his era is a mirage, he walks a fucking ton of guys and never stays in games long. He's just about a lock to be a 4.5-5 era starter in Fenway and a giant waste of money.
Offseason rumors
- Thread starter opes
- Start date
- Status
Yeah, there's also a good chance Rafaela is a 3-4 win player year-in, year-out because of his defense, and that he pushes 4 and 5 some years because he has a good run of batting luck. We have, uh, one of those guys as a position player right now, unless Story rounds back into form and Casas becomes much better defensively.
Ceddane hit a cold stretch in the bigs and undoubtedly struggled to adjust, and will never be a guy with good bat-to-ball skills, but he's very young and the pop is very real. When he goes on a tear... watch out.
I'd be sad to see him go for a starter, not because it's not necessarily the right move, but because I have a hope he's going to be very fun to watch for a very long time. I honestly hope they move Duran instead, because although Duran was great last year, he's a drag defensively a prime position and there's no way he'll keep the .400 BABIP, as the historical data shows that literally no one ever does.
This is more of a function of Grissom getting rushed to Atlanta at the age of 21 with 98 AA at bats. He didn’t even have a chance to make top 100 boards before he lost eligibilit.
If you feel Ceddanne can be the center piece of pitching I think you are setting yourself up for massive disappointment.
This is how I see it too. I doubt anyone with inside info is just giving it up voluntarily - they’re trying to signal the market in some way (or it could be a give one, get one situation but less likely with a local reporter). In this case, it’s not a Red Sox team source as there’s really no benefit to leaking this because it could potentially impact leverage in trade negotiations. It’s unlikely to be another team as they wouldn’t have insight into the Sox spending constraints (again why would the Sox want that info leaked). So the most likely source is an agent. And my guess would be to keep the Sox as a potential destination (whether real or perceived) for one of the top names on the market.
Of course the source is an agent, as the reports are based on what the Sox are telling players they are interested in signing, not sure why that’s even up for debate. Any report should be looked at with some skepticism based on who is the likely source and why- but the same goes for leaks that make the Sox look good, like those suggesting they were all in on YY. Hopefully this is all media driven creation and the Sox aren’t looking to dump quality players just to create payroll room. Time will tell!
Agreed--I'd prefer to roll the dice with Imanaga if they're going to go with another high-risk guy
Snell's ERA is definitely a mirage, he doesn't have good control, and he wasn't high on my list for the offseason.
Having said that, other teams know this as well and there are fewer dumb teams than there used to be. These things are probably baked into his price.
At age 31 on a short-ish term contract, I would still be happy with him (again, if the price is right). He threw 180 innings last year and has consistent 95 mph+ avg fastball velo for awhile. There's more than 1 way to succeed as a pitcher and he's been good.
I think he's as good of a bet to be a 3-4 WAR starting pitcher next yaar as we are going to find, so I hope the FO is sniffing around if the price comes down.
Having said that, other teams know this as well and there are fewer dumb teams than there used to be. These things are probably baked into his price.
At age 31 on a short-ish term contract, I would still be happy with him (again, if the price is right). He threw 180 innings last year and has consistent 95 mph+ avg fastball velo for awhile. There's more than 1 way to succeed as a pitcher and he's been good.
I think he's as good of a bet to be a 3-4 WAR starting pitcher next yaar as we are going to find, so I hope the FO is sniffing around if the price comes down.
It's the difference between normal leverage and something extra based on a reputation of spending. Boston, like any team with a need and money to spend, can be used as leverage. But the leverage an agent can invoke by implying the Red Sox are interested in their client is less (possibly significantly so) than the implication that the Dodgers or the Mets are interested. The Mets, Dodgers, Phillies and Yankees all have the reputation, right now, of spending what it takes to get the player they want. The last time the Red Sox did that was in 2015 when they signed Price. I don't think the Red Sox have that reputation anymore, and thus don't think an agent 'gets' anything extra by having them involved.
That's a 8-year-in-making mirage. Career 3.20 ERA and 3.44 FIP. Pretty big sample to be fool's gold.
Yeah I don’t get the Snell hate. He’s older, 31, so wouldn’t want a lengthy contract but he’d be a large upgrade over anything else the Sox have.
