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4. The RS don't think these particular FAs are worth the $/years they are currently asking for. (most likely)
4. The RS don't think these particular FAs are worth the $/years they are currently asking for. (most likely)
Offseason rumors
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Why would Kennedy deflect criticism from Bloom? He fired his bag man already. Having the new guy suffer for sake of the guy you just fired is insane. Ownership has not taken a bit of ownership on the issues. They literally brought Theo Epstein back to try to deflect. This is Dolan levels of incompetence. Actually Dolan finally gave up screwing up the Knicks and Snyder is gone. I think Sam Kennedy might be one of the worst Governors in the Four Major Sports right now.
They made offers to both Hernandez and Soler. They like the players. The limit on years is pretty arbitrary.
If you what suggest what is the plan? Wait until next winter and hope you win then?
The "plan" is likely the same whether the players went elsewhere because the Sox didn't want to give them the $/years they wanted or the Sox offered the $/years they wanted but they elected to sign somewhere else anyway: move on to the next idea. No front office, including the Red Sox, is Plan A or nothing. Just because the Sox didn't sign the guys *you* think they should have doesn't mean they've given up or it's wait-til-next-year.
They haven't signed anybody to replace Turner. No one. They lost 2 starters from one of the weaker rotations in terms of innings pitched in baseball and signed one player.
Perhaps they aren't looking to replace Turner 1-for-1 but rather with an aggregate of multiple players. Same with the rotation. The two starters they lost accounted for 198 total innings last year and the guy they signed has averaged 175 innings per season the last three years. Perhaps they prefer to not pay a premium for a starter who they don't see as enough of an upgrade over full seasons of Crawford and/or Houck to be worth the extra cost.
They have a plan whether they spell it out to us or not, or whether it fits with what you or I or anyone else believes the plan should be.
So, to use a phrase from the other local team that’s one all the championships in their sport this century, Bloom and Breslow have been told to shop for the groceries at 7-Eleven versus Whole Foods.
My bad, doesn't really change the sentiment about Kennedy being a terrible owner/governor
This is what I'm hoping for RHF. I hope you've got it right. I think a factor for this team's performance may be the Netflix guys being in their faces all season. If they're in the playoff running in Aug/Sep, I hope the team has a little extra juice to finish strongly knowing it will be shown to the world the following spring. What is that effect called? In manufacturing, we call it the Hawthorne effect: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/hawthorne-effect.asp#:~:text=The Hawthorne Effect is when,late 1920s and early 1930s.
They likely are also using profit from the Red Sox to put into other subsidiaries. Which sucks for us as fans but it's totally fine to do that on a business level.
As far as not paying the FA's what they're worth.... they must also know that player salaries never ever line up with what they're "worth"- either pre-FA or post. It's figuring out who not to overpay for and who you will accept an overpayment for
I’m debating you there. The fact that he can’t even make a simple statement without creating more questions and distractions lends to just that.
A lot of this unease would probably lessen if John Henry came out of his hidey-hole and spent 15 minutes addressing the media (and through them the fans). That's all it takes. "Here is what I forsee as the Red Sox for the next xx years. This is how I think that we can do it." "No, I don't want to sell the club." (He would never say yes) "Here is why we hired Breslow and why we let Bloom go".
He doesn't even have to be completely transparent, just a bit of a peek behind the curtain to show us that things are running okay. Because it doesn't seem like it is right now, and quite frankly hasn't seemed like it has been running smoothly in quite some time.
I sent him a PM, just in case he still monitors his membership
In terms of the pitching staff. These guys are out, with IP in parens
Sale (103)
Paxton (96)
Schrieber (47)
Kluber (55)
Bleier (30)
Llovera (30)
Ort (23)
Brasier (21)
Garza (18)
Others (63)
So that’s around 500 innings. Imagine ideally Giolito takes 175, Houck 50, Pivetta 50, Whitlock 50, Crawford 20- that leaves around 150 innings from the rest (Slaten, Mata, Criswell, Murphy, etc?)
Sale (103)
Paxton (96)
Schrieber (47)
Kluber (55)
Bleier (30)
Llovera (30)
Ort (23)
Brasier (21)
Garza (18)
Others (63)
So that’s around 500 innings. Imagine ideally Giolito takes 175, Houck 50, Pivetta 50, Whitlock 50, Crawford 20- that leaves around 150 innings from the rest (Slaten, Mata, Criswell, Murphy, etc?)
