2013 Jets: Rex back for 2014

Smiling Joe Hesketh · Nov 25, 2013

soxfan121 said:
No, I've seen enough. He blows donkeys.

That's Mascho.

soxfan121 · Nov 25, 2013

Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
That's Mascho.

mascho is Idzik? Idzik is mascho?

LACES OUT

Morgan's Magic Snowplow · Nov 25, 2013

soxfan121 said:
Idzik would be wise to admit his mistake and draft another QB. He won't get fired for that until the 2nd guy fails. If GENO doesn't improve, he's fired after next year anyway.

I don't think Geno is really "Idzik's guy" at all. They drafted him largely because he fell in the draft and their QB situation was so bad that it made sense to take a gamble on him and see what he had. They didn't draft him in the first or aggressively move up when it looked like another team might grab him at the top of the second, so I don't see much real commitment to him. And they're paying him relative peanuts, like all non first round picks.

Stitch01 said:
I still think its too early to completely write off Smith, his upside is way better than someone like Sanchez, but its a pretty big mistake to keep running him out there at this point this season.

It may be too early to completely write him off but the early returns are pretty awful. He is throwing interceptions or fumbling on over 7% of his times handling the ball (passes, sacks, runs combined), which is shockingly bad. I'd be interested to know whether any QB has ever turned the ball over at that rate in their rookie year and gone on to have success. I looked at both Peyton and Eli, two notorious cases of turnover prone rookie QBs, and Peyton was around 5% and Eli was around 6% in limited action.

Geno's supposed strengths, at least from a statistical standpoint, are also starting to disappear. His completion percentage and YPA have been falling for weeks and seem likely to eventually converge on Sanchez levels given that he's got the cold weather portion of the season yet to play.

Shelterdog · Nov 25, 2013

If I were running a shitty NFL team I'd draft QBs in round one or two or three every year until I hit a home run. The position's value is so high (and the value of a good QB on a rookie deal so incredibly high) that it's worth burning picks on that position.

What should be disconcerting about Smith's performance of late is that now that we're into the second half of the season and every team knows essentially what every other team is going to try to do he can't adjust: now that teams have figured out the fake read-option plays and which routes he likes to throw to he can't adjust.

Tony C · Nov 27, 2013

Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
I don't think Geno is really "Idzik's guy" at all. They drafted him largely because he fell in the draft and their QB situation was so bad that it made sense to take a gamble on him and see what he had. They didn't draft him in the first or aggressively move up when it looked like another team might grab him at the top of the second, so I don't see much real commitment to him. And they're paying him relative peanuts, like all non first round picks.

It may be too early to completely write him off but the early returns are pretty awful. He is throwing interceptions or fumbling on over 7% of his times handling the ball (passes, sacks, runs combined), which is shockingly bad. I'd be interested to know whether any QB has ever turned the ball over at that rate in their rookie year and gone on to have success. I looked at both Peyton and Eli, two notorious cases of turnover prone rookie QBs, and Peyton was around 5% and Eli was around 6% in limited action.

Geno's supposed strengths, at least from a statistical standpoint, are also starting to disappear. His completion percentage and YPA have been falling for weeks and seem likely to eventually converge on Sanchez levels given that he's got the cold weather portion of the season yet to play.

Who knows who is whose guy, I think the idea Geno is the Idzik guy is not just that he drafted him but that supposedly he was pushing for him to start over Sanchez during the pre-season. The sign of a smart organization is that there's no such thing as a favorite, just cold-blooded evaluation of what's best for the team. And, as you indicate, that may be the case here: Idzik didn't reach for Geno and pushing for him over Sanchez is only a stretch in Rex Ryan land where there is precisely that sort of outsized loyalty to his guy. I do think they should sit Geno for a bit both to let things calm down for him and because they are in a playoff race and Simms looks like a competent back-up type. I also agree that they should keep going to the QB well on draft day. That said, as awful as Geno is he's also a rookie with a bad cast around him who has shown flashes that, for example, Mark Sanchez never did -- I'm not sure he's hopeless yet.

RFDA2000 · Nov 27, 2013

Idzik absolutely should have been pushing for Geno to start whether he thinks he's the answer or not. Sanchez was not part of the Jets' long term plans, and they needed to evaluate Geno before this next class of QBs comes out. Maybe work him in part way through the season, but you would have had to be crazy, from an organizational standpoint, to start Sanchez all season long. Geno starting now has no relationship to how Idzik feels about him long term IMO.

crystalline · Nov 27, 2013

The knock on Geno before the draft was that he didn't have a good work ethic, and wouldn't improve.

That may be what we are seeing here. If so the Jets need to move on.

jon abbey · Nov 27, 2013

Ed Reed's teams are now 0-9 in games he's played this year, no idea why they benched Antonio Allen for him except pure nostalgia by Rex.

tims4wins · Dec 1, 2013

How long can Rex pull off his whole "offense isn't my responsibility" schtick and get away with it?

