Red Sox, Ceddanne Rafaela agree to contract extension

Red(s)HawksFan

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I'm not sold on Rafaela yet so an eight year commitment this soon doesn't make me giddy. But if he lives up to the expectations everyone seems to have for him, that's a solid contract. If the article is correct, it buys out two free agency years. Assuming a conservative track through arbitration, he was probably looking at $750K, $800K, $900K, $4M, $8M, $12M through 2029. That makes the last two years roughly $12M each. Not too bad. The biggest benefit to the Red Sox is pulling those later year hits forward, taking a ~$6M hit now to not take a ~$12M hit in 2029. Could prove helpful at that point.
 
Max Power

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simplicio said:
2 years, and that seems like a huge bargain. He needs to collect about 5-6 WAR over the next 8 years for this to be a positive value.
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Unless you compare it to what they would have paid in the pre-arb and arb process, that's not true. He's not a free agent, so comparing it to free agent contract values makes zero sense.

The biggest risk in this contract is if Rafaela never learns to hit and the Red Sox feel like they need to keep starting him because they're paying him. If they're willing to make him a backup, then it's probably fine.
 
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simplicio said:
2 years, and that seems like a huge bargain. He needs to collect about 5-6 WAR over the next 8 years for this to be a positive value.
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I'm generally OK with this, but IMO "seems like a huge bargain" comes with a huge IF attached to it. Like with many trades, I think we need to see a couple of seasons before we can determine how successful a signing this is. Perhaps it also serves as a positive message to the team and beyond that there is a commitment to the future of the young developing core of this team.
 
Yaz4Ever

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I'm happy about this deal. I'm higher on this kid than a lot of people here, I know, but I think we'll look back at this as a pretty good value even if he's a glove only guy.
 
johnlos

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DeJesus Built My Hotrod said:
Its for sure an overpay. I have a spreadsheet that I worked on all by myself that shows it!

If they are locking this guy up that means they think he is going to get "expensive" (in the forward value sense) really quickly. It may be a bad call but if they believe in him they are supposed to extend him.

Also, the next time this board has a good handle on a pro athlete's true market will be the first. Its not our fault - we are at a huge information disadvantage to the professionals we follow. Their results, with much more data, is mixed so our takes are pretty silly overall. Oh, except yours.
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Please please I'm begging you show us the spreadsheet. Please.
 
Red(s)HawksFan

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Max Power said:
Unless you compare it to what they would have paid in the pre-arb and arb process, that's not true. He's not a free agent, so comparing it to free agent contract values makes zero sense.

The biggest risk in this contract is if Rafaela never learns to hit and the Red Sox feel like they need to keep starting him because they're paying him. If they're willing to make him a backup, then it's probably fine.
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If he ends up the fourth outfielder while Roman Anthony and Miguel Bleis are starting and getting paid pre-arb salaries, I don't think having him on the bench is prohibitive. Particularly if the alternative is a free agent (say a Tommy Pham type) making a similar salary.
 
simplicio

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A starting CF who can field that well doesn't really need to hit to be worth $6.25m through his age 30 season. That's just a valuable asset and if Anthony and Bleis are good enough to kick him off the team halfway through it's a tradeable one.
 
Pedroia's Itchy Nose

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simplicio said:
2 years, and that seems like a huge bargain. He needs to collect about 5-6 WAR over the next 8 years for this to be a positive value.
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I don't think that it quite makes sense to think about it that way as Ceddanne is not a free agent, so the whole $8m per WAR rule doesn't apply.

The value of this contract can only really be evaluated in comparison to what the arbitration process would have looked like. In six years we will likely have a good sense of what he would have earned had he gone through arb. We can subtract that from 50mm and then whatever the remaining amount is will determine what kind of production in years 7 and 8 will make the contract "good." Of course if he is so good that he would have made more than 47ish mm in arb then his contract would be good regardless of years 7-8.
 
moondog80

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Red(s)HawksFan said:
If he ends up the fourth outfielder while Roman Anthony and Miguel Bleis are starting and getting paid pre-arb salaries, I don't think having him on the bench is prohibitive. Particularly if the alternative is a free agent (say a Tommy Pham type) making a similar salary.
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The alternative wouldn’t be a Pham type, it would be Rafaella at a lower AAV.
 
chrisfont9

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Pedroia's Itchy Nose said:
I don't think that it quite makes sense to think about it that way as Ceddanne is not a free agent, so the whole $8m per WAR rule doesn't apply.

The value of this contract can only really be evaluated in comparison to what the arbitration process would have looked like. In six years we will likely have a good sense of what he would have earned had he gone through arb. We can subtract that from 50mm and then whatever the remaining amount is will determine what kind of production in years 7 and 8 will make the contract "good." Of course if he is so good that he would have made more than 47ish mm in arb then his contract would be good regardless of years 7-8.
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So would you say he needs to get like 5 WAR in the three post-arb years to make that a bargain?
 
