'19-'20 Warriors: who's left?

[Sam Ray Not]

Sparing the Heighword thread by addressing all your DLo/Warriors-related concerns here. Tread carefully!

Yeah, there’s no way that Minnesota, Milwaukee, or Philly decide that saving the Warriors is so important that they have to immediately break up their contender

Those are of course three vastly different franchises, with totally different priorities.

The Bucks are the league standard-bearer right now, with the league’s marquee player. There’s zero chance they ever move Giannis *unless* he declares he hates it there and refuses to extend. In that unlikely scenario, one would assume the Warriors would be high atop his wish list, given the allure of sunny CA / Silicon Valley $, the dream hoops fit of him with the Splash Brothers, and his friendship and shared agent with Steph (plus potentially a shared antipathy for self-styled ”King” James and his cadre of NBA in-groupers, whom you know Steph, Klay and Giannis would quietly relish destroying).

If Giannis did come available, there would almost certainly be more appealing offers than what the Warriors could muster; but as AD showed, players today can all but force their way onto their chosen team. I don’t think what NOP ended up getting for AD is that far beyond the best the Ws could come up with.

Philly’s a wild card; who knows what they’re thinking now about the Embiid/Simmons pairing, or how they view DLo. It does seem pretty clear that Embiid and Simmons are a suboptimal hoops fit; and for players who have essentially grown up together, they don’t seem particularly close personally, either. I’d bet a lot they break them up at some point. Hard to see them doing so for DLo plus a top 5 pick as soon as this off-season, but weirder things have happened. A lot I think will depend on how well the Sixers coalesce this season.

The one thing I don’t get is the implication here and in a couple of other posts that the Sixers — beyond wanting to improve their own team —would have any interest in sticking it to Golden State. Why ... because the Warriors once upon a time deserted Philly? If there’s any team the Sixers would want to stick it to to spite their face, it’s of course the Celtics ... and even there, they happily gave you Tatum and a top pick for Fultz.

Of the three teams cited, the Wolves seem like by far the most sensible landing spot for DLo. They’re going absolutely nowhere with their current core; they have a mediocre 32 y.o. PG in Teague who expires this season and needs replacing; and probably most importantly, their one franchise player is BFFs with DLo, and a natural hoops fit with him. I’d assume the impetus to keep KAT happy alone is enough to make Minny highly motivated to move anything and everything for DLo. I doubt the Ws would have any interest in Wiggins, but I’d assume they could get anything else they wanted from Minny (say, Covington, Okogie, a top pick, and Teague or Dieng as salary ballast). Maybe not the best GS could for DLo, but I’d consider it — Covington slots in really well at SF for them. And I’d bet a lot it’s on the table for GS when they want it, for all the concerns of DLo being ”cotton candy.” Speaking of...

the cotton candy of NBA guards.

Let’s see: he’s four inches taller than Kemba Walker, with six inches of wingspan on him. When Kemba was his age, he was nowhere near as good as DLo, in any respect: DLo’s a much better scorer than young Kemba by both volume and efficiency, a much better passer, much better three point shooter, and a better rebounder, with a better upside based on size alone (given similar positions, the marginal value in the NBA of four inches of height and six of wingspan is huge). There’s no guarantee he makes the leap in his mid 20s that Kemba did ... but if he’s cotton candy, what was young Kemba?

But I suspect that they’ll want to remove the stink of the tank season from their new venue and that they’re going to be aggressive in free agency this summer (because for the 73rd time, I’m not discussing a trade this year, I’m discussing Golden State re-tooling this summer since Russell’s contract gives them the ability to make a max signing).

To be clear, the only way they can add a max contract is by trading DLo (or Steph or Klay, haha). Totally agreed that they’ll be aggressive this summer, though, for the reasons you note. I like a lot of things about DLo, but think he’s a suboptimal allocation of resources on their roster as constructed. I’m still open to the possibility he makes the leap in defense and efficiency needed to stick around, but think it’s much more likely he gets moved, given the well-fitting Covington + Okogie as a fallback plan.

If Philly puts Ben Simmons on the market they can do light years better than D’Angelo Russell and a top 5ish pick.

This could well be true, though I’d be curious to hear which light-years-better packages you think Simmons could fetch. I’m gaga about Simmons as a potential fit with Splash Bros, but I think his lack of shooting (and FT shooting) make him a problematic fit on a lot of teams that don’t have the two greatest shooters ever. I can’t see him fitting that well alongside a ball-dominant superstar like LeBron, Harden or Doncic, for example. Which teams beyond GS do you think of as great fits for Simmons?

