This is now: BB and the direction of the Patriots
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It'll drag past that, unless he's coming back of course, but if he's leaving they'll want to hold him to see if another team wants him, and the new rule doesn't allow interviews until after the divisional round.... and you have to interview for the Rooney rule, so....
And it’ll kickoff with Bill’s presser at about 4:45 on Sunday followed by breathless reporting about what has become the fabled post-regular season meeting between Kraft and Belichick (‘when will they meet? What will Bill’s plan be? Will Kraft try to bait him into resigning? What happens after the meeting? When will we hear?’).
Good lord.
Or he doesn’t want someone who has been horrendous at drafting for the better part of the past 10 years not picking the groceries either.
Here’s something I don’t quite understand, and let’s not just scream “BECAUSE OF BRADY”, but if he was such a terrible GM for the last decade, how did the Patriots manage to play in 4 Super Bowls while winning 3? It’s a team sport and for as much as Brady is the unquestionable GOAT, football at the end of the day is a team sport. And that’s not even with citing the facts that people have in this thread and elsewhere showing that his drafting is about as good as most other teams.
I feel like we have some real blinders on in BBtL because after 20 years of success, some in here seem to not pay too close of attention to other teams in the league. We’re citing how good the Browns are this year, the Browns! The team that has been snake-bit since they reentered the league. Sure, I really want to build a team like they have /s.
What world do I even live in anymore…
10 years? Really? I guess the following don't count:
Jamie Collins
Logan Ryan
Duran Harmon
Jimmy G
Bryan Stork
James White
Trey Flowers
Shaq Mason
Joe Thuney
Malcolm Mitchell
Deatrich Wise
Kyle Dugger
Josh Uche
Christian Gonzalez
Christian Barmore
Rham Stevenson
And bringing in via trade or free agency such notable busts as Darelle Revis, Chris Hogan, Brandon LaFell, Jonathan Jones, Kyle Van Noy, Stephon Gilmore, Malcolm Butler, and so on and so on.....
My guess is Caserio.
I mean, we know BB has final say, but if the personnel department isn't giving him good information, then it's garbage in, garbage out.
Which is why Groh needs to be the first person shown the door next week.
At which point, Mayo bolts to get out from under Bill’s thumb. And the cycle begins anew.
The first three guys on your list were drafted more than 10 years ago, to be fair.
Why? He's been in charge of college scouting for the last 3 drafts, which on balance has been a pretty decent stretch from what we can tell.
2021- Mac (nobody was telling Bill to pass on him in that spot) Barmore , Rhamondre were the top picks
2022- THornton busted, but Strange is a starter (good eval no matter if you think Bill reached), both Jones have been good even if we ended up cutting Jack for being a fuckup
2023- Gonzo looks like a stud, Douglas, White, etc. good start to that draft.
He's been in charge of personnel completely for two offseasons, and the bulk of the moves people were unhappy with happened in 2021 under Ziegler
2022- not much money, but signed Mack Wilson and Jabril Peppers, two great signings and evals
2023- meh, didn't go great, but the misses are all guys who cliffed or got hurt after coming here, long time vets Bill knew what he was looking at there. doubt he asked or needed insight on guys he'd been playing against for 5+ years (one of whom he brought in under a previous FO partnership).
Honestly most of the guys from the worst stretch of the FO are gone.
This alleged meeting that will take place between the Krafts and BB sounds horrendously lame. I really hope that not how these guys operate or interact (and I doubt that it is). We just can't resist a showdown.
In any case, I am hoping this gets resolved quickly. I can't take much more mediot speculation.
In any case, I am hoping this gets resolved quickly. I can't take much more mediot speculation.
The last few drafts look a lot better than Caserio's last few in New England, BB must have gotten better at evaluating talent when Nick left
Reiss this morning on ESPN said the meeting is next Monday.
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After reading post after post on this wonderful board, I find it entirely possible that Bill is thinking..."let me get the f**k out of here while the getting's good"
I wonder how many after-the-season-ends meetings have BB and Kraft had over the years? At least one a season, right?
