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nvalvo

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I addressed this above. How does the math on Longoria work out if you back out the 6 years when he was under club control no matter what?
As I said, after six years of service time it’s a four year stretch of 16 WAR/$43m, a surplus value of something like $100m relative to FA $/WAR, followed by a trade. Post trade, he wasn’t great, but also wasn’t terrible. 7 WAR for $81m, which is probably $10m or so below par.
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

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John Henry did that last year, didn’t he?

In rare interview (with McAdam, then of Boston Sports Journal), John Henry weighs in on the team's approach to spending, free agency, Xander Bogaerts and Chaim Bloom.

https://www.bostonsportsjournal.com/2023/02/19/john-henry-weighs-in-on-teams-approach-to-spending-free-agency-xander-bogaerts-and-chaim-bloom

McAdam has been driving this narrative for a while. People don’t seem to like, or remember, the answers that ownership/the FO are giving. Not much you can do about that.
This literally happened a year ago, you know that John Henry is not Punxsutawney Phil, right?

There's been a ton of stuff that have happened to the Red Sox in that time where Henry hasn't said a word. They finished last in their division for the third time in four years, they fired their general manager, they didn't fire their manager, they hired a new GM, one of his owner partners said they were going "full throttle" in regards to spending, then he changed course, their new GM said that he wouldn't be afraid to deal prospects for pitching, then he reversed course, they've signed a grand total of one free agent this offseason (so far), there is acrimony in the press (both local and national), there is acrimony from the current group of players, there is acrimony from alumni, there are other investments in his portfolio that seem to be taking on water and what does that mean for the Red Sox. Not only that but their fan base, the ones that they charge $95 a pop, came to their annual Winter Carnival (the one that Henry bailed on) and booed the shit out them. And I know I'm forgetting something.

None of the above is concerning?

you are not wrong about this. I am just tired of hearing so many people opine for John Henry to say something that I would like to see it happen and make that storyline disappear.
What are you so afraid of? Like I said in another thread (or maybe this one), if I worked for a company that went through as much shit as the Sox have gone through in the last year (never mind since 2020), I'd want to know what my CEO is thinking. This is getting to a tipping point where this season is a boat about to hit some rocks and the captain is like, "I'm going to my room." It's weird to me that so many people obviously care for this team but don't seem to give a shit that the owner has decided not to comment on anything.

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills here. Or you guys all got lobotomies and forgot to tell me.
 

joe dokes

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Again, my to do list item for John Henry was simply to shut everyone else up not because I have no burning desire to hear anything that he might say awkwardly or otherwise.
I didn't think you expected to hear anything of substance.
My suspicion is that Henry believes that *nothing* he says will increase the net amount of people who shut up. I think he is correct. That story will *never* go away as long as the team is not winning.
 

Yaz4Ever

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This literally happened a year ago, you know that John Henry is not Punxsutawney Phil, right?

There's been a ton of stuff that have happened to the Red Sox in that time where Henry hasn't said a word. They finished last in their division for the third time in four years, they fired their general manager, they didn't fire their manager, they hired a new GM, one of his owner partners said they were going "full throttle" in regards to spending, then he changed course, their new GM said that he wouldn't be afraid to deal prospects for pitching, then he reversed course, they've signed a grand total of one free agent this offseason (so far), there is acrimony in the press (both local and national), there is acrimony from the current group of players, there is acrimony from alumni, there are other investments in his portfolio that seem to be taking on water and what does that mean for the Red Sox. Not only that but their fan base, the ones that they charge $95 a pop, came to their annual Winter Carnival (the one that Henry bailed on) and booed the shit out them. And I know I'm forgetting something.

None of the above is concerning?



What are you so afraid of? Like I said in another thread (or maybe this one), if I worked for a company that went through as much shit as the Sox have gone through in the last year (never mind since 2020), I'd want to know what my CEO is thinking. This is getting to a tipping point where this season is a boat about to hit some rocks and the captain is like, "I'm going to my room." It's weird to me that so many people obviously care for this team but don't seem to give a shit that the owner has decided not to comment on anything.

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills here. Or you guys all got lobotomies and forgot to tell me.
Where did I come across as scared or lobotomized? Lobotomized, I actually get a bit, but not for anything I've said here.

All I'm saying is that I'd like him to speak to shut everyone else up. I'm tired of reading/hearing that JWH has been absent. He pays the people who should be doing the work. He may hamstring them by not opening his checkbook as widely as she should or we'd like him to, but I don't thing he has an obligation to say anything to anyone publicly no matter how much we'd all like him to. I think signing some solid FAs or signing off on trades that improve the team will speak far more loudly than any words he utters.


