I kind of demo'd this argument in the Minor League forum, but let me craft it a bit better here & prepare for the backlash...
I think the order of preference for me is as follows:
Plan A - Sign Yamamoto or Ohtani
If either player is interested in having you on a level playing field among their favorites, be the highest bidder at almost any cost. Then you could comfortably add a secondary rotation piece if you get Yamamoto & probably two secondary pieces if you get Ohtani.
Plan B - Add two or three secondary pieces for ~decent value
This isn't like 6/$180m for Jordan Montgomery, it's finding a few guys who the pitching brain trusts believes in their stuff, & who have past success, but they think they can get more success out of. Imanaga/Lugo/Flaherty/whoever they identify as actual difference makers at decent values.
Plan C - A year of evaluation
Hyopethically - prices are bonkers, teams are asking for unrealistically damaging packages in return for pitchers who may not even be difference makers...so let's not kill our future trying to compete in a year where maybe we really can't in a way that looks useful moving forward.
i. Data points as to why this may be something they are already considering in some form:
a) Breslow is new on the job & is in the process of learning & evaluating EVERYONE. Cora has one year left on his contract, all the legacy FO people have been put on notice they're being evaluated. Breslow doesn't know whose opinion to trust, yet.
b) Breslow has made it clear they have no interest in trading for players with 1 year left on their contract (rentals).
c) The Red Sox traded Verdugo who is on an expiring contract.
d) The Red Sox haven't done anything yet in terms of acquisitions outside of long-term cost controlled pitching.
e) Breslow has talked a lot about sustainability.
f) Breslow does not have a particular allegiance to the players Bloom has acquired and may not see how they form a cohesive team that is ready to compete.
ii. Why this wouldn't be a bad thing:
a) Time is a flat circle & a '24 where we're evaluating C Note, Abreu, Valdez, etc etc would be a fun & important developmental year. Maybe we call up Yorke, Mayer, Teel & maybe even Anthony by the end of the year & let them keep their rookie eligibility to try to get ROY in '25 & get that extra 1st round pick. Want to try Winckowski as a starter? Mata as a closer? The world is your developmental oyster.
b) This would free us up to trade ALL of our expiring contracts for full value. I want to trade Kenley regardless, but him, Pivetta, Martin, Sale? All in play. People don't want to pay Sale's or Jansen's full contract? No problem, we're staying under the tax for one more year anyway so we'll take on some or most of it for better prospects.
c) Stay under the tax one more year & hoard resources for when it's really time to really make a push. Take the opportunity to make long term commitments to Casas, Bello, or anyone else you think deserves it.
d) Add layers of depth to the system, get all your ducks in a row, & get more of Breslow's type of players into the developmental system.
iii. Why this shouldn't be Plan A (or B), but is better than Plan D:
Yoshinobu Yamamoto & Shohei Ohtani should be Plan A. Both would provide huge buzz & both would likely be even more valuable in '25 than '24, & if they want to compete in '24 to appease them, you do it. If they're on board the '25 & forever train, that's even better, but the fact is, someone is going to pay them infinity $ & if they don't want to come to Boston, infinity + 5 isn't going to get it done.
If the market for guys you like & think are going to help put you over the top this year isn't prohibitive, great. Get it done. But if those things aren't on the table, don't just overpay the crap out of people you don't really believe in to win a press conference or show concrete results or whatever buzzwords you want to excuse for making panic signings to appease the unappeasable. Signing mid players to big contracts is a ticket to being mid. The Red Sox shan't be mid. Bloom got hate from both sides for trying to thread the needle & ~compete while building the farm system. Let's stop the Kluberization of the Red Sox & really build toward something quickly & completely from top to bottom.
iv. The "The Red Sox didn't bring Breslow in to just be like Bloom & the PR would be horrible" argument:
The difference between this plan under Breslow & what we could do under Bloom is 3-fold:
a) We're focused entirely on process & not on trying to win 85 games. Bloom didn't do things in '22 to make '23 better, & it cost us in '23. Taking a step back in '24 so we're loaded up for '25 & beyond is sensible. Seeing if we have the right manager, and the right front office staff, and the right hitting coaches in place is sensible. & we are clearly indicating what our plan is by trading away all the expiring guys & not trying to sell that we're all in on competing when we clearly aren't. By all indications, Casas & Bello are great guys who are fun interviews and fun to root for. Lean into the personalities of the young guys & let them cook.
b) Bloom was mostly given a grace year in '20, especially after the playoff run in '21, with the exception of being forced to trade Mookie. A new CBO can reasonably be given the grace to take some time to get their people in the door & evaluate all systems in a way that Bloom would not get, or deserve, at this point.
c) Bloom would not be able to say at a pre-season press conference the things that Breslow can say. Bloom would not be able to say we don't have the pieces in place to be a World Series contender, yet, and we need to strengthen our base & core talent & make sure we have the correct people in place throughout the organization because people would ask him wtf he's been doing with the past 4 years of his life & how is he suddenly going to be able to make pitching happen out of thin air. Bloom wouldn't be able to say look at all the strides the Cubs made in pitching while I was there, and point to Justin Steele, Javier Assad and several others. He wouldn't be able to say look what I did with the Giants pitching staff & point to Logan Webb, Kevin Gausman & several others. He wouldn't be able to say look what I did with the Twins pitching staff & point to Jhoan Duran, Bailey Ober & several others. Breslow, unlike Bloom, can say TRUST ME, I will develop pitching & we will succeed once we have my players in the door, with my coaching staff, and we will be able to build a sustainable winner.
Would it be better for PR if we drastically overpaid for Jordan Montgomery & Lucas Gioloto? Sure, probably...until everyone realized how bad those contracts were within the next couple years & the way the Red Sox were limited as a result. I think if we don't get guys we are comfortable with at prices were are comfortable with, going all-in on '25 makes a ton of sense. & that can include a big multi-year Brandon Woodruff deal, a somewhat big multi-year Tyler Mahle deal, & utilizing resources for '25 when teams like the Yankees are already trying to flex their financial might & prospect capital for '24.
I need something to dream about.