Fishy1

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Obviously waiting to see the terms, but the guy is a stud defensively and absolutely crushed the ball the last couple years in AA and AAA. Plate discipline issues are very real, but if he can hit get a wrc+ around or just below 100 he'll be a 3 WAR player. Good for them for locking him up.

Edit: Thats a lot of years and not a lot of money. Hell yeah.
 
moondog80

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Red(s)HawksFan said:
The alternative to Rafaela on the bench with his ~$6M AAV is Rafaela on a somehow lower AAV? How does that work?
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If he’s a 4th OF he won’t be making that much in his arb years (the period in which Anthony is pre-arb).
 
MikeM

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Not to beat a dead horse even more but this kind of early contract reach comes across as a fairly curious one to me following a winter we were apparently pinching pennies on our available free agent budget.

I mean if waiting an extra year to be more sure on that bat doesn't min/max out as high on the total "savings"...does it really matter that much in the bigger picture? It's not like this is Tampa.

Not a fan of doing this right now.
 
Lose Remerswaal

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MikeM said:
Not to beat a dead horse even more but this kind of early contract reach comes across as a fairly curious one to me following a winter we were apparently pinching pennies on our available free agent budget.

I mean if waiting an extra year to be more sure on that bat doesn't min/max out as high on the total "savings"...does it really matter that much in the bigger picture? It's not like this is Tampa.

Not a fan of doing this right now.
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If he’s good then you can’t do this next year, so when would you have liked to extend him?
 
CarolinaBeerGuy

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I think this is a great move. Is there risk? Sure. There’s also a good chance he far exceeds the value of this contract through defense alone. Bring it on.
 
Rovin Romine

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Red(s)HawksFan said:
If he ends up the fourth outfielder while Roman Anthony and Miguel Bleis are starting and getting paid pre-arb salaries, I don't think having him on the bench is prohibitive. Particularly if the alternative is a free agent (say a Tommy Pham type) making a similar salary.
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Sure, if it were the only contract in isolation, but that's never the case. At the end of the day, you don't want multiple guys with dead-weight contracts (even moderately sized ones) clogging up the roster, or being given chance after chance.

(Thought experiment - what if we extended Dalbec based on his 2020 and 2021 rebound?)

I suppose I'm only agnostic about the deal because Ceddane needs to improve his bat, and the Sox don't really have a sterling track record there. But this seems to be an all-in commitment.

patinorange said:
It's a gamble. I have no problem gambling with a billionaire's money. We know he's a major league outfielder. No doubt about that. Hitting? We shall see.
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Well, we know it's not like that billionaire is somehow always going to keep gambling or making the signings/extensions we want. So I hope it works.
 
nattysez

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Max Power said:
The biggest risk in this contract is if Rafaela never learns to hit and the Red Sox feel like they need to keep starting him because they're paying him. If they're willing to make him a backup, then it's probably fine.
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The Rusney Castillo Experience suggests they'll be willing to eat the cash or have him ride the pine as needed.
 
RG33

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moondog80 said:
The terms are everything.
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Not when it:

1.). Is not your money
2.). Will not be anything close to a restrictive type contract

it is likely 5-6 years and $35-45m. AAV is likely $8m tops. It is irrelevant with a payroll that will be $200m+ and growing in the coming years.
 
CarolinaBeerGuy

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RG33 said:
Not when it:

1.). Is not your money
2.). Will not be anything close to a restrictive type contract

it is likely 5-6 years and $35-45m. AAV is likely $8m tops. It is irrelevant with a payroll that will be $200m+ and growing in the coming years.
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As reported upthread, the deal appears to be 8 years / $50 million.
 
simplicio

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Rovin Romine said:
(Thought experiment - what if we extended Dalbec based on his 2020 and 2021 rebound?)
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There was no 2021 rebound, his hitting fell off from exciting to LHP platoon and we had a full season of watching him butcher 1B.

Can we get the thread title changed to reflect terms?
 
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CarolinaBeerGuy said:
As reported upthread, the deal appears to be 8 years / $50 million.
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Yeah, I responded before seeing it. Purposely.

I think it is a great deal, and love the Sox prioritizing their young talent over older free agent pitchers <ducks>
 
opes

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Great situation for everyone. Thats going to be a nice discount down the line likely. I mean, we've paid way more for worse before. This is small potatoes even if his leg falls off tomorrow. Low risk, high reward.
 
DennyDoyle'sBoil

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Well, the 8 year deal really makes for kind of weird CBA consequences.

