2014 Celtics Offseason: Rebuilding Plans

The X Man Cometh · Apr 17, 2014

Depends what happens in the draft lottery.

If we want to retain Rondo we need to make some win-now moves. The best win-now move would be to trade a top 3 pick for a guy like Kevin Love.

If we get a top 3 pick? Trade it for Love, now we've got 2 stars. Fill holes, Rondo will resign, etc.

If we don't get a top 3 pick? There won't be any takers willing to part with Love or similar star power, and Rondo's not going to resign when we're 2 or 3 top players short. Might as well go sell mode and draft defense with flier potential on offense (Aaron Gordon and KJ McDaniels?).

Brickowski · Apr 17, 2014

I believe that Vitor Faverani is also signed for next year.

Cellar-Door · Apr 17, 2014

Can someone get to the airport and slip a large amount of cocaine into Wallace's carry-on.

TheDeuce222 · Apr 17, 2014

Good summary Curtis. Just one point on the Brooklyn draft pick. They ended up tied with Washington at 44-38, so there will be a coin toss tomorrow for who gets the #17 and who gets the #18. Draft order post-lottery is based on regular season record and won't change if the Nets advance a round or two. One way or the other, the pick will be locked in at 17 or 18 tomorrow.

I would also tend to disagree with X Man in terms of the value of a top 3 pick. I think Love will ultimately be had for someone for a deal that does not include a top 3 pick. If we were to offer Sullinger, the #5 pick, the Clippers 2015 pick and potentially Green to match up the contracts, I think that would be a very competitive offer. Furthermore, if the Celtics do "win the lottery" as it were, and get into the top 3, then I would not want to deal that pick for Love. I think that the potential, and the cost control for the next few years of a Wiggins/Parker/Embiid, is too good to pass up immediately by trading it. I agree with the sentiment though, that everything comes down to whether or not we get into that top 3.

Brickowski · Apr 17, 2014

The biggest issue is Rondo IMHO. Trade him or keep him? And if you keep him and he won't sign an extension, how much are you willing to pay if he hits free agency?

Kliq · Apr 17, 2014

Bradley is an intersting player, and I could go either way with him. At this point, I consider him a defensive specialist, who becomes a hell of a lot better when he is hitting the corner 3. That being said, anything more then $3-$4 million is pushing it with him. He has skills, but his skill set is pretty easily replaceable, I wouldn't worry about him leaving a big whole on the roster.

Cellar-Door · Apr 17, 2014

Rudy Pemberton said:
Is a team whose two best players are Rondo and Love actually any good, though?

If by good you mean the 7 seed in the east.... maybe?
I want no part of Kevin Love for the price it would cost.

Jed Zeppelin · Apr 17, 2014

Kevin Love would have to be so cheap that the other owners cry foul and demand action from Silver before I'd be interested in a team built around him and Rondo.

Rondo is a good player, but if Ainge makes desperation moves in order to make sure he stays then he isn't doing this right. Rondo isn't nearly good enough to hold the team hostage and I'm sure Ainge is aware of that.

Brickowski · Apr 17, 2014

Curtis Pride said:
I got the information from HoopsHype.com. However, according to Basketball-Reference.com, the Celtics have Faverani, Keith Bogans, and Phil Pressey signed for two more years. So you may be right..

I know that Bogans' last two years are non-guaranteed. I believe the same is true for Pressey (also Johnson and Babb). But I read somewhere that Faverani's second year is guaranteed.

As for Rondo, I think it's 50-50 if he stays or goes, but yes, drafting a pg like Smart or Exuum would make a Rondo trade more likely. I like Smart more than most folks here (assuming the C's don't get a top 3 pick).

jp9183 · Apr 17, 2014

We don`t have a second rounder it belongs to Dallas i believe

DourDoerr · Apr 17, 2014

A combo of Rondo and Love would guarantee mediocrity. Rondo's matador D coupled with Love's lack of rim protection would get burned by any team with a slasher or two. I don't get the Love fascination. Yes, he'd get you into the playoffs but he's not the defender you need for the amount of salary cap he'll take. Couple that with the assets needed to get him and it'd create an Eastern Minnesota.

If you can't get a guy who can score, shoot free throws and defend his position well, then you're better off staying at the bottom until you can draft one who can. Either way, that's the guy you build around.

Unless we do bring in a high profile player that Rondo likes, I'd guess he's gone. A desperation move to keep him would be trading for Josh Smith. Please no. And I love watching Rondo when he's engaged. A disengaged Rondo is another matter. With a young impressionable team, Ainge has to be sure Rondo will buy in. Any uncertainty and I think Ainge will trade him - even at a loss.

