I think Montgomery is better than slightly above average. There was a post made by another user in one of the threads (I can't find it) which showed that he was top 30 in basically all metrics. He was rock solid last year also has a knack for eating innings, which this team needs and may not get if they sign Snell. I do think Snell has more potential and a higher ceiling, but this team needs a workhorse. Given Montgomery's age and career stats, I think he probably plateaued with 2023, but getting him for 2yr/$48M would be an absolute steal. I wouldn't blink. I would also sign both if there is a chance. A very quick way to rebuild the rotation and let Bello develop into the ace rather than being the de facto ace.
Remaining Free Agent Speculation and Signings (Trades, too)
- Thread starter CR67dream
- Start date
Was that the line? Seems like that would be malpractice. I think it was more that he wouldn't finalize any deal for Montgomery. Then the market wasn't there for either.
Anyway, at this point Montgomery can wait until the season starts, which is in either three or 10 days depending on how the rules for the QO are written. At this point, that has to have more value to Montgomery than a week of ST where he's not going to get anything significant accomplished anyway, which is why I wonder if there may already be a tentative deal in place with someone, given the silence on that front.
I'm gonna go all pedantically contrarian on you for a sec here.
But I think it's an important point. As a near-absolute, I don't think there's anyone on the board who would oppose adding a quality established starter in a vacuum. Like if you could grab an inexplicably DFA'd guy at the league minimum, or a high-upside project pitcher that's "probably guaranteed" to work, you do it, just for the depth. (Thinner today with the Murphy news.)
The debate's really over whether they'd actually be an upgrade over who we have now, and whether the cost of that starter (trade or $) impacts future resources (and competitiveness). The last probably being the greatest concern for the majority of posters.
I agree that putting something like that creates a conflict of interest. I also think any suggestion that the Sox offer a contract conditional on both Montgomery and Snell signing is another conflict of interest that would be inappropriate for the Sox to offer or Boras to consider.
I think this was discussed at some point but was the consensus that the Sox can put a clause in an offer to Montgomery that they will not submit a QO? I'm wondering if they could structure a deal for Montgomery that includes an opt-out after year 1 where the Sox will be able to offer a QO but if Montgomery does not opt out then the Sox cannot offer a QO if he opts out after year 2 or 3. I think getting either of these guys for even just 2 years would go a long way towards stabilizing the rotation and allowing Breslow and Bailey to get the pitching system churning. But I would also be extremely hesitant to give up a draft pick to offer Snell an opportunity to opt out after one year.
It does? Have you looked at his overall career numbers? Have you looked at the chart that shows the status of last year's ERA leaders JA posted in the pitcher thread? I posted info below. The qualifying offer means that whoever signs Snell gives up draft compensation to San Diego. Someone more in tune with that stuff would know better than me what they would exactly give up.
Heather Linington-Noble
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Looked up the starting pitchers with the lowest ERA in 2023 and this is insane: 1. Snell, unsigned 2. Cole, injured 3. Gray, injured 4. Bradish, injured 5. Senga, injured 6. Steele, playing! 7. Gausman, injured 8. Montgomery, unsigned 9. Verlander, rehabbing
I don't think they can put in any clauses that are counter to the CBA, but I haven't seen that confirmed. And at this point, might as well just wait. As I said above, I'm still not sure when a player's "full season" actually starts as it applies to the QO rules, I'm not sure if it is when MLB starts the season, or when his signing team does. Either way, we're only looking at a max of 10 days until the QO no longer applies, and that should have more value to Montgomery than showing up somewhere for the tail end of spring training.
There's no issue with the Red Sox offering Snell and Montgomery deals that are contigent on each other. If the offer creates a conflict for Boras personally that's not the Red Sox problem. I'm sure Boras has game planned that out and has a process for advising or negotiating that if it happens.
On a separate note, I can't see how Montgomery is now holding out until opening day to avoid the QO if he gets a one year deal or opt out. If he's worried enough that a QO will depress his market next year then he should take the best offer he can get now. He's hit the market under probably the best circumstances he could have and without the QO. The odds that he'll have a better market next year are lower.
My read of the below is a player has to be with the team from Opening Day through season end?
Also, the below seems to definitively rule out the Sox agreeing to not offer a QO:
In a vacuum, maybe there's no issue with the Sox offering that contract. But if it does create a conflict for Boras such that he can't consider it, then it is worthless. It does seem like a conflict (for the agent) to say to an agent 'we'll sign player B if you get player A to sign here' but maybe I'm wrong. And maybe Boras does consider it even if it is a conflict.
What the signing team gives up depends largely on whether they are above or below the luxury tax. Teams above the luxury tax line (Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, etc) lose their second and fifth highest draft picks and $1M in international free agent bonus money for signing a player with a QO attached. Teams below the luxury tax (like the Red Sox) lose their second highest draft pick and $500K in international free agent bonus money.