I love the idea of spending up to the cap this year to take away spending in future years. But $6 million a year in the next few years when his salary and tax hit would have been much lower is a bit of a drag. It's not that much money. But tacking on an additional $5.x million next year on top of the money that we have to pay Giolito for possibly missing some of the year is not great if the team is going to be under another budget constraint next year.
 
koufax37

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It is a great gamble and the type of deal that if we make five of, the sum of the parts is very likely to be a team benefit (the singular one is a risk for injuries, or the chance that the player does not pan out).

Obviously how the hit tool plays out determines whether we have JBJ v2 or Betts v2 (or most likely somewhere in between). I love what I have seen of him on TV and in person (went to two of the games this weekend, and the triple was pure baseball beauty).

His hit tool will be measured in 500+ PA chunks, but the irrelevant eye test, the speed/defense/arm, and the .806 OPS in 1852 minor league PAs definitely has me optimistic and very happy with this extension.
 
MikeM

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Lose Remerswaal said:
If he’s good then you can’t do this next year, so when would you have liked to extend him?
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What do you mean you can't do this? We can't extend him period (if so, why?), or can't still extend him for as cheap? Your implication we "needed" to do this now isn't giving me the warm fuzzies within the bigger picture it's playing out in.

$8m/per isn't some irrelevant cost of doing business expense for us these days if/when it happens to bust out latter.
 
WheresDewey

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Watching Rafaela play has been one of the highlights so far this year. Sure, it's small sample size over-exuberance, but this makes me happy.
 
Cassvt2023

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I love this deal and I love it more now that the terms are out. It shows that the team is valuing the players that they develop, it’s good for clubhouse morale and it reflects hat there won’t be the revolving door of faceless guys that became commonplace during the Bloom years. I believe the fact Breslow played the game and is familiar with Boston is playing into this. In addition, they are putting a premium on defense, athleticism, and putting a product on the field that is fun to watch. I’m hopeful the bat will improve enough to play at the mlb level, and I believe it will.
 
chrisfont9

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DennyDoyle'sBoil said:
Well, the 8 year deal really makes for kind of weird CBA consequences.

I love the idea of spending up to the cap this year to take away spending in future years. But $6 million a year in the next few years when his salary and tax hit would have been much lower is a bit of a drag. It's not that much money. But tacking on an additional $5.x million next year on top of the money that we have to pay Giolito for possibly missing some of the year is not great if the team is going to be under another budget constraint next year.
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The Sox have like $24m falling off the books after this year due to the Sale and Turner contracts. They are at $106m total for 2025 per Spotrac.
https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/boston-red-sox/yearly/payroll/
 
P'tucket rhymes with...

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DennyDoyle'sBoil said:
Well, the 8 year deal really makes for kind of weird CBA consequences.

I love the idea of spending up to the cap this year to take away spending in future years. But $6 million a year in the next few years when his salary and tax hit would have been much lower is a bit of a drag. It's not that much money. But tacking on an additional $5.x million next year on top of the money that we have to pay Giolito for possibly missing some of the year is not great if the team is going to be under another budget constraint next year.
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You don't let a short-term sunk cost like Giolito get in the way of a deal like this. As others have mentioned, he doesn't have to hit much for the contract to be a steal, particularly if you factor in salary inflation over the next several years.
 
DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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MikeM said:
What do you mean you can't do this? We can't extend him period (if so, why?), or can't still extend him for as cheap? Your implication we "needed" to do this now isn't giving me the warm fuzzies within the bigger picture it's playing out in.

$8m/per isn't some irrelevant cost of doing business expense for us these days if/when it happens to bust out latter.
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If 8mm per annum is too big of a risk for the Boston Red Sox, we all need a new team.

The greatest trick sports owners ever pulled was getting fans to worry about the stakeholders bottom lines.
 
simplicio

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chrisfont9 said:
The Sox have like $24m falling off the books after this year due to the Sale and Turner contracts. They are at $106m total for 2025 per Spotrac.
https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/boston-red-sox/yearly/payroll/
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P'tucket rhymes with... said:
You don't let a short-term sunk cost like Giolito get in the way of a deal like this. As others have mentioned, he doesn't have to hit much for the contract to be a steal, particularly if you factor in salary inflation over the next several years.
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The Spotrac numbers don't look quite right to me. They have Bello at $2.6 million for 2025. Isn't it $9?

I think with this signing, the CBT number for 2025 should be somewhere around $150 million, not including the arb players. Which is really good and leaves them lots of room, but I don't want them to get caught in the switches. I love the deal in the abstract and moving up money for future years is great, unless ownership is putting a hard cap on future years. If they are then I kind of think I would rather have players who are cost controlled and use the money somewhere else.
 
6-5 Sadler

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The deal seems ok but you would hope for more of a discount (or option years for years 7 and 8) this early in his career and with the obvious offensive warts. He has a high floor given his defense/versatility so it’s unlikely the contract becomes a disaster but just doesn’t feel like there is a lot of surplus value here unless his bat takes a couple of steps forward.