Scoops Bolling · Apr 17, 2014

What's the lowest pick anyone here would accept for Rondo?

Cellar-Door · Apr 17, 2014

Scoops Bolling said:
What's the lowest pick anyone here would accept for Rondo?

In a hypothetical where the other team could eat all of his salary and it was a straight Rondo for Pick Swap?

Probably 3.
Maybe 8.

I think Rondo is worth more that that, but you are talking about a big salary drop of 9-11M, and at least 4 years out of a guy plus RFA rights instead of 1 year.

Eddie Jurak · Apr 18, 2014

So the Celtics two most promising young guys are Sullinger and Olynyk. Both are power forwards, as are a few of the guys at the top of the draft.

Does one of them have to go, or is there a way to move forward with both on the team?

Brickowski · Apr 18, 2014

Second round picks can almost always be purchased for cash. I believe that's how Ainge obtained the pick used to select Colton Iverson (who, BTW, is another piece in the rebuilding puzzle, albeit a very minor one).

jimv · Apr 18, 2014

Eddie Jurak said:
So the Celtics two most promising young guys are Sullinger and Olynyk. Both are power forwards, as are a few of the guys at the top of the draft.

Does one of them have to go, or is there a way to move forward with both on the team?

I think they complement each other fairly well offensively - Sullinger more of a post presence and Olynyk more of a wing shooter. Defensively not so much - neither protect them rim all that well. A good defensive center would be important on a team that included Sully and Oly (of course you can say that about practically any team.....)

amfox1 · Apr 18, 2014

Curtis Pride said:
Now that the Celtics' season is over, they're tied with Utah for 4th in the lottery, and they also have the Nets' first-round pick. This is the current roster under contact for next season:

Draft Picks:
Lottery pick (anywhere from 1 to 8)
Brooklyn pick (17/18)

Boston lost the coin flip with Utah but Brooklyn won its coin flip, so Boston will pick 17th and will have one less ball in the lottery.

Eddie Jurak · Apr 18, 2014

They also won't have the 4th or 8th pick - they can get 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, or 7.

Eddie Jurak · Apr 18, 2014

Curtis Pride said:
They can get the 4th pick if Milwaukee, Philly, and Utah get the first three picks in some order.

Orlando would get #4 in that scenario.

Edit: But the C's could get #8. They could get 1,2,3,5,6,7 or 8, but not 4. And 8 is extremely unlikely. (Unless the powers that be really stick it to them in honor of David Stern.)

Devizier · Apr 18, 2014

If the Celtics can trade for Love and extend him without stripping their future draft picks, they need to do it. The odds of any player being better than Love in this draft are very slim, and the odds of the Celtics getting a player that even approach his level of talent are equally slim.

mcpickl · Apr 19, 2014

Devizier said:
If the Celtics can trade for Love and extend him without stripping their future draft picks, they need to do it. The odds of any player being better than Love in this draft are very slim, and the odds of the Celtics getting a player that even approach his level of talent are equally slim.

Extending Love is not a realistic option. The best they could do for him is extend him for two years, and to do that Love would have to waive his Early Termination Option for 2015-16. (I also think he may not be eligible to sign any extension at all til Jan 2015, since he signed this one on Jan 2012. Trying to find out on that)

Can't imagine any scenario Love is willing to do that.

I think it's best to assume if you're trading for Love, you're only guaranteed to have him for one season.

Brickowski · Apr 20, 2014

I agree with DourDoerr that a Love Rondo combination would be mediocre. But it's moot because IMHO he's going to an LA team at his earliest opportunity.

Obviously they need a defensive presence in the middle. There are some potential reclamation projects who will likely be hitting free agency this year, including Marvin Williams, Anthony Randolph and Derrick Favors, who might help fill that need. All have underperformed to date, but Favors, for one, has talent. There's also Okafor if he's healthy enough to play. There may also be trade possibilities (e.g. Larry Sanders, Mozgov).

wutang112878 · Apr 20, 2014

I think the best and easiest approach to the Rondo situation is wait and see. They tried to extend him to a non-max deal which would have been a good move, but it didnt happen. I dont think his trade value is particularly high especially with Dannys recent '20 out of 30 teams have their franchise PG', so moving him for decent value is difficult. I think the best solution is to let him hit free agency and retain his rights. I'd have to look at the teams with cap space but I think the list of teams who would have cap space for a max guy and need a PG and wouldnt be going after a better free agent than Rondo would be very, very small. Rondo will probably hit the market and his demand isnt what it is. I'd say each of these scenarios are about all as likely: Rondo finds a max deal from a team under the cap, Rondo finds a max deal from a team over the cap and we get something in a S&T or Rondo resigns here for less than the max. I also dont think Danny resigns him to the max, and the later of those 3 scenarios are goo for the Celtics, so I think its in our best interest to roll the dice and let him to to free agency.

