Offseason rumors
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After Kennedy made the statement about payroll being lower he also said this:
We were engaged with some long-term, high-profile free-agent discussions that we didn’t match up on.
Looking back on this, and admitting to possibly over-parsing things, what strikes me is that he seemed to be purposely speaking in the past tense. Nothing in there about the offseason being far from over. And then he talked about how "there will be a day" that they pursue high-profile free agents again. He really seemed to be delivering the message that the Red Sox offseason was done with except for some smaller moves.
I have a Romy Gonzalez autographed rookie card buried so deep in my "Trade" box it might actually be in the compost bin.
Now I need to dig it out, as clearly he's on his way to the Hall of Fame, and becoming my not-yet-conceived grandchild's favorite player ever.
I guess I don’t see “probably “ lower or “ similar to last” as cutting payroll. Especially when some decent free agents are still available and that comment could have been thrown out to agents.
I do think those comments are almost as dumb as the full throttle.
How is "smaller payroll in 2024 than they did in 2023" not "cutting payroll"? Like if your boss said, "JB, your paycheck this year is going to be smaller than last year's" you wouldn't think you got a raise, would you? I suppose you can read the sentiment however you see fit but I don't think that the Sox are playing 4D chess with agents, they're telling us exactly what they're doing.
And I agree, these comments are incredibly dumb and worse than that, depressing.
Isn't it clear what they're doing? The Sale-for-Grissom trade says it all: they are focusing on the long term, not 2024. If they can surprise everyone and make a run this year, like 2013, that would be great. But they are absolutely not going to make any moves that will make it harder to be competitive down the road. To that end, I'd be astonished if they signed either Montgomery or Snell to a five-year deal -- they do not want to have big money tied up in a player who's likely to be declining. I can't see Soler, either -- they already have two DH's on the team for the next several years. I suspect they're looking for patches, like a veteran, middling starter on a short-term deal. And if they can unload some useful guys who will not be here for the next phase of Red Sox greatness, like Jansen, they probably will.
I thought she was his sister. Is the franchise moving to Alabama? Is that what this crazy offseason has actually been all about?
We definitely agree they should just stfu.
As someone who has run finance departments forever… Holding or maintaining expenses are the way to communicate. The phrase “cutting expenses” is an inflammatory/negative comment that will be taken a certain way by a certain section of the company and/or investors.
Not sure why they couldn’t say our original projections were higher but the market changed and we may not be able to acquire assets that maximize investments that help reach our strategic goals… that include competing for championships.
Because while season tickets were for sale, they were telling people they were going full throttle. Now they are trying to blame the market because they know every agent on Earth is going to use the National Media to slam FSG for their grift.
Look the right to run the PGA tour for a couple of years and buy off enough politicians to let the Saudi's buy in doubling that investment is going to be expensive. If it is any consolation they are looking to pull back in Liverpool next year as well.
I think the trick is upgrading what we have at this point, not finding the perfect complimentary piece. Say, essentially replacing Refsnyder with Duvall or the like. (Duvall can also play 1B, FWIW.) Or hypothetically moving Yoshida which would allow you to take on a similar RHH bat-first player.
I disagree on the shrug though. There's some unanswered questions, but this is a good lineup when viewed through the glass-half-full lense.
Casas and Devers are two top 10 or top 15 hitters.
And while it's cherry picking, first-half Yoshida outhit them both. So that gives you a core of 3, if Yoshida trends upward, which seems reasonable.
The main right handed supplement to that core are O'Neil and Story. Both come with health question marks, but Story in particular seems like a good bet to rebound. Both were all-star types, but a return to just short of that gives you a very long 5 places in the lineup.
The three wild cards are Duran (box o chocolates), Grissom (may have an adjustment period, but a good bet to be good), and Abreu (same.)
Wong will just be Wong.
Our main utility guy may be Rafaela, Reyes, or Gonzlez, with Valdez as a bat first LHH option.
Last year to this year:
C Wong - Wong
1B Casas* - Casas (but up to speed)
2B Arroyo - Grissom
SS Hernández - Story
3B Devers* - Devers
LF Yoshida* - Yoshida or Abreu/Refsnyder
CF Duran* - Duran
RF Verdugo* - O'Neill
DH Turner - Yoshida
I'll rely on someone else to view it through the glass half-empty lense.
I'm definitely not holding by breath but I do hope a big reason they're not really going after Montgomery/Snell is because they plan to make a strong push for Fried and/or Burnes. They are far superior pitchers. Far more consistent and dependable than Snell, more dominant than Montgomery. No serious injury concerns with either. Fried missed some time this year with a forearm strain, but he came back and was immediately the same guy. I believe that's been his only arm injury since he's come up (he had TJ as a 20 year old prospect).
