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  1. rotundlio

    Alex Cora's first season

    Cora pushing all the bellybuttons: …
  2. rotundlio

    BOS bullpen 2018

    Hembree ain't going anywhere, and I'm annoyed at the implication. American League average reliever: 23.5% K rate, 9.4% walk rate 11.5% whiff rate, 30.3% chase rate 4.21 xFIP, 3.90 SIERA Heath Hembree since 2017: 26% K rate, 6.4% walk rate 14.1% whiff rate, 34.9% chase rate 3.78 xFIP, 3.33 SIERA
  3. rotundlio

    Could we be in for a Record Season?

    Everyone is citing precedent with the Brewers and the Tigers and the '78 Red Sox and whomever else, and they're saying things like, if this hot streak had happened in July, it'd be no great shakes. But the former is meaningless and the latter is silly. The Brewers and the Tigers and the '78 Red...
  4. rotundlio

    Team defense

    This team led the league in defensive runs saved and composite defense last season. They were only league-average in terms of "error runs," though.
  5. rotundlio

    Alex Cora's first season

    Expected runs with bases loaded, two out in 2017: 0.73 runs Sandy Leon career BB% vs. RHP: 7.6% 1B%: 15.3% XBH%: 4.2% HR%: 1.5% Out%: 70.1% (.076 ⋅ 1) + (.153 ⋅ 2) + (.042 ⋅ 3) + (.015 ⋅ 4) ≈ 0.57 expected runs Rafael Devers career BB% vs. RHP: 6.2% 1B%: 13.5% XBH%: 5.7% HR%: 4.1% Out%: 70.5%...
  6. rotundlio

    Alex Cora's first season

    According to this FanGraphs article, pitchers are the best bunters. I don't think JBJ really has an excuse.
  7. rotundlio

    The Killer B's in 2018: What's in the Box?

    Point well taken, but I'm not sure what I'm looking at here: The difference between Fenway (90 park factor for LH power) and the Bidet (114) seems to be around four or five homers to the pull side, which is right in line with the numbers. It looks to me like he hits a ton of balls the other...
  8. rotundlio

    The Killer B's in 2018: What's in the Box?

    You've mentioned Benintendi's home/road left/right splits a few times, and while they are vast, they were also powered by a .170 BABIP against lefties in Boston. On the road: .405 with a 144 wRC+. His K/BB ratio is better against southpaws wherever. I don't want people to get the idea that...
  9. rotundlio

    The 2018 Lineup

    Either we agree that the three-hole is less important than the two- and the four-, or we don't, but there's no use in continuing to beat it to death. I would happily trade those two runs for a peaceful resolution to this debate.
  10. rotundlio

    The 2018 Lineup

    You're dismissing my point out of hand, so I think we're getting close. Here is that same list of full-time #2, #3, #4, and #5 hitters sorted by their FanGraphs "leverage index" in 2017. I highlighted the #3 hitters in red. Here is that same data for 2016. I can continue to conjure up...
  11. rotundlio

    The 2018 Lineup

    Let's go back to the run expectancy chart. Nobody on, two outs: 0.11 expected runs Batter singles: 0.23 expected runs Batter doubles: 0.33 expected runs Batter homers: 1.11 expected runs Nobody on, nobody out: 0.52 expected runs Batter singles: 0.89 expected runs Batter doubles: 1.11 expected...
  12. rotundlio

    The 2018 Lineup

    Assuming that the idea of the "Ruthian" three-hole hitter is based on the belief that a) you want him to come to the plate in the first inning, and that b) you want ducks on the pond when he does… then yeah, that's a fallacy. There may be some other logic that I'm not grasping, but there is also...
  13. rotundlio

    The 2018 Lineup

    I believe this would be by The Book. Yes! But there is an important caveat. The #3 hitter is uniquely positioned so as to accumulate bases empty, two-out plate appearances. Approximately 40% of the time he will come to the plate in the first inning — the only scripted portion of the ballgame —...
  14. rotundlio

    The 2018 Lineup

    You didn't address what I thought was his most salient point: Even successful teams won't always operate by the book… or indeed, The Book. These things are resistant to change. The "closer" is the most egregious inefficiency you'll ever find (one that our skipper hopes to exploit), but...
  15. rotundlio

    The 2018 Lineup

    The #3 hitter is guaranteed around 60–70 plate appearances with nobody on and two out. That is the only reason to prioritize #2 and #4... but it's a good reason.
  16. rotundlio

    Red Sox re-sign Mitch Moreland for 2 years, 13 M

    Moreland's average exit velocity was 89 miles per hour, which is in the 86th percentile. His flyballs and line drives were 95 miles per hour, on average, in the 88th percentile. His average home run traveled 411 feet — 90th percentile — a few inches ahead of Mike Trout and one foot behind Aaron...
  17. rotundlio

    Wild Card Game Thread -- Non Pro-MFY Version

    Broadcasters 1000% less somber talking about Vegas
  18. rotundlio

    Chris Sale to Boston for Moncada, Kopech, & 2 Prospects

    Sale's edit: 21 swings and misses are the most by a Red Sox in 10 years. It's his 21ˢᵗ game with 12 Ks since '12, eight more than any other player (Kershaw). Additionally, I like him. I'm gonna go DO'B jinx and point out that in 17 thousand pitches the only arm injury he's incurred is a flexor...
  19. rotundlio

    Catching Controversy

    León isn't even arb-eligible until after next season, either. Amazing. (Edit: Mea culpa. Looks like he's Super Two?) I figured there may be a GM out there willing to surrender an impact piece, but then I figured he'd ridden the pine in Washington for longer. Win enough World Series and...
  20. rotundlio

    The 2017 Lineup

    Tops in contact rate, preeetty much first in walk-to-K ratio, second in hard-hit, top-six in liners, dead last in homerun-to-flyball ratio in April and second in popups. –1.7 runs cluster luck. Pablo cannot carry us forever