No doubt, but no one can deny there's a worrying trend in the BB numbers. Not since 2016 has he posted a BB/9 over 5. In the last three years he's been at 4.8, 3.6, and 5.0. before that it was mid 3's for three years.
The guy is a good pitcher, not really a workhorse but solidly and consistently available, but if the stuff diminishes at all going into his 30's (and let's face it, for most guys, it does), then what've you got?
I'd be down for a smaller contract, like a lot of others, but if it starts stretching into the 4-6 year deal range, I'd balk.
Sorry if I wasn't clear, I meant the 2023 2.25 ERA (3.44 FIP).
He is a good pitcher with good stuff, he just walks a lot of guys and got kind of lucky last season.
I'm 100% on board with him as the Red Sox opening day starter, as long as the price is reasonable.
All fair points, but every team isn't in on every player at every point of every FA or trade season. I think it's also fair to say that the Sox seem to be in a very different place this off season than they have been in the past few. As for reputations... are those forever set in stone?
Even in Grissom's breakout year in 2022, I think Keith Law had him towards the back end of his midseason list. And don't get me wrong, I like Grissom, but I don't think the industry considered him as the same level of prospect as Rafaela.
I don't expect the Sox to get a good controllable arm for just Rafaela, but I think he'd have more value than Duran or Abreu, and that a controllable starter would be available for Rafaela + a Houck/Crawford type + another prospect on the same level as Yorke. I don't think it will take Anthony, Mayer, or Teel.
Sure we do. There were plenty of reports of people declining to even interview for the job. We don't know why that is or who a top choice for ownership might've been, but top baseball minds were wary of a move to Boston.
Even Breslow would only come to Boston as the POBO. When his name surfaced, he looked like a great candidate for the GM/VP of pitching development job, so he was able to leverage that to jump the promotion ladder from what would be regular promotions. Frankly it looks like the Sox got lucky with this and got someone young, smart, and with a lot of energy and creative ideas, but because it worked out doesn't mean ownership isn't getting in its own way.
I think a big part of the problem is that Snell has only rarely pitched a full season (3 out of 8 seasons with 25+ starts), so he's only put up an average of 2.8 WAR per season (prorating 2020, he's pretty similar by both flavors of WAR).
If you go by bWAR, Snell's career has been particularly Jekyll and Hyde, wtih two amazing years (2018 and 2023) boosting up four years of mediocrity and two middling years (which includes 2020).
Given the realities of aging, there's a very solid chance that Snell's next five years look like Chris Sale's last five (one excellent year, one decent year and three crap years).
I get that you are saying that you're anticipating that all of this will be factored into his market, so with that in mind I'm curious what you think a reasonable and realistic deal for him would look like.
I think that Snell would be a very high variance signing, but I agree with you that if the market correctly values him that the variance wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing. That said, I'm not at all confident that the market will adequately correct.
The problem with giving Snell $200M is what happens when he inevitably loses his stuff?
Imagine the 2023 version of Chris Sale, except he walks 5 batters a game. That’s a #5 starter.
Snell is the kind of signing you make when you’re already a championship contender. Realistically, you don’t have many 3.00 FIP seasons with record breaking LOB%s left in that arm.
Imagine the 2023 version of Chris Sale, except he walks 5 batters a game. That’s a #5 starter.
Snell is the kind of signing you make when you’re already a championship contender. Realistically, you don’t have many 3.00 FIP seasons with record breaking LOB%s left in that arm.
Good question.
To use similar age Aaron Nola as a comp (who I think is probably marginally more desirable than Snell, but not by a lot)...
Fangraphs crowdsourced Nola for 6/150 and he got 7/172.
They have Snell crowdsourced at 5/125 (again, our shared concerns likely somewhat baked into that projection, as I've seen other predictions higher). Snell's market seems a bit soft, but who knows if that's true.
Of course a 3 or 4 year deal would be preferable. Something like 3/90 or 4/110 might work if his market is soft (Snell may ask for an opt out in there). Even the Fangraphs crowdsourced 5/125 at a 25M AAV isn't totally unreasonable to me.