All of this makes sense given how much effort they’ve made in selling the “Fenway experience”. The Red Sox appear to be a backstop for some of their other growth holdings but, in order for that to be a viable business plan, they need to ensure that they don’t experience serious dips in interest on the Sox side. Hence, selling the experience while not really addressing the team but making a bunch of PR statements to give the appearance that they actually are investing in this team at a level most fans expect.
100%. The trouble is we are dealing with a very weird, very reclusive guy. I don’t even know if he’s secretive as much as he’s just really weird. He should do this but I just don’t think he’s capable of it. So he’s got guys like Kennedy trying to make sense of it for the public but it’s an impossible task. So here we are.
I agree with you that he's a strange reclusive guy, but he's done this before. Every Spring Training for x amount of years he's sat at the picnic table and gave an update on the Sox and where he thinks the team is going--remember when he drove to the 98.5 studio and spoke to Felger and Mazz? Of course, that's when things were going pretty well and everyone loved the Sox and ownership. Now that there's a little heat, he's got his meat shield taking the shots (and its fitting his last name is Kennedy) for him while he keeps his mouth shut.
I don't expect Henry to say anything really telling. But it's not a great look where the guy who is the boss is making his lackeys (Kennedy and Werner) deliver his message and they're either getting it wrong ("FULL THROTTLE!") or are just creating more questions than providing answers. That's part of the job of being an owner--accountability, not just a-counting how much money he's making off us suckers--er, I mean fans.
Somewhere a management consultant is lurking ready to talk about harvesting revenue from a dying business. It's not that bad - but one of the Breslow comments read like something McKinsey (optimizing synergies and efficiencies across service lines) sends out before a RIF.
It's not that bad (am I trying to convince myself by repeating that)- but it is amusing how they cannot complete a simple declarative sentence concerning the future of the Red Sox. Beyond full throttle that is.
Breslow has said he isn't interested in signing a dedicated DH - and it's a direct reaction to the fact that the 23' Sox were the worst defense in the majors and the second worst defense in the Statcast era (since 2015). He's not replacing Turner because it goes against the goal of improving the defense.
He doesn’t have to replace Turner with a dedicated DH- Yoshida should fill that role. But another bat is needed, there aren’t enough internal options to replace the AB’s lost, IMO (unless this team is the healthiest in history).
I agree with you here. . .meaning, if I had reservations similar to what yours seem to be, it would go a long way personally. I'd also hope that it would go a long way to change the public discussion about the team, mostly because as a fan the legitimate criticisms have been repeated to the point where they've evolved into a chronic negative framing.
But I'd lean pretty hard into "probably." Because I think this thing has acquired a self-sustaining life of its own, and I don't think it can be scaled back by rationality - certainly not by a 15 minute Q&A. Whatever he says will be parsed and parsed and fit into whatever pre-existing narratives are out there.
Sure, but that's not easy. Who is available that hits like Turner and can actually field, and where would the team put him? A great option might be Garrett Cooper (who is a good fielding 1b), but that's only going to help the defense if they are okay with DHing Casas. There are no good fielding, good hitting OFers left, except for Cody Bellinger. Duvall might be a consideration, but he's getting old and his defensive numbers last year were actually pretty bad. Michael Taylor could work, but he's been a pretty bad hitter throughout most of his career and he probably doesn't want to join an OF as crowded as Boston's. Another name that I like is Donovan Solano (who could spell both Casas and Grissom), but if he isn't going to start he is probably looking to catch on with a team that actually might make the playoffs.
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I'm not sure that's a useful way of gauging it. We have a full rotation of starters and a full pen, same as every year. The absolute killer of our pitching the last two years is our starters' IP. Last year it was about 750 and nobody but Bello produced more than 107, that's awful.
Giolito: 175
Pivetta: 175
Bello: 170
Houck: 125
Crawford: 125
Feels like reasonable estimates and already puts you at 770, plus any additional starts you might get from people like Whitlock/Winck/Murphy. So while I'm still in the camp of wanting Montgomery to lock things down, I also don't think it's hard to project a less strained bullpen than we've had since 2021.
Add in that the actual starters in that group, Sale, Paxton and Kluber were unreliable not just in length, but in availability. Its one thing to have starters falter earlier than you like, its another for them to miss months at a time leaving a hole and "bullpen games" right from the get go.
I'm excited about the year. We're actually in rebuild mode and not half-measures like Kluber trying to spitball it together. And come the deadline, I would hope Breslow either sells Jansen/Martin/spare part, or uses the extreme financial flexibility to take on a longer-term asset.