Tony C · Dec 1, 2013

It's not to say that HCs are generally equally good on both sides of the ball to observe that I've never seen a head coach get away with washing his hands of one side of the ball in the way that Rex does...and get away with it.

soxfan121 · Dec 1, 2013

Tony C said:
It's not to say that HCs are generally equally good on both sides of the ball to observe that I've never seen a head coach get away with washing his hands of one side of the ball in the way that Rex does...and get away with it.

Mike McCarthy and Sean Payton say hello, and offer you a glass of Chablis while you wait.

Tony C · Dec 1, 2013

class gents!

( . ) ( . ) and (_!_) · Dec 1, 2013

soxfan121 said:
Mike McCarthy and Sean Payton say hello, and offer you a glass of Chablis while you wait.

I know what are you saying. But what do McCarthy and Payton have that Rex doesn't?

JMDurron · Dec 1, 2013

An emphasis on the side of the ball that the current NFL rules are designed to enable?

I think that's actually the root cause of what you were referring to, anyway.

LogansDad · Dec 1, 2013

In the world of fun and useless stats, Geno's QB Rating over the last three weeks is 40.7. Combined.

Ralphwiggum · Dec 1, 2013

This team somehow beat the Pats and the Saints.

tims4wins · Dec 1, 2013

1 TD against 11 picks over his last 7 games. He is worse than Sanchize.

Salva135 · Dec 1, 2013

Ralphwiggum said:
This team somehow beat the Pats and the Saints.

And that's enough for a lot of Jet fans to scream extension. ESPN pegged them at 32 in the preseason power rankings, they've won 5 games, so Rex is working on his Coach of the Year speech.

soxfan121 · Dec 1, 2013

( . ) ( . ) and (_!_) said:
I know what are you saying. But what do McCarthy and Payton have that Rex doesn't?

Above average coordinators tending their "bad" side of the ball?

soxfan121 · Dec 1, 2013

JMDurron said:
An emphasis on the side of the ball that the current NFL rules are designed to enable?

I think that's actually the root cause of what you were referring to, anyway.

Actually, this is a better answer.

simplyeric · Dec 2, 2013

Shelterdog said:
If I were running a shitty NFL team I'd draft QBs in round one or two or three every year until I hit a home run. The position's value is so high (and the value of a good QB on a rookie deal so incredibly high) that it's worth burning picks on that position.

What should be disconcerting about Smith's performance of late is that now that we're into the second half of the season and every team knows essentially what every other team is going to try to do he can't adjust: now that teams have figured out the fake read-option plays and which routes he likes to throw to he can't adjust.

Why not one AND two AMD three? Like BB drafting TE's!

I feel like it would make more sense to use the 1st on other high talent, like defense or o-line, and use the second round to try to luck into something at QB. First round QB would be too expensive to just consistently gamble on unless
A. You are doing well spinning off your middling qb's for draft picks a couple years later
Or b. someone really dynamic falls in the draft so you're getting a high upside pick.
Which is basically what Geno is, no?

Super Nomario · Dec 2, 2013

BigSoxFan said:
Geno Smith never had a high upside. He was a "name" putting up fluff stats in a garbage conference.

The Big 12? Or the Big East? Which conference(s) are not garbage in your estimation?

NatetheGreat · Dec 2, 2013

It strikes me as almost inevitable that the Jets will continue to suck at least through next year, only to end up drafting Johnny Manziel.

Tony C · Dec 2, 2013

( . ) ( . ) and (_!_) said:
I know what are you saying. But what do McCarthy and Payton have that Rex doesn't?

And the correct answer, is, Alex: A Super Bowl ring.

Stitch01 · Dec 2, 2013

McCarthy is godawful on both sides of the ball and should deposit like 70% of his paycheck directly into Rodgers bank account. Awful in game decision maker and his team has completely collapsed. Rex is a better head coach, but that's not a high bar to clear.

Tony C · Dec 2, 2013

I don't know enough about McCarthy to comment, frankly. The point is that Rex Ryan is a career .500 coach with 2 Wild Card appearances with teams that have overspent on groceries and who, by all accounts, have given him considerable input on how to spend that grocery money, including on Sanchez and including picking Sparano as his OC. He has some great qualities -- as a DC and as a motivator -- and some very bad qualities -- particularly on the offensive side of the ball and in terms of having teams that seem to play on an emotional roller coaster, with the requisite dips. As with anything, if it works you're bullet-proof. When it doesn't, it's a cop-out to say that he doesn't control the offensive side of the ball -- he's the head coach.

