He kinda did lose it, and in fact I think Jrue might have gotten his finger on the ball. Murray was very fortunate to re-gather and get it up in time:
Injuries I get, but imo they should not be below 90% against anyone in the East, and round one should be higher. They haven’t lost 4 of 7 all season and are undefeated at home against the East. They are that damned good.
Denver beat the Celtics twice quite easily and is objectively a better team in closeout situations. Denver could get upset along the way, but not sure the Celtics would be significant favorites over the Nuggets.
That tracks. They don't have a lot of work in critical, final minute situations and their execution is consistently poor. Denver, on the other hand, is dominant, because Jokic.
This is a good exercise in the harsh reality of multiplicative probabilities, that even heavily favored teams have to win successive high probability though not 100% probability events. Steph Curry is an excellent free throw shooter, at 91.5%. Yet the chance he'll make his next 8 free throws, shooting at that percentage, is a shade under 50%.
It’s also a real good way of avoiding turnovers against that pressure while controlling clock. I watched a game the other night, I forget who now, they kept running the same stuff in the final minutes as they did all game….got outscored 14-0, had the ball in the wrong guys hands nearly every possession, and lost the game. It is hard to score in these end of game possessions but having the ball in your best scorers hands while controlling other factors involved is almost always going to be a teams best option.
The home game loss was a major fluke, and Boston just has a better team by a fair margin. Imo, with home court, Boston should win a 7-game series at least 75% of the time against Denver. Their net rating is a whopping 7 points above Denver’s. I know with Murray it’s a different team, but Boston is still significantly better imo. I think allowing past playoff disappointment factor in actually lets Boston off the hook.
I am aware of the math, but I still think without any major longer term injuries, the expectation should be Boston is about a coinflip to win the title. I’m unsure how to quantify injury risk, because everyone has injury risk.
Playoff basketball is more matchup specific than how teams performed against the other 28 teams rendering reg season net rating fairly worthless once you have the matchup. I wholeheartedly disagree with these percentages in a Denver series. They very well may be a nightmare matchup for us.
I don’t see it. To me, it comes down to how Boston shoots the 3. If they shoot it as they have all season, they should handle anyone. I believe expectations should be that they continue their performance into and through the playoffs. This is a team with 5 All-Star caliber starters.
Denver won’t have home court but if they did the series would be a pick ‘em or Nuggets slight favorite based on the current numbers. Boston is +210 to win Title, Denver +300 but that differential is almost all tied into the paths they face to get there.
I think you could say the game getting to the late game situation it did might have been a fluke. But there is nothing whatsoever flukish about Denver's excellence in those situations or the Celtics mediocrity in them.
I disagree about Stevens, but, that aside, what difference does it make? Mazulla does a lot of things differently than Stevens and Ime, much of it, at least this year, for the good.
The Celtics have largely been very good in those situations this year, and the expectation should be for that to continue. This is a very different roster construction than years past. Again, they are being let off the hook because “same old Celtics,” even though it’s a very new team that has shown itself to be superior to past iterations.
The WC and Denver's path will be MUCH harder this season. Denver is very dependent on the health of their TOP5, all will need to play sizeable minutes throughout the playoffs (11-9 without Murray this season).
Ray Allen, Paxson, Posey, Kerr, Bowen, Green, Horrey, etc, etc, etc all liked the kick-out pass from their superstars in big spots.
Stevens was definitely better at getting good shots ATO and end of game. He's one of the best ever at that.
Ok.
That’s not what I said, but it‘s probably pointless to keep going down this path because clearly my expectations are well above Vegas’s, though one caveat is I am assuming health and obviously understand if players go down for an extended of time that changes things.
It’s not the 90s, but the talent gap between the Celtics and everyone else in the East is pretty massive. Net rating is relative, after all. Unless the Sixers get a somehow in-game shape Embiid back and that’s the first round matchup (fuck the Heat, Celtics must crush), the Celtics should be the biggest favorite in the East since the Bulls Imo.
