coach. And that Bill could be doing that too. It was worse than that. Florio's quote was, "Because after 47-17 in the playoffs Steve Belichick, if his last name isn't Belichick, he's gone. He's done. It's over. But he can't fire him. If you can't fire your kid you can't fire anyone or hold anyone accountable." This is ridiculous. 1) Steve and Mayo ran the defense. Mayo is still here. 2) Firing a guy over one bad game when you are down starters is again, ridiculous. Stating his dubious opinion like it is a fact is the same kind of logical shit that should get him ignored here. They had street free agents playing corner. They had multiple guys injured and starting but obviously playing hurt. They had Joejuan Williams and Myles Bryant STARTING that game. Justin Bethel was playing too... 13 snaps on defense! Judon played 39% of snaps. Dugger was in a cast. D'Angelo Ross had 8 reps. And we want to fire 1 of the 2 head defacto DCs? Give. me. a. break.

SMU_Sox said:

I think it's funny that Tom Curran admits that bottoming out for Bill is "7-10, 8-9". He's so good that he can't even bottom out right. Also Florio says Tom... wait for it... found the perfect situation in Tampa Bay where everything was perfect but for the QB. And that Sean Payton is looking to do the same thing where everything is perfect minus the coach. And that Bill could be doing that too. It was worse than that. Florio's quote was, "Because after 47-17 in the playoffs Steve Belichick, if his last name isn't Belichick, he's gone. He's done. It's over. But he can't fire him. If you can't fire your kid you can't fire anyone or hold anyone accountable." This is ridiculous. 1) Steve and Mayo ran the defense. Mayo is still here. 2) Firing a guy over one bad game when you are down starters is again, ridiculous. Stating his dubious opinion like it is a fact is the same kind of logical shit that should get him ignored here. They had street free agents playing corner. They had multiple guys injured and starting but obviously playing hurt. They had Joejuan Williams and Myles Bryant STARTING that game. Justin Bethel was playing too... 13 snaps on defense! Judon played 39% of snaps. Dugger was in a cast. D'Angelo Ross had 8 reps. And we want to fire 1 of the 2 head defacto DCs? Give. me. a. break.

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Moreover, if Patricia didn’t get the Lions job, would he have gotten fired after SB52? I think not.

tims4wins said:

Moreover, if Patricia didn’t get the Lions job, would he have gotten fired after SB52? I think not.

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No - that defense was dog shit on paper. They completely overhauled it the next year too. And firing Patricia for one bad game would have been way too reactionary.

SMU_Sox said:

I think it's funny that Tom Curran admits that bottoming out for Bill is "7-10, 8-9". He's so good that he can't even bottom out right. Also Florio says Tom... wait for it... found the perfect situation in Tampa Bay where everything was perfect but for the QB. And that Sean Payton is looking to do the same thing where everything is perfect minus the coach. And that Bill could be doing that too. It was worse than that. Florio's quote was, "Because after 47-17 in the playoffs Steve Belichick, if his last name isn't Belichick, he's gone. He's done. It's over. But he can't fire him. If you can't fire your kid you can't fire anyone or hold anyone accountable." This is ridiculous. 1) Steve and Mayo ran the defense. Mayo is still here. 2) Firing a guy over one bad game when you are down starters is again, ridiculous. Stating his dubious opinion like it is a fact is the same kind of logical shit that should get him ignored here. They had street free agents playing corner. They had multiple guys injured and starting but obviously playing hurt. They had Joejuan Williams and Myles Bryant STARTING that game. Justin Bethel was playing too... 13 snaps on defense! Judon played 39% of snaps. Dugger was in a cast. D'Angelo Ross had 8 reps. And we want to fire 1 of the 2 head defacto DCs? Give. me. a. break.

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Of course 1 game isn’t, but also there’s a larger sample size of the defense not holding up against good teams which is concerning. I think what Florio is saying is that if Bill felt that it was a fireable offense that he wouldn’t fire his sons so then how bad would it look if he fired others on the staff.

I'll answer the question in the thread header. It's possible BB no longer throws his best fastball. But his best fastball was like 103 with movement. Maybe it's down to 99 with movement. Still ridiculously good, if maybe not as good as it once was.

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag said:

He may have learned alot, he might not have. But he has made a number of bad decisions in the last few seasons. When you remove one variable from his career, and only one, he has a meaningful drop in performance. Having confidence that he will return to his mean is bizarre to me.