For the Red Sox, signing Snell would cost them their 2024 second round pick, it's slot value (last year ~$1.7M), and $500K in international bonus money.
Unless Snell himself puts them over the line, which I think would be the case with the Bello extension.
Pretty sure the luxury tax status is based on the previous season. So the Sox going over this year would not affect this year's draft/compensation.
I have. In '21 and '22 had had a FIP of 3.31, which put him 29th in the Majors among starters - and this was supposedly in his down years. Over the last 3 years he is basically Aaron Nola. Getting him for 2 years is given the state of the rotation a pretty decision IMO.It does? Have you looked at his overall career numbers? Have you looked at the chart that shows the status of last year's ERA leaders JA posted in the pitcher thread? I posted info below. The qualifying offer means that whoever signs Snell gives up draft compensation to San Diego. Someone more in tune with that stuff would know better than me what they would exactly give up.
Heather Linington-Noble
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Looked up the starting pitchers with the lowest ERA in 2023 and this is insane: 1. Snell, unsigned 2. Cole, injured 3. Gray, injured 4. Bradish, injured 5. Senga, injured 6. Steele, playing! 7. Gausman, injured 8. Montgomery, unsigned 9. Verlander, rehabbing
I don't think they can put in any clauses that are counter to the CBA, but I haven't seen that confirmed. And at this point, might as well just wait. As I said above, I'm still not sure when a player's "full season" actually starts as it applies to the QO rules, I'm not sure if it is when MLB starts the season, or when his signing team does. Either way, we're only looking at a max of 10 days until the QO no longer applies, and that should have more value to Montgomery than showing up somewhere for the tail end of spring training.
You're right. The $500,000 in IFA pool cash is probably worth more than the draft pick, but neither are hugely valuable.
To add to Red(s)HawksFan’s post, the draft picks from the signing team don’t go to the team that lost the free agent, so while the team that signs Snell would suffer draft penalties they wouldn’t owe that compensation to San Diego. The player’s previous team gets a comp pick, the placement of which is based on whether they exceeded the CBT the previous year, and if not then whether they received revenue sharing and how much. Recall this was an issue with the Sox exceeding the tax in 2022, which dropped their comp picks for X and Eovaldi by two rounds. San Diego will receive a comp pick after the fourth round for Snell because they were over the tax last year.
I think what is going more unspoken here than it deserves is that both pitchers grossly misread their market/value going into free agency. This was being talked about on MLB radio this morning. It is not just the Red Sox, but about 15 other teams who either can afford them and/or have a need for them. Many things come into play when you wait this long. Teams move to plan B-C and allocate that money elsewhere. Now the issue, which was discussed at length, is how both BS and JM are going to new teams from last year, so it's not only the ramping up of innings, but a new team, new catchers, new pitching programs, new manager, new ballpark, etc...so now you may only be getting 5 months of a rotation guy, and that has ramifications for the rest of the staff. Simply put, their market is what a team is willing to give them a contract for, and so far, its nowhere near what they were led to believe and the clock continues to tick and the teams don't seem to be blinking first.
It appears that Boras misread the market for all of Snell, Montgomery, Bellinger, Chapman and JD Martinez. And I'm sure he'll have to something to say about how this happened at some point.
He will likely claim collusion by the owners. Doesn't seem like the kind of guy to admit to his mistakes. He has been a great agent for his players for many years, but maybe his time has past him?
I don't think anybody really knows what happened with the lack of demand for Boras's guys this offseason. Was he asking too much or were teams suddenly cautious because of some adverse financial data they're looking at?
I'm sure we'll get some post mortem analysis on it.
Are we implying that the lowest ERA starters are more likely to get injured here or what?It does? Have you looked at his overall career numbers? Have you looked at the chart that shows the status of last year's ERA leaders JA posted in the pitcher thread? I posted info below. The qualifying offer means that whoever signs Snell gives up draft compensation to San Diego. Someone more in tune with that stuff would know better than me what they would exactly give up.
Heather Linington-Noble
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Looked up the starting pitchers with the lowest ERA in 2023 and this is insane: 1. Snell, unsigned 2. Cole, injured 3. Gray, injured 4. Bradish, injured 5. Senga, injured 6. Steele, playing! 7. Gausman, injured 8. Montgomery, unsigned 9. Verlander, rehabbing
Giolito is out for the year and he had among the worst ERA in the league last year…
The most obvious reason is probably the correct one- Boras is overvaluing his guys. He's gotten away with it in the past but if you look at the track record of insanely highly paid baseball players- especially after a certain age, and ESPECIALLY pitchers past a certain age- they almost never produce what they're paid. Underperformance, injuries, eating money for them to pitch for other teams, etc....