-------------------------

Also, unrelated to the above, many of you know I've been in Florida for roughly 6 weeks caring for my elderly mom. Things have not been good at all, but we're starting to see some progress. 8-12 hours sitting at her bedside and then going home to her condo to pack things up for donation or trash (we'll be moving her to NC with us when she's able) while missing my family, friends, and job have taken a toll on me. Today, I found out that the Nationals Spring Training site (which I think they share with the Astros) is 10 miles from her condo and the Red Sox will be playing there on 2/28. I'm seriously considering taking a few hours for myself and going to the game depending on how she's doing. A couple of hot dogs, beers, sunshine, and a game might be just what the doctor has ordered for me. We'll see.

2nd edit: oooooh, Jupiter is only about 15-20 minutes further away and the Sox play there on 2/27. Depending on how mom is doing and how the weather looks, might do that instead.
 
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nattysez

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I didn't think you expected to hear anything of substance.
My suspicion is that Henry believes that *nothing* he says will increase the net amount of people who shut up. I think he is correct. That story will *never* go away as long as the team is not winning.
This is essentially what Sean McAdam said on his podcast yesterday. JWH believes that anything he says will either get twisted or "come out wrong," so better to just keep his mouth shut. He hasn't done a full press conference since the day after the Mookie trade.

McAdam also pointed out (not in these words) that Bob Kraft is not exactly the most articulate public speaker and has overseen a similar downturn of his team's fortunes, yet has a solid reputation in New England because he's very visibly around the team and willing to talk about the team's future.

The ownership of the SF Giants has been mostly invisible for the past twenty years, but they've had Larry Baer around to serve as the "mouth of ownership," which generally has worked well (when he's not physically assaulting his wife in public). The Sox have been unable to turn Kennedy into their own Larry Baer for a variety of reasons, including Kennedy's own failings, a seeming inability to settle on and convey to the fans a plan of action, and Tom Werner's insistence on spouting off at random.
 

Yaz4Ever

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This is essentially what Sean McAdam said on his podcast yesterday. JWH believes that anything he says will either get twisted or "come out wrong," so better to just keep his mouth shut. He hasn't done a full press conference since the day after the Mookie trade.

McAdam also pointed out (not in these words) that Bob Kraft is not exactly the most articulate public speaker and has overseen a similar downturn of his team's fortunes, yet has a solid reputation in New England because he's very visibly around the team and willing to talk about the team's future.

The ownership of the SF Giants has been mostly invisible for the past twenty years, but they've had Larry Baer around to serve as the "mouth of ownership," which generally has worked well (when he's not physically assaulting his wife in public). The Sox have been unable to turn Kennedy into their own Larry Baer for a variety of reasons, including Kennedy's own failings, a seeming inability to settle on and convey to the fans a plan of action, and Tom Werner's insistence on spouting off at random.
I wouldn't be shocked to see Theo take over as the "mouth of ownership" and that will almost certainly be a good thing.
 

chawson

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This literally happened a year ago, you know that John Henry is not Punxsutawney Phil, right?
I don’t understand what you mean by this. The OP said they wished for John Henry to address the media, and I linked a recent occasion he did.

There's been a ton of stuff that have happened to the Red Sox in that time where Henry hasn't said a word. They finished last in their division for the third time in four years, they fired their general manager, they didn't fire their manager, they hired a new GM, one of his owner partners said they were going "full throttle" in regards to spending, then he changed course, their new GM said that he wouldn't be afraid to deal prospects for pitching, then he reversed course, they've signed a grand total of one free agent this offseason (so far), there is acrimony in the press (both local and national), there is acrimony from the current group of players, there is acrimony from alumni, there are other investments in his portfolio that seem to be taking on water and what does that mean for the Red Sox. Not only that but their fan base, the ones that they charge $95 a pop, came to their annual Winter Carnival (the one that Henry bailed on) and booed the shit out them. And I know I'm forgetting something.

None of the above is concerning?
I think it’s a omewhat concerning, yes, but not calamitously or scandalously so, like so many seem to feel.

The AL East is really, really good. I genuinely think people overlook that. It’s less that the Red Sox flag has been substantially lowered than it is that the pole has gotten taller.

I think the Red Sox made a really serious overhaul to their pitching development infrastructure, but I get that it doesn’t pack the dopamine hit of a major free agent signing or trade.