Before this was announced, I was going to suggest Rafaela was a candidate to be sent down once Refsnyder was healthy. His underlying offensive metrics have actually gotten worse this year (SSS obviously). Chase rate up, contact rate better but it’s weaker contact…it’s early but so far not a lot of signs his approach has improved.
 
chrisfont9

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DennyDoyle'sBoil said:
The Spotrac numbers don't look quite right to me. They have Bello at $2.6 million for 2025. Isn't it $9?

I think with this signing, the CBT number for 2025 should be somewhere around $150 million, not including the arb players. Which is really good and leaves them lots of room, but I don't want them to get caught in the switches. I love the deal in the abstract and moving up money for future years is great, unless ownership is putting a hard cap on future years. If they are then I kind of think I would rather have players who are cost controlled and use the money somewhere else.
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Sure, and we all know $106m isn't the real number. But they will be gaining a big chunk back, and I've brought up the possibility before that their reluctance to pay Monty might be because of several planned extensions.

You're right about Bello's LT number, or at least Spotrac acknowledges that his LT number and actual salary may not match. The deal is backloaded but SPT has his LT number averaged out over the life of the contract.
https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/boston-red-sox/brayan-bello-74775/
 
Lose Remerswaal

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MikeM said:
What do you mean you can't do this? We can't extend him period (if so, why?), or can't still extend him for as cheap? Your implication we "needed" to do this now isn't giving me the warm fuzzies within the bigger picture it's playing out in.

$8m/per isn't some irrelevant cost of doing business expense for us these days if/when it happens to bust out latter.
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Yes. If he had a good season this year, it would have cost much more to extend him next year. I’m going to trust the brains there that think this guy is worth extending now
 
MikeM

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DeJesus Built My Hotrod said:
If 8mm per annum is too big of a risk for the Boston Red Sox, we all need a new team.

The greatest trick sports owners ever pulled was getting fans to worry about the stakeholders bottom lines.
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I am kinda on the same page with you on that stuff at this point.

Like i said I just find this super early reach curious coming off the winter of budget speculation we just saw play out. Almost like it's Breslow being overly aggressive on that front for the type of reasons that don't give me the warm fuzzies to think out. At least as somebody who as always seen not having to sweat the min/max values within contract payouts as being one of the larger advantages the bigger revenue teams can have over the smaller ones.

Or maybe and unlike me they really do believe he's actually a slam dunk to hit at the MLB level this year.
 
DennyDoyle'sBoil

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chrisfont9 said:
Sure, and we all know $106m isn't the real number. But they will be gaining a big chunk back, and I've brought up the possibility before that their reluctance to pay Monty might be because of several planned extensions.

You're right about Bello's LT number, or at least Spotrac acknowledges that his LT number and actual salary may not match. The deal is backloaded but SPT has his LT number averaged out over the life of the contract.
https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/boston-red-sox/brayan-bello-74775/
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Thanks. That all makes sense.

I think the thing that is hard here is that the team is not exactly being transparent about the "budget." It seems clear that they have one. But it's not clear what it is or whether it's a 2024 thing or a future year thing, or whether they are playing it by ear.

We are all kind of trained to judge moves in the NFL a certain way because there is a hard cap. We would know how to look at an extension. We've never really had to look at baseball that way. Here, we just don't know. If the CBT is going to be a de facto limit on the Red Sox in 2025 and 2026 then I look at this extension with a little less enthusiasm. If not I think it's great.
 
Cassvt2023

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6-5 Sadler said:
The deal seems ok but you would hope for more of a discount (or option years for years 7 and 8) this early in his career and with the obvious offensive warts. He has a high floor given his defense/versatility so it’s unlikely the contract becomes a disaster but just doesn’t feel like there is a lot of surplus value here unless his bat takes a couple of steps forward.

Before this was announced, I was going to suggest Rafaela was a candidate to be sent down once Refsnyder was healthy. His underlying offensive metrics have actually gotten worse this year (SSS obviously). Chase rate up, contact rate better but it’s weaker contact…it’s early but so far not a lot of signs his approach has improved.
Click to expand...
suggesting Rafaela be sent down once Refsnyder is ready is one of the craziest things I’ve ever read on SOSH. You must hate this team, hate baseball, or be related to Rob Refsnyder. Unbelievable. Have you actually watched him play?
 
joe dokes

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People throw around the term "bargain" as though its the midpoint between "worst move in history," and "we fleeced 'em." It's like when people expect every trade to be "only we get the good players."
This seems like a good deal for everyone. Risk on both sides. That's the middle.
In a cash limitless universe, they'd wait til they (and everyone) were *sure* they'd be good and then pay the premium for waiting.
 
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