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  1. 6-5 Sadler

    To err is human; three errors is the Red Sox: the defense thread.

    I wouldn’t completely absolve the catchers in this discussion. Although not really boneheaded plays, the Sox lead the league in wild pitches + passed balls. I suspect some of that could be the increased offspeed pitch usage (and SSS obviously) but Wong has never been great at blocking pitches...
  2. 6-5 Sadler

    Red Sox, Ceddanne Rafaela agree to contract extension

    @Fishy1 did a nice job looking at walk rates so I figured I would try a similar exercise with chase rate. I think the walk rate is a problem but I view it more as a symptom and not necessarily a cause. I looked at hitters aged 23 and younger who had at least 100 plate appearances over the past...
  3. 6-5 Sadler

    Red Sox, Ceddanne Rafaela agree to contract extension

    With the exception of Tovar (and the jury is still out on his bat), the difference between those players and Rafaela is that they all have at least average power. Rafaela’s max exit velocity at this point in his career is poor (ranked 4th lowest of 197 qualified hitters this year). He’ll get...
  4. 6-5 Sadler

    Red Sox, Ceddanne Rafaela agree to contract extension

    Be careful…I suggested this a few days ago and someone called it “one of the craziest things ever posted on SOSH.” But you're probably right. The off-season was the time to build depth to allow Rafaela time in Worcester and the team chose not to do that.
  5. 6-5 Sadler

    Red Sox, Ceddanne Rafaela agree to contract extension

    And this is coming from me…a guy who wanted ship Refsnyder out of town all offseason! It’s really a combination of Rafaela’s offensive performance and roster fit. Despite excellent defense, Rafaela has been one of the worst hitters in the league in the early going. As I said, his underlying...
  6. 6-5 Sadler

    Red Sox, Ceddanne Rafaela agree to contract extension

    The deal seems ok but you would hope for more of a discount (or option years for years 7 and 8) this early in his career and with the obvious offensive warts. He has a high floor given his defense/versatility so it’s unlikely the contract becomes a disaster but just doesn’t feel like there is a...
  7. 6-5 Sadler

    The Frailty of the Modern Pitcher

    Here you go… View: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gQujXQQGOVNaiuwSN680Hq-FDVsCwvN-3AazykOBON0/edit
  8. 6-5 Sadler

    4.2 - A’s Kickin’

    Bullpen was lights out…great win!
  9. 6-5 Sadler

    4.2 - A’s Kickin’

    Same. I really like Jenny Cavnar on the play by play. Not sure who the color guy is but he’s growing on me as well. He even offered a mea culpa when he learned Duran’s “still alive” slogan was a reference to mental health and not his two strike approach.
  10. 6-5 Sadler

    4.2 - A’s Kickin’

    Watching the A’s feed and their color guy actually put that on Casas. That home cooking would make Tommy Heinsohn blush.
  11. 6-5 Sadler

    Minor League Thread 2024

    A small payback for all the fantastic stuff you post here!
  12. 6-5 Sadler

    Minor League Thread 2024

    You can do this fairly easily on Baseball Reference. Just bring up the player’s game log, and then select the dates/games you want to combine (click the first and last date and it will highlight orange). Here are Paulino’s splits: Through 5/4: .214/.258/.321 After 5/4: .265/.350/.439
  13. 6-5 Sadler

    NY spring training 2024

    Some more Gil love… Eno Sarris: Min 100 pitches, spring Stuff+ leaders (not all parks have statcast) 1) Luis Gil 139 2) Jared Jones 3) Grayson Rodriguez 4) Jorge Alcala 5) Eury Perez 6) Wes Parsons 7) Miguel Castro 8) Josh Winckowski 9) Bowden Francis 10) Casey Mize 110 View...
  14. 6-5 Sadler

    Dylan Cease traded to Padres

    Prospect list ranks for Thorpe… Athletic: not ranked BA: 58 BP: 45 FG: 73 ESPN: 64 MLB: 85 I believe the only place that had Iriarte ranked was FG at 61.
  15. 6-5 Sadler

    The Frailty of the Modern Pitcher

    Ok I’ll throw out a half baked idea. What about removing the pitching rubber entirely? At first blush you might think this is crazy (and it might be!) because that would force pitchers to use their arms more to generate velocity vs their legs. But, in theory, it would limit the maximum velocity...
  16. 6-5 Sadler

    Revised contract predictions for Snell and Montgomery

    It’s not hindsight though. Below is what I wrote at the time and others shared similar sentiments. And of course the downside risk was always catastrophic injury. I would also characterize any sub-meh performance as downside risk but I think we quickly get into a semantics exercise. For...
  17. 6-5 Sadler

    Revised contract predictions for Snell and Montgomery

    Is the Giolito contract really the best example of this? Many felt that it was a poor structure at the time as it didn’t provide the team with enough value given the downside risk. That the contract is seemingly going to be pretty disastrous is unfortunate but injury/poor performance was always...
  18. 6-5 Sadler

    Lucas Giolito has an elbow issue.

    Slight correction on this…their projections are the median projections. So you should expect 50% of the league to be above and 50% to be below. And historically I think they’ve done fairly well in hitting those percentiles. Dan Szymboski had a good tweet about it last month relating to the AL East:
  19. 6-5 Sadler

    Lucas Giolito has an elbow issue.

    @JeffPassan Brutal news: Initial imaging showed Boston Red Sox starter Lucas Giolito likely has a partially torn UCL and flexor strain and could miss the 2024 season, league sources tell ESPN. Giolito, who signed a two-year deal with Boston, may need surgery to repair the right-elbow damage.
  20. 6-5 Sadler

    2024 Team and Player Projections (Mostly Players We Have.)

    What’s the role of Valdez on the roster as currently constructed? Just curious as to how you see the playing time shaking out. I think my preference would be to go with Cron (if he shows anything as you said). Let Valdez get regular playing time in AAA to see if he can improve his defense at 2b...
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