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  1. mikcou

    Let's Lay Off That Throttle

    Its a bit hard to believe ticket sales are only off 5%. Tickets for Fenway opening day are still available. I cant remember a time when tickets for Fenway; 's opening day were still available when the season started. They used to sell out in December. Edit: I suppose it could be gross $ volume...
  2. mikcou

    Let's Lay Off That Throttle

    Its only disproving that its not true for everyone. We know from the numerous deals over the last 20+ years that normally the top bid gets the player. The fact that some players do not does not invalidate a general tendency. I dont think anyone has ever said that EVERYONE WILL TAKE THE TOP DEAL...
  3. mikcou

    FanGraphs Positional Power Rankings by Team - Shortstop

    Yes, I was responding to a post that thought SS defensive being 7th in MLB seemed too low. Seems pretty much right on the mark to me.
  4. mikcou

    FanGraphs Positional Power Rankings by Team - Shortstop

    I dont see these as inconsistent at all? A consistent top 10 defensive shortstop is almost certainly going to trend around the top 50 defensive players in baseball. I didnt say he was bad; hes very clear a good defensive shortstop. I dont understand the confusion as to why a ranking in between...
  5. mikcou

    FanGraphs Positional Power Rankings by Team - Shortstop

    I agree that he was very good at short in 2023 based on the eye test(which was validated by metrics as well), but it was like 40 games . Performance isn't even though; just like players have better and worse hitting streaks, the same thing happens in the field. Until he consistently plays like...
  6. mikcou

    FanGraphs Positional Power Rankings by Team - Shortstop

    This seems about right. I think a lot of people got really riled up by a really small sample last August and September; Story has never really consistently been an elite defensive shortstop. He played five full seasons in Colorado and the COVID shortened season and only in 2019 did he have...
  7. mikcou

    Macksonville: Mac Traded to Jaguars

    Yes, you are right about the rule of 51 during the transition period/FA. Ultimately they need to get all liabilities for all players under the cap and be compliant for the regular season. For that purpose, it is $2.8M. The rule of 51 is just an acknowledgement that during the FA and training...
  8. mikcou

    Macksonville: Mac Traded to Jaguars

    What bonus acceleration are you speaking of? He had a four year deal so it’s just the last year of the amortization; nothing is brought forward that wasn’t already on the 2024 cap. They save like $2.8M from the salary.
  9. mikcou

    Brayan Bello signed to a 6 year, $55 million extension

    Longoria’s comparable deal was signed in 2008, which was a max 9/44. That initial deal was an excellent deal; now why they decided to an extension so early on was always the question.
  10. mikcou

    Offseason rumors

    NBA stars are just not good comparisons for off the court reasons as well. Guys like Lebron are making more in marketing/merchandising deals than they are playing basketball. The only somewhat comparable person in MLB is probably Ohtani. Max Fried isn’t getting $25M, $30, $40M a year marketing...
  11. mikcou

    Offseason rumors

    This is a better analysis. The initial reaction was the point about Giolito and Fried being friends. If can’t recall any MLB player ever taking less money to play with a friend; if you have an example of a good player doing so, I’d love to hear it. If the Sox want Fried they are going to have...
  12. mikcou

    Offseason rumors

    Yeah max contracts have a ton to do with this. Lebron can only make X; same with Wade and Bosh. At that point it becomes picking where you’re playing and who you’re playing with. MLB teams can pay guys whatever; it’s a completely different set up with completely different incentives.
  13. mikcou

    Offseason rumors

    All available evidence has the Sox being profitable on a FCF/OM basis even without the financials of NESN included. Could it be wrong? I guess so, but there really isnt any evidence that that is the case. Given the lack of inclusion of NESN, its likely public estimates are conservative if...
  14. mikcou

    Offseason rumors

    Over half the league made under $1M last year. The financial considerations that segment of the player population have and what Blake Snell ($16M last year)/Jordan Montgomery ($10M last year) have don’t really overlap.
  15. mikcou

    Offseason rumors

    50/50. 2:1 is 1 out of 3. Books charge a vig so an even bet means the book thinks the odds are actually a bit higher than 50%.
  16. mikcou

    Let's Lay Off That Throttle

    I didnt say anything about playoff odds; only that Vegas is taking into account the possibilities that teams will add or subtract before the season starts. As to playoff odds, 5% seems low; FG 25% seems high absent a significant move being made. I suspect if we get to opening day and the sox...
  17. mikcou

    Offseason rumors

    Who is crying? Its fine for the owners to run them as businesses; they should. We shouldn't pretend otherwise and we shouldnt pretend or argue that they havent made outsized returns over the past 15-20 years. Edit: Its pretty fair to criticize owners for crying poor and looking for public...
  18. mikcou

    Let's Lay Off That Throttle

    Depends on what you mean by betting? They are clearly pricing some chance that the Sox will pick up another piece into their totals. Whether thats a 60% chance or 20% chance, I dont know, but its definitely there.
  19. mikcou

    Offseason rumors

    You're missing the main returns from owning a team if you're only looking at OP margin. The main returns are increase in asset values, which is of course why very few teams are owned by public companies (i.e., only the Braves) and everyone else is owned by individuals or funds that ultimately...
  20. mikcou

    Let's Lay Off That Throttle

    Obviously as price goes down, teams will become more interested. No one was interested in him on a superstar or even a tier below that deal. He signed a deal towards the high end of the mid market from the one team willing to go there. $125M - $140M is a pretty small amount for a guy who put...