I'm excited about the year. We're actually in rebuild mode and not half-measures like Kluber trying to spitball it together. And come the deadline, I would hope Breslow either sells Jansen/Martin/spare part, or uses the extreme financial flexibility to take on a longer-term asset.
It's funny because if Jansen, Martin, Pivetta, Giolito, and O'Neil are actually playing well..... the team will most likely be in the hunt come deadline time.
So you have Pivetta +33 innnings, Bello +18, Houck +19, and Kutter -4, where I was +50, flat, +50, +20. So there’s a lot more innings to be made up in your scenario.
Yeah, and I used to be in management consulting in a prior life. This is all so triggering to me. Realistically, it appears to be an exercise in trying not to say the quiet part out loud. They are likely really hoping the prospects deliver so that they can pretend it was the plan all along.
There's a lot of negative energy around this club right now, mostly because fans (and players--both currently with the team and alumni--you could probably throw the new GM in there as well) feel that they were lied to and don't understand what the ownership group is trying to do. Most people (think they) understand the deficiencies of the Red Sox. Most people (think they) understand how much money FSG has. The disconnect is why isn't ownership using their vast resources to fix the problem of the parent club?
We thought that Tom Werner was the owner who knew what was going on ("FULL THROTTLE!") but apparently he wasn't and had to backtrack off those comments two months after he made them, which suggests to me that he was called on the carpet by Henry. Kennedy is really bad at this and can't seem to think on his feet aside from reiterating the same talking points. The underlying question to the comments from Henry, Kennedy, Breslow, members of the team is where is Henry and why hasn't he said something?
You're right, 15 minutes isn't going to put two (maybe three) shit years in the rearview, but it's a start. Even if you don't agree with what he's saying, it shows that they are at the very least listening to their consumers and not just raising ticket prices and instructing us to eat cake. As far as parsing, dude, we've been parsing every syllable that's emanating from Jersey Street trying to figure out what the fuck it is that they're doing over there. That's one of the biggest reasons why this board is so fractured right now because you have a very nebulous plan that's open to a lot of interpretation. Is this an example of a Baseball Process? Is this a teardown to the studs? Why did Breslow say that he didn't fear dealing prospects to help the major league team in October and then do a 180 in January? Are FSG losing money? Are they taking money out of the Red Sox bucket to cover costs in the Penguins or Liverpool organization? Has the bite at the Fenway development apple become too big? How about Cora, we know how much you love him but after two straight last-place finishes (and another one seemingly on the horizon) is his job safe? If not, why didn't you let him go with Bloom in October?
There are literally hundreds of questions that one could ask. And there's really one man who can definitively answer (or at least speak to) them but he's not saying a word. It's more than strange, it's a shitty way to run a business. Put it this way, if there was a layoff at your company, you'd expect the CEO to at least address it, no? Why is Herny not addressing anything?
Go tell the players that winning is not a priority this year. Is spending over $300 million on Devers signal they're in rebuild mode? No it does not. So what is their plan? The team is in position to be a playoff team if ownership would allocate resources to upgrade the rotation and another power bat. How can anyone be excited about this year when the people that own the team are telling you that they don't care one way or the other how this team does? It is possible to both contend for the playoffs and add the necessary pieces to do so and also develop the minor league system to better position the organization for the future. That's what a big market team is supposed to do. Look at the Yankees. They're in the playoffs almost every year and also have one of the top farm systems in the game. Look at the Dodgers. Instead, as Red Sox fans we have to look forward to what is likely to be the 3rd last place finish in the division in 4 years. I really don't know what "mode" the team is in.
55 of Pivetta's IP last year were in relief; he only had 87 innings as a starter. So I've actually got him around +90 and someone else (say Slaten) is lined up to cover the 55.
The quotes from Devers and Jansen are really damning today in this regard. There is, to use management consultant speak, very much noise in the system. Competent management does not let that go unaddressed.
I think one of the most depressing things I've heard management say this offseason is when Werner referred to the "Fenway Experience" as part of the appeal of going to a game when the question was about fielding a competitive team and trying to win. It would be a very big mistake to continue down this path. I have been going to games since living on The Fenway, Symphony Road, and Columbus Ave. while attending Northeastern from 1989-94. (I started following the team well before that). A big allure to Boston baseball is the knowledge of the fans. They know when to stand and cheer without the PA system pupping in the "make some noise" nonsense. They know when they just saw a great play, whether its from their team or the visitors. They know when a pitcher has a no hitter thru 6 innings. They know when a guy hustles or dogs it on a routine ground ball. I could give so many more examples, but the point is, this group is on the verge of losing the true fans. They seemed oddly content late last year to have the visiting teams buy up so many of the tickets. It's bad enough that they still insist on playing Sweet Caroline when they are down 10-2. If they continue to let their fans slowly lose the title of most passionate and knowledgeable fans in the game, its going to really start to affect much more than a dwindling of NESN 360 subscriptions.
