Clearly true, but at least after this series one doesn't have to squint to see how this team could make a legitimate playoff push if things do go right. I still think it's way more likely that they end up on the outside looking in, but despite the lack of FA signings I'm more optimistic now than I was a month ago.
This honestly might have been the best thing to see this first series. Bello, for example, got killed last year when he used his 4-seamer, but he seemed to continue going to it regardless. Don't think he threw any on Thursday.
No question. If he improves the quality of 350-400 innings he’s more valuable than signing Montgomery.
Boston may struggle at times scoring runs. A significant portion of the lineup has a year or less of experience. Casas was very good last year, but players sometimes struggle in their second year as the league adjusts. We don't really know what we have with Story at this point either and though O'Neill has looked great he is to some degree an unknown as well.
It’s almost like they did do something to address the rotation.
His last couple partial seasons, his numbers were suppressed some by a BABIP sub .290. I'd think he can do a sight better than that given his speed. Question is if he'll be healthy all year. I doubt we get 2021 O'Neill, but if that's in the cards, giddy up.
Is the sophomore slump thing purely anecdotal, or is there any evidence for it out in the world? I can't seem to find any. Some arguments that it's mostly BABIP regression in many famous cases of great rookie seasons.
Noted in the other thread, but some of this seems deliberate. Not a single one of the starters threw more than 84 pitches. Could have squeezed another inning out of each and every one of them but Cora opted not to. Probably just looking to protect their arms of this team's most wobbly asset, the starting pitching, in the early-going.
First time through the rotation as you point out.
These days innings pitched is usually dictated by the pitch count. The first couple of games 85-90 pitches is likely to be the absolute limit for most guys and some might not get that. One rough inning like Whitlock had yesterday can see you at half of your targeted pitch count after just a couple of innings. You're not wrong about needing guys to pitch into the 6th on a fairly regular basis and at times into the 7th and 8th to give the pen a break. Tough to do in the early going, but hopefully in the next few weeks we'll see pitchers pushing that 100 pitch mark.
Agreed with both these takes, which is why I wrote that the Sox are going to need them to go deeper - deliberately in the future tense.
Yeah, this seems deliberate. These arms are going through the ringer over the next months and none of them have iron man track records
So. . .this makes me wonder a bit about Varitek. I don't know anything about the Cora/Bush/Varitek dynamic as opposed to the Cora/Bailey/Varitek dynamic. But it seems that the approach is very different, and the results are much more competitive/positive in terms of both the individual starter outings, and thus, the chance to win games.
I knew you would - I just thought I'd try to put some numbers on it for the general conversation.
Quite possibly - maybe even very possibly. (I'd love it if anyone could point out some reporting on that sort of thing - I'm curious.)
It also gives Cora and Bailey a good opportunity to see how their various relievers perform and slot into roles.
I saw something Cora said over the weekend when asked about the Phillies leaving in a struggling Aaron Nola to get touched up for 7 runs, and Cora said that sometimes that has to happen to not overtax the pen and that he wants his starters to go at least 5 every time. I'm curious to see if that will hold when someone has one of those "meh" or "bad" starts. If say Crawford gets touched up in the second inning and faces 8-9 batters and gives up 4-5 runs, does he get hooked or does he go back out for the third (and fourth and fifth)? Do they risk falling too far behind just to prevent the pen from having to cover 6 inning instead of 3-4? The tendency used to be get a struggling starter out before he does too much damage, and maybe that changes a bit. I've long thought that the concerns about Houck's 3rd time through the order problem was a lack of experience because he'd get pulled too quickly. Maybe that will change now.
I don't think there is enough squinting i can do at this point to talk myself into the possibility of Story reversing the post-peak and free fall variety career arc we bought into. It hurts my brain to see us having to trot him out there as our 3/4 hitter.
He did rake this spring! Tough first 20 at-bats now that the year has begun, but I'm holding out hope.
He’s their Tyler O’Neill. Super talented hitter with a good approach and big pop, good defender in the corners and playable in CF, hurt all the time.
I think their greatest chance to be relevant at the trade deadline involves crushing less competitive teams. Even if they split series (or win series) against more competitive teams what happens elsewhere will determine the season. (Meaning if they go roughly .500 against the AL East clubs, but go under .500 against weak opponents while the Birds or the Yanks go over .500. . .they're done.)
Yes, we could have been 3-1 (if not for Reyes playing 3B in game 3 instead of Dalbec, and Rodriguez having made the team). But we could have been 0-4, if the starting pitching had really been as bad as predicted. If you had told me going into Seattle that we'd have gone 2-2, I would have jumped at the prospect...so, it's definitely a glass half-empty vs. half-full sort of thing.
We split against an 88 win team last year with a really good rotation and didn't have our best hitter for our 2 losses, and yes, we let one slip away. Now just take care of business against these next 2 lesser teams, and head to the home opener with some confidence that our pitching just may be way better than most pundits and many on here predicted. I like this team so far.
It's not really though, unless you're only talking about subjective expectations. You may have personally be surprised that the pitching would be excellent. (I think you are far from alone in that boat.) But does that really matter? In the real world, at the end of the day, the pitching was excellent.
Yep. It's time to ignore the pundits and look at what's actually going on.
Yes, that will help the pitchers stay away from prolonged innings. A lot have mentioned how Story stabilizes SS, and Rafaela in CF and Duran in LF is much stronger than Duran/CF Yoshida/LF, but how about Tyler O'Neill out there? a two time GG, his bat has started hot, and he has already made some great plays on defense. Please stay helthy, TO!
The Glob has some quotes about Bello and his 4-seam fastball:
So the plan is not to abandon it permanently and to probably use it more later in the season.
If and when any regulars get hurt or otherwise we need more offense, the Sox are well positioned to pick up a veteran bat - plenty of $$ available, and rentals are fine given the bats coming up probably next year.
I do think Valdez has been a lot better defensively, but it's not like he's lighting it up at the plate. Swinging at air a ton.
Possibly a byproduct of Camp Story? Personally, I think this was and incredibly valuable show of leadership.
Agree on the D. He is making the plays that he should. As for the bat, it is nice to have a guy in the lower 3rd of the batting order who has the ability to hit one out of the park at any time. He only has around 150 MLB at bats with 7 HR. In 2022 he hit 28 across AA/AAA with a .918 OPS. He just turned 25 in late December.
Sure, I think he has potential to be a solid bat, just don't think he's been good enough at the plate to justify not giving Grissom a ton of run, even with the improved D.