I think both have as good a shot as any to age gracefully, but especially Fried. Doesn't rely on throwing hard, his fastball velo is typically ~50th percentile, but he has three plus to elite secondary pitches he commands very well. Zero platoon split /equally effective against righties and lefties. Doesn't walk anyone. Doesn't allow homers. Strikes guys out at a decent rate but relies more on limiting hard contact at an elite level. His EV/hard hit rates are insane over the last four years. Not shown below but he's also consistently around the 90th percentile in GB%.
But I think my favorite thing about Max Fried is this (career numbers):
- 1st time thru order: 3.26 FIP
- 2nd time thru order: 3.18 FIP
- 3rd time thru order: 3.11 FIP
Compare that to Snell:
- 1st time: 2.61 FIP
- 2nd time: 3.95 FIP
- 3rd time: 4.30 FIP
But if Montgomery's contract is considerably less, as it should be, that changes the argument.
Blah blah blah. This is the same stuff from when they bought in to Liverpool 15 years ago. They run a diversified portfolio of businesses and have investors to answer to. It’s not a hobby.
They are going to invest where they believe appropriate. It’s very clear they don’t believe long term, expensive investment in free agents on the downward part of their careers are good investments. Probably true but stinks for us.
If Yamamoto wanted $250-$300m from FSG, I believe he would be here. And they would still invest in golf.
That PGA deal is going to make them way more money than investing in the Red Sox or keeping the spending up in Liverpool. It is a long term mess but a short term cash cow.
Just for the record, I totally get this entire line of thinking, and certainly from the perspective of the fan. I'm trying to think of it from the perspective of what I would do if given the chance to run the Red Sox. Maybe I shouldn't think of it this way, maybe I should just shut up and watch the games and hope they win more this year than they did last year and not take the "average fan as GM mindset" but I find it interesting, and when teams are bad (which I think this one is going to be) it's a way to stay engaged on your favorite team beyond saying "well, they suck", I'll go watch reruns of Psych (love that show).
So with all of that in mind - and to be clear, I'm projecting my thoughts onto the front office and nothing more (though I feel a little bit emboldened about this because I was almost spot on about last year's team, about the way the Yamamoto situation played out, and about what I think is happening in terms of the free agent market and the trade market, as things that I've been saying for a loooong time - and to be clear, I hope Breslow et al, in the words of Lou Brown, give me a nice big s**tburger to eat) however, what I'd be telling FSG is...
I'm sorry, but your organization kind of stinks right now. This isn't YOUR FAULT (sure, I'd be pandering to them) in that you made a hire of someone you thought would be good and he wasn't. Happens all the time to plenty of good franchises, but that's why you fired him and I'm here now. Plain and simple. It's been four years and what that GM added to your team is a wonderful but totally fluke run to be the 4th best team in baseball one season and beyond that he added 3 excellent prospects by drafting in high spots (because his teams stunk) and really nothing else.
I know he didn't add much else because I've been trying to trade basically everything else he added and they have no value on the trade market and the two guys he added that DID have any value (excepting ATM) were moved back in November (or early December).
Bloom's idea that you can win significant baseball games and compete for world series titles in Fenway Park in the AL East by doing nothing but using your own draft picks, not focusing on starting pitching and dumpster diving with yearly versions of guys that aren't good enough to command more than one year deals is nearly always going to fail (yay, you might be the Kansas City Royals once). Doesn't matter if he's doing it, I'm doing it or the GM in 10 years is doing it. But what the prior FO built and what we presently have isn't close to good enough. Our payroll is at approximately $200m right now, and if you want me to go out and spend $30m on three separate one year deals and light your money on fire, that's your choice, and I'll do it as best I can, but that's not going to win you anything, and I want to be clear that you are the ones asking to spend that money, not me.
I, on the other hand, am advising you to wait. Lets get rid of things that aren't part of the core for pieces that might be (ie Verdugo for Fitts, Urias for Campbell, Sale for Grissom) and when I'm able to make those deals, I'll replace those guys with one year players in hopes to move them at the deadline too (O'Neill for RF; Giolito for Sale). Hopefully my not taking $30m of your money and wasting it to sign Mike Lorenzen, Jorge Soler and Michael Fulmer to go from 76 wins to 80 wins will give me the good graces of when I suggest making a move that WILL actually help the ball club contend for titles (lets call that signing Fried or Burnes) you will listen, because I haven't been wasting your money.
Anyway, that is why if I were in Breslow's shoes, I wouldn't be spending a dime unless it's for long term assets (yes, I'd sign Montgomery) or if it's to replace someone you've moved for a core piece (case in point, I really hope they're able to trade all $16m of Jansen and $7m of Martin together to get another version of Dickie Fitts and then sign two players to replace them). I'd make it very clear that the strategy of one year deals to pretty fungible players is highly unlikely to lead to anything with the current construct of the organization, so I'd rather save their money for something that WILL be good. If he is instructed to spend money for the sake of spending money, that is FSG's call, not his, because that strategy won't lead to World Series titles. But it's better to see if any of the guys that have no trade value now (Valdez, Abreu, etc, etc) can play their way INTO having trade value or be good parts for the future than light $30m on fire to still miss the playoffs by 8 games instead of 10 games.
