Is It Over Now? Chiefs/Niners SB Thread

CFB_Rules said:

I think mathematically, the analytics would say to receive first because regardless of whether you receive first or kick first you can go down the field and put up 8 points using all 4 downs. But only the team that receives first has the chance to end the game in sudden death. Psychologically for humans, you always want the other team to go first.

Put it like this, if you receive first and go down and put up 8 points, the second team has to play basically perfect in order to earn the opportunity to give the ball away in a sudden death situation.

Click to expand...

In practicality though, I can't see a team going for 2 in that scenario. Because getting the 2 doesn't even guarantee a win; but if you fail, the other team can win with just a TD and PAT. You want to force the other team to make a decision. If you kick the PAT on the opening drive, the other team needs to decide whether to match, in which case you get the ball in sudden death; or if they go for 2, you actually have a 52% chance (statistically) of stopping the 2 point attempt and winning on the spot. I think it's much more favorable of a strategy to kick.

There were seven fumbles that hit the ground last night. The Chiefs recovered six of them.

There's your game.

Smiling Joe Hesketh said:

Speaking of:

With the new OT postseason rules, what do people think the ideal strategy is?

I see arguments both for and against choosing to receive the ball in OT if you win the toss.

To me, assuming all other factors are equal, you have to defer. Kick the ball to your opponent, and then after that first drive you know exactly what you have to do, plus you have 4 downs to work with. And if the opponent scores a TD on their possession, you can choose to go for 2 to win the game on yours and not give the ball back to them in a sudden death situation.

Maybe SF felt their defense was totally gassed after regulation and chose to receive the ball to give them a rest. At the same time, to me that's not ideal strategy.

Click to expand...

I think you're right that in an "all things being equal" scenario, defer is the only answer to the question. The ability to know exactly what you'll need to do with the extra down lets you adjust how you play the first three downs is enough. But I think there are fatigue situations, gameplan choices, etc. that could lead a team to take the ball first. Like, I think back to the ATL/NE Super Bowl where NE had just worn the living hell out of the Atlanta defense. I think the Pats take the ball first there even with these rules and force the Atlanta D to stay on the field the Atlanta O to stew on the sidelines. There is also the upside of knowing what kind of defense you need to play on the other side - I imagine a good coach will play something like 3rd and 7 at the 40 differently if they have a 3 point lead vs. a 7 point lead vs. a 0 point lead.

Thinking back on last night, it really was evident how much the coaching gap came into play. Not to take anything anyway from any player (Chris Jones was a monster, and Mahomes is, no caveats, incredible), but I feel like we continued to see SF make poor play calling decisions that punished them repeatedly and KC just didn't. It felt like every time there was an SF All Out Blitz called, either KC picked it up and had a 15+ yard completion ready or KC missed a guy and Mahomes always had an accessible outlet guy to save the play. Whereas if and when KC dialed it up, Purdy often had no one to really go to...and they have freaking CMC and Deebo Samuel on the roster so they very well should have someone that it can be dumped to. Given how the SF D played in general, the talent on SF's O, and that their kicker made two very challenging FGs, there is no reason SF shouldn't have won that game but it feels like they got coached out of it. Kudos to Reid and his staff on that performance.

It felt like watching Brady and Belichick in the SB just finding a way against some behemoths (I also don't buy the competition angle, SF, BAL, and BUF are all stacked as hell teams this year - if flawed). Acknowledging fumble luck exists and they had it - in many cases they do need to be in the right spots and do the right things. And they do. And that's coaching.

slamminsammya said:

inexcusable.

Click to expand...

As long as the coaches know, does it really matter as much if the players did? (I'm assuming Warner was told by the coach to take the ball if he won the toss). What sort of "scenarios" are they planning for?

Watching the 9er’s was like watching Kendal Roy coach football, in the end he had no killer instinct and didn’t fully understand the rules of the game he was playing

Cellar-Door said:

View: https://twitter.com/ArifHasanNFL/status/1757013523966697923


A little note, KC started talking about and practicing what to do under the new OT rules back in training camp, SF never discussed it all season.

Click to expand...

What is there to practice specifically? It's not like college where you need to have a huge package of plays to run from the 25 or whatever. In terms of the decision itself, the coaches knew what they'd do before the game.