I'm happy to have the Jets keep him -- he's both entertaining and an overall .500-ish mediocrity who will soon more be known for his teams' late season collapses rather than squeaking into the playoffs twice and winning games once in the playoffs. But if I'm Idzik I'm moving on and I frankly don't see the argument for keeping him. Yes there are worse coaches. But, yes, the Jets can do much better, as well. Why stick to what hasn't worked?

Shelterdog · Dec 2, 2013

BigSoxFan said:
Geno Smith never had a high upside. He was a "name" putting up fluff stats in a garbage conference.

Forget the stats look at the player. He's a good athlete with a really good arm so I for one can see the upside. The question is whether he can learn an NFL offense, read a defense, maintain poise, maintain throwing technique, make great decisions, etc. Those were all in doubt because he did play in a funky offense in a grabage conference but that doesn't mea it was known whether he could learn those skills are not.

The early results are fucking terrible but there's enough raw talent there to think that he had (and may even still have) high upside.

Tony C · Dec 2, 2013

That sounds about right, and is almost an ideal scenario. QB crisis and not a high enough pick to choose an elite QB prospect (but Johnny Football may be there, raising the Russell Wilson comparisons based on Idzik's Seattle connection), along with gaping holes all over the offensive side of the ball and secondary issues on the defensive side.

The only thing that has really gone right has been Sheldon Richardson looking like an elite pairing w/ Wilkerson.

Section15Box113 · Dec 2, 2013

And the correct answer, is, Alex: A Super Bowl ring.

Oh, I'm sore-y. We needed your response in the form of a question.

Stitch01 · Dec 2, 2013

Tony C said:
I don't know enough about McCarthy to comment, frankly. The point is that Rex Ryan is a career .500 coach with 2 Wild Card appearances with teams that have overspent on groceries and who, by all accounts, have given him considerable input on how to spend that grocery money, including on Sanchez and including picking Sparano as his OC. He has some great qualities -- as a DC and as a motivator -- and some very bad qualities -- particularly on the offensive side of the ball and in terms of having teams that seem to play on an emotional roller coaster, with the requisite dips. As with anything, if it works you're bullet-proof. When it doesn't, it's a cop-out to say that he doesn't control the offensive side of the ball -- he's the head coach.

I'm happy to have the Jets keep him -- he's both entertaining and an overall .500-ish mediocrity who will soon more be known for his teams' late season collapses rather than squeaking into the playoffs twice and winning games once in the playoffs. But if I'm Idzik I'm moving on and I frankly don't see the argument for keeping him. Yes there are worse coaches. But, yes, the Jets can do much better, as well. Why stick to what hasn't worked?

Just meant it as more of a tangent about McCarthy being really, really horrible and a decent data point that coaches worse than Rex have won Super Bowls and that the Jets have a real chance of changing to someone who is a downgrade at head coach.

McCarthy is a hot button for me, I sort of like the Packers and think they have massively underachieved under his watch. Kicking a short FG in OT on the first possession against Minnesota wasGrady/Pedro level bad (lesser stakes, obviously). Like bad enough that you could fire him simply based on what that decision says about his in-game decision making skills almost regardless of anything else.

Tony C · Dec 2, 2013

Section15Box113 said:
Oh, I'm sore-y. We needed your response in the form of a question.

and this from a guy who has been known to scream "moron" at guys who forget that...d'oh!

Stitch01 · Dec 2, 2013

SeoulSoxFan said:
Let's see how this prediction is working out almost 2 months later:

vs Pitt: W (4-2) > LOSS (3-3)

vs NE: W (5-2) > WIN (4-3)

at Cincy: L (5-3) > LOSS (4-4)

vs NO: L (5-4) > WIN (5-4)

at Buff: W (6-4) > LOSS (5-5)

at Balt: L (6-5) > LOSS (5-6)

vs Miami: W (7-5) > LOSS (5-7)

The two divisional losses at Buffalo and at home to Miami are real killers. And for upcoming games, I'll stick with the original prediction (updated W-L record):

vs Oak: W (6-7): Raiders travelling to Jersey for an early 1pm game is just the ticket to break the losing streak

at Car: L (6-8): Another road blowout loss seems inevitable

vs Clev: W (7-8): Weeden is not beating the Jets on the road

at Miami: L (7-9): Miami always plays well vs. Jets at home, playoff-hunting or not

So a lot closer to my original camp prediction of 6-10 than the more optimistic 9-7 record that happened right after the Falcons win.

7-9 should net somewhere in the 11th~16th pick range, where Idzik will be pressured to either pick another QB, or at a skilled position.

A middling record, no playoffs, and a genuine QB crisis is a pretty good early gift from Santa.

5-11 is more likely than 7-9. How exactly are the Jets scoring over 10 points this week? The offense is utterly broken and Smith is starting again.

