I may have missed someone posting a link, but it looks like Duvall is choosing between the Sox and the Angels. I think we win that one, and I'm ok with it.
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Speculation that the MFY will eventually land Snell. Theirs is the only offer - and you have to wonder who else is interested in Snell at the prices he wants.
When JD Martinez was on the market after 2017, wasn't Boras originally asking for $200 million or thereabouts? Scott aims absurdly high sometimes. Snell will probably end up getting about $180 mill, or he might have a contract loaded with innings-related vesting options and player opt outs etc.
Yep! It was Nightengale too! I don’t think it was a coincidence that this $240M asking price came out in the same article as Monty seemingly off the market.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/jd-martinez-rumor-200-million-asking-price.html
There was a story a couple weeks ago that the Yankees made an offer to Snell (5 or 6 years, $150M) that he turned down. Since then, they've signed Stroman so it's questionable whether the offer is still on the table.
Thanks. That's the only one I'd heard about. Wasn't sure if this was a new rumor or not.
And for the zillionth time, why in the hell are the Red Sox not in on Montgomery? If he signs with Texas for $150 mill or so, Red Sox fans will have a fresh reason to be outraged.
I’m positive the Red Sox have been engaged with Jordan Montgomery.
I’m positive the Rangers have been engaged with Jordan Montgomery.
Jordan Montgomery remains a free agent. He has not found his number and/or market.
Agreed. I should have been more clear in my initial post. I think the market for Snell might be a little softer than originally expected so Boras is leaking that Monty to TEX is a done deal to create the impression that Snell is the last remaining pitcher available. The $240M figure is meant to show interested teams that there is a robust market for Snell.
Absolutely true. But with the blanket of gloom currently hanging over this offseason, if you had a poll here on whether the Red Sox will sign Montgomery or not, I'm guessing that No would win in a landslide.
I’d vote yes.
Some people have concluded that the vocal posturing about not needing another SP, payroll going down, etc., means they’re out. It is as likely IMO to mean that they are playing chicken with Boras over one of his SP clients.
Nope, we have all the pitching we need! We’re not bidding against ourselves to spend $250m on a pitcher worth $150m! But if the asking prices come down a bit…
I so hope you are right, but if that's the case ownership is playing with fire trying to sell the fanbase on a "wait for the kids and enjoy the majesty of Fenway" strategy rather than just spending money on the damn team.
This is a choice you (and not just you, I am just using your post as a jumping off point) are making.
This offseason has certainly not been perfect, and I want more (specifically another SP and a RHH power bat, much like everyone else).
But the way I see it:
A full season of Casas' 2nd half production, combined with a likely rebound from Devers offensively (last year was his lowest OPS+ outside of 2020), a rebuilt middle infield (with a full season of Trevor Story) that should help the entire pitching staff, a Yoshida that won't be wearing himself out in the WBC, a starting pitcher replacement for Chris Sale who can be reasonably expected to put up 60 more league average innings than Sale can be expected to, a lot of relief pitching depth and a new 7th starter in Fitts for when injuries inevitably happen.
This is a team that was 1.5 out in the Wild Card at the start of August last year before entirely falling apart down the stretch. Why they fell apart is something worth discussing (probably in another thread), but so far what that team has lost is Verdugo (replaced with O'Neill, who is a similar player, but, in my opinion, a better fit for the roster as a RHH), Duvall (who everyone seems to wishcast for even though his CF defense left a lot to be desired and his bat was carried by a completely unsustainable two weeks in April, outside of that week and a couple good weeks in August he was dreadful), and Justin Turner (who I love, but who also helped write real time novels about the fall of Rome). Obviously they also lost Sale, who I still love to watch pitch, but that move was a no-brainer. The only player they have "lost" that has signed with another team so far is Jorge Alfaro.
I hope that Grissom is able to stick at second base. I don't think it can be overstated just how much having even bottom half of the league defense at the position, as opposed to "almost the worst in recorded history defense at second base" could be for this team. They were the 8th worst team by Outs Above Average at 2nd base since the advent of Statcast in 2015 (belive it or not the Orioles were worse, but they made up for it by having Gunnar Henderson at SS instead of a half a season of Kiké Hernandez making it look like you or I could play out there).
Again, this team needs another starting pitcher (please not Snell, I got frustrated watching him pitch for not the Red Sox, I don't think I could handle him in Fenway), but while not signing Montgomery would be disappointing, it wouldn't be the end of the world. Another RHB for the middle of the order would be great, too.
The last few years have been frustrating, but I really don't think this team is so far away from competing as to warrant the "gloom currently hanging over" them, as you put it. A lot went wrong last season, and the team admittedly put themselves in a position where things going wrong would spell disaster. I already think this year's team is much better constructed than last year's, and there are still some moves to be made.