As for Love, I want no part of him and Rondo. So we have the big question of 'can these 2 be your best players and you can be better than mediocre' but my issue is bigger than that. Can these guys even play together? Granted they'd be a great rebounding team but both have unorthodox offensive games, maybe Love's 3pt threat gives Rondo more room to operate but it really concerns me in your best 2 players you wouldnt have a 'give the ball to me with 5 seconds and I will get a good shot' guy. Also, at max dollars you have spent more than half your cap and dont have a defensive presence yet. I think that team could be very entertaining in a Nellie unconventional basketball type of way, but they just arent winning.

Now for some specific offseason plans:

Find a taker for Jeff Green, any taker for anything that gets his 15/16 option off the books. I think there really is a chance he exercises that and if thats off the books thats $10M they could use in free agency, thats important stuff. He also has no future here, and as he proved this year he isnt impacting this team. He also can not improve his value that is not happening he had all year to put up improved hollow numbers and he just cant do it, its not in him. He has no value, just dispose of him
Try to move Wallaces deal for any decreased financial commitment in AAV (very doubtful) but maybe you can find a team who would take on Wallace's 2/$20M and give up a 3/$21M. Maybe a 1% chance but just explore this option
Do not screw up your future cap. Do not use your MLE, its foolish for this team
Hope and pray someone will do some sort of minor S&T for Bradley
The draft is really going to provide the most impact for this team. Obviously the first pick is huge, but if Danny gets another contributor with that 2nd pick now you have a interesting young core of Sully, Olynyk, lottery pick + #17 and some valuable young assets
If you dont win the lottery, explore trading your pick and have the framework in place for a trade but dont trade it until you are on the clock. Its possible someone screws up and you get value at that pick, but chances are that isnt happening. Its really possible the best thing that can be done with that pick is to trade it. Kind of like the Sebastian Telfair draft, only this time we just need to get a good player

tbrown_01923 · Apr 20, 2014

Don't overlook a potential trade down of a couple of spots to pick up an early second or something like that. Say Gordon is their man and Randle and Smart are still on the board...

radsoxfan · Apr 20, 2014

Brickowski said:
Obviously they need a defensive presence in the middle. There are some potential reclamation projects who will likely be hitting free agency this year, including Marvin Williams, Anthony Randolph and Derrick Favors, who might help fill that need. All have underperformed to date, but Favors, for one, has talent.

Well Williams and Randolph stink, and I think they have been in the league long enough that we know that now. They also would not represent a defensive presence in the middle, even if they didn't stink.

Favors signed a 4 year/49M extension in October of this year.

Brickowski · Apr 20, 2014

radsoxfan said:
Favors signed a 4 year/49M extension in October of this year.

Yes, I see that now. Hoopshype's salary page hasn't picked it up yet.

Devizier · Apr 20, 2014

1) Hang tight, don't paint yourself in a "must do" corner with anything, including Rondo or Green.
2) No long term contracts this offseason, unless it's for Lebron.
3) Hope for Embiid, Parker, or Wiggins.

wutang112878 · Apr 20, 2014

tbrown_01923 said:
Don't overlook a potential trade down of a couple of spots to pick up an early second or something like that. Say Gordon is their man and Randle and Smart are still on the board...

Oh please no, I dont want us possibly missing on our guy to get a 2nd that you really could just buy at any time.

Devizier said:
1) Hang tight, don't paint yourself in a "must do" corner with anything, including Rondo or Green.

Is there any real reason to hang onto Green at this point? I hate the player but I genuinely do not understand what we have to gain by having him on the roster and there is the legitimate threat that he picks up that player option which would be a negative for this team. Maybe this shouldnt be a must do, but this would be one of my offseason goals if I was Danny

Devizier · Apr 21, 2014

The reason to hang on to Green is that the return probably involves a worse player or a worse contract. And I say this as someone who never liked Green as a player (college guy who is decent at a bunch of skills but has no plus individual skills) and hated his signing.

wutang112878 · Apr 21, 2014

I forget the thread but I argued vehemently that the Green signing has been a negative for the Celtics because we couldnt move him for an expiring tomorrow if we wanted to. The consensus that I eventually conceded to was that he could be moved for an expiring without much effort. I am still skeptical we could do that to be honest, but based on the assumption that we could thats why I would ship Green out yesterday.

