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  1. Rwillh11

    April 7. End of the West Coast Trip.

    When I umped highschool ball, I'd occasionally make a ball/strike call and then realize it was wrong right afterwards. You can't really change your mind at that point, and I'd do my best to just forget it, but you do have it in the back of your mind.
  2. Rwillh11

    How good are Fangraphs Predictions (2023 Edition)

    I the discussion here has been somewhat uncharitable to Fangraphs. R^2 of .3 is not amazing, although as a social scientist I'm reading papers doing prediciton with lower R^2 in top academic journals all the time. More damning is the fact that it's barely doing better than a null model. But...
  3. Rwillh11

    Offseason rumors

    Given that they have nothing behind Cole and moved a bunch of pitching, why wouldn’t the Yankees be telling him the same thing?
  4. Rwillh11

    July MLB thread

    Yeah, this seems like the easiest decision in the world for the umpires. The rules are super clear on this if the umpires are sure it's intentional, and that's about as blatant as it gets.
  5. Rwillh11

    It's the halfway mark. Where we at?

    I don't think its fair to label him injury prone, you can't just look at last year (getting hit with a pitch in the wrist is the definition of a fluke injury) and this year. Prior to that, he'd played over 140 games in four straight seasons, ignoring the 2020 season for which he was also...
  6. Rwillh11

    The Future of Alex Cora in Boston

    I'm not a Cora fan, but the bullpen move wasn't really mistifying. You are trying to win the game in the 9th, and you had your best hitters coming up - no reason to save Martin for an inning that might happen. I missed the first out at home, but Reyes out at home on a contact play is solid...
  7. Rwillh11

    The Future of Alex Cora in Boston

    hindsight is 20/20 but he’d gotten two quick outs, then an intentional walk. Given that the alternative at that point was giving a guy his MLB debut, sticking with Pivetta wasn’t crazy. edit: and if the umpire doesn’t make a truly egregious call on the 2-1 pitch, we probably aren’t talking...
  8. Rwillh11

    How long will Chaim last?

    That's fair, but I'm not sure what available options were better. I think it comes down to them not thinking one of the mega deals at shortstop was a wise use of $$ given the need to rest + Mayer. Story getting hurt also made things more difficult there, but the names that people throw out as...
  9. Rwillh11

    How long will Chaim last?

    I think this is exactly right. From a process stand point, he's made a lot of moves that make sense. The results is much more of a mixed bag, but I think those of us who are more process oriented thinkers are inclined to think something like "there is always going to be a lot of...
  10. Rwillh11

    4/15 Thank You for Sending Me an Angel

    That's what I thought, with ball one being a violation?
  11. Rwillh11

    What does 2023 look like?

    See also: Oakland
  12. Rwillh11

    4/14 Heaven Is A Place Where Nothing Ever Happens

    I’ve been half paying attention with the NBA on the other screen, but strike 3 there wasn’t close
  13. Rwillh11

    2023 Starting Rotation

    I mean this is kinda how it works, no? If someone thinks they see something they can fix, they’ll probably kick the tires and see what the asking price is. If it’s amenable, a trade is possible. More likely, everyone sees what we’ve seen over three starts and doesn’t want to give up anything of...
  14. Rwillh11

    4/9 Game 9: Tigers/Sox

    Do they have a better defense center fielder without movie Kiké off short? I don't think Tapia is an upgrade in center.
  15. Rwillh11

    Matt Barnes DFA'd, traded to Marlins for LH reliever Bleier

    This article is a pretty simplistic way to work through it - but the basic intuition is that FIP/xFIP/choose your metric are all much better at predicting the next year's ERA than ERA is. So, unless Brasier some weird outlier where what is a better predictor for the rest of the league isn't...
  16. Rwillh11

    Red Sox Rumors - Just Kidding

    I wouldn't read too much into a player's first press conference in a foreign country run through an interpreter. The Boras quote is a bit equivocal - he basically says that different teams place different values on different players and they put a higher valuation on Yoshida but not on...
  17. Rwillh11

    Red Sox Rumors - Just Kidding

    His stats in Japan are crazy good and the projections have him at a 3 WAR player or so next year. Obviously there is a wider range of outcomes, both positive and negative. But based on the projections, it's certainly fair value - the bigger question is whether or not they actually needed to go...
  18. Rwillh11

    Everton 22-23: Breakin' the Law

    Seems like we've loaned everyone out, except for I guess Broadhead. With Rondon suspended I guess Dele starts as a false 9? I can't see them throwing Broadhead in at the start, and they don't really have anyone else who could credibly play as a center forward.
  19. Rwillh11

    How do you feel about the past 20 years of John Henry and Tom Werner owning the team?

    Obviously we can't observe the universe where some other ownership team runs the Sox, but given general trends in sports watching (football becoming more dominant, NBA very popular among younger fans, the rise of soccer as another major sport) it's hard for me to pin any of this on ownership...
  20. Rwillh11

    Red Sox in season discussion

    That's a really tough question to answer. Just thinking about how prediction models are built, the good ones will be fairly accurate at predicting reversion to the mean. The idea is that you have a validation step in which you test your prediction on real data (which should include data where...
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