Well he can't get "expensive" for a few years, as he doesn't even hit Arbitration 1 until 2027. And that won't be very expensive. It'll only really hit the Sox in the last couple of years of arb, which won't happen til 2028 and 2029, and a lot can happen between now and then.
I won't speak for anyone else, but my only hesitation here is that we haven't seen him with the ability to hit MLB pitching. The guys the Braves extended showed more MLB prowess at this point. As far as I can recall, anyway. I could be wrong.
I agree with the overall tenor of "I'm excited, but lets see the terms".
I have a feeling that this is going to be mostly a time-shifting move when we see the details. If they can spend some money this year and stay under the cap in order to save some money in future years, they seem eager to do it. Even if it's just buying the reasonable value of the arbitration years.
By definition the team thinks this is a money saving move for them. People will absolutely question it - and they should.
I think you're focusing on the downside of an early signing (i.e. we don't have enough info to know he can hit major league pitching) and not the upside of an early signing (i.e. this contract should be much cheaper than one he would theoretically sign after he proves he can hit MLB pitching).
That deal would have zero team risk associated with it, assuming those are team and/or mutual options.
Good point. It was semantics, but he has very good speed. I suppose I am waiting to see if it translates into a SB skill in the majors. (Not everyone makes the jump but I think he probably will.)
The difference here is we aren't the buyer of the car. Nobody here is a party to the transaction and presumably both sides have far more information than some random in their mom's basement.
That's very kind of you, but the way baseball economics work you have to screw the productive younger players to have money to waste on older players when they break down. The Red Sox don't have to pay him any more than $725,000 this year and control his rights for 5 more.
The source was mlbtraderumoras.com. I had trouble adding the link, so I just posted what I saw. Lighten up a little.
A lot of comps get made to JBJ (for good reason); Fangraphs pegs his first Boston stint, ages 23-30 with only three positive offensive years, as worth around $125m.
Thanks - clarified above, those are indeed club options in Keith’s contract.
In a pure dollars calculus, this is correct. But I think it's also good business to "overspend" by a bit (as compared to the minimum salaries and what arbitration might bring at the relevant time) to help ensure that outside perceptions of incompetence/notgivingashit/whatever don't infect the clubhouse.
No? Think you misread the blurb:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/04/red-sox-ceddanne-rafaela-extension.html
The link is:
Getting it right is not too much to ask.
It’s new for the Red Sox, at least at this scale.
Hey, its my basement.
As soon in the posts above, you were very careless. The numbers you quoted were for Bello's extension. Try to do better next time and don't commit an unforced error
Even if you don't get it right, identifying the source is not too much to ask. Even if you can't get the link to work, it's not that much extra effort to type that you saw it on mlbtraderumors or whatever. At least that gives us the option of going out to find the info ourselves.
Yeah, I butchered the metaphor. Just trying to point out that making ironclad declarations with little information is the coin of the realm.
Well sure, I get how arb works, so presumably this is actually an "extension" in that it goes beyond the arb years. Otherwise there would be no reason for the Sox to do this. It would be tantamount to negating the CBA and would presumably draw some private rebukes across the league.
I’m excited to sign this kid long-term but I would never assume the local press would be unable to butcher it
Yeah, I was going to say, we've already watched Little Rafi turn a routine line drive down the LF line into a triple. He may not be Jarren Duran fast, but he's fast.
At the least it guarantees them options as they have the spot stabilized for the length of the deal (I'm going to guess six with a couple of option years).
Oh yeah‽‽‽ Well I have a spreadsheet that I did that shows that the Red Sox locked Rafaela up for 189% below market value for the next eight years!!! And mine is peer reviewed by this guy that I work with and my Boston Sports Facebook Group!!!
My name is Chaim Bloom and I can paint that car for $99.95!
You didn't -:the original post proclaiming anyone who blindly accepts this as good deal is essentially a sucker made that mistake.
Given the front office's frugalness under Breslow I'm not concerned that they overpaid. I would be shocked if it is not team friendly given the amount of existing control the Sox had.
Ceddanne Chipper Nicasio Marte Rafaela is an anagram for “Ceddanne, Panoramic Eclipse Aria Father.” Make of it what you will…
It’s also a big difference with inflation. You are spending un-inflated dollars now looking forward five years from now. Contracts can out-pace inflation as well. It’s a perfect way to spend resources in a year or years you probably shouldn’t be going over. Like mentioned above, it does carry some risk, but so does everything. With that said, I’m assuming terms are decent because I would have expected Tristan next.
hard to complain about just over 6 per for a guy who can hit at or beneath JBJ levels and still be a solid starter.
Funny to think that Ceddanne's mother got into the Braves presumably because of Willemstad's own Andruw Jones only to become more connected to Chipper.
This doesn’t seem like some enormous discount at all unless I am missing something.
I just don’t get the point of assigning the contract risk for one year of free agency.