I've seen some 6 or 7 year contracts floated at 170-180M range, basically what Nola got. That would definitely be a no-go for me.
Basically... I'd only be in on Snell in certain market based situations. But he is very good and his stuff has not declined at all yet. If you have him for 5 years and he has 2-3 more really good ones, that could turn out to be a solid contract at 25M AAV.
If Snell is going to get 200M I agree we should be way out on that.
Maybe I'm incorrectly reading the tea leaves, but I think all teams have similar concerns and he may not get that kind of $. I'd be pretty surprised if he beat Nola.
It's hard to tell if there are even leaves to read when everyone's just circling in the Boras holding pattern.
I'd still much rather have Montgomery than Snell, who I think is more valuable to a team with more existing certainty in starting pitching than us.
Is it though? There's no rule they have to open with a near-maxed out payroll, and that might not be a wise thing to do.
They have a bunch of younger players they might want to extend.
They also might want some room to acquire a contract or two if they make a run.
They might also not want to lock in all the big contracts for 2024 and 2025 by overpaying talent this offseason. In 2025, Jansen, Martin, Sale, Pivetta, and O'Neill come off the books. Call it $50M or so. Hard to say, since I don't think they've agreed to contracts for Pivetta or O'Neill yet.
But for 2025, they'll likely need to sign a starter to replace Pivetta, possibly Giolitto. Meanwhile McGuire, Schreiber, Dalbec, Houck, Reyes, Duran, and Crawford will be in their arb years. In 2026 they're followed by Bello, Wong, Winckowski, and Casas.
Cot's has 191 mil. Are they missing something?
View: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WWRsQNsGZkWuJZwlY8--xVBXMJGjh230D45KiHTHuvY/edit#gid=1520401900
This is the redsox payrolls sheet:
View: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zPx_cKCQ7TQjab2kPM4zIhEFSDxrTpLLIEZr2xh5E8g/edit?usp=drivesdk
View: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zPx_cKCQ7TQjab2kPM4zIhEFSDxrTpLLIEZr2xh5E8g/edit?usp=drivesdk
A big chunk of the difference seems to be nearly $5m owed to Turner and Hosmer that's not on Cot's? I trust redsoxpayrolls to provide the most detailed accounting available, but I think there's still a lot of speculation that goes into any of these.
I noticed those two payments listed at redsoxpayrolls. Turner's $4.15M doesn't get added to the 2023 payroll total?
Looking at the payroll data you can see why moving Jansen makes sense.
Minus Jansen they are at 175.
Then you add Hernandez at 17 and say Montgomery at 25 so you are at about 217.
This also suggests the second pitcher is coming via trade.
Minus Jansen they are at 175.
Then you add Hernandez at 17 and say Montgomery at 25 so you are at about 217.
This also suggests the second pitcher is coming via trade.
Yes, I had the same thought; I suppose it's basic math. Given the depth they have in the pen, I think they could survive well without Jansen. If moving him means room for Hernandez, Snell/Montgomery (and presumably a 3rd cost controlled pitcher in a trade), then good heavens we can all declare it's a new era!!
Worst case: repeating the Yoshida mistake and signing yet another mediocre/redundant OF (Teoscar) for $18M per, money that could be spent on a pitcher
Best case: giving up on the Houck as starter experiment, putting him in as closer (or 8th inning guy, with Martin as closer), and getting something decent in return for Kenley
Best case: giving up on the Houck as starter experiment, putting him in as closer (or 8th inning guy, with Martin as closer), and getting something decent in return for Kenley
Rafaela is typically at the back end of most prospect lists as well... I think MLB has him in their top 100 and Baseball America doesn't.
My expectation for Rafaela is JBJ. Certainly valuable, but if you expect anything more than streaky offensive production, you're going to be disappointed.
Teoscar is a proven, dependable RHH power hitting OF. None of the other OFs are reliable, proven power hitters, and most are LHH (O’Neill has power, but the only dependable thing about him is you can depend on him missing around 75 games).
Hernandez has his warts, but he’s not redundant.
