Dugger WITH AN E is back With the Pats (4 years 58M)
- Thread starter NDame616
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That's quite a bit of money.
He's a great player though, hopefully he continues building his leadership skills and can keep hitting people hard.
He's a great player though, hopefully he continues building his leadership skills and can keep hitting people hard.
Don't love the deal because I think Dugger was awesome playing the spot in which Adrian Phillips and Peppers were also awesome at, and he wasn't anything special last year in a deeper role. But then again, he's a good player and they have money to spare so who cares, bring him back.
Though I have to say I don't really love spending all this money and still needing a deep safety. The Peppers/Justin Simmons combo would have made a lot more sense.
Though I have to say I don't really love spending all this money and still needing a deep safety. The Peppers/Justin Simmons combo would have made a lot more sense.
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Misread his value, misread the market, misuse of the tag, misuse of the cap.
I like Dugger, but (without seeing the details) this money could have served the team better in a million other ways.
I like Dugger, but (without seeing the details) this money could have served the team better in a million other ways.
Agreed, in the Pats' evaluation apparently 2-3 highlight reel plays per game overshadow a whole batch of plays where he doesn't carry out his responsibilities.
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I'd argue it's not fair to judge many members of the team, offense/defense/special teams or otherwise, based on the shitshow that was the 2023 season. Hopefully they can utilize him more as an in the box safety going forward where he'll provide better play, and value, for the contract they just gave him.
The weird part of this deal for me is that, yes, box safety seems to be his ideal role. But also Julius Peppers' ideal role. And maybe Marte Mapu's ideal role if he pans out. SO they seem to be loading up on one type of safety while not having other types (safeties who play in space like McCourty or Harmon, safetys who can cover TEs like Chung, etc.).
I think it's a really good deal. The contract for all intensive purposes is a 2-year deal then we'll see given the guarantees. For a player of Dugger's ability and age, that's what you want. They are not in the business of letting talented players walk out the door, so locking up another drafted and developed player is a positive development.
Seems fine, we'll see the final structure but looks like one where the team has outs after 2 and 3 years. Dugger was somewhat miscast last year by necessity, but previously he was one of the best in the league at his role, would have easily gotten a biggest deal than this last year. Peppers is in his final year with far less history of top play and Mapu is still an unknown. We'll see if they add a cover FS (they used a 30 visit on one so I'd guess they are looking) but overall they have plenty of cap and Dugger is a decent way to use some of it.
Feels like this addressing the culture issue Mayo outlined wrt retaining drafted players who do their job, more than optimizing every dollar in the cap against the best possible mix of players.
I‘m not saying that’s a bad idea — probably makes to do that culture building to at least some degree. But at a certain point, culture’s not catching passes or keeping pass rushers off the QB.
I‘m not saying that’s a bad idea — probably makes to do that culture building to at least some degree. But at a certain point, culture’s not catching passes or keeping pass rushers off the QB.
The team stunk last year, but had some decent players. They are all coming back. This is a good thing.
It’s equivalent to what he would have gotten on the open market, so cannot complain. Need to wait for the details, but probably cuttable in 2 or 3 seasons if need be.
And if he's truly redundant they can probably trade him this next offseason. Doesn't seem that risky.
Yeah, this feels an overpay to a nice player, at a somewhat fungible position. Particularly with cheaper in house candidates available to provide most of what he does.
One thing I am noticing... People putting way too much emphasis on Peppers.. Really good year last year, he's also older than Dugger and was closer to out of the league than a starter before that. Maybe he's good (and healthy) this year, but he's far from a reliable player short or long term. He shouldn't be much of a consideration in a Dugger re-signing decision
My point is precisely that Adrian Phillips, a career special teamer, and Jabrill Peppers, a fringe NFL player and bust of a first round pick, both performed at a similar level to Dugger when placed in that role. I think they can fill that spot and get good production for much cheaper. I also like that they've kept the defense in place on the other hand.
Yeah I don’t understand the idea that Dugger is redundant with Peppers given Peppers (while great last year) is a pending free agent and has really only had one great and healthy year.
If last year is indicative of Peppers’ level of play moving forward and not a career year (perhaps due to Belichick), his market value is going to be greater than what a rebuilding team should pay for an aged 30+ safety.
If he regresses back to his pre-2023 form this year, he’s probably not a guy worth retaining anyway. Or if he is, he’s not a guy whose presence makes you pass on Dugger.
I just don’t see too many paths where retaining Peppers beyond 2024 make sense for this team.
Perhaps but Phillips fell off significantly and wasn’t worth the extension he got and I think there’s a good argument to be made that it was the Belichicks and Peppers’ health which led to his breakout
Peppers has always had talent but never the ability to stay healthy. He had a number of both small injuries (he played through) and major ones which derailed him.
I think it’s very questionable as to whether or not the Pats will be able to continue to get useful starting production from other teams’ role players and backups with a different coaching regime. As such, I wouldn’t assume they will be able to easily find quality starting level guys for cheap.
When it comes to defense, Belichick had a knack for finding gems (undrafted guys or veteran spare parts). Wolf is probably not going to have that same level of success.
I don't think either played as well or as broad a role as Dugger. If money was tight I could see trying to save there, but given the money situation keeping the best guy is more important especially given his green dot role
"Older than Dugger" I don't think is significant.
Dugger was born on March 22, 1996; Peppers on October 4, 1995. Six months difference.
It is in terms of evaluation to point out he isn't some younger player likely to be improving, but a worse version of Dugger who isn't likely a long term solution
Not to mention that Peppers has three more NFL seasons’ worth of miles on his body.