In the back of my mind, I've wondered whether Breslow would want to trade Duran plus for a good starter with control and then sign Bellinger.
I have no idea. That's a self own in the worst sort of way. "Ha, ha. We're so fucked up one of our most popular alums called up, aired us out and attempted to our job for us! Just another day at the Fens, amIright?"
I don't disagree but at this point, although pretty much any player would prefer to be on a playoff contender and would prefer to start, those who remain unsigned likely haven't received such an offer and might well settle for whatever they can get. Spring training has already begun, they're falling behind, they want to know where they and their families are going to live this year, and there's incentive to sign with whoever makes the first reasonable offer.
Bellinger looks like a pretty bad fit for Fenway, he's a LH pull hitter with very little power.
The only way this makes sense to me is if they are truly still going after Montgomery (or Snell) but are keeping mum on this publicly because they don't want to give any additional leverage to Boras, with whom they are engaged in a game of chicken.
How does That make sense? They’re not spending money on anyone. They’re more likely to further cut payroll than add.
Agree they should tell us more. The pattern this winter has been both amusing and frustrating: they say nothing, or they make some sort of gnomic remark that we then interpret assiduously as if it came from the Oracle at Delphi. Who knows what's really going on? A plausible interpretation is that they don't think they have a contender in 2024, but they can't say so publicly, so they let everyone twist slowly in the wind instead. If that's right and they're saving their bullets, I'm okay with it, but they better start firing those bullets next offseason.
So as sort of a thought-experiment. . . Let's say that they don't think they're going to be a contender in 2024, or have a very low probability of such.
They've also decided they don't want to eat up whatever margin remains between their current outlay and the CBT. Now, that decision could either be consequently (because of the internal projections) or independently (the FSG is cash-poor at the moment.)
Is there a reason why they should "tell us more" than, "We want to see how our new pitching coach fares and see how the prospects develop?" And if so, what would that more be?
Would it be, "We're broke." Or, "We think the team sucks so badly no injection of FA talent is worth it." I don't follow the corporate PR stuff from baseball teams as much as many here seem to. But I'd be a bit surprised if teams actually say stuff like that. Assuming I'm incorrect, my second question would be, "Even if teams routinely bare their throats to internet pundits, might there be a reason for the team not saying it now?" Like existing deals, trying to sell advertising revenue, or stuff like that. It's a genuine question - I don't know and I'm asking.
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On a side note, I'd point out that if they think there's a chance they might be competitive, but it's a low probability, what they're saying and doing makes some amount of sense. Absent the fandom tire-fire, that is. But rightly or wrongly, people are very very bent out of shape over this, and they should have a more proactive strategy to address it. Unless they think they can ride it out and just start winning games.
There’s so much wishful thinking on this board that these guys aren’t just milking Red Sox fans for every dollar that they can get so that they can develop real estate and buy into golf leagues, but that’s sure what it looks like they’re doing. And the players know it as well.
I hope the veterans on this club are ripping ownership every day.
This article is really something. So now Devers is publicly calling out ownership on the failures this offseason.
This of course means that ownership isn’t telling even the players much of anything (and they either aren’t telling Cora anything or he’s telling players things they don’t like).
It’s hard to imagine a worse way of doing business than what the Red Sox are doing.
This of course means that ownership isn’t telling even the players much of anything (and they either aren’t telling Cora anything or he’s telling players things they don’t like).
It’s hard to imagine a worse way of doing business than what the Red Sox are doing.
They are giving his at bats to Yoshida and putting a competent fielder in left. They do need one more starter and for the other four to not get hurt, or at least not all at the same time. That would help.
This is not intended to be a glib comment but I’m genuinely curious. What is Sam Kennedy good at? He seems so bad at the public facing part of his job that I’m curious about what he brings to the table. Anyone have any more knowledge about his skill set?
He's a meat shield ala Roger Goodell. He's the public face of the Sox which means he goes out and deal with the press, tries to stay on message and absorb all of the criticisms that are meant for Henry. For all of that, he gets paid very handsomely.
I'm sure he does other shit as well, but while the Sox suck he takes the bullet for Henry, and to a lesser extent, Werner.
Every time he talks, things get worse. If Henry were paying attention, he’d have been canned by now.
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