Though I agree that I hope this ends up with some combination of Houck and Whitlock in the 8th or 9th inning roles. All the better if that means Jansen and Martin out for prospects with the money used to sign Montgomery. I also agree that top half of the rotation SP is a much bigger priority.
But a RHH corner OF that is proven and dependable would be nice along with it.
Last edited:
I see a lot of people completely overlooking Martin’s usage pattern in ‘23.
If a Red Sox closer were only required to get 2 saves a week, he might be the guy, but I sure hope we’d need him more than that.
He was coddled last year, and his freshness contributed greatly to his success.
This is barely a "rumor" but here is a round up of the market for Dylan Cease from a Chicago writer:
https://ontapsportsnet.com/white-sox/dylan-cease-trade-partners-for-chicago-white-sox-orioles-cubs-rangers-dbacks-yankees-red-sox
I wonder if Mayer, Duran and some lesser pitching prospects gets it done? I'd hate to trade Mayer but for a guy a year removed from a CYA season is where you consider it. Now that Grissom is the top prospect for 2b, with others lined up behind him (Yorke, etc), trading Mayer would only be bad if he turns into a 5-win type player, which is hardly assured, and only means you need a 5-win player in return. O'Neill and maybe Anthony (before long) makes Duran easier to trade, much as I love watching him, and if you solve the rotation issues without a dump truck full of money, signing Teoscar goes down easy.
Cease checks all the boxes for this org: he can be gotten via trade, and they would have at least a full year-plus to extend him and avoid the free agent market (albeit by paying close to top of the market in an extension). If the Sox' biggest vulnerability is out-competing 20 teams for top SPs, then the old sign-and-extend -- which is how we got Pedro, Beckett and Sale -- makes sense.
https://ontapsportsnet.com/white-sox/dylan-cease-trade-partners-for-chicago-white-sox-orioles-cubs-rangers-dbacks-yankees-red-sox
I wonder if Mayer, Duran and some lesser pitching prospects gets it done? I'd hate to trade Mayer but for a guy a year removed from a CYA season is where you consider it. Now that Grissom is the top prospect for 2b, with others lined up behind him (Yorke, etc), trading Mayer would only be bad if he turns into a 5-win type player, which is hardly assured, and only means you need a 5-win player in return. O'Neill and maybe Anthony (before long) makes Duran easier to trade, much as I love watching him, and if you solve the rotation issues without a dump truck full of money, signing Teoscar goes down easy.
Cease checks all the boxes for this org: he can be gotten via trade, and they would have at least a full year-plus to extend him and avoid the free agent market (albeit by paying close to top of the market in an extension). If the Sox' biggest vulnerability is out-competing 20 teams for top SPs, then the old sign-and-extend -- which is how we got Pedro, Beckett and Sale -- makes sense.
Cease is not a guy I want to target given the likely cost. Lost 1 MPH across the board last year, K rate declined for the 2nd straight year, fifth highest walk rate among qualified starters, fifth lowest LOB%.
Cease stuff is in major regression.
Honestly, the more I look at what Breslow is doing, I think the target is going to be a good maybe not great pitcher with 4 years of control.
This team has 2 starters - Bello and Crawford, under control beyond 2025 coupled with very spotty starting prospects. They need controllable arms. The narrative “they only need top end arms” I think is misguided.
I don’t think it’s gonna be some star.
Agree with all of this totally, and I think Mayer + Duran gets the Sox pretty close. Chi might prefer Rafaela with the latter having one more year of control and being two seasons away from starting arbitration, but I think either would be a decent 2nd piece.
They’ve been reportedly asking for top pitching prospects in return, but might not get the, and as such could settle for getting the higher ranked prospect (Mayer) even if he doesn’t pitch. I’d think they’d want a minimum of either Perales or Gonzalez back in said deal, but I could see it working.
BTV calls it a massive overpay by the Red Sox, but I think the market is showing us that (like I’ve been saying for a while) it takes a pretty massive overpay in terms of giving up just hitting “prospects” for starting pitching (ie Sale getting Grissom).
Of those mentioned as even slightly available, Valdez, Gilbert, Cease and Luzardo are the ones that I’d advocate moving Mayer for (I would balk at it being Anthony or Teel, however).