It was stupid to say “full throttle,” as it’s stupid to say anything. As a journalist, I think everyone should talk to the media. As a fan, and someone who’s so thoroughly exhausted by the Red Sox fan base and its addiction to negativity, I don’t see the point of them saying much of anything.

I don’t think that Breslow “reversed course” on trading prospects, but he’s not going to do so for the sake of it. I don’t think they reversed course on wanting to sign a free agent, but they’re not going to drop $175 million on a good not great starter like Montgomery for the sake of it. And I think that’s because they are smart, not cheap. The team is better positioned by improving Houck, Crawford and Whitlock, under a very highly regarded group of pitching development coaches, into solid starters (maybe Winckowski too) than banishing them to bullpen roles after a disastrous defensive year.

All respect to Devers, but I think he’s responding as much to the noxious pessimistic narrative that has manifested around the Red Sox this offseason — yes, largely because of the reporting angles and superstitions that MassLive reporters have trotted out there — than anything else.

They keep writing the same nut again and again — that the Red Sox are not acting like a team going all in to compete this year — like it’s some shocking exposé. It’s not. It’s not, to me, some horrible mismanagement that the Sox have not taken some reactionary approach and aggressively outbid on every FA they could. We used to laugh at teams that did that on this board! Masslive has no interest in writing about the relative utility of adding a guy like Snell — whose fastball had the second-lowest run value in MLB last year — at his absurd asking price. They have no interest in comparing Jordan Montgomery — his four average pitches and below-average strikeout rate — to what we saw from Houck last year, or to similar average-velocity command lefties’ production into their 30s. Only that the Red Sox are villains for not paying them what they want.

We’re not going to resolve this this offseason. In 2026 or so, we’ll be able to look back at the productivity of Snell, Montgomery, Houck, Whitlock, Crawford, and Pivetta at the major league level; guys like Sandlin, Fitts, Gonzalez and Perales and their acclimations to the majors, and whatever star free agent(s) the Red Sox have added to accompany the growing core.
 

Auger34

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I'm just going to speak for myself here but the only reason I want to hear from JWH is because the messaging from the Werner/Kennedy has been so scattershot and all over the place, that it appears that ownership doesn't have a plan or vision. Since he's the head honcho and the one presumably giving marching orders to Werner/Kennedy, it would be nice to hear from him to get it straight from the horse's mouth.

If the messaging and communication from ownership had actually been consistent, I don't really care if I hear it from Henry, Werner or Kennedy
 

YTF

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I wouldn't be shocked to see Theo take over as the "mouth of ownership" and that will almost certainly be a good thing.
Better late than never I suppose, but A) that's not a role that Theo was brought in to do and B) since he and Kennedy seem to be besties, I'm not sure it's something that he would consider.

BTW, I'm happy to read there has been some progress with your mom. Even the smallest of victories count. I hope that things line up were you can get some well deserved respite and are able to take in some spring training action. Look after yourself.
 
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John Marzano Olympic Hero

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Where did I come across as scared or lobotomized? Lobotomized, I actually get a bit, but not for anything I've said here.

All I'm saying is that I'd like him to speak to shut everyone else up. I'm tired of reading/hearing that JWH has been absent. He pays the people who should be doing the work. He may hamstring them by not opening his checkbook as widely as she should or we'd like him to, but I don't thing he has an obligation to say anything to anyone publicly no matter how much we'd all like him to. I think signing some solid FAs or signing off on trades that improve the team will speak far more loudly than any words he utters.
We're all a bit lobotomized, I'd say which is why I was genuinely bummed that maybe everyone else got more so and left me in the dark. :)

But in any event, I think that we're going to need to agree to disagree here. I strongly believe that an owner, CEO, boss whomever should be accountable to his customers, work staff, constituents. Especially in a place where his mouthpieces (Kennedy and to an extent Breslow) are either tripping over their words (Kennedy) or are reversing course on what they said at the beginning of the offseason. Not only that, but another member of his ownership made a pretty bold declaration in November and completely reversed it in January. There's one guy who can at the very least bring some clarity to how his club is running, yet won't do it because he doesn't want to look "bad". IDK. It's kind of the inverse of Lincoln's chestnut "it's better to be thought a fool than open your mouth and remove all doubt."

With Henry not speaking, it makes it seem like he doesn't give a shit about the Sox. Which feeds into the narrative that John Henry is too busy with other things and doesn't give a shit about the Sox. I'm not saying that a 20 minute press conference would cure everything, but I think it might shed a bit of light on the subject. Someone mentioned Bob Kraft in another thread. He's not much of a public speaker but he talks enough so that fans know that he gives a shit. When it comes to Wyc or the Jacobs they don't talk nearly as much, but their wallet does the gabbing for them.