This guy gets it.
A boatload of people calling for Bill's exile were still playing tee ball when Kraft bought the team. They have no idea what years of uncompetitive football looks like. The rest...apparently forgot what being a perennial laughing stock looks like.
There are V&N comparisons to be made (not here), but to keep it clean--some folks are not being very careful in what they wish for.
Preach on, brothers. I think most of us get it (we have a poll to prove it), let's just hope Kraft does too.
And it's amazing, a 40 year old today was 16 when Belichick was hired. Their entire adult fan experience has been insane success beyond any pipe dream one could ever have. To me it's led to a lot of very fucked up perspectives.
Be careful what you wish for indeed.
Change is going to happen regardless in the next 3 seasons, unless you think BB is going to coach past the age of 75. Perhaps some of us "tee-ballers" who have no idea what we're talking about see an advantage in ripping off the band-aid now when there's a clean slate with the cap, draft assets, and lots of room for a new administration to grow.
There's absolutely downside in change - there's huge downside, probably more than keeping BB - but there's upside, too, because you could land on the guy who's going to be here for the next 10 years. It's better as an org to do that on your own terms when you're not desperate than having to do so the day BB says "I'm retiring" and you're capped out with a 6-11 team.
We're not all idiots for thinking it might be a better decision in the 55-45 sense - nothing about what is coming up is a slam dunk, and I'd say that goes for keeping BB as well.
I’m not firmly one side or the other but if the argument for keeping BB is that the next guy might be worse, that’s an argument for never making a change. Unless you are going to blame the whole frickin‘ mess on Mac, he’s the coach of a 4 win team with a roster than he assembled. Nobody without his track record survives that. The question at hand is should his track record override the more recent results. That’s a tougher question to answer.
I think a reasonable case can be made to keep him, but it sure as shit isn’t based on the fact that (a) the team used to stink before him, and (b) they might stink again after him.
I think a reasonable case can be made to keep him, but it sure as shit isn’t based on the fact that (a) the team used to stink before him, and (b) they might stink again after him.
I mean, the argument isn't that the next guy might be worse, it's that you have a guy who has been historically the best ever at doing something that we know has ups and downs over long periods, he has had less downs even in his "Down" periods than anyone else. The next guy almost certainly will be worse, likely significnatly. NOW... it might not matter, because the situation is far better going forward than it was the last 4 years.
To me the best argument for a change is not that the next guy will be better, but that you need to have a next guy anyway because of Bill's age, and the nature of a real rebuild is that they likely need 2-3 years at least to be contenders, and that Bill being the best coach ever has more value separation on a contender than a rebuild, so you should start trying to find the next guys you think can give you Bill level value in aggregate now.
Of course the leaks out of the building are not encouraging given the links almost exclusively to guys (both coaches mentioned, and I heard Breer talking GMs and his sources for Pats is I think usually JK) who were here before in some capacity... because Kraft may want to move on from Bill, but has sold himself a bill on the "Patriot Way", so he'll be looking for a guy to "continue what we built" instead of the next Bill to come in and do it his own way.
Yes that’s the argument. But that’s not the argument from anyone saying “be careful what you wish for” or “you short timers don’t remember when the Patriots were bad”.
What coach is that? I think it's far more likely you hire a GM and get an upgrade then hope you get a good coordinator turned coach then you hire a coach worse than BB and hope he turns out to be a better GM without any history.
Sometimes i wonder if a high school kid reading a couple of different Kiper type reports and never watching a single piece of film couldn’t do better at drafting. Maybe that kid doesn’t find the diamond in the rough - the hidden gem that nobody was looking at - but I’d guess the floor of those drafts would be pretty high.
I don't know where you get that, I had just a moment to chime in on a post I agreed with, obviously my thoughts go a whole lot deeper than what I posted. I certainly think all options are on the table, as they should be. I have no issue at all with a thorough evaluation resulting in a well thought out conclusion whether Bill stays or goes. If anything, my comments were directed at those comments I've seen that put forth that canning the best coach who ever coached is the one and only way to go. More of a pump the breaks kind of thing.