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Belichick also drafted Gronk, Edelman, Collins, Chandler Jones, Hightower, Wilfork, Seymour, Light, Asante Samuel and signed Butler, Andrews, JC Jackson, Vrabel. All of them contributed in major ways to those Super Bowls. If Hightower doesn’t tackle Lynch, there is no Butler play.

Don’t forget that it was Bill the coach that practiced that exact goal line play. And made the call to bring Butler into the game at that point. And it was Bill the coach that emphasized the conditioning necessary so that the team could actually mount the comeback from 28-3. TD passes to Vrabel. Using Troy Brown as safety and coaching him up to the point he did a credible job. Intentional safety.

Look at the track records of Walsh without Montana, Dungy without Manning, Cowher without Rapist, Billick without Dilfer, Holmgren without Favre, etc.

I mean most recently, BB figured out how to stop the 2018 Rams' offense, which was #2 in the NFL in points scored and #2 in yards gained, and had put up fewer than 23 points just ONE time the entire season (6 points in a bizarre loss to the Bears in week 14. We can scoff at Goff at QB, but that team had a monster offense. Counting playoffs, they scored 30+ points *13* times on the year. They gained 400+ yards 12 times on the season. In the playoffs they averaged 28 points and 419 yards per game against Dallas and New Orleans.

And, without the help of a good offense that day, the Patriots held them to just 3 points and 260 yards in an absolute defensive masterpiece of a game plan (and execution) by Belichick and his staff.

lexrageorge said:

Look at the track records of Walsh without Montana, Dungy without Manning, Cowher without Rapist, Billick without Dilfer, Holmgren without Favre, etc.

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Cowher and Holmgren made SBs with Neil O’Donnell and that bald guy (respectively). Weird list. I think BB is clearly better than all these guys except Walsh (whom he might be better than, I just think there is an argument)

BaseballJones said:

I mean most recently, BB figured out how to stop the 2018 Rams' offense, which was #2 in the NFL in points scored and #2 in yards gained, and had put up fewer than 23 points just ONE time the entire season (6 points in a bizarre loss to the Bears in week 14. We can scoff at Goff at QB, but that team had a monster offense. Counting playoffs, they scored 30+ points *13* times on the year. They gained 400+ yards 12 times on the season. In the playoffs they averaged 28 points and 419 yards per game against Dallas and New Orleans.

And, without the help of a good offense that day, the Patriots held them to just 3 points and 260 yards in an absolute defensive masterpiece of a game plan (and execution) by Belichick and his staff.

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We’ll sure, but you’re forgetting how Brady sacked the QB 4 times, *and* how he played DB and locked down receivers.

This long digression is silly.

You know, I saw that Yam Bag post and was going to respond "Ask Bill Parcells about Belichick without Brady" and let it go because the post was obviously bait.

Anyway here we are 50 posts later and no one has mentioned that BB was an incredibly good defensive coordinator before the Browns even hired him.

I appreciate it though, because I was feeling down about him and am now more excited to see what Bill does next offseason.

Can’t we agree that Belichick doesn’t have the success he’s had without Brady and vice versa? Hardly seems like a controversial take.

Trying to isolate the impact of either or argue definitively that one is nothing without the other is a waste of time. It’s the kind of conversation you get on Felger & Mazz.

Ralphwiggum said:

Can’t we agree that Belichick doesn’t have the success he’s had without Brady and vice versa? Hardly seems like a controversial take.

Trying to isolate the impact of either or argue definitively that one is nothing without the other is a waste of time. It’s the kind of conversation you get on Felger & Mazz.

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For sure, and I basically said this earlier. You can win the SB with one of them, or without one of them. But you don't win SIX unless you have them both together. BB made TB a much, much better quarterback, and TB made BB a much, much better coach. Individually they're both still great, but together they formed the greatest dynasty the sport has ever seen. Anyone who uses one of them to dismiss the success or quality of the other is just a fool.

Shelterdog said:

Now I'm just imagining Ron Jeremy with a Kangol for some reason.

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Nice.

Also Arians was the first white player to room with a black player at Va Tech (and did a lot of other cool things along those lines). That black player was Tiki and Ronde Barber’s dad.

Toe Nash said:

You know, I saw that Yam Bag post and was going to respond "Ask Bill Parcells about Belichick without Brady" and let it go because the post was obviously bait.

Anyway here we are 50 posts later and no one has mentioned that BB was an incredibly good defensive coordinator before the Browns even hired him.

I appreciate it though, because I was feeling down about him and am now more excited to see what Bill does next offseason.

