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  1. nvalvo

    Roki Sasaki to be posted this winter

    Tony Gonsolin had one great season and has two years left. Dustin May has looked very good in small samples, but hasn't been healthy much. And then there's the unfortunate Urias saga, but I guess he slightly predates Bueller. I don't think any of that really contradicts your point. It is a...
  2. nvalvo

    The Conductor: who should Breslow haul to Boston this winter?

    Why? Here are two AAA stints, one from Campbell in Worcester in 2024 and the other from Grissom in Gwinnett in 2023. Can tell without checking whose is whose? Age 22: .333/.419/.501, 1.12 K/BB ratio | Age 22: .286/.412/.486, 1.38 K/BB ratio | The Kristian Campbell story is the crown jewel...
  3. nvalvo

    The Conductor: who should Breslow haul to Boston this winter?

    I think that when your team is likely to be mediocre is a really good time to place a bet on a Christian Arroyo type, a former back-of-the-top-100 prospect derailed by injuries. If it doesn't work, you've lost little: all you've committed is the PAs in a rebuilding year. If it does, you've got a...
  4. nvalvo

    Red Sox agree to terms with Garrett Crochet, Tanner Houck, and Kutter Crawford for 2025 (and Jarren Duran with a 2026 club option --1/17 update)

    This is actually a pretty player-friendly compromise, right? He asked for $4m in arbitration, which he basically gets ($3.75 + $100k buyout/assignment bonus if traded + $150k in PA bonuses that he will easily clear barring catastrophe = $4m). But the Sox get a structure that caps his second arb...
  5. nvalvo

    The Conductor: who should Breslow haul to Boston this winter?

    Okay, fair, but that’s not really an argument that a 1B who should be a DH has a role on this team as constructed. I guess this could make sense if the commitment is small enough, especially if Yoshida isn’t expected to be healthy from the jump.
  6. nvalvo

    The Conductor: who should Breslow haul to Boston this winter?

    Honest question: is current-day Pete Alonso better *against lefties* than Romy Gonzalez? Gonzalez had a better OPS in that split at .879 than Alonso has had since 2021. But I’m not really sure how to find park adjustments on platoon splits, which seems important to the comparison. In any case...
  7. nvalvo

    The Conductor: who should Breslow haul to Boston this winter?

    Bergman’s “not considering short term deals” T-shirt is raising a lot of questions already answered by the shirt. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/01/alex-bregman-rumors-no-short-term-deal.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=bluesky
  8. nvalvo

    The Catcher Conundrum

    Of course if they had listened to you in time for Montgomery to have a regular spring training ramp up, that might not have been such a terrible thing.
  9. nvalvo

    Sox to pursue early extensions with the big 3

    Jackson Holliday seems poised to be the next Pedroia anecdote about a very good player having a very slow start.
  10. nvalvo

    Is There Something I Should Know? How good will Jarren Duran be going forward?

    The comp for Duran that I think about will sound like I’m slamming him, but I promise I’m not. It’s Andres Torres. Torres was a toolsy outfielder who came up at 24 and was eminently mediocre on both sides of the ball for a few years for the Tigers and Rangers. He got nontendered and bounced...
  11. nvalvo

    Sox to pursue early extensions with the big 3

    Baseball Savant has AAA data in a sort of interfaceless way. His AAA PA that ended in breaking pitches, if I did the math right, resulted in a .313/.388/.545 line. 14/44 with 5 walks, 14 strikeouts, and 5 XBH. That's a great line, but it's a high K rate and it is worse than overall AAA line.
  12. nvalvo

    Sox to pursue early extensions with the big 3

    I think that’s the point of the Wilyer Abreus and Kutter Crawfords. Affordable production. I don’t think that’s the right way to think about a Roman Anthony. His ceiling is just higher than all but the best FAs. Should we not extend Roman Anthony through his prime so we can sign Alex Bergman...
  13. nvalvo

    Sox to pursue early extensions with the big 3

    I don't know that I agree that it massively lessens the risk. It changes the profile of that risk, sure, but certain kinds of risks don't decline and the numbers involved in the contracts get way bigger. If we sign a 21 year old Roman Anthony to an 8/$120m contract with a $30m club option/$5m...
  14. nvalvo

    Is this a playoff team?

    Thanks for the measured response. A few notes, and then I'll leave this be. 1. Refsnyder: This is puzzling to me. Refsnyder didn't have his best year last year, and over the last three combined seasons he's been a more productive hitter versus lefties (at .316/.410/.500) than JD Martinez, Teo...
  15. nvalvo

    Is this a playoff team?

    I'll bite. 1. They don't have a right handed power hitter. The guy that they did have left and wasn't replaced. Rob Refsnyder exists. 2022-2024: 177, 134, 160 wRC+ vs LHP. They also have a RHH in AAA (Kristian Campbell) who hit at least one ball harder than Tyler O'Neill has in his entire...
  16. nvalvo

    Trade vets for OPP?

    Why are we trading Story? The team's two biggest needs are infield defense, which he provides, and RH power (.501 career SLG), which he has provided amply in the past, if less so recently. He's not overly expensive; he's not under contract for some eternity — 3/$70m. His availability is...
  17. nvalvo

    Red Sox hook Crochet for Kyle Teel, Braden Montgomery, Chase Meidroth and Wikelman Gonzalez

    Crochet should want either a 5 year extension (and to reach FA at 30 after already making 9 figures) or a gigantic 10+ year deal that covers his entire career. The Red Sox should want to buy his entire prime without committing to his mid-30s, so 7-8 years of control (whatever the structure)...
  18. nvalvo

    Red Sox hook Crochet for Kyle Teel, Braden Montgomery, Chase Meidroth and Wikelman Gonzalez

    That also fits the timeline of when we pivoted to acquire him. So maybe as the FA pitching prices climbed, Crochet’s extension price tag started looking worth the price in prospects.
  19. nvalvo

    Red Sox hook Crochet for Kyle Teel, Braden Montgomery, Chase Meidroth and Wikelman Gonzalez

    It's really short sighted to try to exploit that too much, IMO. I would rather they use that leverage to get their desired term than try to milk the AAV discount too much. I think we want his early 30s.
  20. nvalvo

    Red Sox hook Crochet for Kyle Teel, Braden Montgomery, Chase Meidroth and Wikelman Gonzalez

    I would give Crochet Fried's contract and laugh all the way to the bank. He's five years younger and comparably talented. Paying that money for ages 26-33 instead of 31-38 is just wildly more desirable. The point of trading for a young ace isn't to save money, it's to spend the money on players...
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