Do I think they are currently the favorites to win the AL East? Sadly, no. But I think a lot less has to "break right" for them this year than last for them to remain competitive through the second half of the season. Breslow has, in my opinion, done a good job of massaging some holes on the roster to fit better while improving the upper minors SP depth (seriously, don't sleep on Fitts, dude is a legit mid-rotation prospect, getting him from the Yankees for a year of Verdugo while replacing Verdugo with O'Neill is a really, really sharp move), and without giving up any of the major prospect capital for a stopgap. I think he has done a really good job this offseason, and wish ownership would stop shoving their foot in their mouths and making things harder for him.
I’ll say again that (1) I do not believe the FO is negotiating via media with Bora, and (2) if they are then they are monumentally stupid. They’ve utterly lost the fan base.
The “it’s just Boras negotiations” people simply do not want to believe reality which is this….
The Red Sox are cutting payroll
The Red Sox are not willing to give out long term contracts.
The Red Sox do not feel the 2024 team is one worth investing in.
The Red Sox are in a very questionable spot with controlled starting pitchers.
Rather than invest in players they feel the route to go is a revamped pitching dev program.
Great post @LogansDad ! I feel the teams has the potential to be much better than last year’s team. Does that mean they make the playoffs? Not sure. But they played the AL East hard last year and sucked against the teams in the 25% of baseball.
Ownership needs to fade in to the background and let Breslow work…. unless they want to sign Montgomery by filling up a bag.
I totally admit I might be wrong about this, and I will also say that I don’t see how it really serves them in the long run to (in the case in which I am right) “win” a negotiation at the cost of what seems like pretty bad damage to the brand.
Yeah, it’s not what I would choose, but I’m not the guy who needs to face off with Boras, either. It might well be penny wise, pound foolish.
I think they might well be cutting payroll, especially relative to the Dodgers and Mets. That doesn’t actually bear on the question of where Montgomery will sign, unless you think his likely landing spots are Queens or Chavez Ravine. They can “cut payroll” relative to the top spenders in the league and still add a lot of money in contracts. The real question seems to be whether we’re outspending TX and SF for him.
I can see how they may have become much more skeptical of long term deals to SP after basically needing to trade Betts to ditch Price and Sale’s extension paying off so poorly. But the full spectrum of the Sale/Price experience, I think, suggests the can’t live with ‘em, can’t live without ‘em nature of such deals. It also suggests that holding down the dollars matters, because you might be paying someone to take the deal off your hands in a few years.
Building on the last one, it may well be that the time is not yet ripe for a big pitching investment, but I don’t really see that, and doubt they believe that. Even if 2024 is a year for improvement towards contention rather than real contention, 2025-26 should be more squarely competitive rosters, and Montgomery should still be helpful at that stage.
I totally agree with you that they don’t have the pipeline in place to homegrow an entire rotation. But I think that both horns of your last set of choices are true. As a result of not having the pipeline yet, we need to pay retail for SP; the shitty value proposition of paying retail is a sign that we should really move mountains to get that pipeline in place.
It does make a perverse kind of sense, though. It’s like Breslow is saying to Boras, we’ll sign JM for (madeup numbers) 5/$140m, and we think that’s the best offer.
Then Boras says, trying to generate leverage: ok, but your fans are clamoring for you to add pitching, and they will be increasingly upset as the offseason wears on if you don’t give JM 7/$210m.
So the Sox’ recent “we suck” PR blitz is basically them shooting the hostage. It hurts them, sure, but it also deprives Boras of his leverage. It has to work, though: otherwise, it’s just a massive self-inflicted wound.
Then Boras says, trying to generate leverage: ok, but your fans are clamoring for you to add pitching, and they will be increasingly upset as the offseason wears on if you don’t give JM 7/$210m.
So the Sox’ recent “we suck” PR blitz is basically them shooting the hostage. It hurts them, sure, but it also deprives Boras of his leverage. It has to work, though: otherwise, it’s just a massive self-inflicted wound.
Sam Kennedy said directly “I expect payroll to be lower in 2024 than 2023”
He wasn’t talking about the Dodgers or Mets. He was talking about the Red Sox. They are cutting payroll. I don’t know why people refuse to believe it.
It doesn’t make sense at all, IMO. The front office is going to willingly torch the last remaining shred of goodwill with their fanbase for “leverage” with an agent over one free agent in one offseason? I’m sorry, but that strikes me as unhinged conspiracy theory type stuff.