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Oh man I even looked it up and wrote it out and everything and then forgot to post. Parcels is under 500 and very win a playoff game without BB and was 44 games over 500 with a, i think, 11-6 playoff record and three Super Bowl appearances (2 wins) with BB.

BB is clearly In the most elite circle of nfl coaches ever. that doesn’t answer whether he should be the head coach going forward or whether he’s capable of being much over 500 over a protracted period of time at this point in his career without an elite QB, which is really the relevant question

lexrageorge said:

Belichick also drafted Gronk, Edelman, Collins, Chandler Jones, Hightower, Wilfork, Seymour, Light, Asante Samuel and signed Butler, Andrews, JC Jackson, Vrabel. All of them contributed in major ways to those Super Bowls. If Hightower doesn’t tackle Lynch, there is no Butler play.

Don’t forget that it was Bill the coach that practiced that exact goal line play. And made the call to bring Butler into the game at that point. And it was Bill the coach that emphasized the conditioning necessary so that the team could actually mount the comeback from 28-3. TD passes to Vrabel. Using Troy Brown as safety and coaching him up to the point he did a credible job. Intentional safety.

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He was the coach/GM for two decades. Of course he drafted some good guys. But Tom Brady's talent and ability to do what he does/did is a huge difference maker.

lexrageorge said:

Look at the track records of Walsh without Montana, Dungy without Manning, Cowher without Rapist, Billick without Dilfer, Holmgren without Favre, etc.

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Bill Walsh never really was an NFL coach without Montana. He had....one?...terrible season with a terrible team, selected Montana in the draft and within a few years was winning SBs. It's not a great comp as Walsh did most of his innovating as a coordinator and then put it all in place in SF for 8 or 9 seasons, and then retired while Montana was still playing.

Dungy built the hapless Buccaneers into a perennial playoff contender, made the playoffs every year but one (I think) in a tough division and won at least 2 playoff games. He had something like 4 or 5 playoff appearances and two wins in 5 or 6 years. In the end he had two tough first round exits and was bounced.

Cowher made the playoffs almost every year before Roethlisberger (I am sure that he didn't make it every year, and he also played in a very weak division that included Bill Belichick for a stint, but they were very consistent), including winning the AFC Championship.

Holmgren made a SB without Favre.

We are now calling Trent Dilfer an elite QB?

Again, Belichick has had one playoff win, 3 playoff appearances, 9 seasons (soon to be 10). People keep posting as if 10 seasons with only one playoff win happens all the time once your elite QB isn't around, but that is not the case., by the examples that you yourself cited. If you think Bill Belichick can be an elite leader of football operations for the Patriots without Brady, I don't understand what data you are looking at.

Shelterdog said:

Oh man I even looked it up and wrote it out and everything and then forgot to post. Parcels is under 500 and very win a playoff game without BB and was 44 games over 500 with a, i think, 11-6 playoff record and three Super Bowl appearances (2 wins) with BB.

BB is clearly In the most elite circle of nfl coaches ever. that doesn’t answer whether he should be the head coach going forward or whether he’s capable of being much over 500 over a protracted period of time at this point in his career without an elite QB, which is really the relevant question

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Bill Belichick was a great coordinator, of that there is beyond ample data. Lawrence Taylor was also an unreal football player. Bill Parcells' track record after winning the AFC Championship with the Patriots provides plenty of data to support the hypothesis that he was also not an elite HC/Grocery buyer

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag said:

Again, Belichick has had one playoff win, 3 playoff appearances, 9 seasons (soon to be 10). People keep posting as if 10 seasons with only one playoff win happens all the time once your elite QB isn't around, but that is not the case., by the examples that you yourself cited. If you think Bill Belichick can be an elite leader of football operations for the Patriots without Brady, I don't understand what data you are looking at.

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And I put those 9 seasons in context, but you ignored it. You don’t want to discuss this. You have a POV and it’s not changing. That’s cool. Doesn’t mean it’s correct.

I think the mistakes Bill made this year was he didn’t get enough OL depth and he chose the wrong OTs. Then he didn’t get better offensive coaching. He was hamstrung a little by the cap and also by Josh taking a bunch of staff with him. Mac is someone who is a baker not a chef. He is going to be a product especially at this age of his system and the pieces around him. Add to that that he especially needs a good OL and you can see why the offense is in the tank this year. It won’t get better until next season. Bill’s free agent spending in 2020 was part of the problem. You can’t afford to sign better OL or trade and extend for weapons (not that he’s want to necessarily) when you are paying out for Jonnu, Henry, and Agholor. They have enough fire power to be competitive next year provided Bill invests in the line. These are self inflicted wounds this year but I think we need patience to see if he can dig himself out of it. If he continues to make poor free agent signings on offense and doesn’t get more coaching help I will be alarmed. Defensively though I’d point to Godchaux being pretty good even when asked to play out of position, Bentley as a great value, Judon as an excellent signing, and Mills a relative bargain. Trent Brown has been ok too. Below average but technically a value of sorts at left tackle. You’re paying a below market rate for a below average guy so not huge.

