Of course, thanks. Although he certainly didn't get the types of numbers we've heard bandied about for Snell or Montgomery.
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Yeah, the last big one is what, JD and Price? Been a while and the Price deal, at least, kind of sticks out as an abnormality in Sox history and probably not the kind of deal Henry is itching to sign off on again.
9 years 270 for Snell is amazing. I wouldn't want him for that aav over 4 years, much less 9. He's played 8 years, is going to be 31, and has 21 war. About 1000 ip and 71 wins.
It wasn't too long ago that you expected signing an ace for a 4 or 5 year deal to get about 21 war, 1000 ip, and 71 wins.
It wasn't too long ago that you expected signing an ace for a 4 or 5 year deal to get about 21 war, 1000 ip, and 71 wins.
Nice, I’ve been trying to distill it down but couldn’t quite get there.
There is added complexity for Boras here, in that everybody (= his clients) has to win. Unless Montgomery gets some kind of market setter, somewhat unlikely, that’s how.
I don't disagree. My point being that the only way I see Snell getting $30M per is if Monty goes first for $27M+ per and all of a sudden two teams get in a pissing match to get the last "premier" starter left on the board. IMO that perhaps gives Snell a bit more leverage if he wants to get anywhere near that amount and I'm totally shocked if he gets anywhere near 9 years.
And all this is probably why we're a few days from February and both guys remain unsigned. Both want/need the other to go first. Sharing an agent makes it awfully tough to out-maneuver each other too.
Yeah, I think it’s the other way around. From the salesman’s perspective, with Snell you are pushing a narrative that the CY seasons are more the norm than they’ve been like “what if you raised the floor on those bad years and still got the CY caliber season every 3 or so years?” With Monty you’re selling consistency (I really want this guy, give me steady fucking Eddie at a B- for the next 5 years).
I think the biggest issue for Boras is the Sox are the target team for that Snell pitch (new pitching guys, “big market” without an ace, money to spend) and they’re not interested in either long term deal.
I don't think it's that they won't spend, it's more *why* they aren't spending that has Boras hamstrung.
I think this falls into the two separate prevailing views around here, that the Sox aren't a top 5 payroll. My view is not quite so categorical, but that they won't spend into the top 5 if they don't like the value. So what this stalemate means isn't that the Sox capped payroll, but rather that they have refused to take on the risk of a giant contract for pitching.
What Boras is getting wrong is that he thought the market would boil over for starting pitching the same way it has for big-name position players, as recently as last winter. But it's not the same. The Red Sox are on the forefront, apparently, in not believing in this strategy, because starting pitchers just come with inherent risk, especially past a certain age (although someone here said they view Yamamoto as the riskiest contract ever, and I don't totally disagree). But it's NOT just the Sox, it's the Yankees, Blue Jays, Giants and whoever else is supposedly "in the market" for a starter and were supposed to respond to missing out on Yamamoto by just surrendering all of their assets for the over 30 guys because Boras' binder said it was the right move. I'm not all for John Henry and his money, but it's pretty fucking arrogant for Snell to be out there saying he still wants 9 years. Emperor Boras maybe has no clothes here.
The Tigers 83M deal for Colt Keith, touches a nerve for me — damn sure the Sox would extend Bello and/or Casas and/or Swanson and/or ATM before it’s too late. Not wanting to blow thru the cap on contracts for expensive starting pitchers almost certain to be 20+M mistakes in 4-5 years is one thing…. Staying under the cap without investing in the kids strikes me as just not wanting to spend.
There's not really anything to read into when it comes to not having already extended Bello or Casas or Grissom or any of the top prospects yet to make it to the bigs. Sure it'd be nice to extend some/all of them now, but there's no real rush yet since they're here for at least 4-5 years still. And the player also has to be willing to do the deal. We should understand by now that there are players who are just hell bent on getting to free agency. The list of those guys is easily longer than the guys who locked themselves in before they were even arbitration eligible.
Are they not doing this? It’s January. Lots of these things happen in spring training because there are more urgent matters to deal with beforehand.
It doesn't even matter if that pitcher's a first ballot HoFer. The numbers tell us that a 31 year old front of the rotation starter likely has 3-4 years in that role. How much you're willing to pay for those 3-4 years is the only question to be answered.
Id still put the Sox into that group along with Houston, Philly, Cubs, SF and there are a few second tier teams that will splurge (Twins, Cardinals, Seattle, Detroit, White Sox).
There’s plenty of markets available every season but there were a few teams that are backing off, have already hit a ceiling on their budget or are looking into the future more than present…. And suddenly IMO there’s only 2, maybe 4 max, teams for 2 flawed pitchers.