Kyle Shanahan on receiving kickoff in OT: We wanted the ball third if it went to sudden death - NBC Sports

“It’s just something we talked about,” Shanahan said in his postgame news conference. “None of us have a ton of experience with it. But we went through all the analytics and talked to those guys. We just thought it would be better. We wanted the ball third. If both teams matched and scored, we wanted to be the ones who had the chance to go win. So got that field goal, so knew we had to hold them to at least a field goal and if we did, we thought it was in our hands after that.”

Shanahan said the decision was made before the game.

Click to expand...

BaseballJones said:

So it makes your life easier in terms of decision-making, but you don't actually get an extra down.

Click to expand...

I mean, I'd want my life to be easier as a coach. The more information I have, the better. And sure the team that gets the ball first can use all 4 downs but in practicality they won't. Odds are a team facing a 4th and medium-to-long on the own side of their field is going to punt. Even Dan Campbell.

I really see no benefit to taking the ball first under these rules. The benefit is basically the 3rd possession becoming sudden death but I have to get there first.

Mooch said:

There were seven fumbles that hit the ground last night. The Chiefs recovered six of them.

There's your game.

Click to expand...

Same kind of thing that happened in both Pats-Giants SBs.

-sigh-

NextBigThing8184 said:

part of the reason the D was gassed was that stretch of 3 straight 3 and outs where they had 8 passes and 1 run. The 3rd quarter offensive playcalling was abysmal.

Kittle being underutilized in the pass game is also a big issue. He got banged up towards the end but 3 targets, 2 catches for 4 yards is underwhelming to be kind and it seems to be a trend for them in the playoffs.

Click to expand...

He was also banged up coming into the game. There was talk how effective he would be in the pass game the past two weeks. But I agree with you. The soft spot in KC D would be Kittle and CMC in the middle of field.

BaseballJones said:

I'm actually wondering if we have reached the point with KC and Mahomes that teams feel like - regardless of how the game is actually going - they need to "outscore" (a euphemism for putting up a lot of points) Mahomes. Which is why, even when they're run-dominant teams and KC has a mediocre-at-best run defense, they insist on throwing.

This despite the fact that KC's offense this year was #15 in points, and in the playoffs scored 26, 27, and 17 points vs Mia, Buf, and Bal. And just 19 in regulation vs SF.

In their last 13 games of the season (including playoffs), going into the Super Bowl, they scored the following points:

9, 21, 17, 31, 19, 17, 27, 14, 25, 13, 26, 27, 17 = 263 points = 20.2 points per game

This was no offensive juggernaut. Not remotely like the KC teams of past years. You can beat them by keeping the score low and manageable.

Miami's rushing attack: #6 in yards per game, #1 in y/att. Ran the ball 20 times vs KC in cold weather. Tua threw 39 times.
Buffalo's rushing attack: #7 in yards per game, #8 in y/att. Ran the ball 39 times vs KC. Allen threw 39 times. (at least they tried!)
Baltimore's rushing attack: #1 in yards per game, #3 in y/att. Ran the ball 16 times vs KC (just like 10-11 times on non-scrambles). Jackson threw 37 times.
San Fran's rushing attack: #3 in yards per game, #4 in y/att. Ran the ball 31 times vs KC. Purdy threw 39 times.

Just unfathomable. All four teams - their best chance to beat KC was to run, run, run, run, run. And only Buffalo actually really gave it a legit effort.

Click to expand...

It may well be that outscoring the Chiefs has become the strategy. But if that’s the case, then I don’t understand why Shanahan didn’t go for it on 4th and 4.

If you were going to take the ball first, you have to be prepared to score a touchdown. You can’t tell me that Brady, McDaniels, and Belichick would have kicked a field goal if James White had been stopped short.

Cellar-Door said:

View: https://twitter.com/ArifHasanNFL/status/1757013523966697923


A little note, KC started talking about and practicing what to do under the new OT rules back in training camp, SF never discussed it all season.

Click to expand...

Am I the only one that finds the fact that the Chiefs were practicing how to respond to overtime rules in the Super Bowl during the preseason to be a little odd? This doesn’t strike me as Ernie Adams-style hyper-preparation. It actually seems a little bizarre.