And really, I'm just truly blown away that such a large cohort of fans really hasn't seen real adversity. It wasn't a shot at younger folks, their perspective is just lacking context. I was on my honeymoon 24 years ago when Bill quit the Jets, and never could have dreamed up anything like what happened since. I'd just like to see a smooth transition, and after weighing everything, I think we're more likely to maintain success in the future if Bill Belichick leads that transition. I could certainly be wrong. Like everyone else, what I don't want is the extended futility most dynasties face when they're over.
Either way it sure as hell won't be boring.
I love Belichick but half these guys are either extremely unremarkable or drafted 8--10 years ago. The last good draft the Pats had was 2016.
I want Belichick to stay. But I don't think using mostly a bunch of role players is really a glowing recommendation.
I believe BB is the last one in the league with both titles. KC has an unusual structure since where there is a GM who reports directly to the owner, but Reid has final say on football matters. They've gone through at least one GM during Reid's tenure.
The argument for me is really as simple as if Bill gets fired, is he going to be the most in demand coach available? I think the answer is yes or close to yes, and given that if you think he’s not going to be willing to see a GM hired here he’s probably not going to be willing to go somewhere he doesn’t get GM responsibilities, it seems to me the only two conclusions are either:
a) whichever teams go after him are making a mistake, or
b) letting him go would be a mistake
Perhaps that’s an oversimplification and the argument is of course a team with a built in good offense and poor defense would want him in a way Kraft might not. Or maybe you feel one way if the Pats have a top 3 pick and a different way if they have the 5th, but I just have a hard time squaring the idea that Bill is a great hire for someone else but would be bad to keep in house. If anything, it feels punitive to me, like well he’s blown the last 5 years so he has to go. But if teams think he’s the best option for the next 5 years, that’s all that should really matter in my opinion.
a) whichever teams go after him are making a mistake, or
b) letting him go would be a mistake
Perhaps that’s an oversimplification and the argument is of course a team with a built in good offense and poor defense would want him in a way Kraft might not. Or maybe you feel one way if the Pats have a top 3 pick and a different way if they have the 5th, but I just have a hard time squaring the idea that Bill is a great hire for someone else but would be bad to keep in house. If anything, it feels punitive to me, like well he’s blown the last 5 years so he has to go. But if teams think he’s the best option for the next 5 years, that’s all that should really matter in my opinion.
Great NFL head coaches are a dime a dozen. Should be no problem replacing the guy who's brought us 6 championships but has done nothing for us lately.
I think Wiggum has a point in that CD wrote out much of what is in some of our heads quite eloquently, unsurprisingly since CD is an excellent poster. Straight dismissiveness (on my part, not yours) probably comes off poorly. Fair play.
My point was that it's pretty obvious to some of us that the "well, it can't get any worse, so why don't we try something" folks haven't fucking seen how much worse it can actually get. That doesn't mean that all posters considering the Replacement of Bill are that myopic. Some figure that Bill ain't long for the business given his age, and now's as good a time as any to change. I disagree but get that sentiment. That's not everyone though. My disbelief is at the "well it's not working, so we have to do something" mindset. Down years happen in every franchise, and the fact that this is the first real negative run for this one since Bill Clinton was president says a lot about all levels of the org, ownership, BFB, and of course Brady. Some of us are seeing the "whack Bill" talk as a lack of perspective, and frankly, it is. But the "is now the time or do we wait until he is a babbling idiot someday" talk is understandable.
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The problem is a lot of fans believe this is true. We'd end up with a lot of draft night "steals", but not many good players. The media does not have the resources or access to evaluate players that NFL teams do.
The next guy is guaranteed to be worse over a 20-year period than BB has been. But there's no guarantee he'd be worse over the next 2, 3, 4 years. We had alchemy with Brady, BB and RKK. We're likely to be a regular middling franchise in an increasingly average, parity driven league going forward. Every team over a 10 year period that doesn't have a Mahomes is going to be lucky to break .500 in the aggregate. That's the league now.