With the score within -5 to +5, time left in 4th quarter and/or OT.
It's more than a slight possibility that the Celtics end up with the hardest possible draw in the east - Philly (with Embiid) in round 1, Knicks (with Randle and Anunoby) in round 2, and Bucks in round 3. When healthy those are undoubtedly the 2-4 best teams in the east, in whatever order you want. Celtics are probably 75% likely to win each round (if those are the opponents, and healthy), which is about a 48% chance to get to the finals.
90% is a great estimate. The 8 seed has defeated the 1 seed 6 times since the 8-team format started in 1984. 30 years, 60 series, so it’s happened in exactly 10% of the series.
I'll take it a step further and say that for me, this Celtics iteration represents the last remnants of the 2001 to 2018 Boston sports dynasty. There is tremendous regional pressure on this team IMO
You misunderstood my position. Tatum in iso is able to make that decision to shoot or make the one pass for the catch and shoot while controlling the clock. I’m anti-ball movement in those end of game spots as there are so many things that can go wrong as I listed above.
I'm very much on your side here (in general, and with Tatum in particular), but with one huge caveat: teams have started loading up on Tatum really, really hard in those spots, since he isn't quite keeping them honest with passes. The game theoretic balance just isn't quite there.
I get that in theory, but JT makes it hard on himself against dug in defenses. He's been taking difficult shots against double teams and avoiding the pass at a pretty high rate. We saw more Mazzulla-ball with the ball in White/KPs hands today while burning clock. Being a little more diverse will create better looks for JT.
Yea, there was some frustration with the Refs on the game thread. Understandable. Lots of contact, bodying on the perimeter, bumping from behind, slapping at the ball, players barking, & quick trigger Techs for hand waves. It's a very inconsistent whistle from the start of the regular season. BUT in some ways, it feels like a halfcourt, grind it out "playoff whistle".
After DEN game, JB said he wanted more reps against Jokic. So maybe (hopefully) you’re correct.
I recall hearing JB say that post-Denver game. If the refs are going to allow bumping/physicality on the perimeter we want Jaylen locking up all the NBA Alpha's. He's much thicker than Tatum
PP is an energy boost off the Celtic bench (JJ Redick recently noted it on his pod) with the speed of his dribble after an opponent made basket. It's noticeable compared to the JAYs who slowly walk the ball up after a make. PP's box may look empty but that doesn't reflect his ability to push pace & create immediate cross-matches in the half-court. I'm firmly in the camp that White/PP should initiate the offense more often when they are on the floor.
They’re already difficult to beat just playing normally. If they play defense like that.. they won’t be beat.
The bad shooting from the Pels wasn't even all bad variance: the Celtics were contesting absolutely everything, except from bad shooters. The looks the Pels got after the 1st quarter were just utter garbage.
On the Pels broadcast, Antonio Daniels called out the Celts’ defensive effort in exactly this manner. With a hand in their face, the Pels were way below average shooting.
It was incredible. Zion himself seemed flummoxed that he couldn’t just bully JB to get to a spot like he could anyone else.
Yup, Zion is basically a bouncier Giannis with a lower center of gravity. It's the same defense, just easier because Zion is out of shape for an NBA player and Giannis is as relentlessly physical as any top player since prime Westbrook or Miami Lebron.
With Jaylen, X, Horford, & Jrue the Giannis Retaining Wall has never been stronger
I only finished my rewatch this evening (was out last night), but absolute co-sign there. NOLA scored 37 points in the first quarter (helped, admittedly, by probably a bit of luck on their 3s), and then 31 points in Q2 and Q3... combined. Probably aren't many teams who had 31 points across 2 consecutive quarters of a game this year. Maybe that abysmal Knicks - Philly game a few weeks ago that finished 79-73... yep, Knicks finished the first half with 31 points. But still.