I just went to a bunch of SxSW shows here in Austin where an 8 oz. margarita from a machine was being sold for $14 before any tip. They were $10 last year at the same place. Barely anyone bought the margaritass this year and opted for Garbage Lone Star beer... they dropped the price tag on the margs down to $8 the last day of SX and big shock... they sold the shit out of them.
Yeah, I really don't get the folks that are arguing that Montgomery is average-ish. He had an ERA+ of 139 and an ERA- of 74 last year. His ERA- is 7th in all of baseball among qualified pitchers and 13th among all pitchers with at least 100 innings. By FIP- he is 14th/17th. Considering "average SP" would be 75th or so, he's clearly way above average.
Yes, last year was his best season. Even if you look at the last three seasons combined, however, JM is still 35th in baseball among pitchers with at least 300 IP by ERA- and 34th by FIP-. He's also 17th in IP.
So regardless of whether one looks at the last three years or just last year, JM is clearly in the top 25% or so in IP, ERA- and FIP-. That's well above average. By those metrics he's either a #1 starter or at the very high end of #2 starters over the past 3 years.
If one defines ace as a top 5 or so starter, then yeah, he isn't that. But there is a lot of daylight between ace and "slightly above average."
No, though if you read the Pitcher thread, it's pretty clear that virtually any modern pitcher is more likely than ever to end up injured, seemingly in large part to today's approach of max effort.
In this context I just used it to illuminate some of the risk of investing huge dollars on a deal for Snell. It seems teams are seeing these risks, too, as he is now sniffing around for a pillow along with Montgomery while all but one of the other pitchers listed in that group aren't even throwing. And for the record, I am not advocating against signing him if that's the way they go, I'd just be completely shocked. My contention is simply that it really isn't an "easy decision". YMMV.
Someone brought up Giolito as well, and I'd just point out that he was bad last year, but he threw an almost identical number of innings as Snell, had always been thought of as durable, and then bam. It's just getting harder and harder to predict, and when investing anywhere from tens to hundreds of millions of dollars in these arms, particularly older and more worn ones, it is a scary proposition.
One big opportunity for improvement, or maybe lack of catastrophes, is if the inevitable bumps and bruises to the starters don't happen all at the same time, as they have the past two seasons? Their depth starters are probably Winckowski and Criswell (tbd), which probably won't be terrible in small enough doses. It's when you lose four guys and you have to go two more spots below Criswell for the next day's starter where the wheels really fall off. Plan A is to have the five starters make all their starts. Plan B is to have maybe up to seven guys with five or more starts, but no more. One more year like the last two and I would be lobbying for some sort of exorcism on the mound area.
The Giants always made the most sense.
Boy, this is as a pretty nice year to add talent via FA at some pretty unbelievable reasonable deals.
Frustrating the Red Sox have more or less not been involved.
Boy, this is as a pretty nice year to add talent via FA at some pretty unbelievable reasonable deals.
Frustrating the Red Sox have more or less not been involved.
That’s a bargain. Would be thrilled if the Sox got him for that. Of course, we know he prefers the west coast, and pitching in SF will be more to his advantage than Fenway would, so they would likely have had to do much than simply match it.
I don’t buy the Yankees story, they offered him 150/6 in January but, having spent little to no money in interim, won’t offer something that substantially beats this?
It’s quite possible that the Sox won’t have any offseason free agent signings make the major league roster- wonder when the last time that happened was?
It’s bargain time at least in part because the Red Sox have more or less not been involved.
edit - remove the Mets and Padres as well
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Is there any reason to think Montgomery will get much more than 3 years and $75 million with an option for a 4th based on games started?
The Giants now have 2/5th of the Rays '17 and '18 rotation.
The Giants now have 2/5th of the Rays '17 and '18 rotation.
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They did have a few internal FA’s, Eovaldi and Pearce, who were re-signed. But yeah, no external adds that year either.
According to this, the Padres receive a pick after the fourth round from the Giants.
https://www.mlb.com/news/2023-24-qualifying-offer-candidates-and-decisions
https://www.mlb.com/news/2023-24-qualifying-offer-candidates-and-decisions
I’ve thought about this overnight but the thought Snell signed for a 2 year deal with a team other than the Boston Red Sox completely sucks.
He signed for 25mm more than Lucas Giolito.
When we go back and look at these guys went for… there was a very real path to adding real talent on short dollars and staying under the tax in 2024.
It’s just frustrating
He signed for 25mm more than Lucas Giolito.
When we go back and look at these guys went for… there was a very real path to adding real talent on short dollars and staying under the tax in 2024.
It’s just frustrating
These opt outs could have a big impact on the free agent market next year as well, if Snell, presumably Montgomery, Chapman, etc. are added to the pool. That dynamic could push down salaries (and encourage players to sign extensions with their current teams).
