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  1. effectivelywild

    When Is It Okay To Worry About Triston Casas: An Attempt at the Reverse Jinx

    So, SSS caveats and all, that is a swing rate of 4/15 (26.7%) on full counts, yes? That seems pretty low, which likely plays into any impression that he is "looking to walk". I tried (and failed) to find the league overall swing rate in a full count---I did find out in this article that in...
  2. effectivelywild

    Spring Training 2023 Thread

    You also have to wait for awhile before you can trade a guy that you signed in the offseason. I think the earliest you can do it is....sometime in June?
  3. effectivelywild

    Red Sox sign Masataka Yoshida

    Personally, I prefer fHAR for pitchers and bHAR for position players. I like fHAR for pitchers because it uses FIP (follicle-independent plumage) which I think is more predictive of the player's true hair talent level and is more sticky year to year. For hitters though, I find that fHAR puts a...
  4. effectivelywild

    2023 Starting Rotation

    A recent article in The Athletic said that is more or less the reason. A quote from Sale in the article: "“Opening Day is always a very special day,” Sale told The Athletic Monday. “It’s like Christmas for baseball players, but the last few I’ve been a part of, I wasn’t playing, so it was like...
  5. effectivelywild

    Spring Training 2023 Thread

    I blame Minneapolis Millers. Destroyed the positive winning vibes.
  6. effectivelywild

    Spring Training 2023 Thread

    I also started to wonder if, rather than use a "playoffs or not" end point it might be worth looking into if the teams that had great preseasons beat their projected win total for the season, as maybe "overperformance relative to expectations" might correlate better with preseason wins vs...
  7. effectivelywild

    Matt Barnes DFA'd, traded to Marlins for LH reliever Bleier

    I did some similar looking at Cleveland's relief corp last year. It's true they had a bunch of great relievers on pre-arb contracts---6 of their top 7 were on pre-arb contracts and the only one that isn't (Emmanuel Clase)----signed a 5 year contract after after a little more than one year of...
  8. effectivelywild

    Beat The Clock

    I read at least one pitcher (maybe Scherzer) opine that with runners on there will be an incentive for the pitcher to not take the full time because of the huge edge a runner could get if the clock was at 2 seconds and the pitcher hadn't started yet. He also said that he felt like the clock gave...
  9. effectivelywild

    Spring Training 2023 Thread

    Seems like a possible advertising opportunity for Papa John's, the official pizza of MLB.
  10. effectivelywild

    Spring Training 2023 Thread

    So would it be safe to say the bases are in the best shape of their lives?
  11. effectivelywild

    2023 Offseason Moves

    Just trying to be polite in the event that we get Mitch Haniger later.
  12. effectivelywild

    2023 Offseason Moves

    Just to clarify, we're not talking about an off-brand jock-itch treatment then?
  13. effectivelywild

    Sox trade Franklin German to White Sox for Theo Denlinger RHP: Tatanka Time!

    Mondesi has always been a multi-tool player but has struggled to produce. Thus, it is the job of Cora and the rest of the coaching staff to help mold and define those tools. In this situation, they are figuratively blacksmiths.
  14. effectivelywild

    Sox Sign OF Adam Duvall to 1 year deal

    FWIW, I did some analysis using regression analysis for every season for the past 10 years and of all of the stats, RBIs was the one that correlated the best with runs scored for every single season. I bet this would still hold true even if I went further back. <before anyone points out the...
  15. effectivelywild

    Red Sox sign Justin Turner

    This is only tangentially relevant and obviously putting a lot of weight into a "like" on social media but I have to imagine that Turner asked Betts about Boston and it might throw a bit of cold water on the "Betts always wanted to leave Boston" contingent.
  16. effectivelywild

    Which Batter is More Productive?

    Fangraphs recently had an article that sort of looked at this issue in a different way----looking at how the triple slash numbers (AVG/OBP/SLG) correlated to runs scored, either individually or in combination, across various "eras" of baseball. To quickly summarize, looking at all three...
  17. effectivelywild

    Matt Barnes DFA'd, traded to Marlins for LH reliever Bleier

    I know what you mean. When watching the actual games there is little solace from seeing a bad result and saying "oh but it was just bad luck!". When a hitter comes up in a close and late situation with 2 outs and runners on second and third it's....hard to get excited about a line drive that...
  18. effectivelywild

    Matt Barnes DFA'd, traded to Marlins for LH reliever Bleier

    Yeah, with relievers you can't cherrypick just the "good" outings: taking out Barnes 5 worst outings where he gave up 11 runs in 3.1 innings makes him look elite. If I had to put money down, I'd say that I bet Brasier's a better pitcher (let's say by xFIP) than Barnes next year, but,,,I wouldn't...
  19. effectivelywild

    Matt Barnes DFA'd, traded to Marlins for LH reliever Bleier

    One thing I did notice on a few of these---number 1 was a pure meatball, number 2 was a curve that got too much of the plate and number 4 was similar, with Brasier also completely missing his location---is that even these were flukey looking hits, he was throwing his fastball in some eminently...