BaseballJones said:

The two point conversion rate in the NFL is about 48%.

Click to expand...

Yeah, you've just won a 50% chance coin flip and you're picking to kick because (in part) you might end up in a situation with a 48% chance of success?

I count eight ways the first two possessions can play out:

1. Team A punts/turnover > Team B punts/turnover
2. Team A punts/turnover > Team B kicks a field goal
3. Team A punts/turnover > Team B scores a touchdown
4. Team A kicks a field goal > Team B turnover
5. Team A kicks a field goal > Team B kicks a field goal
6. Team A kicks a field goal > Team B scores a touchdown
7. Team A scores a touchdown > Team B turnover
8. Team A scores a touchdown > Team B scores a touchdown

Team A advantages: In all scenarios, you know exactly what you need. In Scenario 8, you have the option to got for two.
Team B advantages: In scenarios 1, 5, and maybe 8, you will be getting the ball in a sudden death environment

I can see the arguments for both. But with a tired defense, I think receiving was probably the right call in that situation.

CFB_Rules said:

I think mathematically, the analytics would say to receive first because regardless of whether you receive first or kick first you can go down the field and put up 8 points using all 4 downs. But only the team that receives first has the chance to end the game in sudden death. Psychologically for humans, you always want the other team to go first.

Put it like this, if you receive first and go down and put up 8 points, the second team has to play basically perfect in order to earn the opportunity to give the ball away in a sudden death situation.

Click to expand...

SOunds like the analytics people say there is no real answer, too many variables and ways to win in the first two periods for there to be much impact to going 3rd if it gets that far.

Basically going 2nd makes it easier to make decisions, but not much real difference in outcomes.

cshea said:

Again, at the bottom of it, the team that gets the ball first in OT under these rules cannot end the game. They have to play defense at some point. If I'm a coach, I want to get the defense part out of the way so I know what I have to do. If I get the ball second, I can end the game.

Click to expand...

Well, they can end the game on a third possession should it get that far. And Shanahan spoke directly about that possibility.

Now, Reid said that KC was going for 2 had SF scored a TD on their first drive. So there wasn’t going to be a third possession regardless.

I think we can argue both approaches and neither is necessarily wrong.

That Reid had been discussing playoff OT with his team for a month is a sign of why they won this game. Preparation. Reid is the new Belichick in that regard.

It's really remarkable how competitive the game itself has been over the last 20 or so years. Since XXXVI, every game except three (Raiders-Buccaneers, Broncos-Seahawks, Chiefs-Buccaneers) has been undecided into the 4th quarter.

Average Reds said:

I get what you are saying here, but Purdy had a great season and certainly played well enough to win last night.

By contrast, Shanahan didn’t come close to coaching well enough to win. So maybe Purdy should pursue a coach who won’t choke under pressure?

Click to expand...

I agree with you here but just have a feeling Purdy will end up in Jimmy G doghouse.

Van Everyman said:

Am I the only one that finds the fact that the Chiefs were practicing how to respond to overtime rules in the Super Bowl during the preseason to be a little odd? This doesn’t strike me as Ernie Adams-style hyper-preparation. It actually seems a little bizarre.

Click to expand...

Bill did that kind of thing. You can do it when the core of your team is settled and you know the playoffs are an inevitability.

Helmet Head said:

I agree with you here but just have a feeling Purdy will end up in Jimmy G doghouse.

Click to expand...

Honestly Purdy had amazing turnover luck this year, even average turnover luck and he looks worse, if he gets a swing the other way season....

Mooch said:

There were seven fumbles that hit the ground last night. The Chiefs recovered six of them.

There's your game.

Click to expand...

Feels like this stat is a bit inflated. I think at least three of these were ones SF had no chance to recover (very briefly fumbled) - did those low snaps count as a couple?

Turnovers were even 2-2.

Re: getting the additional down (4th down). According to NFL data from 2013-2022, teams convert fourth downs at a rate of 51%. Most of the time teams go for it either (a) when they have to, regardless of yards to go, or (b) when it's very manageable and thus comes with a high success rate. In fact, from this data, a plurality of fourth down attempts were fourth and a yard or less.