Cohen really hasn't stopped spending. He made a higher bid than the Yankees for Yamamoto, which the Dodgers then matched. And he was very smart last year, sending huge amounts of cash with Verlander and Scherzer in their trades to get really good prospects.
The 2024 Mets may have taken a step back, but after the season, Steve Cohen will have the checkbook out for pitching to go with his emerging position prospects.
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View: https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/1751969666161946683?s=46
Turner is a leader and fits perfectly fine with this roster, which needs a right handed bat and corner depth.
It’s going to suck to see him go.
Turner is a leader and fits perfectly fine with this roster, which needs a right handed bat and corner depth.
It’s going to suck to see him go.
It's not the money, it's just more important to give Bobby Dalbec some runway.
I didn't mean to suggest that a nine-year deal for a 30+ SP is ever a good bet. Just that if your giving a 9 year deal, you probably should expect the first 5-6 years to be high-level performance. If you're only getting 3-4 years, then you don't want to be carrying an albatross for the last 5-6 years of the deal.
That's not to say that maybe you wouldn't do a 7, 8 or even 9 year deal if the AAV was low enough. I mean, I'd probably do 7/150 for Snell or Montgomery, but I doubt either is looking for that, and I expect either could get 150 or close to it on a shorter deal.
This offseason has been so nuts that I absolutely cannot tell if this is a joke or not.
Because you might be right. They might want to see if he can be a corner asset against lefties. Or you might be joking. I legitimately have no idea.
An offseason to never forget
Heh. Joking. Dalbec isn't an asset. As indicated by the 493 plate appearances with a 34% K rate he had with Worcester as a 28 year old.
I don't think Dalbec is going to be on the team. But if he is, "we simply aren't going to spend on someone more expensive", as sad as that would be, is still a much more palatable explanation than "we think Bobby Dalbec can help this team more than Justin Turner".
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I understand the ramifications of losing him both because of his numbers last year and he can be a mentor, but at the same time, he's 39-years-old. I'm inclined to think that last year's performance was a swan song rather than a peek into what's ahead in his future. This isn't going to be an Adrian Beltre situation, which is why I was really hoping that they'd sign a RH bat younger than Turner. I think that he's going to want two years.
I understand what you are saying and it looks like they are trying to get younger…. But….
Right now Bobby Dalbec is on the roster. Period.
So they are signing or trading for someone that can play first base and hit right handed.
Turner is the best option available to sign who accomplishes both those things.
I'm sure he doesn't.
He's going to get more than $6.5M from someone. Possibly by a lot.
I like Turner. Great personality and good leadership. But “impact corner infielder “ is a stretch. Not getting younger and really trailed off… 114 OPS+ isn’t bad but not a number to be banked on going forward.
IMO, opting out was no-brainer. The next couple of weeks should give a better indication.
Agreee, but his 1.2 fWAR last year ranked 6th among Sox offensive players. Looks like we may lose three of these guys, and so far, the only additions are O’Neill and Grissom.
Devers 3.1
Duran 2.4
Verdugo 2.0
Duvall 1.9
Casas 1.7
Turner 1.2
I’d give his spot (and Duvall’s) to someone younger. Leadership on last place teams is overrated. Yoshida and Abreu could replace and O’Neil might surprise.
Forgot about Grissom and Story also…
Turner to the Sox for one season, and one season only..... made sense for the Sox but he's likely to get a two year deal. He does perfectly solve the problem (backup corner IF spot and DH platoon with Yoshida, power RH bat) better than anyone else on the market so I don't get why the Sox don't make an aggressive one year offer at least $1M more than his QO.
Really.... it's just him and Montgomery from a playoff spot IMO. If I'm believing that Kennedy/Breslow are looking at the roster and don't see that those two additions are playoffs quality then I'm seriously wondering why the F they let Bloom go... or Henry and Co. are using Sox profit and diverting it to other business ventures.
Really.... it's just him and Montgomery from a playoff spot IMO. If I'm believing that Kennedy/Breslow are looking at the roster and don't see that those two additions are playoffs quality then I'm seriously wondering why the F they let Bloom go... or Henry and Co. are using Sox profit and diverting it to other business ventures.
Regarding Story … he’s coming in to this season healthy for the first time in a while and should be settled. He’s shown he can still be an excellent defensive player and is only 31…
I would love the bat to get back to league average OPS+ of 100. That’s a valuable shortstop. But what happened to the 3 WAR offensive player? Can he get some of that back? More contact would equal more power and stolen bases…. Could he find the way back machine? That position has huge positive swing potential.