Yeah, with 5.5 years of control there’s a -3,857% chance that they deal him at all. And a -37,189,256% chance that they give him away to the Warriors.

Dangit, just as I’m trying to wrap my mind around why Philly should be especially motivated to bone the Warriors (see above), you want me to try to envision negative probabilities??

I find it funny that people are cooking up trades for the Warriors that net them a star player for D'Angelo Russell plus a pick that may or may not be valuable.

Hey we gave you McHale and Parish for a pick that ended up not being valuable, so deal with it! (Actually, I was “you” back then, but that’s another story, haha).

I like D Lo but he is a very flawed player and is about to turn 24. His usage is the highest of his career this season but he is still very feast or famine. His FG% is a touch above his career average however it is fairly low vs a guy who shoots as much as he does. And his shooting from deep has sagged a bit from last year as he has taken more shots. His rebounds and assists have fallen as well. His defense is poor too with the Warriors allowing almost a point more when he is on the floor while the opposing FG% goes up as well when he is not sitting. Some of this is a function on how barren the current Warriors squad is but the reality is, his offensive stats are essentially where they have been for a few years now if not worse.

Mostly agreed on the above, though I think you’re mildly overstating the case. Beyond the defensive shortcomings (which are less important in a PG), he’s not a “very flawed” player. He’s a great passer, floor general, and ballhandler and a good shooter, with great size for his position. If you believe in clutch, he’s also been one of the best players in the league this year with the game on the line. Per Anthony Slater’s recent column: “per minute, he has been the most potent “clutch” scorer in the NBA this season.”

1. Chris Paul: 21 clutch makes in 78 clutch minutes
2. Nikola Jokic: 19 clutch makes in 65 clutch minutes
3. Zach LaVine: 19 clutch makes in 80 clutch minutes
4. Donovan Mitchell: 18 clutch makes in 57 clutch minutes
5. Buddy Hield: 17 clutch makes in 56 clutch minutes
6. Joe Harris: 16 clutch makes in 74 clutch minutes
7. Kyrie Irving: 16 clutch makes in 44 clutch minutes
8. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 16 clutch makes in 76 clutch minutes
9. D’Angelo Russell: 15 clutch makes in ONLY 27 clutch minutes

Yeah, he’s been pretty “feast or famine” overall, but as you suggest, much of that may be due to acclimating to a whole new system, with inconsistent rotations consisting largely of babies and g-leaguers. Plus, as with KD, Kerr perpetually trying to balance his philosophical affection for motion offense with the desire to maximize the talents of a player with elite iso-ball/P&R skills.

As far as shooting efficiency, I assume you’re still high on 21 y.o. Jayson Tatum (and his trade value) despite his current, sub-par .522 true shooting? I know I am. I feel like one should extend the same benefit of the doubt to 23 y.o. DLo and his .540 TS, but YMMV.

Also in the realm of mild overstatement, DLo doesn’t turn 24 till February 23, 2020. Are position players “about to” report to Spring training? I hope so, cos January and February kinda suck.

I am not ready to give up on him yet but NBAGMs are a lot sharper these days and few teams are going to help Bob Myers turn D Lo into another superstar. He can certainly be the centerpiece of a trade but its going to take more than just him and a pick to get most of the names mentioned in this thread.

We shall see. Before he landed in GS, I was hot on the idea of DLo as a future Celtic (Kemba’s obviously the better player now, but I think DLo’s age and size make him a better fit with the Jays and Marcus Smart long-term) so I don’t think I’m being a total Warrior homer in thinking he still has solid positive value on the trade market. Poking around Wolves and Knicks boards, I’ve definitely seen a fair amount of sincere slobbering over him. Whether that translates into GM interest remains to be seen. Watch this space!

Edit: forward slashes and such. Multi-quotes on iPhone on a shaky bus trip are hard!

 

[nighthob]

The most potent clutch scorer on a team that wins one game in five and two bucks will get you a cup of coffee.

 

[Sam Ray Not]

The most potent clutch scorer on a team that wins one game in five and two bucks will get you a cup of coffee.

I mean, he was also the most potent clutch scorer (or 1a-1b with Dinwiddie) on a previously awful team that he helped lead to the playoffs. That plus being a 23 y.o. all-star PG with elite passing skills and a 6-10 wingspan gets you a cup of Covington and Okogie, at the bare minimum, imo.

 

[nighthob]

Sure, you could certainly get an elite roleplayer and Okogie from a team looking to appease their superstar player by trading for his BFF, and that’s a realistic target. But the Simmons talk is flat out hilarious.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

I am ok with referring to an event that will occur in six weeks as something that is "about to" happen. YRMV.