If you remove all the 4th and 1 scenarios from this data, the fourth down conversion rate is 41%. Pretty decent, and there's tons of analytics going into whether teams should do it more as a matter of course, but in OT we're still talking about a success rate - when all is said and done - of less than 50% most likely.

So yeah, you get the extra down, but that extra down almost certainly comes with a less than 50% chance of converting. More like 4 in 10 chance of success. Then the 2-point conversion is less than 50% too, and the other team needs that to avoid you getting the ball back in a sudden death situation. (assuming you scored a TD first)

I really wonder what the analytics say on this. I think, to SJH's point a while back - and not really on this subject, but it applies - you also have to factor in how the game is going. Is your offense a steamroller right now? Or are you struggling to move the ball? What about your defense? What about injuries? There's so much to input into the formula.

8slim said:

Well, they can end the game on a third possession should it get that far. And Shanahan spoke directly about that possibility.

Now, Reid said that KC was going for 2 had SF scored a TD on their first drive. So there wasn’t going to be a third possession regardless.

I think we can argue both approaches and neither is necessarily wrong.

That Reid had been discussing playoff OT with his team for a month is a sign of why they won this game. Preparation. Reid is the new Belichick in that regard.

Click to expand...

So this brings up the question: if you KNOW the other team would be going for two (if they got the ball 2nd), wouldn't you absolutely choose to kick off? Now, there's likely no way of Shanahan knowing that until the quotes came out, but if they were to face KC in the SB next year and went to OT again, this would impact my thinking.

DeadlySplitter said:

Feels like this stat is a bit inflated. I think at least three of these were ones SF had no chance to recover (very briefly fumbled) - did those low snaps count as a couple?

Turnovers were even 2-2.

Click to expand...

I think 2 of them were bad saps. The others were the Pacheco fumble that he lost, the Rashee Rice lateral to Watson like 2 plays before the Pacheco fumble, and the bad toss sweep on the first play of the 2nd half.

But it's not just about the extra (4th) down, right? It's just as much about play calling the first 3 downs and the knowledge you've got the extra down to work with. 2nd and long (which KC had at least once on that last drive) becomes harder to defend because the entire playbook is pretty much open at that point knowing they have 3 more plays to get the yardage, not just 2.

BaseballJones said:

I'm not gonna argue this further because maybe it's semantics.

Click to expand...

It is. Like when someone asks "Do you have an extra cigarette?" No, I only got 20 in my pack like everyone else.

It's not "extra". We all know that. The rules say each team gets 4 downs.

cornwalls@6 said:

I can't see him walking away either. I think his weight and age causes assumptions to be made about his future, but no one really knows anything. If he's up for it physically, hard to imagine him not wanting to see how many more Lombardis they can rack up.

Click to expand...

At this point, waddling away is probably the best Andy could do.

Tied 16-16 in the fourth; That second down play before the two minute warning and the third down play after the 2:00 minute warning by SAN FRAN was inexcusable.
2nd and 3 - Kittle flat pass for 0 yards.
3rd and 3 - Pass play into the blitz that gets tipped.
4th and 3 - Moody FG is good.

I would have argued to have gone for it on 4th down to ensure Mahomes doesn't get the ball back.

Hoya81 said:

It's really remarkable how competitive the game itself has been over the last 20 or so years. Since XXXVI, every game except three (Raiders-Buccaneers, Broncos-Seahawks, Chiefs-Buccaneers) has been undecided into the 4th quarter.

Click to expand...

So very true. The SB was almost always awful in the 80s and 90s. It’s been a remarkable run of competitive games.

8slim said:

That Reid had been discussing playoff OT with his team for a month is a sign of why they won this game. Preparation. Reid is the new Belichick in that regard.

Click to expand...

This Andy Reid?

tims4wins said:

So this brings up the question: if you KNOW the other team would be going for two (if they got the ball 2nd), wouldn't you absolutely choose to kick off? Now, there's likely no way of Shanahan knowing that until the quotes came out, but if they were to face KC in the SB next year and went to OT again, this would impact my thinking.

Click to expand...

8slim said:

Well, they can end the game on a third possession should it get that far. And Shanahan spoke directly about that possibility.