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I guess my reply would be “how sure are you about that?” Right now Fangraphs is projecting us for 81 wins…tied with the Rangers and only a few games back of the Jays for the last wild card spot. It’s definitely a high variance team given our youth but with some good breaks and some incremental spending, we can certainly be in the wild card picture.
And if I were John Henry I would ask, if you didn’t think we could compete this year, why did you “light $20M of my money on fire” for Lucas Giolito?
Breslow appears to be taking a page from Bloom's playbook by sticking around until the music stops, and then taking the last asset standing, who will probably turn out to be damaged goods (cough Story cough).
Think of Giolito as a controlled burn, so that the next $20M burns more safely.
When I think of this dynamic, the first instance that comes to mind is Dombrowski with J.D. Martinez. In my mind, the delay with Story’s market had more to do with the lockout.
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https://x.com/ken_rosenthal/status/1753224946594283794?s=46&t=_NspJPTa_Z0bzVq7nnSw0g
Sorry I’m having trouble posting the correct link format but Burnes to Orioles. New owners didn’t take long.
Sorry I’m having trouble posting the correct link format but Burnes to Orioles. New owners didn’t take long.
View: https://twitter.com/jeffpassan/status/1753225084263620725?s=46&t=7XazH1NKZP26a4WUZikbkQ
The Baltimore Orioles are nearing a trade to acquire former Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes from the Milwaukee Brewers, sources tell ESPN. Deal isn’t done but is trending toward it.
The Baltimore Orioles are nearing a trade to acquire former Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes from the Milwaukee Brewers, sources tell ESPN. Deal isn’t done but is trending toward it.
To the first, I’d respond with it much higher degree of confidence than I am in everything going exactly right. Also, if things do break well, the things that we’re talking about now are generally available at the deadline (good hitters, bad defensive players on short deals - case in point Schwarber was acquired for nothing, I can’t imagine much was asked in return for Adam Duvall last year, etc).
To the second - I actually answered that in my earlier post. If things that aren’t part of the core from the MLB team (Verdugo, Urias, Sale) can be moved for things that might be (Fitts, Campbell, Grissom) THEN replace them with one year deals that can hopefully be flipped at the deadline (ie O’Neill, Giolito).
So, to tie back to Soler, I’d have literally zero interest in signing him at this moment. But just to play the game, say someone WOULD take Yoshida at full salary off the books right now. Once that is done, absolutely sign Soler for 1/$15m, and try and move him in July too. But with Yoshida (and the other half dozen OFs already here) there is no reason to do it.
New ownership and zero long term payroll commitments… I still wouldn’t bet on it but they might be in play to keep him.
View: https://twitter.com/jeffpassan/status/1753226557043138764?s=46&t=7XazH1NKZP26a4WUZikbkQ
Shortstop Joey Ortiz and left-hander D.L. Hall are going to the Milwaukee Brewers in the trade that will send Corbin Burnes to Baltimore, a source tells ESPN.
Shortstop Joey Ortiz and left-hander D.L. Hall are going to the Milwaukee Brewers in the trade that will send Corbin Burnes to Baltimore, a source tells ESPN.
Oh, okay so apparently the price for Corbin Burnes was not very high at all. Joey Ortiz is a low power, contact-oriented bat with decent defense. And DL Hall is a major relief risk whose velocity was down most of last season.
Full trade per Passan is Ortiz, Hall, and the 34th pick in this year's draft. Still seems pretty damn light to me.
View: https://twitter.com/feinsand/status/1753228148227850360?s=46&t=7XazH1NKZP26a4WUZikbkQ
Along with Hall and Ortiz, the Brewers will receive a 2024 Competitive Balance Round A draft pick from the Orioles, per source. That’s the entire deal.
Along with Hall and Ortiz, the Brewers will receive a 2024 Competitive Balance Round A draft pick from the Orioles, per source. That’s the entire deal.
You could argue Vaughn Grissom is better haul than Ortiz and Haul.
It’s close. But definitely not a huge gap.
I’m shocked by it.
I don’t think it means anything. Pedro wasn’t willing to extend either. Make him a good offer, and anything can happen.
That's been his story, but who knows. I'm sure he has a price, especially if he likes being on the Orioles.
He’s a Boras guy. He ain’t extending.
That being said. The FA market for that second tier, cheaper starter, just went to shit.
The hardest division in baseball has added Juan Soto and Corbin Burnes and neither are Red Sox…… shit sucks.
That's how I interpret it. That or the Brewers got really impatient to move Burnes.
Well, he wasn’t willing to extend with the Brewers, so they kind of had to trade him. I imagine his value is higher now, when a team can have him for the entire year and QO him, than it will be later on. The Brewers clear his salary off the cap and can reallocate it if they choose, too.
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