And I like D Lo. I don't think I overstated any case against him. I am simply noting that his numbers aren't where you would want them to be and aren't trending in the right direction either. I am a bit surprised as I expected him to build on last year, especially with a lot of usage for the Dubs.

 

[Sam Ray Not]

Sure, you could certainly get an elite roleplayer and Okogie from a team looking to appease their superstar player by trading for his BFF, and that’s a realistic target. But the Simmons talk is flat out hilarious.

Hogan seems more bullish on that possibility than I am; I allowed that it was a pipe dream. DLo aside, I do kinda doubt that Simmons plays out his current contract in Philly, tho, especially now with Thybulle looking like a budding wing stopper with a three ball, at a fraction of the cost of Simmons. My sense is that it’ll take at least a conference championship to keep the Simmons-Embiid core together, and I don’t really see that happening.

I mean, I‘m a big Simmons fan and want him on GS, so it’d be disingenuous of me not to think Philly values him similarly highly. At the same time, I think I’d covet him less if my two biggest stars were ball dominant bigs or wings as opposed to Steph and Klay. And I get the sense opinions on Simmons are pretty varied, at least based on Big John’s comments in the other thread. (Ditto re opinions on DLo).

For fun, assuming Philly wants to move on from Simmons, what kind of deals for him could you envision?

 

[benhogan]

The most potent clutch scorer on a team that wins one game in five and two bucks will get you a cup of coffee.

wait I thought the Knicks were sending pick-a-palooza for D.Lo to the Celtics?

a few Jane Austen references have tanked his value worse than Colin Firths'...

Or a three way deal with Hayward going to Golden State to help the tank job, Russell to New York for filler and a pick package going to Boston.

New York is full of expiring deals. And lottery picks in ‘21 and ‘22 would be valuable in case Memphis conveys this year.

 

[Sam Ray Not]

I am ok with referring to an event that will occur in six weeks as something that is "about to" happen. YRMV.

Are you okay with referring to 63 days as “six weeks”? I feel like the delta between 63 and 48 is about the same as the delta between where DLo’s numbers are and where I’d ideally want them to be. I do share your concerns about his on-off numbers, but it’s early times. 561 minutes, much of it with a jacked up hand, isn’t a huge sample.

Generally, I’m a little bearish on DLo’s fit on the Warriors, but find him a really fun and unique player to watch, with his cool, deliberate pace and smooth southpaw style — a bit like young Harden, without the brute strength and brutal efficiency. He also seems like a really likable and unpretentiousness dude — something I also gleaned from Nets fans after a few weeks dealing with the Kyrie experience. Wherever he ends up, I hope he does well (unless it’s the Lakers or Rockets, haha).

 

[lovegtm]

Hogan seems more bullish on that possibility than I am; I allowed that it was a pipe dream. DLo aside, I do kinda doubt that Simmons plays out his current contract in Philly, tho, especially now with Thybulle looking like a budding wing stopper with a three ball, at a fraction of the cost of Simmons. My sense is that it’ll take at least a conference championship to keep the Simmons-Embiid core together, and I don’t really see that happening.

I mean, I‘m a big Simmons fan and want him on GS, so it’d be disingenuous of me not to think Philly values him similarly highly. At the same time, I think I’d covet him less if my two biggest stars were ball dominant bigs or wings as opposed to Steph and Klay. And I get the sense opinions on Simmons are pretty varied, at least based on Big John’s comments in the other thread. (Ditto re opinions on DLo).

For fun, assuming Philly wants to move on from Simmons, what kind of deals for him could you envision?

The thing about Simmons is that even though evaluations of him differ, his low-end evaluations around the league are probably higher than DLo’s high end evaluations.

Putting a guy of Simmons age and talent, with 5.5 years under contract, on the block is so rare that I don’t really know where you’d start in terms of thinking of deals. So much would be on the table and teams would get really creative.

 

[benhogan]

The thing about Simmons is that even though evaluations of him differ, his low-end evaluations around the league are probably higher than DLo’s high end evaluations.

Putting a guy of Simmons age and talent, with 5.5 years under contract, on the block is so rare that I don’t really know where you’d start in terms of thinking of deals. So much would be on the table and teams would get really creative.

below is what I jokingly suggested yesterday morning in regards to a Ben Simmons fake trade

anytime Elton Brand wants Santa Bob to hand-deliver D.Lo/draft picks/ex-Nova greats for Ben Simmons just pick up the phone.

If we want to explore it further, sure I'll stand by it.

