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  1. slamminsammya

    Joe Mazzulla officially named head coach

    You ever met someone who was affable one on one but had trouble with public speaking?
  2. slamminsammya

    Joe Mazzulla officially named head coach

    Meaningless?
  3. slamminsammya

    Celtics vs Heat ECF Redux Discussion Thread

    I was actually a model UN kid thank you very much.
  4. slamminsammya

    Celtics vs Heat ECF Redux Discussion Thread

    Thanks for pulling rank, shall we trade cv's? :) As you probably heard in grad school, all models are wrong, some are useful. Obviously shots are not literally random. Settled. The original conversation is about when / how a coach or observer would update their prior estimate of their teams...
  5. slamminsammya

    Celtics vs Heat ECF Redux Discussion Thread

    Something something Bayes versus frequentist
  6. slamminsammya

    Celtics vs Heat ECF Redux Discussion Thread

    OK, I will stop addressing this if your feeling is I "dont get this and don't want to".
  7. slamminsammya

    Celtics vs Heat ECF Redux Discussion Thread

    Continue this logic and you will model every shot as having "true" shooting percentage as either 0 or 1. Do you see a problem?
  8. slamminsammya

    Joe Mazzulla officially named head coach

    It is also worth pointing out the team was still 3rd in defensive efficiency in the league. The league offensive rating went up 3 points this year over last which is a crazy big jump.
  9. slamminsammya

    Celtics vs Heat ECF Redux Discussion Thread

    The Heat made the finals this year and in 2020 riding insanely hot 3 point shooting. The dynasty of the 2010s was the Warriors, who, ya know. The other team in the finals right now jacks up a very large number of 3s. Are we sure defense and turnovers is a "safer" strategy?
  10. slamminsammya

    Celtics vs Heat ECF Redux Discussion Thread

    "silly, and dangerous" - the logic you are using here can literally be applied to a coin flip. At a certain level of analysis, a coin flip is deterministic, you just don't have enough information to predict correctly. Can't this logic - that the coach does not have insight into what might be...
  11. slamminsammya

    Jaylen Brown, Year 7

    I think it was game 5 they really started running and after that i thought I saw miami really busting their asses back. It takes two to tango in creating transition opportunities.
  12. slamminsammya

    Jaylen Brown, Year 7

    Thanks, very interesting metric. More like a pnr ball mishandler
  13. slamminsammya

    Celtics vs Heat ECF Redux Discussion Thread

    This sounds like straightforward over fitting. Is there any a prior reason why shooting percentage should be a function of a series? Why not say every individual shot has its own true likelihood of going in?
  14. slamminsammya

    Celtics vs Heat ECF Redux Discussion Thread

    Ive brought this up before but I highly recommend folks to read about aleatoric versus epistemic uncertainty. Explanatory article here: https://www.stat.berkeley.edu/~aldous/157/Papers/Fox_Ulkumen.pdf The distinction is between inherently random systems (aleatoric uncertainty) versus systems...
  15. slamminsammya

    Celtics vs Heat ECF Redux Discussion Thread

    You'd want to correct for shot location, the person shooting, shot clock, and closest defender.
  16. slamminsammya

    Celtics vs Heat ECF Redux Discussion Thread

    Within a single game there's a lot of evidence that observed shooting percentage drops fairly quickly compared to expected (based on the player, shot type, closest defender, location) as you get to around the 15th shot of the game for that player. Which is a pretty good proxy for fatigue. Or...
  17. slamminsammya

    Celtics vs Heat ECF Redux Discussion Thread

    Addressed these and I agree. The eye test matters for those components. But in this case they don't to me explain the shooting collapse. And it must also be said there are definitely negative effects to an offense from passing up open shots you'd normally take which is something coaches mention...
  18. slamminsammya

    Celtics vs Heat ECF Redux Discussion Thread

    I oversimplified. Of course there are things that will cause full season percentages to be less predictive. Injury, fatigue are the obvious ones and well documented. Tatum missing threes after rolling his ankle? Brogdon airballing with a torn tending in his shooting hand? Yeah, probably stop...
  19. slamminsammya

    Celtics vs Heat ECF Redux Discussion Thread

    The assumption is at a certain point in a game the 3s not falling within the game becomes more predictive of future 3s in the same game than the full season sample. Which is false.
  20. slamminsammya

    Jaylen Brown, Year 7

    The zone looked good purely because we shot like doo doo from 3 all series. They got great looks against it I thought and the one game where they actually shot decently they put up 1.4 points per possession against the zone.
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