Now, Reid said that KC was going for 2 had SF scored a TD on their first drive. So there wasn’t going to be a third possession regardless.

I think we can argue both approaches and neither is necessarily wrong.

That Reid had been discussing playoff OT with his team for a month is a sign of why they won this game. Preparation. Reid is the new Belichick in that regard.

Click to expand...

It’s more likely that both teams kick field goals than both teams score touchdowns, in which case the 3rd possession thing comes into play. It would have happened last night if SF could have gotten a stop and held Chiefs to a field goal, regardless of the Chiefs having a pre-determined plan to go for 2.

VORP Speed said:

It’s more likely that both teams kick field goals than both teams score touchdowns, in which case the 3rd possession thing comes into play. It would have happened last night if SF could have gotten a stop and held Chiefs to a field goal, regardless of the Chiefs having a pre-determined plan to go for 2.

Click to expand...

Yeah, that 3rd possession is enormous. I think you have to take the ball first.

Van Everyman said:

Am I the only one that finds the fact that the Chiefs were practicing how to respond to overtime rules in the Super Bowl during the preseason to be a little odd? This doesn’t strike me as Ernie Adams-style hyper-preparation. It actually seems a little bizarre.

Click to expand...

The rule applies to the whole postseason, so not so bizarre.

SF, in the first half, did the best job containing and sacking Mahomes that I can recall seeing. W/o Greenlaw and with the fatigue they could only hang on for so long before he made some of his trademark scrambles. Game over after that.

One play I didn’t like was SF’s call on 2nd and 4 in OT at KC’s 9. Juszczyk had just made the awesome catch for a first down. On 1st, CMC got 6 yards on a run to the right. They looked out of sorts and called basically the same play again, but were trying to run right again from the right hash. I’m good with running it there with CMC, but in real time, it felt like they needed a timeout to set their strategy, whether they were in 4 down territory or not, and instead just called a lazy play.

CoffeeNerdness said:

SF, in the first half, did the best job containing and sacking Mahomes that I can recall seeing. W/o Greenlaw and with the fatigue they could only hang on for so long before he made some of his trademark scrambles. Game over after that.

Click to expand...

Bosa looked so athletic containing these plays early but looked out of gas by the end.

Van Everyman said:

Am I the only one that finds the fact that the Chiefs were practicing how to respond to overtime rules in the Super Bowl during the preseason to be a little odd? This doesn’t strike me as Ernie Adams-style hyper-preparation. It actually seems a little bizarre.

Click to expand...

It's a playoff rule not just a Super Bowl rule. When you have been to 3 of the last 4 super bowls and are returning the same core, including the best player in the world, you can put a little more attention and focus on a detail like that in training camp than fundamentals.

Also I think the Chiefs were the ones who originally proposed this rule change after the 2018 AFCCG. Took until after the 13 seconds game for the committee to push it through, not sure if the Chiefs were still the sponsors of it or if someone else took over. Reid might be more familiar/closer to the rule change than another coahc because he and the organization lobbied for it year after year.

AlNipper49 said:

I don’t understand how Jones didn’t win MVP. That guy was personally responsible for it even being kind of a game that they could have been competitive in. A complete fucking wrecking ball.

Click to expand...

They have to find the money to keep him. He's going to get $30m+ per year and he's like Donald, a complete game changer.

Smiling Joe Hesketh said:

People are gonna see that CMC had 30 touches and wonder what the fuss is, but the problem was that early 3rd quarter playcalling. They went 3 and out 3 straight drives and on those drives CMC got 1 carry.

That's a firable offense.

Click to expand...

This wasn't the first time Shanahan's done that and it won't be the last, since he seems incapable of learning from his mistakes.

Spags is one of the greatest DC's of all time directing a unit that's been rock solid during the postseason. I mean, it is possible, he made some halftime adjustments against the run that Shanahan and co. noticed and tried to adjust the play calling accordingly.

lexrageorge said:

Not sure possessing the ball was such a big mistake on the 49'ers part.

Romo noted that SF defense was on the field in the final drive of the 4th quarter and looked gassed. So getting the defense some rest was probably a consideration. The 49'ers offense actually did their part there with a drive that exceeded 7 minutes. The 49'ers offense probably should have scored a TD in that drive, although credit to Chris Jones for making a key hit on Purdy forcing the 4th down.