So in free agency he did well on the defensive side of things. I think he could use some help figuring out the offense. If someone like BOB comes in or JR from Tennessee maybe he brings in better voices. Then again those guys had their misses on offense when they ran things.

SMU_Sox said:

There is a difference between BB the GM and BB the coach. You're moving the goalposts.





5 of those years were in the 1990s. Why are they relevant? Don't you think he's learned a lot since then? The finances and rules of the game have changed like 3 times.



So for the first 2 SBs Brady was... average to above average for the season? So point Belichick? Did Belichick not build that team? This year the defense has a bunch of playmakers too.



Bruce Arians was a good HC and an excellent offensive mind. Also note that you're talking about a HC here. (Football Outsiders and other media outlets wrote about how the Bucs could potentially win a SB because their coaching and other personnel was excellent and that Winston was that bad. Turnovers are the worst thing you can do in a game and Winston had a record many of them).

And I predicted them to win that year given how good the situation was...

Spoiler

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5 of those years was his first head coaching gig. If you were to base how a guy is to do in a job and you're bringing up stuff from 30 years ago I'd say it is worthless. His most recent performance is a better indicator. 2020 he didn't do a great job as a GM but going 7-9 with that turd was impressive. 2020 again made the playoffs with a rookie QB which is a rare thing. As a coach Bill is still very good. This year he is having a hiccup on offense. Let's give him some time to adjust. Again if you want to talk about Bill the GM that's fine. There is a lot more I would criticize vs Bill the HC. Bill the HC is still good.

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Let's also not forget that 2008 happened.

When BB took a Matt Cassel lead team to 11-5, and missed the playoffs. The only 11 win team to ever miss the playoffs, if I'm not mistaken.

Deathofthebambino said:

Let's also not forget that 2008 happened.

When BB took a Matt Cassel lead team to 11-5, and missed the playoffs. The only 11 win team to ever miss the playoffs, if I'm not mistaken.

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I thought it was 1/4 but I could be mistaken. It is very rare that it happens! I did in fact mention it on the other page here but since... well since this thread got derailed it is already long gone.


Personally I see getting to the playoffs with a rookie QB as an obvious indication of a successful year even if this year is muddled. FFS he got the fuck awful Cam team with that roster is 7-9. /sigh. Going to be a lot of angst until next year. Fair to some degree of course but I wouldn't be picking out a gravesite just yet.

@Deathofthebambino you were right, they were the only team since the playoffs expanded to 12 teams. Before that it was the 1985 Broncos.

SMU_Sox said:

I thought it was 1/4 but I could be mistaken. It is very rare that it happens! I did in fact mention it on the other page here but since... well since this thread got derailed it is already long gone.


Personally I see getting to the playoffs with a rookie QB as an obvious indication of a successful year even if this year is muddled. FFS he got the fuck awful Cam team with that roster is 7-9. /sigh. Going to be a lot of angst until next year. Fair to some degree of course but I wouldn't be picking out a gravesite just yet.

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Gotcha, kind of skimmed the last couple of pages. Couldn't believe how much I missed in a few hours and was trying to catch up before the C's and Bruins got going.

SMU_Sox said:

I think the mistakes Bill made this year was he didn’t get enough OL depth and he chose the wrong OTs.

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While I agree with your take in total, the bolded has been a recurring problem. For the life of me, I don't know why he doesn't draft or otherwise acquire enough OL. Seems like we always have exactly five starters, one worthwhile backup, a couple of projects, and a jag or two. Once a guy goes down, the line is a little compromised. Once it's two guys, it's like a screen door on a submarine. I mean, it's great that he has a DL/OLB rotation that runs so deep that he can swap them out like a hockey line change all game, but ffs we're always two injuries away from a traffic cone at guard or tackle. It seems like it's been like that for a dozen years, but we've been lucky enough to avoid getting burned by it sometimes.

edit: it pisses me off that he lets big FAs walk and only then drops a high pick on a guy, basically treading water. Not enough pipeline imo.