For Henry his wallet and his mouth are closed.

I'm sorry for your mom and her health. A dog or two at the ballpark are just what the doctor ordered. Don't forget to take care of yourself.

I don’t understand what you mean by this. The OP said they wished for John Henry to address the media, and I linked a recent occasion he did.
Yes. Which was written and posted literally one year ago this past Monday. Hence the Punxsutawney Phil reference.

I think it’s a omewhat concerning, yes, but not calamitously or scandalously so, like so many seem to feel.

The AL East is really, really good. I genuinely think people overlook that. It’s less that the Red Sox flag has been substantially lowered than it is that the pole has gotten taller.

I think the Red Sox made a really serious overhaul to their pitching development infrastructure, but I get that it doesn’t pack the dopamine hit of a major free agent signing or trade.

It was stupid to say “full throttle,” as it’s stupid to say anything. As a journalist, I think everyone should talk to the media. As a fan, and someone who’s so thoroughly exhausted by the Red Sox fan base and its addiction to negativity, I don’t see the point of them saying much of anything.

I don’t think that Breslow “reversed course” on trading prospects, but he’s not going to do so for the sake of it. I don’t think they reversed course on wanting to sign a free agent, but they’re not going to drop $175 million on a good not great starter like Montgomery for the sake of it. And I think that’s because they are smart, not cheap. The team is better positioned by improving Houck, Crawford and Whitlock, under a very highly regarded group of pitching development coaches, into solid starters (maybe Winckowski too) than banishing them to bullpen roles after a disastrous defensive year.

All respect to Devers, but I think he’s responding as much to the noxious pessimistic narrative that has manifested around the Red Sox this offseason — yes, largely because of the reporting angles and superstitions that MassLive reporters have trotted out there — than anything else.

They keep writing the same nut again and again — that the Red Sox are not acting like a team going all in to compete this year — like it’s some shocking exposé. It’s not. It’s not, to me, some horrible mismanagement that the Sox have not taken some reactionary approach and aggressively outbid on every FA they could. We used to laugh at teams that did that on this board! Masslive has no interest in writing about the relative utility of adding a guy like Snell — whose fastball had the second-lowest run value in MLB last year — at his absurd asking price. They have no interest in comparing Jordan Montgomery — his four average pitches and below-average strikeout rate — to what we saw from Houck last year, or to similar average-velocity command lefties’ production into their 30s. Only that the Red Sox are villains for not paying them what they want.

We’re not going to resolve this this offseason. In 2026 or so, we’ll be able to look back at the productivity of Snell, Montgomery, Houck, Whitlock, Crawford, and Pivetta at the major league level; guys like Sandlin, Fitts, Gonzalez and Perales and their acclimations to the majors, and whatever star free agent(s) the Red Sox have added to accompany the growing core.
I agree that the AL East is really, really good. For the most part, it's always been really, really good. Are you saying that the Sox can't compete? C'mon, that's bullshit and there are three wild card berths for them to compete for.

EDIT: "some horrible mismanagement that the Sox have not taken some reactionary approach and aggressively outbid on every FA they could." I'd be happy if they signed one Tier 1 free agent. BTW, speak for yourself: I'm not one of those fans who clutch their pearls when their team signs a big time free agent for big time money, "My star! Where will Mister Henry get the money for this ball player! I suppose he'll have to sell one of his boats!" Be in on every player you can, improve the team. That's all I want, an honest effort to improve the team. The team, at best, is the same as it was last year.

As far as the "addiction to negativity", are you presently happy with the way that the Boston Red Sox are being run today? Can you look at that roster and without squinting or every single playing up to his ability and say, "Yes. That is a roster that is designed to compete for a championship?" Because I don't think that you truly can. Their starting pitching sucks, they're close to holding a fire sale on their relievers, their third baseman is pissed about how the offseason went, their shortstop hasn't played a full season in two years, their second baseman might be good, but he might also suck, their catchers are two backups on any good team, their DH was too tired to hit in July, August and September, their outfield has a guy who was pretty good for a month last year (after being dreadful the year before), a guy who had one good year in 2021 and a rookie. Their first baseman is very good.

There are so many questions on this team, the team song should be "99 Tears" (deep cut -- and I'm not even a Boomer).