And, yes, a 3rd possession would make the game sudden death, and probably is a consideration in a probability simulation of determining the relative advantage of taking the first possession.

Click to expand...

If you do take the ball first, you need to be aggressive. It is a tough call to not take the points and go for it on 4th and a long 4 being inside the 10. But if SF took the ball because their defense was gassed, didn't they think the probability of KC answering with a TD was high? And if you don't make it, you likely go +15 to +20 on field position with KC starting closer to their goal line rather than a kickoff after FG to a 25-yard line start. At least it makes them go a good 50+ yards for a good look at a FG attempt.

Although from KC's prep it sounds like the best case for SF was to try and get a stop on a 2-point conversion to decide the game, which I don't see happening unless the center and Mahomes messed up the snap exchange or something.

Smiling Joe Hesketh said:

And look, maybe one day Kyle Shanahan will become a Real Boy and figure his shit out. Andy Reid used to be a meme too, but then he figured his shit out.

Until that day arrives, though, Shanny is going to have to live with the label of Epic Postseason Choker, because in his 3 SBs he's lived up to that label admirably.

Click to expand...

I lean towards the former, that he'll figure it out. The guy is 44 and has brought his team to the dance 3 times already. I can't help but see the parallels with his father but in reverse order: Mike had the strong running game and a HOFer quarterback in Elway to win SBs early on. Then he couldn't get back when leveling down at QB even with the strong running game: Griese, Plummer, etc. brought about good showings and postseason performances and that's it.

One could argue Kyle is doing more with less when you look at Jimmy G and Purdy making it within minutes of winning titles. But they are also whittling away the precious peak of CMC with non-star QBs. Based on how Purdy played his first 21 starts, he may become that star. Hopefully for the Niners Purdy is not only a great fit for their system who cannot make the plays when things go south, as happened with the Cover 0 blitzes which the Niners could not adjust to for some reason.

Shanny playcalling was bad in the second half but I think taking the ball was defensible. All else equal I would kick but I’m sympathetic to his D was just on the field and tired argument.

Bongorific said:

One play I didn’t like was SF’s call on 2nd and 4 in OT at KC’s 9. Juszczyk had just made the awesome catch for a first down. On 1st, CMC got 6 yards on a run to the right. They looked out of sorts and called basically the same play again, but were trying to run right again from the right hash. I’m good with running it there with CMC, but in real time, it felt like they needed a timeout to set their strategy, whether they were in 4 down territory or not, and instead just called a lazy play.

Click to expand...

Agreed but Pennel also made a good play there. And actually showed up huge for them in the running game. He completely crapped out in NE but I think he's capable of making great plays in small doses and is an insanely huge human.

loshjott said:

Spags is one of the greatest DC's of all time directing a unit that's been rock solid during the postseason. I mean, it is possible, he made some halftime adjustments against the run that Shanahan and co. noticed and tried to adjust the play calling accordingly.

Click to expand...

Do coordinators make the HoF? I went and looked at all those statues and it seems like they don’t. 4 SBs as a coordinator is really good particularly the way Spags has done it.

DanoooME said:

They have to find the money to keep him. He's going to get $30m+ per year and he's like Donald, a complete game changer.

Click to expand...

Someone should pay Jones whatever he wants. He's the second most important player on that team. Changed the ending of at least two playoff games almost single-handedly. Also showed great leadership on the sidelines in the SB from what we were able to see.

loshjott said:

Spags is one of the greatest DC's of all time directing a unit that's been rock solid during the postseason. I mean, it is possible, he made some halftime adjustments against the run that Shanahan and co. noticed and tried to adjust the play calling accordingly.

Click to expand...

Possible, but we’re talking about the guy who threw the ball from the Pats’ 30 up 8 with 3 minutes left in SB 51 with a kicker who had 100% accuracy from 40-49 yards that season.

This is a tough one...the last 49ers play, Aiyuk dusts Snead and is wide open but they fuck up the protection and let Chris Jones come in free which forces Purdy to rush and throw the incompletion.

View: https://twitter.com/BaldyNFL/status/1757069181923594583?s=20