First off, nothing will happen until the summer (which I've said numerous times). Philly would have to continue to get booed at home this season and exit the playoffs early AND the Warriors would have to end up with a top 3 2020 pick.

D.Lo (who is worth two Knick lottery picks according to nighthob) +
a top 3 2020 pick +
2 future GSW 1st round picks +
Eric Paschall +
Omari Spellman

FOR

Ben Simmons, a very good defensive player, excellent ballhandler/distributor who is expensive. BUT can't/won't shoot from the outside, is Philly's 5th offensive option in the halfcourt and isn't exactly meshing well with Joel Embiid. They may get motivated in making a move if it gets contentious between Joel/Ben. That isn't a totally unfair return, they could do worse (like trade assets for Tobias Harris and then MAX him out)

Anytime nighthob wants to offer me odds of 3,857 to 1 that Ben Simmons, regardless of his contract length, isn't a 76er next season I've got plenty of action for him

Yeah, with 5.5 years of control there’s a -3,857% chance that they deal him at all. And a -37,189,256% chance that they give him away to the Warriors.

 

[nighthob]

wait I thought the Knicks were sending pick-a-palooza for D.Lo to the Celtics?

Sure, you can always rely on Knicks Mismanagement to do something Knicksy because they'd believe that the picks wouldn't be great. Try offering Mr. DARcy for Barrett and you'd be greeted by laughs. Put another way it's easier to let GMs can talk themselves into bad draft pick deals because those GMs usually believe in themselves enough to believe that improved performance is going to devalue the pick. It's harder to convince them to give up stars that have years of control.

For fun, assuming Philly wants to move on from Simmons, what kind of deals for him could you envision?

I know this is going to sound heretical, but I actually think they're better off moving on from Embiid. They'd get the same emperor's ransom, and I think that Simmons is the guy you build around in the pace & space era. I think it's easier to find some JJ Redick type guys to put around your 6'10" offensive QB that can guard four positions than to build a team around Embiid.

 

[lovegtm]

I know this is going to sound heretical, but I actually think they're better off moving on from Embiid. They'd get the same emperor's ransom, and I think that Simmons is the guy you build around in the pace & space era. I think it's easier to find some JJ Redick type guys to put around your 6'10" offensive QB that can guard four positions than to build a team around Embiid.

I actually agree with this. Imagine something like Embiid to the Pelicans for Ingram+lotto pick+the Lakers picks+Reddick and whatever else you want to throw in to make the haul ludicrous. That's a terrifying Philly team at that point, with tons of spacing and assets to move for an additional star.

(There a tons of possible Embiid trades to suit any taste.)

 

[Sam Ray Not]

I know this is going to sound heretical, but I actually think they're better off moving on from Embiid. They'd get the same emperor's ransom, and I think that Simmons is the guy you build around in the pace & space era. I think it's easier to find some JJ Redick type guys to put around your 6'10" offensive QB that can guard four positions than to build a team around Embiid.

Not heretical at all; I agree, for the reasons you note, plus my perpetual concerns for Embiid’s long-term health.

At the same time, everything I’ve read/heard suggests that among Sixers fans at least, Embiid is by far the more cherished of the two. He certainly has the more engaging and charismatic personality, for all his shenanigans. Who knows what the FO thinks, but I’d assume they’d be extremely loath to ever move the guy seen by their fans as the face of the franchise.

Paging London Sox...

 

[benhogan]

Paging London Sox...

Is it a weird coincidence that Eric jr, Still Balling, HonestAbe and London Sox all disappeared once Bryan Colangelo was fired?

Moving Embiid for a king's ransom over Simmons and surrounding Ben with shooting would be the better long-term decision. But I have zero respect for the 76ers front office. I expect them to do something short-sighted this summer if they get bounced early and the booing is incessant all season long. Simmons and his shooting will be the easy scapegoat.

Some Western Conf team will be the beneficiary of the 76er incompetence since they won't want to deal Ben to an EC competitor.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

Real Warriors trade talk: How about Alec Burks who they signed to the veteran minimum ($2.3mm) last summer?

For that, he is having a decent season as a bench scorer (fifth overall) and is widely expected to be available, especially when Curry and then Thompson return. He isn't amazing but seems to be playing his best after a journeyman NBA career with his top FG% and eFG%.

Tonight he helped the Warriors win their second game in a row and has been the team's most consistent scorer over the past month.

I will not be surprised if any of the Eastern contenders wind up with Burks (assuming Myers is inclined to deal him out of the conference). Myers netting a low first rounder out of Burks would be a pretty great outcome, given how this season has transpired.