Snell was clearly directing Boras to find the best WEST COAST deal he could find. This doesn't bother me in the slightest. I think the Sox and clearly a certain other east coast team didn't have a chance with him. Some players see making an insane amount of cash and playing where they want as preferable to making an even more insane amount of cash and playing where they really just don't want to.
At least a similar, if not the same, situation is going on with Montgomery but I don't think to quite the same extreme level. If he signs a similar deal with another team for like 2/$50M then I'll be as frustrated as you are with Snell. Hell, if he signs anything less than or equal to a 3/$75M deal elsewhere then I'll be pretty pissed at Henry.
Montgomery to the Astros now seems like the logical move to me, but nobody in baseball does what I expect so don’t listen to me.
If Snell is getting 2/62... where is Monty's market falling? Certainly something that the Sox are looking for... short term that keeps them under the tax.
If it's short term and small enough that Boston would stay under the tax, then I think it's pretty likely Monty will end up signing with a contending team for similar money.
Unless it's literally his only offer - which I doubt - I don't see any compelling reason why he'd take 2/$40m from Boston instead of similar teams (similar to the Yamamoto situation but lesser dollars, obv).
The only way I can see him settling for a short term deal from Boston is if it's literally all that's out there. Which I suppose is possible, but based on at least loosely reported interest from Texas, St Louis, Philly, the Yanks and the Cubs, seems unlikely. All of those teams are much closer to contention than the Sox and would ostensibly at least be similarly capable of absorbing a short term / low dollar deal (would have to be around $20m for tax purposes, I think).
That said, I'd adore it if the Sox came in with the @CR67dream suggestion of (I think) 5/$110m and dare Boras to turn it down. But, unfortunately, I don't think there is any chance the Sox offer anything approaching that.
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It’s frustrating. Of course, who knows if Snell was even giving us the time of day. Doesn’t seem like it. And I didn’t get the sense we had any interest either.
For whatever reason(s), seems like our interest in SPs ended with Giolito.
Giolito isn't real talent?
Snell was always a bad fit for this team. Would anyone clamoring for his acquisition honestly be satisfied paying $32m + QO implications for one of his sub-130 IP seasons? His contract is a huge gamble on being able to reproduce a CY performance in back to back years.
Just to be clear - I had no interest in Snell (reasonably speaking), and I'd be beyond pissed if the Red Sox gave him this exact deal.
The team needs stability in it's rotation for 2024 and beyond. I think it's nuts to project "this prospect that has shown nothing at AA or above arrives at this time" that are multiple seasons down the road but to then say "there's plenty of time between now and the start of the 2025 season" with regards to actual MLB players, but to each their own.
Montgomery I really want - but only on a long term deal. I have no interest in him on 2/$50m with an opt out after one.
Agree totally with @simplicio that Snell was always a bad fit for the Sox. Honestly, I have no idea what the Giants are doing, but that's not my concern at all.
The team needs stability in it's rotation for 2024 and beyond. I think it's nuts to project "this prospect that has shown nothing at AA or above arrives at this time" that are multiple seasons down the road but to then say "there's plenty of time between now and the start of the 2025 season" with regards to actual MLB players, but to each their own.
Montgomery I really want - but only on a long term deal. I have no interest in him on 2/$50m with an opt out after one.
Agree totally with @simplicio that Snell was always a bad fit for the Sox. Honestly, I have no idea what the Giants are doing, but that's not my concern at all.
My guess is Montgomery goes to Houston or New York (both of whom were in on Snell).
And when that happens I will be frustrated. The state of the rotation in '25 is Giolito (recovering from surgery), Bello, Crawford and one of Houck/Whitlock. Pivetta will be a free agent.
I'm right here with you. I do subscribe to the idea that if you can get into the playoffs you've got a shot, but I also want the team to take a step toward stabilizing the rotation for the next (at least) two seasons beyond this year. I'd like Montgomery here, but ideally on a 3-4 year deal.
This board will completely melt down when Montgomery signs for another team on a contract that the Red Sox surely could have afforded.
I think ownership is totally out on paying 20+ million per season on starting pitchers over 30, and that Breslow doesn't think Montgomery is enough of an improvement to try to convince the owners to make an exception.
Giolito already going down for the year is only going to make it less likely that the team spends even more on a vet free agent starter IMO.
I'm concerned that Breslow is overrating the arms we have in house, but we will see if he and his pitching system can surprise us and pretty much all the pundits and prognosticators.
I think ownership is totally out on paying 20+ million per season on starting pitchers over 30, and that Breslow doesn't think Montgomery is enough of an improvement to try to convince the owners to make an exception.
Giolito already going down for the year is only going to make it less likely that the team spends even more on a vet free agent starter IMO.
I'm concerned that Breslow is overrating the arms we have in house, but we will see if he and his pitching system can surprise us and pretty much all the pundits and prognosticators.