Brickowski · Apr 21, 2014

Green is a side issue. As I've said above, Rondo is the issue and I don't agree with a "wait and see" approach. Ainge should shop Rondo as hard as he can. There is always a chance that some team will offer fair value.

You only let it play out to free agency if you can't get a decent offer. I could easily see the Lakers pursuing Rondo as a replacement for Nash, forcing the Celtics either to overpay or lose him for nothing.

Nick Kaufman · Apr 21, 2014

I don't mind a trade for Love as long as it's matched by a trade for a rim protector like Asik or Sanders and a trade or draft of an genuine exterior threat, like Wiggins. The resulting team would be interesting to watch although it would need time to develop.

wutang112878 · Apr 21, 2014

Brickowski said:
Green is a side issue. As I've said above, Rondo is the issue and I don't agree with a "wait and see" approach. Ainge should shop Rondo as hard as he can. There is always a chance that some team will offer fair value.

You only let it play out to free agency if you can't get a decent offer. I could easily see the Lakers pursuing Rondo as a replacement for Nash, forcing the Celtics either to overpay or lose him for nothing.

By fair value, I dont think you mean what he is worth on the market but what we would want for him. The reason Danny cant easily move him is because as he mentioned on the radio about 2/3rds of the league already has the PG they want, so his market is very limited. Which is why for the time being Rondo has more value here because trading him for pennies on the dollar doesnt really help you unless you want the team to bottom out more than they already have. Giving his contract situation, age and the current state of the franchise, I can almost guarantee you that Danny would trade Rondo in a heartbeat if he could get the value he wanted for him. Look at how close he was to trading Pierce in similar circumstances (team stunk and PP was getting towards the end of his prime) and Pierce was much easier to build around than Rondo

What would LA possibly offer that we would want? They have traded away a ton of picks, there isnt much talent on the roster. I dont see how that becomes a match

Brickowski · Apr 21, 2014

1. No, I mean fair market value. I don't think Rondo is a particularly good fit for the current Celtics' roster.
2. The Lakers aren't going to trade for Rondo. They are going to sign him as a free agent in the Summer of 2015, after Nash's contract has expired.

wutang112878 · Apr 21, 2014

So you'd be willing to move him for say a mid first rounder and a young non-elite type player like maybe an Eric Bledsoe? If you want to move him tomorrow, I think thats what you are looking at

Brickowski · Apr 21, 2014

wutang112878 said:
So you'd be willing to move him for say a mid first rounder and a young non-elite type player like maybe an Eric Bledsoe? If you want to move him tomorrow, I think thats what you are looking at

I don't think you could get Bledsoe for Rondo straight up, even if the salaries matched.

No, my thoughts are more modest, something like Rondo to Orlando for pick #12, Jameer Nelson (expiring) and Mo Harkless.

There's a 70% chance that the Celtics pick at #5 or lower, where the best player available is likely to be Exuum or Smart. Why keep Rondo around for a lame duck year and impede the development of your young pg? Makes no sense. It also makes no sense for Rondo to hang around for a 3-4 year rebuild.

mcpickl · Apr 21, 2014

wutang112878 said:
I forget the thread but I argued vehemently that the Green signing has been a negative for the Celtics because we couldnt move him for an expiring tomorrow if we wanted to. The consensus that I eventually conceded to was that he could be moved for an expiring without much effort. I am still skeptical we could do that to be honest, but based on the assumption that we could thats why I would ship Green out yesterday.

So if the Celtics offer Jeff Green to the Lakers for Steve Nash, your position is the Lakers say no?

Or to the Knicks for Bargnani?

Will never understand the hate for Green. Why are peoples'(especially the media) expectations for this guy so high? You can't get a great player in a trade for Kendrick Perkins. Wish people would quit expecting an All Star and accept him for what he is, a rotation guy.

Couldn't disagree more with the idea of not signing Green in the first place. Would've been a kick in the nuts to a team that just made conference finals to say we could go over the cap to sign Jeff Green as our first wing player off the bench, but nah we're gonna sign a vet minimum guy like Mikael Pietrus instead and save that money.

Don't see his possible pickup of 2015-16 as a huge issue either(also think if he's healthy, he opts out anyway). I doubt the Celtics can be a contender that quickly, so having him at 9M isn't going to make a huge difference.

Devizier · Apr 21, 2014

The problem with Green is that he got MLE plus money and is a lesser player than that. People expected more because of his draft status, but he was never better than decent as a pro. All this while having the specter of recent heart surgery over his head.

mcpickl · Apr 21, 2014

Devizier said:
The problem with Green is that he got MLE plus money and is a lesser player than that. People expected more because of his draft status, but he was never better than decent as a pro. All this while having the specter of recent heart surgery over his head.