And no, Devers isn't "responding as much to the noxious pessimistic narrative that has manifested around the Red Sox this offseason" he's responding to the fact the RED SOX. HAVE. NO. FUCKING. STARTING. PITCHING. Hard stop. Devers lives in the DR, I doubt he's listening to Felger and Mazz every afternoon while reading what Dan Shaughnessy wrote in the Globe that day. Even if he did, the Sox are so low on the region's totem pole that he'd have to spend a long time to hear anything about the team that employs him. There is no concerted effort by the local media to be "mean" to the Red Sox. The Sox have done a shit job in three of the last four years and people are reacting to it. I'm not sure how you can argue against this.

As far as signing Montgomery, he makes sense today. I don't care about 2026--I'm not sure why you want to punt TWO seasons, but go for it. Also, signing Montgomery today to a multi-year deal would be cheaper then signing the Jordan Montgomery of 2026.
 
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Auger34

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And no, Devers isn't "responding as much to the noxious pessimistic narrative that has manifested around the Red Sox this offseason" he's responding to the fact the RED SOX. HAVE. NO. FUCKING. STARTING. PITCHING. Hard stop. Devers lives in the DR, I doubt he's listening to Felger and Mazz every afternoon while reading what Dan Shaughnessy wrote in the Globe that day. Even if he did, the Sox are so low on the region's totem pole that he'd have to spend a long time to hear anything about the team that employs him. There is no concerted effort by the local media to be "mean" to the Red Sox. The Sox have done a shit job in three of the last four years and people are reacting to it. I'm not sure how you can argue against this.

As far as signing Montgomery, he makes sense today. I don't care about 2026--I'm not sure why you want to punt TWO seasons, but go for it. Also, signing Montgomery today to a multi-year deal would be cheaper then signing the Jordan Montgomery of 2026.
The continued insistence to blame everything bad said about the Red Sox on the media, and specifically Masslive, is batshit insane. As if Raffy Devers is sitting around reading Masslive and letting that color his opinion of the team...it's truly galaxy brain stuff
 

BaseballJones

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Still unsigned even as spring training games kick off on Saturday:

Cody Bellinger
JD Martinez
Matt Chapman
Blake Snell
Jordan Montgomery
Tim Anderson
Michael Taylor
Tommy Pham
Gio Urshela

It's amazing, really. If the Sox wanted to spend $$ (which clearly they don't), they could instantly upgrade this roster in significant ways.
 

SouthernBoSox

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Still unsigned even as spring training games kick off on Saturday:

Cody Bellinger
JD Martinez
Matt Chapman
Blake Snell
Jordan Montgomery
Tim Anderson
Michael Taylor
Tommy Pham
Gio Urshela

It's amazing, really. If the Sox wanted to spend $$ (which clearly they don't), they could instantly upgrade this roster in significant ways.
Gio Urshela could back up third, first, and second while providing insurance on Grissom and would be an ENORMOUS upgrade over Bobby Dalbec.

He’s exactly what Breslow described a couple weeks ago.
 

BaseballJones

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Urshela wasn't great last year (only played 62 games and had a 91 ops+. But for his career he's got a 103 ops+ and has pretty good hit tools. I can't imagine he'd cost very much. He'd be very useful on this team.
 

simplicio

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Urshela would be fine (I prefer Solano's hit tool for the same role), but I'd be surprised if he can't get a starting gig elsewhere that he wouldn't prefer over a bench spot.
 

Marciano490

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Still unsigned even as spring training games kick off on Saturday:

Cody Bellinger
JD Martinez
Matt Chapman
Blake Snell
Jordan Montgomery
Tim Anderson
Michael Taylor
Tommy Pham
Gio Urshela

It's amazing, really. If the Sox wanted to spend $$ (which clearly they don't), they could instantly upgrade this roster in significant ways.
What happened to Anderson? He’s only 30 and went to hell last year. I remember reading some stuff about weird personal issues, but that BA drop was huge after years of hitting over .300.
 

nattysez

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What happened to Anderson? He’s only 30 and went to hell last year. I remember reading some stuff about weird personal issues, but that BA drop was huge after years of hitting over .300.
There was an MLB.com report that the Marlins want him as their everyday SS. That seems like a good place for him to try to revive his career. Although his numbers were still great until last year, he's gotten a little worse every year since 2020. OPS+ went 140, 118, 109, 60.
 