Ok thanks to you both, I’ll keep my enthusiasm curbed. At a discount sure, see if they can right his stuff, but it depends on why it faded.
and to Papi, yeah I’m open to another guy for that package. I guess that’s what has changed, there is reason to be open to a Mayer trade that was more painful before the Sale trade. One of the prior Cease rumors centered around Grissom apparently.
and to Papi, yeah I’m open to another guy for that package. I guess that’s what has changed, there is reason to be open to a Mayer trade that was more painful before the Sale trade. One of the prior Cease rumors centered around Grissom apparently.
It's funny cause I think Cease would be a great target if he'd missed 2022 entirely or something, I just think that one performance is going to weight the ask too much to be worth the risk.
Last edited:
Conversely, that’s why I think they might consider it without a pitching prospect anywhere even close to the top 200 (which the Sox don’t have).
To acquire a young, controllable SP you generally need pitching prospects to go back (Beckett, Pomeranz, Sale) and the Sox are woefully short in that area.
Cease warts (and they exist) are why I think he’s worth talking about (same with Luzardo).
I don’t see a whole bunch of empathy / understanding for players going thru personal off the field stuff.
Yoshida had off field and on field adjustments to make.
Giolitto had a divorce and two team changes to cope with.
I remember the year that I got divorced and it had a huge effect on my business.
Similarly I’d like more focus on club culture. How good of a job are the Sox doing creating an environment that players (existing and FAs) want to play in…. Does the GM and manager treat them with respect? Do they feel they people are honest with them. How flexible is the training and medical staffs to the differing needs of each player? Does it feel like the club is committed to winning?
Fun as it is to discuss the handful of free agents each off-season by definition each of them is going to be priced way above market value. Given the multi-billionaires involved in this game there will always be a club who feels they NEED to overpay and then another club who feels they need to beat that overpay. As a result you are almost guaranteed to find yourself with a contract albatross a few years in.
For me it is less important that we drastically overpay for Snell or Montgomery and more important that we are a club that Bello, Casas et Al want to commit to long term.
Do I want us to be competitive ASAP? Of course I do. But I would prefer that we take another year or too to try to follow the Braves or Astros models so that we are a strong organization in the medium and the long term.
Cease only having 2 years of control hurts.
I think they are gonna get someone who they think they can add value too who is under control for 4 years who hasn’t even been mentioned.
Cease is a Boras client, I strongly doubt we’re going to trade for him.
Mitch Keller seems like a pretty good guess at this point. I figure he’d be more interested in an extension than a Boras guy, and he’d cost less than some of these other names. We also wouldn’t be dealing with an AL team seeking a postseason berth (like with Valdez or the Mariners’ pitchers).
Duran and/or Rafaela and Yorke and Winckowski probably get you a lot of the way there for Keller.
My top choice is Skubal, but he’s also a Boras guy. There’s a story out there about how Vaughn Grissom and Riley Greene are best friends that got me wondering if we’d flip him to the Tigers, but I think Breslow wants someone they can extend.
Mitch Keller seems like a pretty good guess at this point. I figure he’d be more interested in an extension than a Boras guy, and he’d cost less than some of these other names. We also wouldn’t be dealing with an AL team seeking a postseason berth (like with Valdez or the Mariners’ pitchers).
Duran and/or Rafaela and Yorke and Winckowski probably get you a lot of the way there for Keller.
My top choice is Skubal, but he’s also a Boras guy. There’s a story out there about how Vaughn Grissom and Riley Greene are best friends that got me wondering if we’d flip him to the Tigers, but I think Breslow wants someone they can extend.
I think Yoshida being a full time DH will keep up the first half numbers, making his contract fully worth it.
If you're trading from the upper tier of prospects I would hope to get a pitcher with more than 2 years of control. Three would be the minimum I'd like to see when you consider the remainder of Mayer,Teel and Anthony aren't likely to be impact players at the major league level until '25.
That’s not realistic if you’re trying to deal position players for SPs. Other teams aren’t going to assume Mayer is a can’t miss prospect right now. The other two maybe but I hope they don’t move either of them. Anyway Cease is only available because his clock is winding down. A year ago he wasn’t available at all.
- Status