I like Jordan Montgomery and would like to see him on the 2024 Red Sox. I think adding him to this year's team would instantly make them a playoff contender for both 2024 and 2025.
That said, and while this isn't really a "devil's advocate" thing (because it is an honest argument), up until the second half of this season when he was pitching in front of Texas' defense, he has mostly been a reliable, good to very good starting pitcher, and when you sign him you have to assume that you are going to get something closer to the .690-.720 OPS against pitcher than the .630 that he posted in Texas. Add Fenway to that, which is like a death trap for LHP, and I can see why the team would get cold feet handing him 7+ years at $20-$25M plus.
There are pitchers that it is worth breaking the bank for. As much as I like Jordan Montgomery, and really want to see the 2024 Red Sox add another reliable starting pitcher, I am not sure he is the right guy to do that for.
great post, man. Totally agreed (but at this point not putting money on their year even for Jimmy Fund). Get those two players and we’ll talk.
Yup. Lower in the absolute. Not lower in context of other teams.
I mean people can support this approach if they want. But they shouldn’t make stuff up.
I guess I also don't buy the "negotiating through the press" route. Is Boras going to tell his clients that he stopped talking to the Red Sox because they issued a press statement that could be interpreted as "we're good"? No. He's talking to the Sox, if for no other reason than leverage to other teams (though if so - joke is on him). The only reason to involve the press is to relay information to fans and use that to either gauge fan interest/sentiment in a player or try to shift the blame for not getting something done, i.e. "we offered player x $YYY and they said no thanks." What would be the point of "negotiating through the press" here? Hope that Boras comes crawling back because the fanbase is absolutely unenthused about Snell/Montgomery and he wants any deal all of a sudden? Or the fans get whipped up about the possibility of getting something done and suddenly Boras feels pressure? I can't imagine that either of those scenarios are true because they make no sense. I think the answer is simpler: the Sox told us they weren't enthusiastic about spending, relayed it to their fan base because they are terrible at messaging, and it has nothing to do with Boras.
Also, FWIW, Chris Sale from age 27 until age 30 was far, far better than Jordan Montgomery has ever been, outside of the final two months of this past season. And we already know how that worked out.
This seems very much like what Boras's strategy has been for a few weeks now, I think. I'd add the possibility that no matter what we might have offered, if he thinks the Sox are a major player, then Boras was going to wait until after the Winter Weekend before considering regardless. It only increases his leverage. He knows the PR hit was going to be huge (and he's surely helped fuel it).
Boras clients typically wait until close to spring training anyway, and this year there was the additional delay of Ohtani and two different int'l signing windows to wait out.
Of course. The next to last guy got canned for the deals he gave to Price and Sale and their subsequent underperformance. The owner is on record as not loving huge free agent deals, especially older pitchers. Why many seem to think that the team is going to go back to doing exactly what they thought was a mistake the last time around (now whether to really was or not is another issue) just as they are out of the deals is beyond me.
I don’t know what numbers that Spotrac is using, but they have 2024 payroll currently at $180 million. Their 2023 number for the Red Sox was $182.9. So they are pretty much where they were last year.
I think it’s pretty simple. They are telling everyone that they think that $180 million is enough to build a competitive ball club if it is spent correctly. That’s why they fired Bloom, he got the payroll to the number that they wanted it to be, but his teams weren’t competitive. So they brought in Bloom hoping that he and his staff will have a better eye for acquiring and developing young cost controlled talent.
Like it or not, that’s the plan. They are telling everyone that that’s the plan. There’s no 3D chess with an agent going on here.
I think it’s pretty simple. They are telling everyone that they think that $180 million is enough to build a competitive ball club if it is spent correctly. That’s why they fired Bloom, he got the payroll to the number that they wanted it to be, but his teams weren’t competitive. So they brought in Bloom hoping that he and his staff will have a better eye for acquiring and developing young cost controlled talent.
Like it or not, that’s the plan. They are telling everyone that that’s the plan. There’s no 3D chess with an agent going on here.
I've wondered about this, and I think it's a separate discussion from the ownership discussion.
What if Breslow and his people just really don't like Montgomery or Snell very much, even less so at the numbers that they're asking for? He obviously can't come out and say that. What if his plan has been to make a splashy trade, but as the market has developed, he's learned that the price for a cost controlled pitcher is higher than it's ever been? Again, I'm not really sure how he would properly communicate that.
Ownership has said some stupid things, no doubt, but I think this offseason may be a bit more complicated than just a bait and switch. I don't know this, I'm just wondering about it.
I think they are likely in communication with Montgomery's camp. I have no clue what the bidding for him is (the post you responded to was an addition to my previous post where I argued that Montgomery is reliably good to very good, but not really a shatter the piggy bank kind of pitcher).