RS2004foreever

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Still unsigned even as spring training games kick off on Saturday:

Cody Bellinger
JD Martinez
Matt Chapman
Blake Snell
Jordan Montgomery
Tim Anderson
Michael Taylor
Tommy Pham
Gio Urshela

It's amazing, really. If the Sox wanted to spend $$ (which clearly they don't), they could instantly upgrade this roster in significant ways.
In a note at MLBtraderumors the Twins are not in the market and their payroll will be lower than in '23 is a list of teams that have said they are NOT in the market (Rangers, Blue Jays, Angels, Giants, Nationals and Mariners )
Impossible to deny that something is up - a resistence to longer contracts based I guess on lower projected cable revenues but that is starting to look like a buyers strike.
 

NJ_Sox_Fan

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Still unsigned even as spring training games kick off on Saturday:

Cody Bellinger
JD Martinez
Matt Chapman
Blake Snell
Jordan Montgomery
Tim Anderson
Michael Taylor
Tommy Pham
Gio Urshela

It's amazing, really. If the Sox wanted to spend $$ (which clearly they don't), they could instantly upgrade this roster in significant ways.
Yes, but depending on what contract, who do you really want from that list? I’d like one of Snell/Montgomery. I have zero interest in any of the hitters outside of Bellinger, and again, no clue what type of money he will command but I’d be very hesitant to give out any substantial money there considering his up/down history.
 

bernie carb 33

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In a note at MLBtraderumors the Twins are not in the market and their payroll will be lower than in '23 is a list of teams that have said they are NOT in the market (Rangers, Blue Jays, Angels, Giants, Nationals and Mariners )
Impossible to deny that something is up - a resistence to longer contracts based I guess on lower projected cable revenues but that is starting to look like a buyers strike.
Chaim wanted to be the Rays. Maybe Breslow wants to be the Twins.
 

joe dokes

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IDK. It's kind of the inverse of Lincoln's chestnut "it's better to be thought a fool than open your mouth and remove all doubt."
Maybe it's not the inverse at all. Henry is confident that no matter what he says, he will be called a fool. In a perfect world (or in your perfect world) what could he say that will make you feel better about the state of the Sox?
 

BaseballJones

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Yes, but depending on what contract, who do you really want from that list? I’d like one of Snell/Montgomery. I have zero interest in any of the hitters outside of Bellinger, and again, no clue what type of money he will command but I’d be very hesitant to give out any substantial money there considering his up/down history.
Montgomery, Snell, and Urshela. Instant major upgrade in the rotation and a really good backup IF.
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

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Maybe it's not the inverse at all. Henry is confident that no matter what he says, he will be called a fool. In a perfect world (or in your perfect world) what could he say that will make you feel better about the state of the Sox?
I think that if he explained, in a high level, the club's plans, I'd be okay with that. If he acknowledged that things haven't been great in the last few years but we're trying to right that ship, that would be helpful. If a reporter asked him why the Sox seem to shy away from big ticketed free agents now when they didn't in the past and he provided a good, honest answer that would be good as well.

What I'd like to hear is that the person steering the ship and making the decisions about the Boston Red Sox hasn't checked out. I don't think I'm asking too much of a guy who owns the team, hasn't gotten plenty of money from me and other fans to act like he gives a shit. Part of that is talking to the press. No one really enjoys doing this, but to me, it shows that you're plugged in. It's a bad look that John Henry was everywhere and talking to everyone when times were good, but the minute the Sox sink, he's nowhere to be found.
 

chrisfont9

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View: https://twitter.com/pgammo/status/1760400000360575052?s=46


Gammo just tweeted the betting odds of the Red Sox being heavy favorites to sign Montgomery.

It’s certainly got my attention.
Does being 1/1 favorites mean they are 100% likely or 50%? I always thought of 2/1 as 50-50, but I'm not a gambler. If I'm right, then the total odds add up to like 350%, which doesn't seem possible (and maybe says something about "newsbreak" as a source of, well, anything).
 

mikcou

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Does being 1/1 favorites mean they are 100% likely or 50%? I always thought of 2/1 as 50-50, but I'm not a gambler. If I'm right, then the total odds add up to like 350%, which doesn't seem possible (and maybe says something about "newsbreak" as a source of, well, anything).
50/50. 2:1 is 1 out of 3. Books charge a vig so an even bet means the book thinks the odds are actually a bit higher than 50%.
 

Tony Pena's Gas Cloud

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 12, 2019
374
From a societal perspective, paying athletes millions while teachers go paycheck to paycheck is insane. It creates a very perverse set of incentives.
Uh, no, it's simple economics. Employees are paid according to demand, scarcity, and generation of revenue. There are millions and millions of teachers in the world and, in terms of at least the public ones, they are a debt rather than an asset. Their salaries are greater than the revenue they generate. Professional athletes, however, are in the top 0.0001% in the world at what they do (there are about 500 NBA players, for example), and they generate billions of dollars in revenue. They're worth every penny. The day when Mrs. Jones the third grade math teacher can fill a stadium with chanting fans who buy cardigans in lieu of jerseys, then you may have a point. It's simple economics.
 