I would love the bat to get back to league average OPS+ of 100. That’s a valuable shortstop. But what happened to the 3 WAR offensive player? Can he get some of that back? More contact would equal more power and stolen bases…. Could he find the way back machine? That position has huge positive swing potential.
I understand what you are saying here but at the same time. What right handed hitter on this team do you feeling comfortable projecting to put up a 114 OPS+ ?
He's got power but a terrible sense of the strike zone still. I'm not expecting him to be as he looked briefly back in May and June of '22 or as bad as he looked when he returned last season at the plate but something around .270/.310/.430 combined with insanely good defense would be great and realistic target.
Turner might get them incrementally closer to the playoffs but what they really need is players who give you 2 or 3 WAR or more. A 1.2 fWAR is something we should be looking to upgrade, not simply replace, I would think.
Luckily, I see a lot of internal improvements on this roster. Story has never posted a fWAR below 2.0 excep 2017, so you can probably at him to that list. If he's the 100 wrc+ guy he was the two years previous to this one, that's a 2.5ish fWAR player. Hopefully Devers goes back to being a 4+ WAR player, Casas' defense is good enough to be a 3 WAR or so player, and Grissom comes out the gate a 2.5+ WAR player. If Abreu can give them 1 to 1.5 WAR, Yoshida 2ish WAR (by just sustaining his plate discipline he should get there), then the gap between them and the Wild Card should be closed considerably even if you don't add Montgomery (which I remain bullish on them doing given how his market seems to be collapsing).
That's banking on a lot of improvement and bouncing back, but there's reason for optimism with a ton of these guys. Add to that the potential for a guy like O'Neill to be anywhere from a 1 WAR to 6 WAR guy and hopefully Duran giving them at least 1.5 WAR and I just don't really see the need for Turner on the roster, especially as he's in decline and a bad defender and the team would really like to rotate Yoshida, Devers, and Casas through DH, I imagine.
Is there really a better potential upgrade via fee agency that is more impactful than going form Bobby Dalbec to Justin Turner? On the position side of things. I'm not sure there is
That's the thing -- I don't know the Sox can guarantee Turner a full-time role at DH or that he can back up the corners next year, and given their glut of outfielders, it might be better to just rotate guys through the position -- but my point is really just that Turner isn't a difference maker, and losing him shouldn't make too big of a difference either way. There's half a dozen guys still on the market who can replicate what he offers without the risk of old age if we really wanna add a DH type.
Certainly not when you (appropriately) add in the requirement of not taking on long term deals.
It seems to me that your argument depends on Turner, reproducing his results from last season. There’s no guarantee of that, especially in his age 39 season.
Who? What right handed hitter capable of playing first is comparable to Turner offensively?
No question. But again, we have a free agency pool. There isn't a guy on that list who hits right handed, can play first, and available on short money that's better than Turner
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Bingo. Nobody is guaranteed, particularly among the options still on the table. But Turner is by far at the head of the class when you look at the intersection of those three categories (and also consider can play 3B, or even 2B in a pinch).
Thank you. I agree with you that the Sox aren't necessarily out of big money contracts - they just don't see value in spending it on pitchers in their 30's who are going to be dead money for the last 3-4 years of their contract. It's not like either Snell or JMont are aces by any stretch. It's also not like we're in our contention window with our young core in place. One or two years from now , when Teel/Anthony/Meyer have arrived, it might make more sense to sign one of these guys.
I just don't see the urgency to fill that role that you do, and in fact I think adding a RH-hitting 1st baseman who's a bad fielder and who is only probably gonna give you a wrc+ of 110, who would need to be played at DH most of the time, hampers their roster construction for the sake of about 1 WAR. Turner on the roster means you need to play Yoshida in LF, Casas at 1B, and Devers at 3B basically full-time, which hurts the defense over the course of the year as well.
I would honestly prefer they have Dalbec there to cheaply fill that role against occasional LHP and rotate Casas, Devers, Yoshida and Abreu through DH than spend 10 million and a roster spot on a guy who might fall off a cliff this year. The team already has 3 DHs, we don't need a fourth.
I don't understand that argument. We have two holes currently: DH and corner IF backup. Turner can fill both as a good everyday hitter. Dalbec can fill both as a bad everyday hitter. "rotating through" just means Masa DHing most of the time (cause let's be real, Casas and Devers are our guys on the corners) and then you need another LF to cover his spot unless you're banking on all of O'Neill, Abreu and Duran being adequate everyday guys, but you still have to keep Dalbec around cause you haven't plugged the corner backup hole. That sounds like a mess to me.
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