If I had to put a number on it, if I were the Sox (obviously I am not), I would probably be comfortable going up to a 5/$150M kind of deal. I think more years than that at that value and all of a sudden you have an aging (hopefully not yet ineffective) starting pitcher eating in to your ability to extend Bello and Casas, and, fingers crossed, the last arbitration years of Teel/Anthony/Mayer (but that's an argument for a different thread).
Unfortunately, I think that Boras probably sees that offer as a serious lowball offer, and there is probably a team out there willing to beat it by quite a bit.
I believe there are occasionally 30 year old pitchers worth breaking the bank for. I remain really, really unsure that Jordan Montgomery is that guy.
I would still be happy if they signed him in the coming weeks, though.
This is pretty much my thoughts, said much more clearly and succinctly than I was able to convey them.
Lower than *what* in the absolute?
Payroll now is already within a few million of what it was in 2023, as I read the sites. I would expect it to go up at least a little, even if they don’t sign an SP 1.
Or is your view that it’s going to decline further from where it is today?
In any case, this is not as clear cut as you’re presenting it.
i don’t believe what Boras tells his mouthpiece and I don’t believe what teams tell theirs. It’s all negotiation, imho. I hope we get Monty or someone of his caliber (or better), but I won’t blame ownership if we don’t land certain players because money isn’t everything to these guys. Some want to play for certain teams or live their seasons in certain areas, etc. that’s not to say that a poor ownership group can’t make certain teams less desirable. I just don’t think we’re there …yet.
Certainly possible. I don’t really want Snell at anywhere the numbers he might get. I just don’t trust that guy. Montgomery I do want but we don’t know his asking price yet.
As for trades, if he went into this offseason thinking he was going to get a cost-controlled SP with upside without giving up a Mayer, Teel, or Anthony, then he would have been in La La land. Not suggesting this is the case but a trade for an impactful SP was always going to be a low probability event.
So, not really sure where that leaves us. If you balk at FA and trade prices, you’re left with exactly what we’re left with. We had to give Giolito a player-friendly sweetheart deal just to get him in. And that’s the only addition we’ve made.
I just don’t see a clear direction here.
The guy who runs the team said the payroll will probably be lower than last year. I guess the use of “probably” gives him wiggle room.
That's entirely possible, that Breslow just isn't all that high on either guy. That said, two issues: first is that ownership conveyed that the team was going to be competitive this year and that pitching specifically was a weak point last year. No, I dont believe ownershi, but a number of fans do and it puts Breslow in a tough spot of his bosses telling the customers one thing and he knows the opposite to be true. I put that on ownership more than Breslow personally, but that's what FSG has done. Second, virtually every FA ever has had warts. YY was too expensive and an unknown. Jm and Snell are older and have various metrics that don't work in their favor. The next Prime Predro wanting to sign for league minimum because he just loves the Sox so gosh darn much isn't going to happen. At one point, a FO has to accept that big dollars being paid to flawed FAs is just the way it is. I get that every FO has their value, but if the Sox value is consistently lower, they are going to lose out. I may think a fast food burger shouldn't cost $20, but if it's the only place open at the last rest stop for 100 miles and my kids are starving... I'm probably going to pay for it, even if thats not what I think it should be worth.
ETA: for the sake of clarity, in my analogy the kids are the needs of the team (the team needs pitching, kids need food) not the whims of the fanbase.
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Yeah I've been pining for Montgomery for months, but if I sat down for a beer with Breslow and he told me they thought he'd just be a mediocre fit, I'd totally buy that. Just spend that cash on some extensions in that case please?
Can you please provide a list of all the players the Red Sox are and are not in on? You seem to have inside information that the rest of this board, and the people who cover the team professionally, are lacking.
Your original post asked, “for the millionth time, why the hell” aren’t the Sox talking to Montgomery. Now you’re shifting to, I think a poll of Red Sox fans would show that Red Sox fans do not believe that Montgomery will sign here. So, are the Red Sox talking to Montgomery or aren’t they?
And what did he say immediately after that? And what do you think the effect on future negotiations would be had he said that payroll “will probably be a little higher” this year, or even “about the same”?
Montgomery has been one of the more obvious Free Agent targets in a while. Reminds me of JD.
It’s just going to come down to years and they might not get there.
I don’t think there’s any effect whatsoever. This is my point. They’re not having clandestine negotiations with Boras via press conference quote. They’re just saying stuff.
This doesn't make sense. If they play this game of chicken and got him for $150m the fans would be upset that they didn't offer $60m more? I don't think Boras would have had the success he's had if this was his negotiating strategy.
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