Rovin Romine

Johnny Rico
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Jul 14, 2005
24,608
Miami (oh, Miami!)
Uh, no, it's simple economics. Employees are paid according to demand, scarcity, and generation of revenue. There are millions and millions of teachers in the world and, in terms of at least the public ones, they are a debt rather than an asset. Their salaries are greater than the revenue they generate. Professional athletes, however, are in the top 0.0001% in the world at what they do (there are about 500 NBA players, for example), and they generate billions of dollars in revenue. They're worth every penny. The day when Mrs. Jones the third grade math teacher can fill a stadium with chanting fans who buy cardigans in lieu of jerseys, then you may have a point. It's simple economics.
Yes. A perverse set of incentives.
 

joe dokes

Member
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Jul 18, 2005
30,614
I think that if he explained, in a high level, the club's plans, I'd be okay with that. If he acknowledged that things haven't been great in the last few years but we're trying to right that ship, that would be helpful. If a reporter asked him why the Sox seem to shy away from big ticketed free agents now when they didn't in the past and he provided a good, honest answer that would be good as well.

What I'd like to hear is that the person steering the ship and making the decisions about the Boston Red Sox hasn't checked out. I don't think I'm asking too much of a guy who owns the team, hasn't gotten plenty of money from me and other fans to act like he gives a shit. Part of that is talking to the press. No one really enjoys doing this, but to me, it shows that you're plugged in. It's a bad look that John Henry was everywhere and talking to everyone when times were good, but the minute the Sox sink, he's nowhere to be found.
That's all fair. I think, though, that the number of people like you who would be satisfield with reasonable answers is very small. More likely, the minute he got done talking, he'd get ripped to shreds for lying, because "none of what he says matches up with (the shred-rippers') reality."


"We're trying to win and be sustainable."
(BULLSHIT!! YOU'RE LYING!! MOOKIE!!!!!!!!@!!!!!!!)

"Nobody hates losing more than me."
("BULLSHIT! LIAR! MOOKIE. XANDER.!!!!! You don't look miserable enough")

I think you have unintentionally zeroed in on an issue. Most fans these days are not like you. The team is losing. Henry could give the baseball equivalent of the Gettysburg Address and it won't move the needle for 95% of Sox fans. OTOH--If they are winning, he could say the Earth is flat, Dan Shaughnessy is God and smoking cigarettes is the key to good health and no one would give a shit. (I think I'm closer to the 95% than I am to you on this. I just want to see progress and meaningful baseball when the weather cools. Nothing John Henry whispers as he tries to stay upright in the stiff Gulf breezes will convince me that my hopes are either closer to or further from reality.)
 

uncannymanny

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 12, 2007
9,112
That's all fair. I think, though, that the number of people like you who would be satisfield with reasonable answers is very small. More likely, the minute he got done talking, he'd get ripped to shreds for lying, because "none of what he says matches up with (the shred-rippers') reality."


"We're trying to win and be sustainable."
(BULLSHIT!! YOU'RE LYING!! MOOKIE!!!!!!!!@!!!!!!!)

"Nobody hates losing more than me."
("BULLSHIT! LIAR! MOOKIE. XANDER.!!!!! You don't look miserable enough")

I think you have unintentionally zeroed in on an issue. Most fans these days are not like you. The team is losing. Henry could give the baseball equivalent of the Gettysburg Address and it won't move the needle for 95% of Sox fans. OTOH--If they are winning, he could say the Earth is flat, Dan Shaughnessy is God and smoking cigarettes is the key to good health and no one would give a shit. (I think I'm closer to the 95% than I am to you on this. I just want to see progress and meaningful baseball when the weather cools. Nothing John Henry whispers as he tries to stay upright in the stiff Gulf breezes will convince me that my hopes are either closer to or further from reality.)
It’s almost like when you shovel bullshit for years people might not believe you! But it’s all the fans fault. Or the complaining players. Or capitalism or something. ANYONE but the people actually running the team.
 

nattysez

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Sep 30, 2010
8,511
I'm curious to see if two weeks of increasingly rabid hostility leads to another pivot that results in the Sox landing Snell or Montgomery. I REALLY hope that's not how they do business (I'd prefer that they pick a reasonable plan and stick with it), but I guess we'll see.
 