Why is that a problem?

Didn't affect their cap one bit in the first two years, unlikely to do so in the next two years.

Don't worry about Wycs' wallet. He's doing just fine.

wutang112878 · Apr 22, 2014

mcpickl said:
So if the Celtics offer Jeff Green to the Lakers for Steve Nash, your position is the Lakers say no?

Or to the Knicks for Bargnani?

Will never understand the hate for Green. Why are peoples'(especially the media) expectations for this guy so high? You can't get a great player in a trade for Kendrick Perkins. Wish people would quit expecting an All Star and accept him for what he is, a rotation guy.

Couldn't disagree more with the idea of not signing Green in the first place. Would've been a kick in the nuts to a team that just made conference finals to say we could go over the cap to sign Jeff Green as our first wing player off the bench, but nah we're gonna sign a vet minimum guy like Mikael Pietrus instead and save that money.

Don't see his possible pickup of 2015-16 as a huge issue either(also think if he's healthy, he opts out anyway). I doubt the Celtics can be a contender that quickly, so having him at 9M isn't going to make a huge difference.

From a Lakers perspective, in 15/16 the only thing they have on the cap is Kobe. Even if the chance of Green picking up that option is 5%, yes I dont think they take that risk because its greater than the risk they have with Nash and its also possible they reach a buyout with Nash and his financial commitment is less than Greens.

As for Bargnani, from a risk perspective isnt Green worse for them? Green is guaranteed $9M next year and there is an option he might exercise for another $9M in 15/16. Bargnani has an $11M option he might exercise and then nothing. They would be spending an extra $2M for the small sliver of hope that they get out of Bargnani's deal next year, and take the small risk of Green exercising his for 15/16 when they only have $13M on the books. I dont see how thats really more attractive for them unless they just want a change but Green's also never getting on the court with Melo so from a basketball perspective I dont see it helping either.

If he picks up his option in 15/16 its not the end of the world, but spending $9M in salary for a rotation player who has played his best basketball on a bad team is a pretty useless waste of resources to me. Then you add in the $10M you are wasting on Wallace and ~1/3 of your cap is gone. In isolation those deals arent awful, but collectively they begin to hurt. Just a waste of cap space is a waste of team resources. The signing of Green was a short term gain (adding talent to a team with contention hopes) for a long term reduction in resources. I agree it was worth the risk, I am just pointing out there was a long term price to pay and we can squabble on how much that price was.

04101Seadog · Apr 22, 2014

I still come back to the Draft, and the final draft order having a huge bearing on what gets done with Rondo. While Danny says that 20 teams have their Franchise guard, the Lakers aren't one of them, and dependent on their pick I believe that is the play. If they don't win the lottery, I think the pick, Nash and maybe a future second for Rondo is how it goes down. Between Exum and Smart you have two guards going forward that could possibly fill his shoes, and Pressey showed flashes of being able to handle the starting job. It also allows us to go big with the other pick, or trade one of them down for extra assets. I think you see an already young team getting younger with the goal of having them gel and be a contender in 2-3 years having a core like:

pg: Exum
sg: Bradley
sf: Gordon
pf: Sullinger
c: Olynyk

Might be a fun team to watch.

While rondo is saying all the right things so far, I am not sure he fits with the teams plans going forward and if you wait for him to test free agency you risk losing him for nothing. The team didn't perform awful w/o him (at least in the East) so if I was in danny's shoes I'd see what you can get at draft time and go from there.

I also don't think we are done with the Asik talk, as we need a rim protector badly and his name has just come up too many times for something to not happen.

Devizier · Apr 22, 2014

mcpickl said:
Why is that a problem?

Didn't affect their cap one bit in the first two years, unlikely to do so in the next two years.

Opportunity cost.

Statman · Apr 22, 2014

Devizier said:
Opportunity cost.

What opportunities are you referring to? Having Green's $9.2M salary on the books for the next two years isn't going to affect the Celtics one iota because there is a zero chance that they are going to be able to sign a premier free agent (i.e., Melo) after this season (or the next).

Having salary cap room is overrated unless a team gets lucky like Houston and basically robs another team of a very good player, thus setting the table for a top free agent to take LESS money to sign with them.

Ask Detroit how having a ton of cap space worked out for them.

mcpickl · Apr 22, 2014

Devizier said:
Opportunity cost.

What opportunity cost? I don't see it. You're going to have to give me examples of what that opportunity cost could possibly be/would've been.

They couldn't have used the money on anyone else two years ago, and as Statman said above I can't imagine many free agents are going to be beating down their door over the next two years to sign here.

2014 Celtics Offseason: Rebuilding Plans

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