I think Dugger's performance dipped significantly precisely when asked to play a broader role. But you're right, they have the money, don't have much of an issue with the contract.
I think in 2022 he did more things well than Peppers did in 2023. I agree that in 2023 he was asked to do even more different things and struggled. I think he can't be asked to play CF or defend down the field, but I think he does more things well in the SS role than Peppers who I think is more limited.
Psyched about this. With the size of the cap, losing productive NFL players is dumb. Dugger can play.
I like the guy but I think this - that’s a lot of money to tie up in a less important position and for a guy who struggles in coverage. But what do I know.
I totally get what you mean and what KFP said that you quoted, but my feeling is that there are other examples of "value" here, including - and this may be stupid, but I think it's temporary and, if not necessary, then at least...advisable - sending a message to the locker room and the league that the team is willing to extend to bring back their own draftees who do things "the right way" and that they recognize and value the importance of development and core leadership. I prefer economic value over touchy-feely, but I do think there's a strategic place for this kind of signing.
Welcome back, Dugger.
You could definitely talk me into that, as there are ten million things I don’t know about how an NFL locker room works. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I don't see it. Dugger was always asked to cover a lot more and a much larger area of the field when he had that role. In terms of other performance Dugger also missed/misses fewer tackles.
Peppers had a great, career year last season... he was also not asked to do what Dugger had the previous few years, he was playing a lot less coverage and a lot more quasi-linebacker blitzing and rushing the passer more and handing off coverage to other players.
Peppers was credited with about as many blitzes in 2023 as Dugger had in 2022 and 2021 combined, they changed the role some when they put in Peppers because they trusted him less in coverage.
Does Simmons want a 2 year deal? The Patriots might value someone that's been in the building for 4 years as well. It's not always apples to apples when comparing an outside player to a returning player.
Where did you find this data? The free safety is generally responsible for larger field coverage. This year, Dugger lined up as a deep safety or in the slot on 48% of his snaps. Peppers was at deep safety or in the slot on 59% of his snaps.
He also had some of the worst rates in the league for both completions against and yards against. Like, bottom 5 in both. He gave up a lot of completions for a lot of yards. Considering the size of the cushion he was giving people, I'd hope he would at least tackle them.
Again, I'd be interested to see where you got this information. Dugger ranked fourth among all defensive backs with 15 quarterback pressures, so he was clearly doing his fair share of "quasi-linebacker blitzing and rushing the passer".
Well, this is ridiculously disingenuous and misleading just so you can try to make a point. "Peppers had more blitzes in 2023 than Dugger had in '22 and '21"...but not more than Dugger had THIS year. Dugger was credited with 55 pass rushes to Peppers 39 this season.
Dugger had more blitzes, spent more time in the box instead of as deep safety, and got absolutely roasted in both catches and yards per catch when he was in coverage. But he had a higher tackle rate, so...he had more responsibility or something.
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You responded to a post comparing Dugger in previous years to Peppers this year, hence why I compared Pepper to Dugger's previous years not this year.
Peppers average depth of target was incredibly low, he simply did not cover players down field, in previous years Dugger was covering much deeper.
The discussion has been about whether Dugger is better in the role he played in previous seasons, not whether Dugger is better at the role he played last year than Peppers was in the role he played last year. Nobody disputes that Dugger had a poor year last year in his new role, but also people don't think that's the role he's going to play going forward, the question is whether long term you'd rather have Pepper or Dugger as your primary box safety.
Edit- also you are completely misreading that Lazar tweet. It has nothing to do with cushion, he was playing essentially FS this year, that has nothing to do with cushion and everything to do with position/role. He's not lining up opposite a WR 8 yards deep.
Ok, but whats the point? Duggers coverage numbers were "fine" in his first 3 seasons, but he also played in the box at a more than 5-1 ratio. When he was asked to simply play coverage 40% of his snaps, he became one of the worst coverage safeties in the NFL. If your point is that he's better suited to be a more exclusive box safety, I don't think anyone disagrees with you. The point most people are making is that it doesn't make a ton of sense to pay that type of player the contract he just received.
You keep saying that Dugger played more deep safety than Peppers and thats why he struggled, but I dont see that anywhere. It seems to me they both played the same position - a hybrid role where responsibilities shift based on which side of the field is the strong side. Traditional coverage safeties move from the left side of the field to the right side of the field based on the strong/weak side of the formation. Its why guys like Fitzpatrick, Winfield, Bates, etc will play nearly 50% of the snaps as the left safety and 50% as the right safety. Thats not what happened in New England. Nearly all of Dugger's snaps were on the left side of the field. Nearly all of Peppers snaps on the right side of the field. If Dugger was tasked as the deep safety so often, those numbers would be statistically impossible.
Dugger/Peppers played the same role, the responsibilities simply shifted depending on the strength of the formation. Peppers flourished. Dugger didn't.
The response was a little tongue-in-cheek and not really crafted well. I'm aware that Dugger played deeper more often this season, and that would affect his average cushion numbers.
From pro-football-reference.com - Coverage stats in 2023:
Dugger: 64 targets, 44 completions, 68.8%, 478 yds, 7.5 yds/tgt, 1 td, 2 int, 82.7 rating
Peppers: 35 targets, 23 completions, 65.7%, 173 yds, 4.9 yds/tgt, 2 td, 2 int, 72.7 rating
Avg depth of target:
Dugger: 8.3 yds
Peppers: 5.5 yds
Even if this is an overpay, it isn't a bad overpay. Dugger is in his prime, knows and can be effective in the system.
Not only does he know the system better than most, he wears the dot, calling and adjusting all plays. Who would be another candidate to wear that hat?