Probably pretty terrible honestly, in part because they likely wouldn't really understand how players fit together. It's the biggest issue with when people second guess drafts. Like if you just went of Kiper ranks you wouldn't be able to tell what players work in what schemes, so you'd end up with an O-line of half guys who need to be zone, half guys best in gap. You'd end up with 4 outside corners and no slot guys, all specialist edge rushers with speed and no weight, etc. etc.
Honestly for all the talk about reaches by Bill, those generally turn out as well or better than his chalk picks.
Look at his 1st picks the last few years...
2019- Chalk with Harry.... bust
2020- "reach" for Dugger.. hit (chalk would have been Denzel Mims)
2021- Chalk with Mac Jones... meh
2022- "reach for Strange",....we'll see, but looks like he's at least a starter. Chalk would have been a QB (Willis) or non-QB I think Booth, who can't get on the field consistently for a bad MIN Secondary
That's a great point, and looking at it now, I see how mine may have come across that way as well. No way @Ralphwiggum could assume I thought anything deeper than what I wrote, and the response was definitely fair. I should have taken the time to write my follow up in my original post.
Is it Monday yet?
2020 draft wasn't good? And I know it's only been a year, but I don't think you'd really find anyone who says the 2023 draft isn't trending strongly towards good. Very few guys on that list were/are role players.
Top Patriots drafted since 2014 (Approximate Value to NEP)
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nwe/career-av.htm
Andrews- 50
Mason- 50
Thuney- 45
White- 42
Wise- 33
Bentley- 30
Butler- 30
Jackson- 26
Flowers- 25
Myers- 25
Make of this what you will. Pretty light on offensive skill players, although of course we had some pretty good ones in the first five of the last ten years (and obviously a list like this is skewed towards guys who have been here longer).
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nwe/career-av.htm
Andrews- 50
Mason- 50
Thuney- 45
White- 42
Wise- 33
Bentley- 30
Butler- 30
Jackson- 26
Flowers- 25
Myers- 25
Make of this what you will. Pretty light on offensive skill players, although of course we had some pretty good ones in the first five of the last ten years (and obviously a list like this is skewed towards guys who have been here longer).
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I’m a bit surprised folks are underwhelmed by the article. I get there’s nothing super surprising - you expect some discord on a losing team…but if the article is half true, there are some pretty big organizational issues.
There has been a lot of chatter on here about Belichick the coach vs Belichick the GM (a valid topic/debate), but we haven’t talked much about an equally important dimension: Belichick the CEO. He runs the whole football operation and you need everyone to be on the same page and aligned on strategies, techniques to be coached, etc. And you need to foster an environment in which individuals (players and coaches) feel they can benefit by doing what’s right for the team. The article reveals some major concerns in that area. The fact that people are even speaking out is its own sign of problems.
I’m not saying all this as a big BB critic - he’s been an amazing coach and ceo (and often an amazing gm), but 20+ years is a really long time. It may just be time for a change - that doesn’t have to be an indictment of BB or the Krafts.
There has been a lot of chatter on here about Belichick the coach vs Belichick the GM (a valid topic/debate), but we haven’t talked much about an equally important dimension: Belichick the CEO. He runs the whole football operation and you need everyone to be on the same page and aligned on strategies, techniques to be coached, etc. And you need to foster an environment in which individuals (players and coaches) feel they can benefit by doing what’s right for the team. The article reveals some major concerns in that area. The fact that people are even speaking out is its own sign of problems.
I’m not saying all this as a big BB critic - he’s been an amazing coach and ceo (and often an amazing gm), but 20+ years is a really long time. It may just be time for a change - that doesn’t have to be an indictment of BB or the Krafts.
I think it's pretty standard. Every bad team has stuff this bad or much worse, if you have a really bad season there is always going to be this kind of stuff. Every bad team people are trying to apportion and shift blame, and there is tension in every losing org. The only time you don't get this stuff is when you're consistently really good. Only thing that felt surprising was the insinuation that ownership stepped in before the season and pushed Bill on coaching hires, which would show to me a reversal of what made Kraft a good owner, which is he stayed out of the way. Hire a guy, fire him if you want but never meddle. Part of a pattern the last year or two... maybe it's Robert getting old, maybe nepo-baby is trying to make his mark, or maybe they always had that bad owner DNA in them and we didn't see it because of the unprecedented success, but the days of the owners not getting involved in the football side seem to be coming to an end.