joe dokes

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Jul 18, 2005
30,614
It’s almost like when you shovel bullshit for years people might not believe you! But it’s all the fans fault. Or the complaining players. Or capitalism or something. ANYONE but the people actually running the team.
Where did I say that the team's current predicament doesn't fall at the owners' feet?
I was responding only to the desire to hear John Henry speak and the idea that it would give some solace to Sox fans.
 

uncannymanny

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 12, 2007
9,112
Where did I say that the team's current predicament doesn't fall at the owners' feet?
I was responding only to the desire to hear John Henry speak and the idea that it would give some solace to Sox fans.
JWH only has himself to blame for those reactions (that are your imagination, FWIW).
 

joe dokes

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
30,614
I'm curious to see if two weeks of increasingly rabid hostility leads to another pivot that results in the Sox landing Snell or Montgomery. I REALLY hope that's not how they do business (I'd prefer that they pick a reasonable plan and stick with it), but I guess we'll see.
You're begging the question of whether landing Snell or Montgomery now is a pivot? Maybe it is. Maybe it's brilliant market-waiting. Regardless, such a move will be seen not just as "getting a player who is likely to be good," but as some sort of bigger indication that will serve everyone's confirmation biases. ("See, they are committed to winning." Or, "they have no plan. Just thumbs in the wind.")
 
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joe dokes

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
30,614
JWH only has himself to blame for those reactions (that are your imagination, FWIW).
Yeah, so what?

They *are* my imagination because they haven't happened yet. Do you really think that more than a handful of people will say, "Thank God John Henry talked. I feel so much better about things now"? I dont. No matter how much his words *might* soothe JMOH.
I'm not sure how anyone who pays any attention to the current commentariat culture could think differently.
 

chrisfont9

Member
SoSH Member
I think you have unintentionally zeroed in on an issue. Most fans these days are not like you. The team is losing. Henry could give the baseball equivalent of the Gettysburg Address and it won't move the needle for 95% of Sox fans. OTOH--If they are winning, he could say the Earth is flat, Dan Shaughnessy is God and smoking cigarettes is the key to good health and no one would give a shit. (I think I'm closer to the 95% than I am to you on this. I just want to see progress and meaningful baseball when the weather cools. Nothing John Henry whispers as he tries to stay upright in the Gulf breezes will convince me that my hopes are either closer to or further from reality.)
I don't think even winning would stop a lot of the carping. If they won another title, I guess it would buy them a few minutes' peace, but that's all.

I think there's a larger picture to the fanbase that has been incredibly spoiled beyond any reasonable hope, in all four major ball sports, such that we don't want what normal fans want. And to be clear, I am not saying this makes us bad people; any other fan base going through this would come out in the same spot, if you believe as I do that, generally speaking, people are people. What happened from that first Super Bowl to that last World Series is incredible, just mind-boggling. But sports winning is little more than a short term buzz for most people, which 100% wears off when the next season starts. I like to think of myself as more content than most Sox fans when it comes to the titles, but I'm right there the next season, being annoyed (or worse) after every loss. Except now, the losses still suck, but the wins don't mean much unless we get to another title. It really is like a drug in some (far less tragic) respects.

The Sox are in a pretty big rebuild, after two decades of massive success with only modest pauses/retooling. [The Pats, as usual, took this to even greater levels of absurdity, but reality caught up with them now too.] Given our attitudes, based on that experience, it's only natural that the negativity is at a high level right now, and no oratory milestone from Henry will change that. The only fix is more winning (which pauses the cycle but doesn't stop it) or people just changing their outlook somehow. I'd be fine with more winning, and even though I tend to think that it won't happen without committing to the rebuild for a bit, the 2013 Sox showed us that baseball is still kinda nuts and unpredictable, so why not? Anyway, the negativity will rage on until the team is completely removed from the dyansty-ish run that it enjoyed, which might take a while. I am happy to be here quibbling over the details of the rebuilding thing that is happening, but just do not see any point in anyone from the Sox trying to tone down the negativity.
 

KillerBs

New Member
Nov 16, 2006
944
I could not care less whether Henry deigns to mumble some Red Sox related platitudes into a microphone in the next week or three.

I am more interested in him authorizing the expenditures necessary to improve the team. Deeds not words at this stage of the game.

Related, if due to fan anger the team feels encouraged, even compelled, to spend on the roster (like when it decided to pay Devers), I will count this is as a win. Any notion that we are not completely beholden to the owners' whims on such matters would seem refreshing even if ultimately misguided.
 
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