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  1. Sam Ray Not

    Best NBA players of the last six years per 538’s latest acronym

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-best-nba-players-of-the-last-6-seasons/ Smarter guys than me can parse the details of the “RAPTOR” methodology, but at a quick glance, the basic premise that adjusted plus-minus stats get better in the biggest possible samples (in this case, the six...
  2. Sam Ray Not

    DRAYMOND, or 538's newest defensive metric

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-better-way-to-evaluate-nba-defense/ Unsurprisingly, the highest-rated defender over the past five seasons according to DRAYMOND is Draymond Green. Last season it was Derrick Favors. Lowest-rated defender over the last five seasons according to DRAYMOND...
  3. Sam Ray Not

    Probability and Baseball: 90% of this is true, the other half is false

    The Ringer's pre-season top six teams, and their current games behind the Red Sox: 1. HOU -11.5 2. NYY -9.5 3. LAD -20.5 4. CLE -17.5 5. WAS -23.5 6. CHI -16
  4. Sam Ray Not

    Race to the Bottom: Birds vs. Royals

    So my O's fan friend has a big "shoot the moon" bet with his Royals fan friend. Since he told me about it, both teams have been tanking like absolute champs: both 1-9 in their last ten. Pythag dislikes the Royals quite a bit more, but the O's are a game worse, with a real chance to be 40 games...
  5. Sam Ray Not

    GS-Busters: who's the 2nd-best team in the NBA?

    With the final Melo and DWade shoes dropped, now seems like a pretty good time for this. Based on comments I've read here, I expect a pretty wide range of answers, with OKC, SAS, HOU, and CLE now crazily bunched up, and MIN and BOS not far off. I'm honestly not sure who I'd say, but I'm kinda...
  6. Sam Ray Not

    2014 MVP griping

    Joakim Noah over Stephen Curry?   Can someone give me a decent argument for that beyond “the Bulls have a cool brand and Chicago is a big media market in the East(-ish)"?   Curry had a much more positive effect (+14.7 pts per 100 possessions to +7.2) on a significantly better team (by Pythag...