Yeah if that shit is even true. Maybe Robert is getting involved...maybe Jonathan is asserting himself. 25+ years of not doing that is enough of a track record that I'm going to have to hear it from a Kraft's mouth.
I wasn’t really calling you out specifically, I’ve seen a lot of that in these threads since the topic of Bill’s future has come up. Some combination of “the next guy might be worse” and/or “I remember when 4-12 was the standard in Foxboro not a down year, be careful what you wish for.” I think everyone understands the next guy picking the groceries isn’t going to have the career that BB has had, that’s obvious. So in that sense, he will be “worse” over the course of whatever his tenure is in Foxboro, without a doubt. But the relevant question is whether he’ll be better for the rebuild (particularly on offense) that has to take place starting with this year’s draft. As I noted, I can see reasonable cases both ways and don’t really understand how anyone can be so positive that its either time for him to go or he should stay. I think it is an incredibly tough call.
I was 27 when BB resigned as HC of the NYJ, 29 when they won the first Lombardi and I am 51 now. So like you I grew up and lived the era of the Pats being a joke of a franchise and am incredibly grateful for what BB brought to the franchise, the 6 Lombardis, just plain having a team that was in discussion as a championship contender every year for two decades. We'll never see that again. That said, I think one big difference between then and now is that you have to have a much higher degree of confidence in the Krafts as owners than any of the string of clowns who owned the franchise back in those days, which matters a lot in the NFL if you look around at the teams that have able to generally remain contenders over long stretches. But regardless, fear of going back to being a bottom tier franchise should not stand in the way of change if change is the right thing to do. It’s an argument that just doesn’t hold any weight for me.
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Chalk would have been Pickens over Tyquan by about 3 rounds. Chalk would have been not trading up in the 4th for a K when the team was riddled with holes at virtually every position on offense. I think generally Bill has an above average record in the 1st, but the middle rounds have been not great, especially on the offensive side of the ball and he recovers significantly late in the draft and with UDFAs. The fact they haven't drafted an impact WR in the 1st - 5th rounds since 2002 can't be lost in the draft discussion. It is a blinding weakness anyway you cut it. When the best WRs you draft are converted college QBs it tells me the process is largely broken whether that is scouting or Bill overriding scouts I don't know but the results speak for themselves, they are the worst in the NFL by a significant margin when it comes to drafting WRs.
I do think a lot of it stems from Bill not valuing the position nearly as much as the rest of the NFL instead opting for an offense lead by 2 TE and slot WRs which was obviously very effective for a period of time but I think the NFL adapted to that offense quicker than Bill realized by simply taking away the middle of the field and WR heavy offenses now dominate the NFL and he is left with the equivalent of a bend but don't break offense which more often than not breaks because it lacks any big play ability.
I wonder what BB the CEOs personality is like vs what we see in press conferences. I usually find his communication in press conferences sometimes amusing, but if my boss spoke to me like that when I asked him questions it would be a horrific place to work. He’s so arrogant and dismissive in press conferences, it would make for an incredibly toxic work environment if that’s how he was with his staff. Again, not at all saying we can make that correlation as it’s quite different, but I’d be willing to bet that at least some of that dismissiveness is evident with his staff. It’s hard to turn that completely on and off. Someone I know did have a chance to meet BB once and they told me in that one interaction he was as you would expect given his personality displayed in press conferences (this was not a press conference, just a random interaction with BB where he acted like the jerk you might expect).
You can't make the correlation but will anyway? Some random interaction tells us little to nothing.
I have no idea what Belichick is like inside Gillette. I do know several players have said his personality is very different than what he shows to the public.
I have no idea what Belichick is like inside Gillette. I do know several players have said his personality is very different than what he shows to the public.
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