Stitch01 · Dec 2, 2013

Right now Im seeing Oakland +2.5 with extra juice on the Jets, and the o/u is 40.5

Count me in to hammer this under and take Oakland and the points and money line and in every teaser imaginable. Jets giving points to anyone right now is insane. I think they're going to be 32nd in weighted offensive DVOA this week

soxfan121 · Dec 2, 2013

SeoulSoxFan said:
vs Oak: W (6-7): Raiders travelling to Jersey for an early 1pm game is just the ticket to break the losing streak

at Car: L (6-8): Another road blowout loss seems inevitable

vs Clev: W (7-8): Weeden is not beating the Jets on the road

at Miami: L (7-9): Miami always plays well vs. Jets at home, playoff-hunting or not

So a lot closer to my original camp prediction of 6-10 than the more optimistic 9-7 record that happened right after the Falcons win.

I've seen bits and pieces of their last few games - if they win again, I'll be really surprised. They sold themselves on a shot at the playoffs a few weeks back (mistakenly) and then let GENO have too much rope, which he has fashioned into a noose that he has hung himself with, leaving them Matt Simms. I might prefer Chris Simms or Phil Simms. They're not going to score and all four teams left on the schedule can score, even with their own QB issues. If they lose to Oakland, they lose out - Carolina will demoralize them and Cleveland has Josh Gordon and frisky defense.

I also think Miami's gonna get the 6 spot, which I would have NEVER thought possible a month ago. The Jets were fucked the moment Sanchez decided on surgery AFTER they put him on IR-return. Had he not gotten the surgery, he'd likely be back starting at QB and he'd be a massive upgrade on what GENO has been giving them. Think about that for a moment.

Jnai · Dec 3, 2013

This video on NFL.com is marked "Week 2013: Geno Smith Highlights":
http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap2000000290730/Week-13-Geno-Smith-highlights

Just watch it. Sums it up pretty well.

Morgan's Magic Snowplow · Dec 3, 2013

Jnai said:
This video on NFL.com is marked "Week 2013: Geno Smith Highlights":
http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap2000000290730/Week-13-Geno-Smith-highlights

Just watch it. Sums it up pretty well.

That video is brutal and its not particularly unfair. Geno's last 4-5 games is one of the worst extended stretches of QB play that I've ever witnessed. This is not even Sanchez-level bad, its 1998 Ryan Leaf bad.

ShaneTrot · Dec 3, 2013

ESPN Stats & Info ‏@ESPNStatsInfo 5m
NFL Passer Rtg quirk: If Nick Foles threw 50 straight INT, he'd still have higher NFL Passer Rtg than Geno Smith -- H/T to @RoobCSN

tims4wins · Dec 3, 2013

Holy shit that is actually correct

Bellhorn · Dec 3, 2013

ShaneTrot said:
ESPN Stats & Info ‏@ESPNStatsInfo 5m
NFL Passer Rtg quirk: If Nick Foles threw 50 straight INT, he'd still have higher NFL Passer Rtg than Geno Smith -- H/T to @RoobCSN

I'm not sure that's a "Passer Rtg quirk" as much as it is just another piece of evidence that Geno Smith fucking sucks.

OCST · Dec 3, 2013

I am trying to think of another NFL unit in my football watching history as inept as the 2013 Jets offense, and I can't.

Tony C · Dec 4, 2013

Not sure of the NY Post/Brian Costello's reliability, but Costello's sure not a big believer in the Rex didn't buy the groceries excuse for the offense

Ryan has had a huge say in personnel during his time here. One of the biggest criticisms of former general manager Mike Tannenbaum was he gave Ryan too much say in picking the players. Things don’t appear to have changed under John Idzik either. The Jets selected two defensive players in the first round of April’s draft, and they signed a washed-up Ed Reed three weeks ago because Ryan loves the guy.
...
But Ryan is like the guy who keeps fixing up his pool while the foundation of his house is crumbling. The Jets have not used a first-round pick on an offensive player since Mark Sanchez in 2009.
Anyone who questions Ryan’s influence in the draft room should read the new book “Collision Low Crossers” by Nicholas Dawidoff, who spent a year with the Jets and had tremendous access. In 2011, the Jets were preparing to make their final pick of the draft. The scouts wanted linebacker Nick Bellore. Ryan, Tannenbaum and top advisor Terry Bradway left the room. When they returned, Tannenbaum announced they were drafting wide receiver Scotty McKnight, who the scouts did not have a draftable grade on but was Sanchez’s childhood friend. Ryan had promised Sanchez he would take him and wanted to keep his word, infuriating the scouts.
You can blame Tannenbaum and Idzik for giving Ryan too much power, but don’t excuse Ryan for what this offense has become.

http://nypost.com/2013/12/04/rex-ryan-has-contributed-to-jets-offensive-woes/

2013 Jets: Rex back for 2014

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